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us stock market, trading system
Begin part 2 of 3
THE PLAYS
In each report we prepare full write-ups for those plays that look ready to move. Those that have made the move or are still setting up are discussed in the continuing play table. The purpose is to focus on those stocks that are set to move.
NEW PLAYS: This section includes plays from all sections other than pre-announcements. Those are contained in the pre-announcement section.
New Pre-Split Plays:
Play Date: 05/08/2004
SSP (E.W. Scripps--$103.01; -0.10; optionable): Newspapers. Splits 2:1 on a date yet to be announced.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/ssp.html
STATUS: 50 day EMA test. Broke from a short 6 week flat base in early April and rallied to 109. It has come back with a good test, pulling back to the 50 day EMA (102.35) on lower, below average volume as the rest of the market sold on higher trade. Friday SSP showed a nice, tight hammer doji over the 50 day and above additional price support at 102.50. Looking for a strong volume bounce from here to move in and capture the next move. Strong stocks use the 50 day EMA as the terminus of a pullback, and institutions owning the stock often 'stock up' on it at this point. Thus we are looking for high volume on a bounce higher as a sign that big money is moving back in.
Volume: 86.7K Avg Volume: 182.759K
BUY POINT: $104.78 Volume=225K Target=$112 Stop=$103.72
POSITION: SSP IA - Sept. $105c (43 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ssp.html
New Post-Split Plays:
Play Date: 05/08/2004
BLUD (Immucor--$24.50; 0.00; optionable): Diagnostic substances
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/blud.html
STATUS: Breakout test. BLUD leaped higher in late April on an FDA approval, gapping higher and racing above 28. During the recent market selling BLUD has eased back on low trade, holding most of the breakout as it settles over the 10 day EMA (24.11), trading in a narrow range. It is riding out the selling basically moving laterally as the market sells. This is what strong stocks do, holding up relatively well as most stocks sell. Once this is over, BLUD will be ready to continue its move on the breakout.
Volume: 111.585K Avg Volume: 335.346K
BUY POINT: $25.62 Volume=500K Target=$30 Stop=$23.92
POSITION: QMQ IE - Sept. $25c (53 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/blud.html
Play Date: 05/08/2004
GPRO (Gen Probe--$37.76; -1.51; optionable): Diagnostic equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gpro.html
STATUS: Cup. We are looking at GPRO once again as it comes back late last week to test the breakout from its shallow 15 week cup base. It has formed up well heading into late April, but sold through the recent lows in the pattern on low volume as the rest of the market distributed. It checked up and rebounded on sharp trade to start May. It is testing that move, coming back Friday on lower volume. Accumulation in the pattern is positive and money flow has surged up ahead of price. Relative strength broke out on last week's price breakout, a sign of a solid move. Looking for GPRO to check up at the 10 day EMA (37.05) and then rebound on rising volume to continue the breakout move.
Volume: 822.639K Avg Volume: 599.5K
BUY POINT: $38.25 Volume=900K Target=$44 Stop=$36.25
POSITION: PSU HG - Aug. $35c (66 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/gpro.html
Play Date: 05/08/2004
IRM (Iron Mountain--$44.90; -0.20; optionable): Business management services (document storage)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/irm.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. A very nice, orderly handle is forming to the 8 week base as IRM fades to tap the 18 day EMA (44.55) on the intraday low and rebounding to close. The base formed over the 50 day EMA (43.99), a sign of strength as big money stepped in to support that stock at that level. Strong money flow is leading higher ahead of the price and relative strength is ready to make the breakout as well. Volume was up Friday as IRM tested the 18 day EMA and rebounded. Getting ready for the breakout move.
Volume: 231.4K Avg Volume: 277.856K
BUY POINT: $46.02 Volume=417K Target=$52.95 Stop=$44.38
POSITION: IRM JI - Oct. $45c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/irm.html
Continuing Leader Plays:
Play Date: 04/29/2004
ALOG (Analogic Corp.--$48.05; +0.32; no options): Scientific & technical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/alog.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Volume jumped back above average Friday as ALOG peeked over the 10 day EMA (48.19) but retreated by the close. It is getting ready for the breakout move from its very nice 7 month base and orderly handle. Accumulation is solid at 8 to 5 (8 up price weeks on rising volume to 5 down price weeks on rising volume), and money flow continues to rise ahead of the price. We are being patient and letting it complete the base and show us the breakout.
