|
|
yahoo stock, top stock pick
Begin Part 2 of 2
TEAM TRADES
SLVN: Education is hot. It comes in waves as all moves do. This has been a good year for the stocks, and after a consolidation the past three to four weeks, it looked ready to move again. We have been taking some positions on SLVN and we sent an alert out late in the session back on 7-24 when SLVN fell hard but then recovered late in the session. It dropped the next session, but then on Thursday it started to climb on slightly higher volume. That was a clue that something was up. That got us watching closely on Friday, and sure enough, right after noon it hit our target. Now the stock shot right up to 26.25 on a strong move, but then as often happens it pulled back to test the move. We were going to wait until the stock tested the move before we sent the alert out. It pulled all the way back to 25.75 on low volume and then jumped over 26.25 on a big volume spike at 2:15. We anticipated this move just looking at the price action and we had sent an alert out right before that move. The stock was moving on great volume and it shot up to 26.80 and closed in that range. We are not way ahead on the position by any means, but we were playing the move over the recent high that sent it back down. It cleared that Friday on strong volume and looks ready to resume the move up.
SMTC: Chips are looking better and Thursday we issued the reports with some of the best looking patterns. Not the big names, but good patterns that have been building. SMTC hit the buy point early, but we watched to see what happened. It tested down to 34.80 (35 was the pivot) right after 9:00 (a half hour into the session) and then gapped higher. At that point we issued the alert when we saw a big volume spike. It tested back down to 34.80 and then took off. The spread was varying from 5 cents to 15 cents. We wanted in so the limit was put very close to the ask. Since the pricing was all over the map, you can shave some off the spread even if things are moving pretty fast. It was showing what we wanted to see, a move over resistance and then consolidating laterally followed by the move higher. That was the point to get in. Another solid performance for the session on rising, above average volume.
THE PLAYS:
Reading the Plays: Please note that when we reference the 10, 18, and 50 day moving averages (MVA), those are exponential moving averages (EMA). The 200 day moving average is always simple (SMA). We will note when we reference a particular MVA differently, e.g., a simple 50 day MVA. Please click on the Yahoo and chart links for company and charting information.
BEST PLAYS: SIB just keeps moving, tacking on more Friday to its breakout. BPFH tried to break out, but the low volume day kept that from occurring. Of the chip stocks covered Thursday, MCHP added over a point Friday, and SMTC over two. GSB made the move we wanted, but it fell back before the day was over. IVX is still holding at the 50 day MVA (see the 7-24 report); we are looking for signs of a rebound for picking up some more shares. We have found some great patterns to look at:
Best Plays:
1) STNR: Successful test of the breakout.
2) DHI: At support and finally low volume in its test.
3) EASI: Another ascending wedge
New Stocks: All of these are solid stocks.
A classic test of the breakout:
STNR (Steiner Leisure--$25.60; +1.56; no options):
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/strn.html
STATUS: Had a super run late June and early July, and Friday made another strong move up after a pullback (test of breakout) on lower volume that lasted 2 weeks. That is solid enough for us, and are looking for an entry point on a move up from here. STRN hit a high of 26.57 on the breakout run, so that can pose potential resistance; however, we like the momentum and look for the stock to take that out on this move (volume was up to 184,800; avg. 100,000). Huge money flow and buying. Initial target: 36.
BUY POINT: 26, on continued strong volume. Stop: 23.92 (18 day MVA, 23.53).
POSITION: Stock.
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/stnr.html
Double bottom with handle:
PPDI (Pharmaceutical Prod Dev--$35.81; -0.74; optionable (PJQ): Medical Labs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/ppdi.html
STATUS: Pulling back in the handle to a double bottom base. The stock is currently at support (10 day MVA, tested on the low of 35.60), and volume decreased to 860,500 (avg. is 904,000). PPDI can hold the support here, but there is a chance it can slide through and test the 18 day MVA (34.59). However, 35.70 is the price at the peak of the middle hump in the pattern, and we like that the stock is holding above that. Showing strong money flow and great buying. Target: 44-46.
BUY POINT: 38.13, on volume in the range of 1.4 million. Stop: 35.08 (just above the 18 day MVA).
