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Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
In each report we prepare full write-ups for those plays that look ready to move. Those that have made the move or are still setting up are discussed in the continuing play table. The purpose is to focus on those stocks that are set to move.
NEW PLAYS: This section includes plays from all sections other than pre-announcements. Those are contained in the pre-announcement section.
New Pre-Split Plays:
Play Date: 05/11/2004
AVP (Avon Products--$83.32; +0.47; optionable): Make-up, etc. Splits 2:1 on 6-1-04
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/avp.html
STATUS: Test 18 day EMA. Taking another run at AVP. Consumer products continue their strength, and after that pullback to test near the 18 day EMA (81.65) we are going to try and catch AVP on its next move higher. It may come back to snug up more to the 18 day before continuing the move that started anew with the gap higher late in April. The Monday selling volume was a bit high, so we want to see some volume come in on the move back upside even if this is a pre-split.
Volume: 1.298M Avg Volume: 1.269M
BUY POINT: $83.62 Volume=1.8M Target=$88.88 Stop=$81.52
POSITION: AVP GP - July $80c (76 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/avp.html
Play Date: 05/11/2004
MOGN (MGI Pharmaceuticals--$60.99; +1.78; optionable): Drugs. Splits 2:1 on 6-10-04
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mogn.html
STATUS: 50 day EMA test. Has run well this year after a breakout in January, working up the 10 and 18 day EMA to late April. It has since come back to test the 50 day EMA (59.92) as stocks typically do after a strong breakout and run up the short term MA. Sold on higher volume Monday, but reversed and held near the 50 day. High volume at the 50 day is not bad as it shows the big money is moving in; when it rallies back from a test lower, that is more clearly the case. Looking for volume to kick up as it jumps off the 50 day.
Volume: 654.454K Avg Volume: 750K
BUY POINT: $62.38 Volume=900K Target=$69 Stop=$58.62
POSITION: QOG GL - July $60c (58 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/mogn.html
Play Date: 05/11/2004
PG (Procter & Gamble--$106.08; +0.41; optionable): Household products. Splits 2:1 on 6-21-04.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pg.html
STATUS: 50 day EMA test. Continues the run up the 50 day and has come back to test that level, tapping the 50 day (104.83) on the Tuesday low and then snapping back. Volume was lower but still above average. It may come back to test a bit closer toward the 50 day before bouncing again, but we want to be ready for the move.
Volume: 3.658M Avg Volume: 3.084M
BUY POINT: From Tuesday close: $107.25; Test 105, then 106.25 on the move back up. Volume=4M Target=$112.25 Stop=$105.72
POSITION: PG GA - July $105c (67 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/pg.html
New Leader Plays: May turn into a split, but a solid stock ready to move.
Play Date: 05/11/2004
ACLS (Axcelis Technologies--$11.47; +0.65; optionable): Chip equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/acls.html
STATUS: Double bottom/reverse head and shoulders. You can call this either one, and it looks good either way. It bounced off the 200 day SMA (10.26) on the last two dips, holding at that important support level and rebounding. Volume has been light while ACLS worked in its base, rallying the past two weeks as it came off of the 200 day. A good 14 week base sporting solid 4 to 2 accumulation (4 up price weeks on rising volume to 2 down price weeks on rising volume). That shows us money has been moving into the stock as it corrected, and money flow is rallying ahead of price. Nice bounce off the 50 day EMA (10.93) Tuesday on some rising though still below average volume. Looks ready to move with the semiconductors.
Volume: 1.249M Avg Volume: 1.248M
BUY POINT: $11.82 Volume=1.9M Target=$14 Stop=$10.99
POSITION: ULS JB - Oct. $10c (75 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/acls.html
Continuing Leader Plays:
Play Date: 04/29/2004
ALOG (Analogic Corp.--$47.55; +0.55; no options): Scientific & technical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/alog.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Hanging in the pattern, testing toward the 50 day EMA (45.67) and then bouncing back Tuesday. This action keeps it looking solid in its 7 month base. Accumulation is solid at 8 to 5 (8 up price weeks on rising volume to 5 down price weeks on rising volume). Money flow is still surging higher ahead of price. This one requires patience.
Volume: 57.829K Avg Volume: 106.409K
BUY POINT: $50.28 Volume=159K Target=$57.85 Stop=$48.05
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/alog.html
Play Date: 05/05/2004
IDSY (I.D. Systems--$9.97; +0.29; no options): Telecom equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/idsy.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Big breakout to start the month and has tested back to the 10 day EMA (9.62) on lower, below average volume. Tuesday it was up big, but volume was not. Money flow continues to shoot higher ahead of price. Looking for that volume to jump as it moves through the buy point.
Volume: 26.665K Avg Volume: 84.727K
BUY POINT: $10.22 Volume=123K Target=$12.32 Stop=$9.48
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/idsy.html
Play Date: 05/04/2004
SSTI (Silicon Storage Tech--$14.57; +0.6; optionable): Semiconductor memory chips
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/ssti.html
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. Looks ready to start its move, bouncing off the 50 day EMA Monday and continuing the move Tuesday. Volume was up, but still below average. Chips are leading, and this stock is positioned well. It is testing the breakout from a 17 week cup base formed along the 50 day EMA (13.77). Accumulation in the base was solid at 6 to 4.
