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trend trading stock, trade stock
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS:
Weekend play results:
ATRM: Faded some on low volume but still holding well.
CEN: Gapped down but managed to rally back to hold the pattern.
IRM: Big gap higher but fell back to the 50 day EMA because no volume.
PSYS: Held up well in the pattern despite the market selling.
ESST: Started to turn at the 10 day but volume was low heading into the close.
New Plays:
Upside:
Play Date: 05/10/2004
ARTI (Artisan Components--$24.15; -0.09; optionable): Semiconductor integrated circuits
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/arti.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. ARTI is preparing for a breakout to a new high after working through 12 month base. The last 4 months it has formed a cup with handle, breaking out at the end of April. After rallying to 25.73 on the breakout it has faded back to test the break. Volume has been lower and below average as it has slid back to tap the 10 day EMA (23.85) on the intraday lows and rebounding to close. Very good action in a hard selling market, and with chips trying to do something it is good to be ready with one that can move to a new high and not have any overhead supply to knock it back. Accumulation in the recent base is a solid 4 to 2 (4 up price weeks on rising volume to 2 down price volume weeks on rising volume). Good action in the selling, and just waiting for a big volume move.
Volume: 354.244K Avg Volume: 394.454K
BUY POINT: $25.35 Volume=592K Target=$29.15 Stop=$23.58
POSITION: UAR IE - Sept. $25c (50 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/arti.html
Play Date: 05/10/2004
EEFT (Euronet Worldwide--$20.22; +0.79; no options): Secure electronic financial transactions
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/eeft.html
STATUS: Ascending triangle. A nice 10 week pattern has formed over the 50 day EMA (18.91) and sporting strong 6 to 0 accumulation as money has moved in on the bounces up off the 50 day. Money flow is moving higher ahead of price and relative strength is already making the breakout before the stock, a very bullish sign. Big volume surge Monday as EEFT gapped lower, tapped the 50 day, and then powered to a gain. Looks ready to try the breakout move.
Volume: 600.115K Avg Volume: 216.5K
BUY POINT: $20.43 Volume=425K Target=$24.55 Stop=$19.22
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/eeft.html
Play Date: 05/10/2004
MYK (Mykrolis--$15.02; +0.08; optionable): Scientific & technical Instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/myk.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Another stock trading relatively near its all-time high and forming up a nice accumulation base to set up the breakout and run to that new high. A solid 12 week base with a nice handle forming the past three sessions, easing back to tap the simple 50 day MA on the Monday low and then rebounding on rising, above average volume for a gain. Positive 5 to 4 accumulation and surging money flow running well ahead of price. Looking for the price to follow the money flow and provide the breakout on strong volume.
Volume: 236.5K Avg Volume: 212.59K
BUY POINT: $15.62 Volume=319K Target=$18.75 Stop=$14.53
POSITION: MYK JC - Oct. $15c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/myk.html
Play Date: 05/10/2004
WWCA (Western Wireless--$23.91; -0.59; optionable): Telecom wireless
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wwca.html
STATUS: Breakout test. After peaking in February and then trending lower to the end of April, WWCA gapped over the simple 50 day MA (23.55) last Wednesday on huge trade after announcing strong quarterly results. In the market selling it has given back some of the gains, moving back to tap the simple 50 day on the Monday low and rebounding to cut its losses. Volume has dropped sharply on the test just as it should to indicate fewer sellers than the recent buyers. That sets it up for a continuation of the breakout move. Hard to call this a cup pattern, more of a trend reversal gap, but accumulation is still positive at 4 to 3. Looking for it o continue the breakout move with a solid volume move through the buy point.
Volume: 2.089M Avg Volume: 1.778M
BUY POINT: $25.22 Volume=2.7M Target=$29 Stop=$23.45
POSITION: WRQ HE - Aug. $25c (44 delta) or WRQ HX - Aug. $22.50c (68 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/wwca.html
Downside:
Play Date: 05/10/2004
BRL (Barr Labs--$43.14; +0.34; optionable): Generic drugs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/brl.html
STATUS: Put. BRL peaked in December and has been in a downtrend ever since. The past two months it has been stalling at the 10 and 18 day EMA (43.61, 44.33) as the resistance in its trend lower. It tapped the 18 day Wednesday and fell to 42. It bounced Monday after gapping lower, posting a gain. Looking for it to try near the 18 day again and then roll back over.
Volume: 1.571M Avg Volume: 1.038M
BUY POINT: Test $44, then $43.88 on the way back down. Volume=1.6M Target=$41 Stop=$44.22
POSITION: BRL RI - June $45p (-69 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/brl.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your IH Alerts Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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