|
|
trend trading stock, trade stock
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Best Plays:
1) BRL: Rallying back up to test the down trendline
2) MYK: Nice double bottom with super money flow.
3) WCCA: Nice test of breakout on huge earnings.
4) EFII: Continues to look very good.
5) MIPS: Volume is surging.
6) PSYS: Ignored the selling.
NEW PLAYS:
Downside:
Play Date: 05/10/2004
BRL (Barr Labs--$43.14; +0.34; optionable): Generic drugs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/brl.html
STATUS: Put. BRL peaked in December and has been in a downtrend ever since. The past two months it has been stalling at the 10 and 18 day EMA (43.61, 44.33) as the resistance in its trend lower. It tapped the 18 day Wednesday and fell to 42. It bounced Monday after gapping lower, posting a gain. Looking for it to try near the 18 day again and then roll back over.
Volume: 1.571M Avg Volume: 1.038M
BUY POINT: Test $44, then $43.88 on the way back down. Volume=1.6M Target=$41 Stop=$44.22
POSITION: BRL RI - June $45p (-69 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/brl.html
Play Date: 05/10/2004
EMIS (Emisphere Tech--$5.15; +0.06; optionable): Drug delivery
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/emis.html
STATUS: Put. Peaked in January and trending lower since, it got a bit ugly to end April with a hard drop down near 4.50. It was using the 10 and 18 day EMA (5.19, 5.42) as resistance in the trend lower, and it has made a lower volume bounce back up to the 10 day Monday. It may try another move up to the 18 day before stalling out, but we want to be ready either way.
Volume: 100.12K Avg Volume: 96.636K
BUY POINT: From Monday close: $5.08 Test 18 day (5.42): 5.28 on the way back down. Volume=145K Target=$4 Stop=$5.22
POSITION: MTQ RA - June $5p (-40 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/emis.html
Upside:
Play Date: 05/10/2004
MYK (Mykrolis--$15.02; +0.08; optionable): Scientific & technical Instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/myk.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Another stock trading relatively near its all-time high and forming up a nice accumulation base to set up the breakout and run to that new high. A solid 12 week base with a nice handle forming the past three sessions, easing back to tap the simple 50 day MA on the Monday low and then rebounding on rising, above average volume for a gain. Positive 5 to 4 accumulation and surging money flow running well ahead of price. Looking for the price to follow the money flow and provide the breakout on strong volume.
Volume: 236.5K Avg Volume: 212.59K
BUY POINT: $15.62 Volume=319K Target=$18.75 Stop=$14.53
POSITION: MYK JC - Oct. $15c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/myk.html
Play Date: 05/10/2004
OSIP (OSI Pharmaceuticals--$71.95; -2.36; optionable): Medical labs, cancer research
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/o/osip.html
STATUS: Breakout test. OSIP soared on the positive results to its cancer drug, rallying over 90 in one jump. It has spent the past two weeks letting some of the air out of that move, but it has managed to find some support at the 10 day EMA (70.53). Volume has steadily declined on the down sessions as it has made faded, rising on the few ups sessions. It has come back to sit right on the 10 day, and we are looking for a nice volume move off of that level. Can run like the wind once it starts. Earnings are out Wednesday before the open.
Volume: 3.342M Avg Volume: 3.519M
BUY POINT: $73.55 Volume=6M Target=$85 Stop=$70.36
POSITION: GHU GO - July $75c (53 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/osip.html
Play Date: 05/10/2004
WWCA (Western Wireless--$23.91; -0.59; optionable): Telecom wireless
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wwca.html
STATUS: Breakout test. After peaking in February and then trending lower to the end of April, WWCA gapped over the simple 50 day MA (23.55) last Wednesday on huge trade after announcing strong quarterly results. In the market selling it has given back some of the gains, moving back to tap the simple 50 day on the Monday low and rebounding to cut its losses. Volume has dropped sharply on the test just as it should to indicate fewer sellers than the recent buyers. That sets it up for a continuation of the breakout move. Hard to call this a cup pattern, more of a trend reversal gap, but accumulation is still positive at 4 to 3. Looking for it o continue the breakout move with a solid volume move through the buy point.
Volume: 2.089M Avg Volume: 1.778M
BUY POINT: $25.22 Volume=2.7M Target=$29 Stop=$23.45
POSITION: WRQ HE - Aug. $25c (44 delta) or WRQ HX - Aug. $22.50c (68 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/wwca.html
CONTINUING PLAYS:
Play Date: 05/06/2004
EFII (Electronics for Imaging--$26.74; +0.18; optionable): Application software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/efii.html
STATUS: Cup. Held up extremely well in the selling, posting a modest gain as it continues to work on a handle to its 15 week base. Excellent money flow still surges ahead of the stock price, a great compliment to the outstanding at 8 to 2 (8 up price weeks on rising volume to 2 down price weeks on rising volume). Money has been moving into the stock even as it corrected in this base. Ready for it to follow that money flow higher.