Volume: 2.173M Avg Volume: 2.136M
BUY POINT: $14.58 Volume=3M Target=$17.52 Stop=$13.56
POSITION: SSU GC - July $15c (46 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ssti.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
Current Pre-Announcement Plays: In each report we look at the candidates that are in the best patterns ahead of their potential announcements. This focus on leaders in good patterns allows us to make good money even if companies do not announce the split, something that they are still gun-shy of even after the market has made a good recovery as well as the economy. The key with splits now is in the pattern; yes there is a positive move on the announcement, but stocks in this market need to have a good pattern of accumulation to really benefit from a split announcement.
AGN: Researching the next date.
APOL: Forecast 6-12-04 before the open.
BIO: No split announced on 5-6-04. Holding at the 50 day and not giving us an entry point.
BMET: Researching next date.
CHS: Forecast 5-27-04 after the close. Still struggling after release of same store sales.
CRL: No announcement 4-28-04. Still moving laterally
CWTR: Forecast 5-26-04.
DGX: Researching next date and waiting for the breakout.
ESRX: Forecast 5-26-04 with its shareholder meeting.
GTK: Forecast 6-18-04. Waiting to see if it will give us the next entry, but struggling as it slips below the 50 day.
HUG: Forecast 5-25-04 after the close.
IDXX: Researching next date.
LXK: Researching the next split date as it tests the 50 day EMA.
PDCO: Mid-May, 2004.
POOL: No split announced at the shareholder meeting Thursday and slipped below the 18 day EMA Friday.
QCOM: No split announcement on 5-3. Good move back over the 50 day.
RS: Forecast 5-19-04. Trying to recover the 50 day but struggling.
STJ: Dumped big Monday so we cut. Will let it form back up.
UOPX: Forecast 6-24-04 before the open.
URBN: Forecast 5-13-04 with earnings or on 6-1-04 at its shareholder meeting.
WFMI: Forecast 5-5-04 after the close. No split but holding at the 50 day EMA.
ZBRA: Looking for a new date. Looks ready to breakout over 77 as well.
ZMH: No split announced 4-26-04. Holding the 50 day EMA
Full Write-ups: We do not cover all candidates in full in each report, but focus on those ready to make a move or are right at their forecast announcement date. This way we are focused on those stocks ready to make moves.
New Pre-Announcement Plays:
Play Date: 05/11/2004
MATK (Martek Biosciences--$68.01; +1.78; optionable): Biotechnology. Researching the exact date, but in an excellent pattern so we wanted to get it on the report.
BACKGROUND: Our research indicates no splits in the past.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/matk.html
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. MATK is working through a nice 15 week base sporting solid 4 to 2 accumulation in the pattern. Excellent money flow is leading ahead of price and relative strength is already breaking out. Money flow is swelling the past two sessions. Looks ready to make its breakout as it has held up very well during the market selling. Indeed, it is ready for an all-time high.
Volume: 587.234K Avg Volume: 585.545K
BUY POINT: $69.72 Volume=878K Target=$80 Stop=$65.82
POSITION: KQT IN - Sept. $70c (49 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/matk.html
Continuing Pre-Announcement Plays:
New buy point:
Play Date: 01/24/2004
APOL (Apollo Group--$90.32; +1.87; optionable): Education and training. Forecast to announce a split 6-12-04 before the open
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3 for 2 split on 4-5-02 at a stock price of $34.50. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/apol.html
STATUS: 50 day EMA test. Fell hard Monday but landed on the 50 day EMA (87.04) on rising, above average volume. It held and bounced Tuesday on lower though still above average volume. This is a stock that rallied up the 10 and 18 day EMA, then takes a breather at the 50 day. Money flow remains strong, and we are looking at this as a buying opportunity.
Volume: 1.987M Avg Volume: 1.665M
BUY POINT: $91.72 Volume=3M Target=$105 Stop=$87.95
POSITION: OAQ HR - Aug. $90c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/apol.html
Play Date: 05/04/2004
FLIR (Flir Systems--$45.03; +0.93; optionable): Scientific & technical instruments. No exact date yet, but a nice breakout test underway.
BACKGROUND: Last split 2:1 on 5-30-2003.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/flir.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Continued to hold the 18 day EMA (44.62) in the selling, and started back up Tuesday on rising, above average volume. Good action and it looks ready to continue the breakout run after a good, low volume pullback. Solid 5 to 3 accumulation in the pattern (5 up price weeks on rising volume to 3 down price weeks on rising volume), indicating money was moving into the stock during the base.
Volume: 421.098K Avg Volume: 354.681K
BUY POINT: $46.62 Volume=577K Target=$53.62 Stop=$45.22
POSITION: FFQ GI - July $45c (61 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/flir.html
Play Date: 12/30/2003
LXK (Lexmark Intl.--$91.85; +1.65; optionable): Printers. Forecast to announce a split on 7-21-04 in conjunction with earnings. The company has not confirmed this date.
