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us stock market, stock split
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
In each report we prepare full write-ups for those plays that look ready to move. Those that have made the move or are still setting up are discussed in the continuing play table. The purpose is to focus on those stocks that are set to move.
NEW PLAYS: This section includes plays from all sections other than pre-announcements. Those are contained in the pre-announcement section.
New Pre-Split Plays:
Play Date: 05/06/2004
SFCC (SIBC Intl.--$37.18; +0.10; no options): Research services. Splits 3:2 on 6-1-04
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sfcc.html
STATUS: Flying plateau. Working laterally the past week on mostly lower volume after a strong surge to end April that took the stock out of its 7 month base. It has held over the 10 day EMA (36.01) as it consolidates; a stock that refuses to give up its gains after such a move and particularly in market selling shows the stock's strength. Tapped the 10 day on the low and rallied back Thursday. Looks as if it is ready to make the move. Excellent money flow. An 'A' rated stock in terms of pattern and earnings and sales growth.
Volume: 80.273K Avg Volume: 96.863K
BUY POINT: $38.12 Volume=145K Target=$43.55 Stop=$35.65
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/sfcc.html
New Leader Plays: May not turn into a split play but a solid stock.
Play Date: 05/06/2004
AMI (Alaris Medical--$20.77; -0.36; no options): Medical appliances
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/ami.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. AMI looks to be starting the handle to its 11 week base, a nice cup that formed over the 200 day SMA (17.54), using that key support on the base lows. Volume has rallied the past two weeks as AMI moved up to form the right side of the base, just what you want to see. Now it needs to ease laterally for a few days and then make a high volume breakout. Solid 5 to 2 accumulation (5 up price weeks on rising volume to 2 down price weeks on rising volume) in the pattern, showing that money is moving into the stock as it bases. Just being patient and waiting for the handle to form and then the high volume move through the buy point. Excellent money flow moving up ahead of price.
Volume: 229.3K Avg Volume: 175K
BUY POINT: $21.42 Volume=262K Target=$25.68 Stop=$19.92
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ami.html
Play Date: 05/06/2004
NXTP (Nextel Partners--$14.87; +0.06; optionable): Wireless communications
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nxtp.html
STATUS: Cup. We have been watching NXTP for three weeks now. It ahs formed a 4 month base over the 50 day EMA (13.23), really jumping this week after a shakeout in late April. Excellent 6 to 1 accumulation in the base. It has rallied back up to the prior high that started the base and now may move laterally to form a handle to the pattern. We are ready for either a handle where it moves laterally for a few days and then breaks higher or a breakout from here. Either way it is a solid pattern with surging money flow and relative strength already making the breakout.
Volume: 3.565M Avg Volume: 1.967M
BUY POINT: $15.09 Volume=3M Target=$18 Stop=$14.03
POSITION: KTU HC - Aug. $15c (53 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/nxtp.html
Play Date: 05/06/2004
PCSA (Airgate--$19.42; -0.24; no options): Domestic telecom services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pcsa.html
STATUS: cup w/handle. Very nice 10 week base has formed roughly at the 50 day EMA (17.56), a sign of strong support at this key level. Accumulation in the base is positive at 3 to 2, money flow is solid and moving up ahead of the stock. A very nice, tight handle is forming over the 10 day EMA (19.17) on mostly lower, below average volume. Another A rated stock in terms of pattern and fundamentals.
Volume: 31.981K Avg Volume: 75.727K
BUY POINT: $20.62 Volume=114K Target=$24.75 Stop=$19.12
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/pcsa.html
Continuing Leader Plays: New buy point.
Play Date: 04/29/2004
ALOG (Analogic Corp.--$47.73; -0.37; no options): Scientific & technical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/alog.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Continues to work on its handle on very low volume as money flow continues to rise sharply ahead of price. Just have to be patient with this stock; great pattern, but takes time. Nice 5 week handle to its 7 month base sporting solid 8 to 5 accumulation.
Volume: 62.221K Avg Volume: 105.272K
BUY POINT: $50.28 Volume=159K Target=$57.85 Stop=$48.05
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/alog.html
Play Date: 05/05/2004
IDSY (I.D. Systems--$10.08; +0.27; no options): Telecom equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/idsy.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Tapped the 10 day EMA (9.41) on the low and rebounded to post a gain on rising though below average volume. IDSY exploded out of its 6.5 month base on Monday, jumping off the 10 day EMA on huge trade. Accumulation in its base is a strong 10 to 3. Money flow is still running higher ahead of price. Made the test and now looks ready to continue the breakout move.
