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trade stock, stock split
Begin part 2 of 2
THE PLAYS
NOC and BPOP announced splits Wednesday.
We have watched NOC for years, trying to come up with a potential split date. It has been as high as $135 but no split. It announced one Wednesday and managed to pullback up to the 50 day EMA after slicing through that level earlier this week. It posted a modest gain but the technical pattern is not there yet. In this market, the best split moves come from solid stocks in solid technical patterns.
BPOP is a stock we have owned over the past 2 years as it made a nice trend higher. It double topped at 48 in December and January, and that started the current downtrend. It is not in position for buying at this point as it is in a steady downtrend below the 10 and 18 day EMA. We looked at it as a pre-announcement play last year when it was in an uptrend. This split announcement may not do a lot for the stock right now. It needs to break this downtrend and complete a base.
NEW PLAYS:
New Leader Plays: May turn into a split, but a solid stock ready to move.
Play Date: 05/12/2004
MXIM (Maxim Integrated--$48.41; -0.90; optionable): Semiconductors
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mxim.html
STATUS: Double bottom. MXIM is approaching the middle 'hump' in its 12 week base. Volume surged the past two weeks as it bottomed on the right leg of the base and started back up. It cleared the 50 day EMA (47.79) four sessions back on very strong trade and has eased back on lower trade Wednesday, tapping the 200 day SMA (47.34) on the low and rebounding to recoup most of its loss for the session. Looking for the stock to resume the move. Chips were lagging somewhat today on the rebound; want to see strong volume and a clean breakaway move.
Volume: 8.462M Avg Volume: 6.011M
BUY POINT: $50.12 Volume=9M Target=$55.95 Stop=$48.55
POSITION: XIQ HJ - Aug. $50c (44 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/mxim.html
Continuing Pre-Split Plays:
Play Date: 05/11/2004
MOGN (MGI Pharmaceuticals--$63.36; +2.37; optionable): Drugs. Splits 2:1 on 6-10-04
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mogn.html
STATUS: 50 day EMA test. Solid jump off the 50 day EMA (60.05) on solid above average volume. Great test, and a solid bounce underway. Still a buy on this move. MOGN has run well this year after a breakout in January, working up the 10 and 18 day EMA to late April. The 50 day EMA test after such a run is typical for a strong stock after a strong breakout and run up the short term MA.
Volume: 963.244K Avg Volume: 750K
BUY POINT: New: $63.55 (orig. $62.38) Volume=900K Target=$69 Stop=$58.62
POSITION: QOG GL - July $60c (58 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/mogn.html
New Buy point on a continuing play.
Play Date: 05/12/2004
NXTP (Nextel Partners--$14.58; -0.32; optionable): Wireless communications
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nxtp.html
STATUS: Test breakout. NXTP never formed a handle to its 15 week cup, and after a strong breakout move last week it is coming back to test that move, forming the handle it never had. Volume is still strong but has backed off from the breakout levels. It fell back to test the 10 day on the Wednesday low (14.37), where it found support and rebounded to cut some of the losses. Strong 5 to 2 accumulation in the pattern with money flow surging ahead of price.
Volume: 3.849M Avg Volume: 2.131M
BUY POINT: $15.28 Volume=3M Target=$18.12 Stop=$14.32
POSITION: KTU HC - Aug. $15c (53 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/nxtp.html
CONTINUING PLAYS
* * SPREADSHEET DOWNLOAD * * *
The following link is to a spreadsheet download of the continuing play table. It will allow subscribers to sort the data for your personal investment use. This is a service to our subscribers only, and no other use of the information is authorized. Simply click on the link, enter your username and password, and download the spreadsheet!
http://stocksplits.net/ssr/table.php
You will need your password. If you need help click on this link and our automated system will email it to you immediately once you fill in your email address:
http://www.investmenthouse.com/rescue/rescue.php3
LEGEND FOR CONTINUING PLAY TABLE
DATE: date play first appeared on report.
PLAY: Denotes the type of pattern or play.
Upside play types: A Wedge=Ascending triangle/wedge; BO=Breakout; Cup=Cup base; Cup hdl=Cup w/handle; DB hdl=Double bottom w/handle; Dbl btm=Double bottom; Flat=Flat base; FlyPlat=Flying Plateau; Pennant=Pennant; Rv H&S=Reverse head & shoulders; Saucer=Saucer base; Test 18=Testing 18 day MVA; Test 50=Testing 50 day MVA; Test BO=Testing the breakout (could be 10 day MVA test, etc.)