BACKGROUND: Last announce a 2 for 1 split on 4-29-99 at a stock price of $110. The annual shareholder meeting was on 4-30-03 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/lxk.html
STATUS: 50 day EMA test. LXK stood us up at the altar in April, but it was no hard feelings as it continues to move higher for us. It has come back to the 50 day EMA (90.14) just as it did in late February and early March, making a small double bottom. We are looking for an above average volume move off of this level. We are looking to play more of a bounce here, and if it gives us more, all the better.
Volume: 907.3K Avg Volume: 1.051M
BUY POINT: $92.62 Volume=1.5M Target=$105 Stop=$89.88
POSITION: LXK JR - Oct. $90c (64 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/lxk.html
Play Date: 05/08/2004
XRAY (Dentsply--$49.19; +0.49; optionable): Dental instruments. No split on 5-10-04, but looks good.
BACKGROUND: Last announce a 3 for 2 split on 12-12-01 at a stock price of $46.8. The annual share holder meeting is scheduled for 5-10-04 at 9:30 ET at which time no additional shares will be authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 3 for 2 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/x/xray.html
STATUS: Flying plateau. Trying to continue the move as volume continues to run above average. XRAY exploded out of a 26 week cup with handle base in late April and rallied to 49.79. It has moved laterally over the 10 day EMA (48.71) since, consolidating the breakout but holding onto its gains even as the market sold off. Excellent money flow and relative strength already breaking out ahead of price, a very bullish indication. Another big volume move is what we are looking for to break it out of this lateral move.
Volume: 661.333K Avg Volume: 471.863K
BUY POINT: $49.76 Volume=735K Target=$57.24 Stop=$47.88
POSITION: XEQ JJ - Oct. $50c (45 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/xray.html
PRE-SPLITS
Play Date: 04/29/2004
BCR (C.R. Bard--$106.66; +1.03; optionable): Medical instruments. Splits 2:1 on 6-1-04
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bcr.html
STATUS: Test 18 day EMA. Came back in the market selling, but held the April gap higher, a very good sign of strength. Volume surged Tuesday as it started off of that level. Want to see it clear the 10 day EMA (106.72) on continued solid trade to move in.
Volume: 705.3K Avg Volume: 360.136K
BUY POINT: $107.25 Volume=600K Target=$120 Stop=$103.22
POSITION: BCR GA - July $105c (62 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/bcr.html
Play Date: 05/06/2004
SFCC (SIBC Intl.--$36.84; +0.71; no options): Research services. Splits 3:2 on 6-1-04
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sfcc.html
STATUS: Flying plateau. Still in that nice lateral move over the 10 day EMA (36.20) as it consolidates the big break higher to end April. Money flow continues to move higher ahead of the price even as it pulls back. An 'A' rated stock in terms of pattern and earnings and sales growth.Just needs some volume to break it higher.
Volume: 63.97K Avg Volume: 95.681K
BUY POINT: $38.12 Volume=145K Target=$43.55 Stop=$35.65
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/sfcc.html
Play Date: 05/08/2004
SSP (E.W. Scripps--$103.1; +0.79; optionable): Newspapers. Splits 2:1 on a date yet to be announced.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/ssp.html
STATUS: 50 day EMA test. Volume jumped to average Monday as SSP sold down to the 50 day EMA but held fast. That shows some money moved in to support the stock. It bounced Tuesday, but volume died off. SSP broke out from a short 6 week flat base in early April and rallied to 109, and is testing that move. Again, we are looking for a strong volume bounce from here to move in and capture the next move.
Volume: 118.5K Avg Volume: 176.59K
BUY POINT: $104.78 Volume=225K Target=$112 Stop=$103.72
POSITION: SSP IA - Sept. $105c (43 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ssp.html
POST-SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 05/08/2004
BLUD (Immucor--$25.05; +0.74; optionable): Diagnostic substances
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/blud.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Started up off the 10 day EMA (24.31) Tuesday after a very nice, low volume test of the breakout on the FDA approval in late April. Unfortunately, volume remained low as it made the move. Want to see some volume coming into the stock. A great position to continue the move. Money flow is surging ahead of the stock price.
Volume: 251.982K Avg Volume: 285.227K
BUY POINT: $25.62 Volume=500K Target=$30 Stop=$23.92
POSITION: QMQ IE - Sept. $25c (53 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/blud.html
Play Date: 05/08/2004
GPRO (Gen Probe--$38.30; +1.95; optionable): Diagnostic equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gpro.html
STATUS: Cup. Solid volume as GPRO started up Tuesday after a tap at the 50 day EMA (35.81) on the Monday low. Nice 15 week cup base and moving on stronger volume. Still a buy on this move.
Volume: 1.105M Avg Volume: 576.59K
BUY POINT: New: $38.62 (orig. $38.25) Volume=900K Target=$44 Stop=$36.25
POSITION: PSU HG - Aug. $35c (66 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/gpro.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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