Volume: 89.366K Avg Volume: 82.363K
BUY POINT: From here: $10.22. Test 9.50: 9.78 on the way back up. Volume=123K Target=$12.32 Stop=$9.48
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/idsy.html
Play Date: 05/05/2004
MUR (Murphy Oil--$69.14; -0.84; optionable): Oil & gas refining, marketing
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mur.html
STATUS: Test breakout. Still working laterally in the handle to its 4 month cup base and is now ready to move higher after a test. Super 6 to 1 accumulation (6 up price weeks on rising volume to 1 down price week on rising volume) in the base, setting up a good foundation for a breakout. Being patient and letting it complete this lateral move over the 10 day EMA (67.91). Just looking for a breakaway volume move.
Volume: 464K Avg Volume: 484.954K
BUY POINT: $70.98 Volume=750K Target=$81 Stop=$67.42
POSITION: MUR HN - Oct. $70c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/mur.html
Play Date: 05/04/2004
OCLR (Ocular Sciences--$29.78; +0.46; optionable): Medical Instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/o/oclr.html
STATUS: Cup. Volume is jumping, showing us 'get ready' spikes this week as OCLR tests its 50 day EMA (28.68) and bounces up off that level each session. Accumulation in the base is already an excellent 4 to 1 (4 up price weeks on rising volume to 1 down price week on rising volume), showing us that money has been moving solidly into the stock during the base. Surging money flow is pointing the way, and this volume is telling us to get ready for the breakout.
Volume: 252.584K Avg Volume: 105.227K
BUY POINT: $30.12 Volume=160K Target=$34.55 Stop=$28.01
POSITION: QLO JF - Oct. $30c (49 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/oclr.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
Current Pre-Announcement Plays: In each report we look at the candidates that are in the best patterns ahead of their potential announcements. This focus on leaders in good patterns allows us to make good money even if companies do not announce the split, something that they are still gun-shy of even after the market has made a good recovery as well as the economy. The key with splits now is in the pattern; yes there is a positive move on the announcement, but stocks in this market need to have a good pattern of accumulation to really benefit from a split announcement.
AGN: Researching the next date.
APOL: Forecast 6-12-04 before the open.
BIO: Forecast 5-6-04 after the close. Crushed earnings by 6 cents but no split seen yet.
BMET: Researching next date.
CHS: Forecast 5-27-04 after the close. Struggling on the retail sales results.
CRL: No announcement 4-28-04, but holding up well for the next move.
CWTR: Forecast 5-26-04.
DGX: No announcement 4-22-04 but continues to hold up well, setting up for the breakout.
ESRX: Forecast 5-26-04 with its shareholder meeting.
FWRD: No announcement 4-27-04. Continues the nice pattern.
GTK: Forecast 6-18-04.
HUG: Forecast 5-25-04 after the close.
IDXX: Researching next date.
LM: Struggling and moving below support at 90.
LXK: Researching the next split date as it tests the 50 day EMA.
PDCO: Mid-May, 2004.
POOL: Forecast 5-6-04 in conjunction with the shareholder meeting. No split announced Thursday.
QCOM: Forecast 5-3-04 with a board meeting. Trying to hang on at the 50 day EMA.
RS: Forecast 5-19-04.
STJ: Researching the next date, but looks excellent with its 7 week cup with handle base.
STN: Looking for next date.
UOPX: Forecast 6-24-04 before the open.
VAR: Did not announce with earnings, and it is struggling to hold the 50 day as volume has really turned choppy. Needs to settle down and then start the move again.
WFMI: Forecast 5-5-04 after the close. No split but super earnings
ZBRA: Keeps moving higher up the 18 day EMA.
ZMH: No split announced 4-26-04. Holding the 18 day EMA still but it has lost its momentum for now.
Full Write-ups: We do not cover all candidates in full in each report, but focus on those ready to make a move or are right at their forecast announcement date. This way we are focused on those stocks ready to make moves.
Continuing Pre-Announcement Plays:
Play Date: 05/04/2004
FLIR (Flir Systems--$45.77; -0.63; optionable): Scientific & technical instruments. No exact date yet, but a nice breakout test underway.
