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Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Best Plays:
1) ASKJ: Up off the 50 day EMA on volume.
2) EXBD: Excellent lateral move on low volume ahead of the coming breakout.
3) MXIM: Nice test of the break over the 200 day SMA and now ready.
4) EFII: Nice and volume is surging.
5) MYK: Excellent pattern.
6) PSYS: Right on the doorstep.
7) WWCA: Still very pretty.
NEW PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 05/12/2004
ASKJ (Ask Jeeves--$37.70; +0.61; optionable): Internet information provider
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/askj.html
STATUS: 50 day EMA test. Nice breakout and run March to April. As a big mover, it took the selling hard to end April and begin March. It has come back to test the 50 day EMA (34.53), but the character changed in March. The volume fell well below average. When it hit the 50 day volume jumped, and it has been jumping the past two sessions on above average volume. Looks ready to take to the high road once more.
Volume: 5.726M Avg Volume: 3.569M
BUY POINT: $38.25 Volume=5.4M Target=$43.98 Stop=$35.88
POSITION: AUK IH - Sept. $40c (49 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/askj.html
Play Date: 05/12/2004
CAND (Candies, Inc.--$2.49; 0.00; no options): Apparel
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cand.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. CAND is forming the handle to its 12 week base sporting excellent 5 to 1 accumulation (5 up price weeks on rising volume to 1 down price week on rising volume). After an explosive move to start the month on some very strong volume, it has eased back on below average volume to test the 10 day EMA (2.44). Outstanding money flow is surging even as the stock makes this pullback. We saw the stock as it formed a good base through last summer and watched it break out. It has formed another good base, and this time we are going to be ready to catch it on the breakout move.
Volume: 74.992K Avg Volume: 147.545K
BUY POINT: $2.68 Volume=221K Target=$3.35 Stop=$2.49
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/cand.html
Play Date: 05/12/2004
EXBD (Corporate Executive Board--$52.84; +0.27; optionable): Executive education
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/exbd.html
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders breakout test. That is a mouthful. EXBD has formed this pattern right at the all-time high . A nice 12 week base with strong 5 to 2 accumulation and surging money flow. It rallied in late April and early May very strong volume, and in the recent selling it has held up very well, holding most of its gain. A wild session with the rest of the market Wednesday, testing down toward the 18 day EMA on the low (51.80) and rebounding sharply. Looks ready.
Volume: 147.648K Avg Volume: 240.818K
BUY POINT: $54.02 Volume=361K Target=$62 Stop=$51.52
POSITION: EBU IK - Sept. $55c (41 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/exbd.html
Play Date: 05/12/2004
MXIM (Maxim Integrated--$48.41; -0.90; optionable): Semiconductors
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mxim.html
STATUS: Double bottom. MXIM is approaching the middle 'hump' in its 12 week base. Volume surged the past two weeks as it bottomed on the right leg of the base and started back up. It cleared the 50 day EMA (47.79) four sessions back on very strong trade and has eased back on lower trade Wednesday, tapping the 200 day SMA (47.34) on the low and rebounding to recoup most of its loss for the session. Looking for the stock to resume the move. Chips were lagging somewhat today on the rebound; want to see strong volume and a clean breakaway move.
Volume: 8.462M Avg Volume: 6.011M
BUY POINT: $50.12 Volume=9M Target=$55.95 Stop=$48.55
POSITION: XIQ HJ - Aug. $50c (44 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/mxim.html
CONTINUING PLAYS:
Play Date: 05/11/2004
BCRX (Biocryst Pharma--$8.83; -0.08; no options): Biotechnology
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bcrx.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Still holding the test at the 18 day EMA (8.78), a solid low volume pullback after blasting out of a 6.5 month base to end April. Outstanding 9 to 3 accumulation in the pattern (9 up price weeks on rising volume to 3 down price weeks on rising volume). Ready for it to start the rebound move.
Volume: 93.167K Avg Volume: 166.136K
BUY POINT: $9.72 Volume=300K Target=$11.55 Stop=$8.96
POSITION: - Stock (No option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/bcrx.html
Play Date: 05/06/2004
EFII (Electronics for Imaging--$27.24; +0.11; optionable): Application software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/efii.html
STATUS: Cup. Volume has rallied the past two sessions as EFII edges up toward the buy point. As noted, EFII has held up extremely well in the selling as it completes the work on the handle to its 15 week base. Excellent money flow is surging and accumulation is outstanding at 8 to 2 (8 up price weeks on rising volume to 2 down price weeks on rising volume). It has the credentials and now just needs to show us the move.