Volume: 506.86K Avg Volume: 492.545K
BUY POINT: $27.48 Volume=725K Target=$32 Stop=$25.78
POSITION: EFQ JE - Oct. $25c (76 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/efii.html
Play Date: 05/03/2004
LEXG (Lexicon Genetics--$6.91; -0.2; no options): Biopharma research for disease control
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/lexg.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. The handle continues to form to the 15 week base, tapping the 50 day EMA (6.78) on the low and then rebounding, showing a doji on the move. Volume has been lower and below average as on this last pullback. Strong 4 to 1 accumulation in the pattern with money flow rising even as the stock moves laterally and lower on fading volume. Excellent action in a selling market.
Volume: 220.437K Avg Volume: 233.363K
BUY POINT: $7.62 Volume=369K Target=$9.15 Stop=$7.09
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/lexg.html
Play Date: 05/03/2004
MDT (Medtronic--$51.01; -0.06; optionable): Medical appliances
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mdt.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Hardly noticed the market selling. MDT held fast over the 10 day EMA (50.76), tapping that level on the low and rebounding on rising though still below average volume. Nice 13 week base with accumulation at a strong 4 to 1. Just waiting for that big volume spike that carries it through the buy point.
Volume: 4.035M Avg Volume: 4.459M
BUY POINT: $51.78 Volume=7.5M Target=$59 Stop=$49.92
POSITION: MDT HJ - Aug. $50c (66 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/mdt.html
Play Date: 04/21/2004
MIPS (Mips Technologies--$6.68; -0.14; no options): Semiconductor memory chips
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mips.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Nice action in the handle, tapping the 18 day EMA on the low (6.59) and then rebounding to cut its losses. Volume really spiked on the move and it held tough in the selling. Strong money flow is leading price higher, and with the SOX holding up well MIPS is way ahead of the pack with this solid pattern.
Volume: 831.357K Avg Volume: 262.181K
BUY POINT: New: 7.06 (orig. $6.82) Volume=339K Target=$8.22 Stop=$6.34
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/mips.html
Play Date: 05/08/2004
PSYS (Psychiatric Solutions--$22; -0.67; no options): Specialized health services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/psys.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Eased back in the selling, tapping the 18 day EMA on the low (21.32) and rebounding to hold over the 10 day on the close. Volume was much lower and well below average on the selling, indicating very few sellers. Still working on a very nice handle to its 9 week base consolidating a strong March to March run. Again, good price/volume action in the pattern with volume drying up at the bottom of the pattern and then swelling as it rallied to form the right side of the base. Excellent money flow and relative strength is ready to make the breakout. An 'A' rated stock as far as earnings and sales.
Volume: 114.563K Avg Volume: 157.545K
BUY POINT: $23.85 Volume=300K Target=$28 Stop=$22.18
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/psys.html
Play Date: 05/03/2004
PTEK (PTEK Holdings--$10.05; -0.17; optionable): Telecom
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/ptek.html
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. PTEK continues to test the breakout in late April from its 14 week base. It has come all the way back to the 50 day EMA (9.96) in the market selling, pulling back, but on much lower, below average volume. That indicates there are not many sellers in the stock and that its accumulation pattern sporting solid 5 to 3 accumulation is holding up. A bit of abatement in the selling and it will have some room to make another run at a breakout. At a 4 year high, and that means little overhead supply to toss it back when it makes its move.
Volume: 578.072K Avg Volume: 762.681K
BUY POINT: $10.88 Volume=1.1M Target=$13.05 Stop=$10.22
POSITION: QTE HB - Aug. $10c (66 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ptek.html
Downside:
Play Date: 05/05/2004
$SOX (Philly Semiconductor Index--$458.90; +1.89; optionable)
STATUS: Put. SOX has been moving up for 5 sessions, but unable to really breakaway. It has moved up to test the 18 day EMA (464.78) the past two session on the high (more or less) and has fallen back. It is showing relative strength to the market, but it is also bucking at the 18 day EMA without a lot of strength or support from the market. If the rest of the market rallies SOX will have an easier time clearing the 18 day. If it does not and we see SOX turn at or below the 18 day we are ready to play the downside move. If this happens that is a pretty bad prognosis for the market near term.
BUY POINT: Aggressive: $456.94 Target=$427 Stop=$452.25
POSITION: SXX RJ - June $450p (-45 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/$sox.html
Play Date: 05/08/2004
ESST (ESS Technology--$11.48; -0.27; optionable): Semiconductors
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/esst.html
STATUS: Put. Started rolling over Monday on slightly rising volume, and we were tempted to move in Monday but the volume was very low. If the market gets a modest relief bounce Tuesday but then runs out of gas, we will be ready to move in.
Volume: 574.591K Avg Volume: 744.409K
BUY POINT: Test toward 11.98 on early bounce, then $11.64 Volume=825K Target=$9.88 Stop=$12.11
POSITION: SEQ SV - July $12.50p (-60 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/esst.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
|
trend trading stock
trade stock
|