Downside play types: CCall=Covered Call; DWedge=Descending triangle/wedge; Dbl Top=Double top; H&S=Head & shoulders; Put (generic downside);
PIVOT=Buy point
Tgt=Target stock price for the play. Applies to stock and options.
Vol=Volume for the most recent session.
TgtV=Target volume to enter the play.
Stop=Stop advisory point. This is advisory and we may or may not exit a play if it hits this level depending upon market conditions.
PLAY STATUS: Buy not hit (stock has not hit buy point); Buy not issued (stock has hit buy point but did not enter due to weak volume, poor intraday action, poor market action); Current (ongoing play already entered); Entered today (entered the play that session); Exited (closed the position); Target hit (play hit initial target; will note if took all or partial gain or let run further); Trailing stop (exited using a trailing stop loss).
Upside Plays
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
ACLS 05/11 Rv H&S 11 -0.47 11.82 14 1.5M 1.9M 10.99
Buy Not Hit.
ALOG 04/29 Cup hdl 46.96 -0.59 50.28 57.85 45K 159K 48.05
Buy Not Hit.
AMI 05/06 Cup hdl 20.02 -0.22 21.42 25.68 168K 262K 19.92
Buy Not Hit.
AMT 04/27 Test BO 13.1 -0.1 13.12 16 3.4M 4M 12.44
Buy Not Issued.
APOL 05/11 Test 50 89.6 -0.72 91.72 105 2.2M 3M 87.95
Buy Not Hit.
APOL 01/24 Test 18 89.6 -0.72 73.25 82 2.2M 3M 90.95
APOL 12/01 DB hdl 89.6 -0.72 70.72 82 2.2M 2.9M 90.95
Current.
APOL 11/22 DB hdl 89.6 -0.72 66.54 82 2.2M 2.9M 90.95
Current.
ARIA 05/01 Test BO 10.97 +0.07 12.12 14.55 753K 1.4M 11.27
Buy Not Issued.
ARTI 05/10 DB hdl 24.07 +0.02 25.35 29.15 383K 592K 23.58
Buy Not Issued.
AVO 03/30 Flat 33.23 +0.41 24.98 29.42 545K 334K 32.05
Current.
AVP 05/11 Test 18 83.85 +0.53 83.62 88.88 1.4M 1.8M 81.52
Entered today.
BCR 04/29 Test BO 107.2 +0.54 107.26 120 592K 600K 104.22
Entered today.
BCR 04/16 Test BO 107.2 +0.54 98.93 115 592K 522K 104.96
Current.
BCR 12/17 Rv H&S 107.2 +0.54 80.93 92.95 592K 500K 104.96
Current.
BIIB 04/17 Cup 58.02 +0.45 60.49 72.88 4.9M 7.5M 58.04
Current.
BIO 05/01 Cup hdl 57.01 +0.75 60.22 67.45 59K 156K 59.18
Buy Not Hit.
BLUD 05/08 Test BO 25.2 +0.15 25.62 30 315K 500K 23.92
Buy Not Hit.
CRL 04/24 FlyPlat 44 -0.66 46.83 55 659K 495K 45.12
Current.
DGX 03/20 Cup hdl 82.48 -1.07 86.32 100 883K 973K 82.98
Current.
DRTE 04/20 Flat 17.19 -0.06 18.09 21.45 127K 325K 18.48
Current.
EBAY 03/06 Flat 80.78 +0.91 71.78 82.25 10M 10M 78.02
Current.
EBAY 08/02 PreSplt 80.78 +0.91 53.78 60 10M 9M 78.02
Current.
EBAY 03/08 BO 80.78 +0.91 40.04 46 10M 8M 78.02
Current.
EPIX 04/19 Cup hdl 23.33 -0.42 24.58 29.52 153K 300K 23.48
Current.
ERES 04/29 Test 18 32.62 +0.4 32.95 37.92 607K 1.3M 31.18
Buy Not Issued.
FLIR 05/04 Test BO 44.56 -0.47 46.62 53.62 378K 577K 45.22
Buy Not Issued.
GPRO 05/08 Flat 38.01 -0.29 38.25 44 736K 900K 36.25
Current.
HSY 04/29 Test BO 88.64 -0.19 89.58 98.75 575K 708K 88.72
Current.
HUG 05/01 Test 50 54.5 +0.9 55.32 65 268K 314K 51.45
Buy Not Issued.