BACKGROUND: Last split 2:1 on 5-30-2003.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/flir.html
STATUS: Breakout test. FLIR exploded out of a 13 week flat base 2 weeks back, surging to 50 on strong trade. It has come back in the recent market selling, but doing so on lower and lower volume, tapping at the 18 day EMA (44.60) on the low and rebounding. Solid 5 to 3 accumulation in the pattern (5 up price weeks on rising volume to 3 down price weeks on rising volume), indicating money was moving into the stock during the base. We really like the first test of a breakout as it 'proves up' the breakout from the base. This one can turn into another preannouncement for us, but it is also in an excellent pattern.
Volume: 419.255K Avg Volume: 360.954K
BUY POINT: $46.62 Volume=577K Target=$53.62 Stop=$45.22
POSITION: FFQ GI - July $45c (61 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/flir.html
Play Date: 04/09/2004
SCSC (Scansource--$53.91; -0.37; optionable): Wholesale computers. No split announced in April, but an excellent test of the base.
BACKGROUND: Split 3:2 in January 2003 at a price of $55.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/scsc.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Tapped the 18 day EMA (52.78) on the Thursday intraday low and then rebounded to close at the 10 day. A very nice fill of the gap higher two weeks back, and now SCSC has tested and is ready to continue the run higher. Money flow remains excellent, and we are looking for a resumption of the move to break it further out of the 15 week base.
Volume: 171.401K Avg Volume: 130.045K
BUY POINT: $56.36 Volume=175K Target=$65 Stop=$52.41
POSITION: UHI FK - June $55c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/scsc.html
Play Date: 05/01/2004
UOPX (University of Phoenix Online--$87.42; +0.76; optionable): Education and training. Forecast 6-24-04 before the open in conjunction with earnings.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 4 for 3 split on 4-5-02 at a stock price of $38.95. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/u/uopx.html
STATUS: 50 day EMA test. Starting up off the 50 day EMA (86.12) on rising, average volume Thursday as UOPX easily held important support. Looking for a more aggressive entry on a move over the 18 day EMA (88.34).
Volume: 213.059K Avg Volume: 183.272K
BUY POINT: Aggressive: $88.65; Next buy point: $90.25 Volume=285K Target=$103 Stop=$89.12
POSITION: UBY IR - Sept. $90c (44 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/uopx.html
PRE-SPLITS
Play Date: 04/29/2004
BCR (C.R. Bard--$107.74; -1.27; optionable): Medical instruments. Splits 2 for 1 on 6-1-04.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bcr.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Continues to hold over the 10 day EMA (107), moving laterally on mostly below average volume. It is holding the break higher from two weeks back, holding up well as the market sold. It is well positions for a break to the upside if the market puts together a bit more strength.
Volume: 316K Avg Volume: 366.454K
BUY POINT: New: $108.75 (orig. $107.25) Volume=600K Target=$120 Stop=$103.22
POSITION: BCR GA - July $105c (62 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/bcr.html
Play Date: 05/01/2004
IEX (Idex--$46.91; -0.24; optionable): Machinery. Splits 3:2 on 6-1-04
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/iex.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Still holding the 10 day EMA (46.92) as it tests the breakout. IEX raced higher two weeks back on strong trade, and during the market selling moved laterally and slightly lower on fading volume. That shows very few sellers as it culls out the short term profit takers. It is now set to continue the breakout move. Excellent relative strength.
Volume: 178K Avg Volume: 137.363K
BUY POINT: $47.78 Volume=218K Target=$53 Stop=$46.32
POSITION: IEX GI - July $45c (82 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/iex.html
POST-SPLITS
Play Date: 05/04/2004
TRMB (Trimble Navigation--$26.6; -0.34; optionable): Scientific & technical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/trmb.html
STATUS: Cup with handle breakout. After the solid volume break higher Tuesday, TRMB has come right back to test the move, but volume has backed off and it is holding its gains, a good indication of strength remaining in the stock. Thursday it tapped at the 10 day EMA on the low (25.83) and then rebounded. Again, an excellent pattern with good price/volume action and solid 5 to 3 accumulation in the base. Money flow is solid and relative strength is making the breakout move.
Volume: 418.29K Avg Volume: 411.545K
BUY POINT: $27.32 Volume=670K Target=$31.42 Stop=$25.41
POSITION: TUH HE - June $25c (69 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/trmb.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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us stock market
stock split
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