Volume: 131.038K Avg Volume: 107.664K
BUY POINT: $50.28 Volume=159K Target=$57.85 Stop=$48.05
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/alog.html
Play Date: 05/06/2004
AMI (Alaris Medical--$20.57; -0.2; no options): Medical appliances
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/ami.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. AMI continues the handle to its 11 week base, easing back on lower, below average trade Friday. This is very good action in the base, shaking out the last sellers. Very solid 5 to 2 accumulation (5 up price weeks on rising volume to 2 down price weeks on rising volume) in the pattern, and strong money flow is surging higher ahead of the price. Very nice pattern shaping up in a very solid sector.
Volume: 156.4K Avg Volume: 182.704K
BUY POINT: $21.42 Volume=262K Target=$25.68 Stop=$19.92
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ami.html
Play Date: 05/01/2004
ARIA (Ariad Pharma--$11.57; -0.08; optionable): Cancer drugs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/aria.html
STATUS: Breakout test. ARIA is one of the cancer drug biotechs that exploded higher in the biotech binge two weeks back. ARIA has solid back with the market, but is holding its breakout over the 18 day EMA (11.42), easing along that level the last half of last week on very low, below average volume. Friday ARIA showed a nice, tight doji at that level, often an indication that a pullback is over. Looking for a nice volume surge as the stock rebounds off this level.
Volume: 496.1K Avg Volume: 952.819K
BUY POINT: $12.12 Volume=1.4M Target=$14.55 Stop=$11.27
POSITION: UAQ HV - Aug. $12.50c (49 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/aria.html
Play Date: 05/04/2004
OCLR (Ocular Sciences--$29.44; -0.34; optionable): Medical Instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/o/oclr.html
STATUS: Cup. Volume shot higher to end the week, ready to make the breakout move. Friday it rallied to 30.35 but gave the move back. It is chomping at the bit, ready to make the breakout move from the 15 week base that formed over the 50 day EMA (28.72). Accumulation is an excellent 4 to 1 (4 up price weeks on rising volume to 1 down price week on rising volume), showing us that money has been moving solidly into the stock. Surging money flow continues to push higher ahead of price. Looks excellent.
Volume: 321.677K Avg Volume: 111.659K
BUY POINT: $30.12 Volume=160K Target=$34.55 Stop=$28.01
POSITION: QLO JF - Oct. $30c (49 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/oclr.html
Play Date: 05/06/2004
PCSA (Airgate--$19.29; -0.13; no options): Domestic telecom services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pcsa.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Still in the handle of the 10 week base though action was a bit wild Friday, tapping near the 18 day EMA on the low (18.30) and rebounding to close just over the 10 day EMA. Accumulation in the base is positive at 3 to 2, money flow is solid and moving up ahead of the stock. Another A rated stock in terms of pattern and fundamentals.
Volume: 56.649K Avg Volume: 75.59K
BUY POINT: $20.62 Volume=114K Target=$24.75 Stop=$19.12
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/pcsa.html
Play Date: 05/04/2004
SSTI (Silicon Storage Tech--$14.27; -0.12; optionable): Semiconductor memory chips
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/ssti.html
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. Testing the breakout from a 17 week cup base formed along the 50 day EMA (13.73). It broke out in early April and surged well over 16, now coming back and testing key support at the 50 day. Accumulation in the base was solid at 6 to 4. Friday volume was jumping back to average as SSTI feinted toward a breakout. It backed off as the market sold off in the afternoon, but it still looks ready to move higher from here after this test.
Volume: 2.257M Avg Volume: 2.191M
BUY POINT: $14.58 Volume=3M Target=$17.52 Stop=$13.56
POSITION: SSU GC - July $15c (46 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ssti.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
Current Pre-Announcement Plays: In each report we look at the candidates that are in the best patterns ahead of their potential announcements. This focus on leaders in good patterns allows us to make good money even if companies do not announce the split, something that they are still gun-shy of even after the market has made a good recovery as well as the economy. The key with splits now is in the pattern; yes there is a positive move on the announcement, but stocks in this market need to have a good pattern of accumulation to really benefit from a split announcement.