POSITION: Stock and/or October $30 calls to buy (PJQ JF).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/ppdi.html
Another test of the breakout:
DHI (D.R.Horton--$27.24; +0.24; optionable (DHI): Materials and construction
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dhi.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout from a 6-month cup base that took the stock to a July high of 29.78. DHI has pulled back on lower volume, though volume didn't really get to where we wanted it until Friday (305,700; avg. 730,000). Showing a doji now and closed right on top of the 10 day MVA; the stock tested the 18 day MVA Thursday. Looking for a move up from here; buy point in the previous base was 26.12 so if DHI tests the 18 day MVA again (26.49) it will still be above that. Showing solid buying. This has been a hot sector; many of the stocks that broke out are pulling back, and we will see if they can post more gains after testing support. Initial target: 35.
BUY POINT: Aggressive: 28.30, on volume of 413,000 or better. Stop: 26.04.
POSITION: Stock and/or November $25 calls to buy (DHI KE).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/hdi.html
Updated:
Ascending wedge:
EASI (Engineered Support--$38.27; +0.40; no options): Aerospace/defense
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/easi.html
STATUS: Formed an ascending wedge after correcting off the June high of 42.78. Volume has been drying up nicely in the tail of the pattern, and was very low though just up at 77,800 on Friday (avg. 204,454). The stock bounced up from the 18 day MVA but remains below resistance up at 39.59. Showing super money flow and high relative strength, we are looking for a breakout here, and then a move over the June high. Target: 50.
BUY POINT: 40.61 (that will take out the July high of 40.48) on volume in the range of 276,000. Stop: 37.36.
POSITION: Stock.
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/easi.html
THE PORTFOLIOS: Each report, we look at these to see which is in a buy position. We don't cover them all each time, just the ones that look ready to pick up a few shares.
THE LEADERS: We have revamped this portfolio, dropping for now CPN, SGR, NATI and BRKS. Those stocks have, for the most part, dropped off and need to form bases or do some more work in ones already existing. To the New Leader section we are adding DGX, EBAY, FRX, PSFT, ADVS, and BMET. In the Previous Leader section, VRSN, VRTS, ADBE and SEBL are retained. Ones dropped include AMCC, ARBA, BEAS, BRCD, CIEN, EMC, EXTR, GLW, JNPR, NEWP, NTAP, PMCS and SCMR. All of these stocks will be kept on watch in context with improvement in their sectors and the market.
New Leaders: ESRX, LLL, ACS, NVDA, DGX, EBAY, FRX, PSFT, ADVS, BMET.
Previous Leaders in which we are still interested: ADBE, SEBL, VRSN, VRTS
UP & COMERS PORTFOLIOS: We have revamped the Up & Comers portfolio, and are dropping EXDS, TQNT, BVSN, SANM, PKI and GMST for now, adding BBBY, IGT, RCII, CHS, KG and AEOS.
LNCR, BJ, ANF, LOW, HI, THQI, BBBY, IGT, RCII, CHS, KG, AEOS.
LOW (Lowe's Companies--$38.90; -0.35; optionable (LOW): Retail: Home Stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bpfh.html
STATUS: LOW has formed an ascending wedge pattern after pulling back from its third attempt to break above resistance at the 39.40 range; the stock had a good two-day run up to Thursday's 39.25 close but pulled back Friday. LOW showed a doji on lower volume, which dropped back nicely to 2.47 million (avg. 3.2 million). The doji combined with low volume signals a move back up, but if the stock drops back to test in the range of the 10 day MVA (38) or even the 18 day MVA (37.54), that won't mean an end of the pattern, though the up trendline supporting it is at 38.83 (the low was 38.62). Shaping up to be a good pattern, and we like the below average (and falling) volume, too. Target: 47.
BUY POINT: 41.99, on volume in the range of 4.3 million or better. Stop: 38.63
A buy on breakout up to 44.09.
POSITION: Stock and/or October $35 calls to buy (LOW JG).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/low.html
MEMBER PORTFOLIO: BRCM, CHKP, CSCO, EMLX, IDTI, INTC, JDSU, MVSN, NT, PWER, SUNW, VTSS
Results are tallied; we will break out the new portfolio Monday.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and The Daily Staff
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
|
yahoo stock
top stock pick
|