IDSY 05/05 Test BO 9.7 -0.27 10.22 12.32 26K 123K 9.48
Buy Not Issued.
IDXX 02/02 DB hdl 61.05 +0.8 50.22 58 244K 500K 60.38
IRM 05/08 Cup hdl 43.79 -0.41 46.02 52.95 205K 417K 44.38
Buy Not Issued.
LXK 05/11 Test 50 92.17 +0.32 92.62 105 1.5M 1.6M 89.88
Buy Not Hit.
LXK 12/30 Rv H&S 92.17 +0.32 83.65 94 1.5M 2M 92.88
Current.
MATK 05/11 Rv H&S 70.79 +2.78 70.18 80 1M 878K 66.28
Entered today.
MOGN 05/11 Test 50 63.36 +2.37 62.38 69 929K 900K 58.62
Buy Not Hit.
MSSN 04/27 Test BO 4.48 +0.23 4.89 5.92 367K 615K 4.48
Current.
MUR 05/05 Test BO 67.11 +0.34 70.98 81 477K 750K 67.42
Buy Not Hit.
NXTP 05/06 Cup 14.58 -0.32 15.22 18.12 3.8M 3M 14.15
Current.
OCLR 05/04 Cup 33.8 +3.34 30.22 34.65 382K 160K 31.94
Current. What a move. Upped the stop.
PCSA 05/06 Cup hdl 17.85 -0.55 20.62 24.75 29K 114K 19.12
Buy Not Hit.
PG 05/11 Test 50 106.14 +0.06 107.25 112.25 3.5M 4M 105.72
Buy Not Hit.
QCOM 04/17 Test 50 63.9 -0.82 66.35 79 17M 14M 66.12
Current.
RMD 04/13 Cup hdl 47.75 -0.04 47.84 54.55 188K 382K 48.42
Current.
SBUX 03/22 Test 50 37.77 -0.36 39 47 3.8M 4.5M 38.12
Current.
SBUX 07/30 Cup 37.77 -0.36 30.35 36.75 3.8M 6M 38.12
Current.
SBUX 07/01 Cup 37.77 -0.36 26.3 30.94 3.8M 6M 38.12
Current.
SFCC 05/06 FlyPlat 37.14 +0.3 38.12 43.55 64K 145K 35.65
Buy Not Hit.
SPAB 02/10 A Wedge 3.92 0 3.49 4.35 53K 451K 4.35
Current.
SSP 05/08 Test 50 102.5 -0.6 104.78 112 75K 225K 103.72
Buy Not Hit.
SSTI 05/04 Test 50 14.45 -0.12 14.58 17.52 2.2M 3M 13.56
Buy Not Issued.
TRMB 05/04 Cup hdl 25.66 -0.39 27.32 31.42 308K 670K 25.41
Buy Not Issued.
UOPX 05/01 Test 50 82.31 +0.19 90.25 103 272K 285K 89.12
Buy Not Hit.
UOPX 11/03 Test 50 82.31 +0.19 71.12 84 272K 315K 84.68
Current.
UOPX 10/25 Test 50 82.31 +0.19 68.95 82 272K 315K 84.68
Current.
URBN 05/08 Flat 45.99 -0.27 48.72 56 953K 972K 45.55
Buy Not Hit.
URBN 03/29 Flat 45.99 -0.27 49.85 56.68 953K 725K 46.68
Current.
WFMI 04/20 Cup 76.75 +0.05 79.58 91 879K 1M 77.48
Current.
XRAY 05/08 FlyPlat 49.47 +0.28 49.76 57.24 565K 735K 47.88
Buy Not Hit.
YHOO 04/07 Cup hdl 27.08 +0.32 27.59 31.38 26M 15M 25.66
Current.
ZBRA 03/06 Test 50 75.72 -0.18 73.48 86.55 360K 517K 70.65
Buy Not Issued.
ZMH 04/17 Rv H&S 79.75 -1.15 82.09 94.48 1.9M 170K 79.88
Current.
Downside Plays
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
$SOX 05/05 Put 461.90 -8.25 456.94 427 0 0 460.15
Buy Not Issued. Held off as SP500 did not break the 200 day. Rebounded, but not as strong as other indexes.
BRL 05/10 Put 44.3 -0.31 43.88 41 1.4M 1.6M 44.22
Buy Not Issued.
PSTIE 04/13 Put 10.56 +0.45 10.62 8.05 177K 275K 11.42
Buy Not Issued.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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