AGN: Researching the next date.
APOL: Forecast 6-12-04 before the open.
BIO: No split announced on 5-6-04. Holding at the 50 day and not giving us an entry point.
BMET: Researching next date.
CHS: Forecast 5-27-04 after the close. Still struggling after release of same store sales.
CRL: No announcement 4-28-04. Still moving laterally
CWTR: Forecast 5-26-04.
DGX: Researching next date and waiting for the breakout.
ESRX: Forecast 5-26-04 with its shareholder meeting.
GTK: Forecast 6-18-04. Waiting to see if it will give us the next entry, but struggling as it slips below the 50 day.
HUG: Forecast 5-25-04 after the close.
IDXX: Researching next date.
LXK: Researching the next split date as it tests the 50 day EMA.
PDCO: Mid-May, 2004.
POOL: No split announced at the shareholder meeting Thursday and slipped below the 18 day EMA Friday.
QCOM: No split announcement on 5-3 and struggling at the 50 day EMA.
RS: Forecast 5-19-04. Big dump lower as the pattern starts to break apart.
STJ: Researching the next date, but looks excellent with its 7 week cup with handle base.
UOPX: Forecast 6-24-04 before the open.
VAR: Slid below the 50 day EMA while waiting for the split announcement.
WFMI: Forecast 5-5-04 after the close. No split but super earnings
ZBRA: Keeps moving higher up the 18 day EMA.
ZMH: No split announced 4-26-04. Holding the 10 day EMA on lower trade.
Full Write-ups: We do not cover all candidates in full in each report, but focus on those ready to make a move or are right at their forecast announcement date. This way we are focused on those stocks ready to make moves.
New Pre-Announcement Plays:
Play Date: 05/08/2004
URBN (Urban Outfitters--$46.31; -1.33; optionable): Apparel stores. Forecast to announce a split 5-13-04 at 11:00 in conjunction with earnings.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for 1 split on 8-14-03 in conjunction with a board meeting. The stock price was $46.50.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/u/urbn.html
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. URBN reported an outstanding 32% surge in same store sales, but the market was not ready for good news late in the week. It spent the last two sessions selling down to the 50 day EMA (45.95), closing just over that level Friday. It has been a torrid run for URBN in starting in March 2003, running up the 50 day without many pauses. It is thus a bit extended longer term, but has moved laterally the past 5 weeks over the 50 day, trying to set up for another move. We are looking for a solid volume move through the buy point to enter. It is a solid stock, but after this run if we get a nice run and it reversed, we won't stay around.
Volume: 638.174K Avg Volume: 648.114K
BUY POINT: $48.72 Volume=972K Target=$56 Stop=$45.55
POSITION: URQ IJ - Sept. $50c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/urbn.html
Play Date: 05/08/2004
XRAY (Dentsply--$48.92; -0.01; optionable): Dental instruments. Forecast to announce a split on 5-10-04 in conjunction with its annual shareholder meeting
BACKGROUND: Last announce a 3 for 2 split on 12-12-01 at a stock price of $46.8. The annual share holder meeting is scheduled for 5-10-04 at 9:30 ET at which time no additional shares will be authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 3 for 2 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/x/xray.html
STATUS: Flying plateau. XRAY exploded out of a 26 week cup with handle base in late April and rallied to 49.79. It has moved laterally over the 10 day EMA (48.58) since, consolidating the breakout but holding onto its gains even as the market sold off. That is the sign of a solid stock. Friday volume jumped back up well above average as it tried to make a move out of the flying plateau that has formed the past two weeks. Excellent money flow and relative strength already breaking out ahead of price, a very bullish indication. The split announcement may come before the open. If it does we will use the first test of the initial move to open a position.
Volume: 553.6K Avg Volume: 490K
BUY POINT: $49.76 Volume=735K Target=$57.24 Stop=$47.88
POSITION: XEQ JJ - Oct. $50c (45 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/xray.html
Continuing Pre-Announcement Plays:
Play Date: 05/04/2004
FLIR (Flir Systems--$44.86; -0.91; optionable): Scientific & technical instruments. No exact date yet, but a nice breakout test underway.