Volume: 797.642K Avg Volume: 485.5K
BUY POINT: $27.48 Volume=725K Target=$32 Stop=$25.78
POSITION: EFQ JE - Oct. $25c (76 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/efii.html
Play Date: 05/03/2004
LEXG (Lexicon Genetics--$7.17; +0.1; no options): Biopharma research for disease control
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/lexg.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Big volume jump Tuesday but it backed off Wednesday as LEXG tapped the 50 day EMA on the low (6.75) and rebounded to post a gain. A solid pattern and a good shakeout in the handle to its 15 week base. Strong 4 to 1 accumulation in the pattern with money flow rising even as the stock moves laterally and lower on fading volume. Another one that looks ready.
Volume: 200.263K Avg Volume: 231.59K
BUY POINT: $7.62 Volume=369K Target=$9.15 Stop=$7.09
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/lexg.html
Play Date: 05/10/2004
MYK (Mykrolis--$15.26; +0.2; optionable): Scientific & technical Instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/myk.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Money flow is blowing through the roof, and MYK looks ready to follow it and head toward that all-time high. A solid 12 week base with a nice handle formed on lower volume. Volume is starting to creep up the this week as it held its ground, a sign of pressure building for the breakout. Positive 5 to 4 accumulation. This money flow is really outstanding.
Volume: 216.6K Avg Volume: 209.272K
BUY POINT: $15.62 Volume=319K Target=$18.75 Stop=$14.53
POSITION: MYK JC - Oct. $15c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/myk.html
Play Date: 05/08/2004
PSYS (Psychiatric Solutions--$23.45; +0.32; no options): Specialized health services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/psys.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Hit the buy point Wednesday, but volume was not there yet, and it was backing off later in the session so we let it pass. Still a very solid pattern and we are just waiting for that breakaway move on continued strong volume. Very nice 9 week base consolidating a strong March to March run. Excellent money flow and relative strength is making the breakout ahead of price, a very bullish signal. An 'A' rated stock as far as earnings and sales.
Volume: 248.322K Avg Volume: 156.954K
BUY POINT: $23.85 Volume=300K Target=$28 Stop=$22.18
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/psys.html
Play Date: 05/01/2004
SLXP (Salix Pharmaceuticals--$31.69; +1.16; optionable): Drug products
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/slxp.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Got a bit shaky to start the week, dropping toward the 50 day EMA (29.15), but catching itself Tuesday and bouncing back on strong volume. Continued higher Wednesday but volume backed way off. Nice recovery. SLXP broke from an 8 week pattern in late March, rallied to 32, and then formed a short flying plateau. Excellent 6 to 1 accumulation in the base has set up the breakout, and money flow that continues to move higher ahead of the price. After that shakeout it looks ready to make the breakout move.
Volume: 106.756K Avg Volume: 186.727K
BUY POINT: $32.06 Volume=350K Target=$37.88 Stop=$30.88
POSITION: PQN GF - July $30c (61 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/slxp.html
Play Date: 05/10/2004
WWCA (Western Wireless--$24.4; +0.12; optionable): Telecom wireless
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wwca.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Still working on that nice handle to its 12 week base, testing laterally over the simple 50 day MA (23.50) on lower volume. This is more of a trend reversal gap as trending lower since February to the end of April. WWCA gapped over the simple 50 day MA last Wednesday on huge trade after announcing strong quarterly results. It has held that move on this test and looks very good here with excellent money flow moving higher ahead of price. Positive 4 to 3 accumulation. Looking for WWCA to follow that money flow higher..
Volume: 1.567M Avg Volume: 1.684M
BUY POINT: $25.22 Volume=2.7M Target=$29 Stop=$23.45
POSITION: WRQ HE - Aug. $25c (44 delta) or WRQ HX - Aug. $22.50c (68 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/wwca.html
Downside:
Play Date: 05/08/2004
ESST (ESS Technology--$11.87; -0.36; optionable): Semiconductors
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/esst.html
STATUS: Put. ESST has made the test we were looking for, moving higher Tuesday, but on below average volume. Wednesday it gapped slightly higher and but then sold off. It tried to recoup its losses but still closed lower on the session on rising, above average volume. Still mired in its downtrend, and we are looking for it to fall from here, chasing that money flow lower. Still under distribution.
Volume: 861.147K Avg Volume: 726.59K
BUY POINT: $11.64 Volume=825K Target=$9.88 Stop=$12.11
POSITION: SEQ SV - July $12.50p (-60 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/esst.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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