BACKGROUND: Last split 2:1 on 5-30-2003.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/flir.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Still in the test of the breakout from its 13 week flat base 2 weeks back. Friday it slid a bit lower, but held at the 18 day EMA (44.63) on the close after rallying sharply intraday. Still holding up very well after its April earnings release shot it higher. A good lower volume pullback. Solid 5 to 3 accumulation in the pattern (5 up price weeks on rising volume to 3 down price weeks on rising volume), indicating money was moving into the stock during the base.
Volume: 387.329K Avg Volume: 401.258K
BUY POINT: $46.62 Volume=577K Target=$53.62 Stop=$45.22
POSITION: FFQ GI - July $45c (61 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/flir.html
PRE-SPLITS
Play Date: 04/29/2004
ERES (Eresearch Tech--$32.49; +0.03; optionable): Medical labs. Splits 3:2 on 5-28-04
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/eres.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. ERES has formed the handle to its 15 week pattern, holding over the 18 day EMA (31.84) as it moves laterally on lower, below average volume. AS with most strong stocks, it continued its own business of forming its base while the market sold off on stronger volume. It is being patient and we are as well. Once it finishes its handle it will be ready and when it makes the break higher we will move in.
Volume: 655.08K Avg Volume: 1.037M
BUY POINT: $32.95 Volume=1.3M Target=$37.92 Stop=$31.18
POSITION: UDB IZ - Sept. $32.50c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/eres.html
Play Date: 05/06/2004
SFCC (SIBC Intl.--$36.2; -0.98; no options): Research services. Splits 3:2 on 6-1-04
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sfcc.html
STATUS: Flying plateau. Continues to work laterally over the 10 day EMA (36.05), selling back to that level on the Friday close. Volume was very low, however, indicating no major dumping of the stock. Thus we expect it to continue holding the breakout from two weeks back that shot SFCC out of its 7 month base. Excellent money flow. An 'A' rated stock in terms of pattern and earnings and sales growth.
Volume: 47.473K Avg Volume: 101.117K
BUY POINT: $38.12 Volume=145K Target=$43.55 Stop=$35.65
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/sfcc.html
CONTINUING PLAYS
* * SPREADSHEET DOWNLOAD * * *
The following link is to a spreadsheet download of the continuing play table. It will allow subscribers to sort the data for your personal investment use. This is a service to our subscribers only, and no other use of the information is authorized. Simply click on the link, enter your username and password, and download the spreadsheet!
http://stocksplits.net/ssr/table.php
You will need your password. If you need help click on this link and our automated system will email it to you immediately once you fill in your email address:
http://www.investmenthouse.com/rescue/rescue.php3
LEGEND FOR CONTINUING PLAY TABLE
DATE: date play first appeared on report.
PLAY: Denotes the type of pattern or play.
Upside play types: A Wedge=Ascending triangle/wedge; BO=Breakout; Cup=Cup base; Cup hdl=Cup w/handle; DB hdl=Double bottom w/handle; Dbl btm=Double bottom; Flat=Flat base; FlyPlat=Flying Plateau; Pennant=Pennant; Rv H&S=Reverse head & shoulders; Saucer=Saucer base; Test 18=Testing 18 day MVA; Test 50=Testing 50 day MVA; Test BO=Testing the breakout (could be 10 day MVA test, etc.)
Downside play types: CCall=Covered Call; DWedge=Descending triangle/wedge; Dbl Top=Double top; H&S=Head & shoulders; Put (generic downside);
PIVOT=Buy point
Tgt=Target stock price for the play. Applies to stock and options.
Vol=Volume for the most recent session.
TgtV=Target volume to enter the play.
Stop=Stop advisory point. This is advisory and we may or may not exit a play if it hits this level depending upon market conditions.
PLAY STATUS: Buy not hit (stock has not hit buy point); Buy not issued (stock has hit buy point but did not enter due to weak volume, poor intraday action, poor market action); Current (ongoing play already entered); Entered today (entered the play that session); Exited (closed the position); Target hit (play hit initial target; will note if took all or partial gain or let run further); Trailing stop (exited using a trailing stop loss).
End part 2 of 3
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us stock market
trading system
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