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us stock market, stock watch
Begin part 2 of 2
THE PLAYS
Good movers Friday: ATRM; BPA; EEFT; IDSY; VXGN; VSH
Thursday night play results:
NMSS: Still holding the pattern, but backed off from continuing the breakout on lighter volume.
CYBS: Still working laterally in a nice breakout test.
MCO: Low volume test of the 10 day EMA.
New plays for Monday:
Upside:
Play Date: 05/15/2004
ELN (Elan--$22.25; +2.06; optionable): Drug delivery
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/eln.html
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. A surprise word from the FDA in mid-April gapped ELN higher and kicked off a breakout and subsequent run up the 10 and 18 day EMA. After that strong run from 10 to 24 it has come back to test that breakout, coming back to the 50 day EMA (19.60) on a nice, low volume pullback. This is very typical action for strong stocks: breakout, 4 to 5 bounces up off the 10 or 18 day EMA, and then a test to the 50 day before starting the next run up the short term MA. Friday ELN jumped higher on stronger, above average volume, and it looks ready to start that next run. Excellent money flow and relative strength is turning back up for another breakout, a sign of the stock's market outperformance.
Volume: 7.732M Avg Volume: 9.234M
BUY POINT: $22.68 Volume=10M Target=$26.65 Stop=$21.09
POSITION: ELN JX - Oct. $22.50c (56 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/eln.html
Play Date: 05/15/2004
HOLL (Hollywood.com--$3.66; +0.03; no options): Entertainment industry ticketing, news, data.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/holl.html
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. We have been watching HOLL the past 6 weeks after a breakout in December and a run up the 10 and 18 day EMA. It surged higher off the 18 day in April and then rolled over. After these runs up the short term MA, they get wilder at the end of the run and need to correct. It has spent this time coming back to the 50 day EMA (3.55). As noted, stocks that run higher after the breakout up the short term MA need this test. We will see if it can muster the break higher here. Remember, it has to show a strong volume break through the buy point to earn our money. If it is a continued winner it will provide another strong break higher.
Volume: 34.58K Avg Volume: 120.409K
BUY POINT: $3.82 Volume=175K Target=$4.81 Stop=$3.55
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/holl.html
Downside:
Play Date: 05/15/2004
CTX (Centex--$45.66; +0.42; optionable): Homebuilders
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/ctx.html
STATUS: Put. Peaked in March as the last breakout attempt failed. It has slid lower down the short term MA since, collapsing below the 200 day SMA (47.96) six sessions back on strong volume. It has made a low volume rebound to test that breakdown, stalling out at the 10 day EMA (46.34) on low volume, showing a loose doji below that level Friday. When stocks enter into steady downtrends, the 10 and 18 day EMA become resistance. The break below the 200 day SMA on strong volume is a very important move; it means institutions that use that level to add to positions not only did not step in to add, they started selling. The lower volume rebound shows they are not buying with the same intensity on the way back up, and the stock is thus pretty much destined to roll over unless something dramatic changes.
Volume: 1.606M Avg Volume: 2.144M
BUY POINT: $45.32 Volume=2.4M Target=$42.18 Stop=$46.48
POSITION: CTX SI - July $45p (-40 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/ctx.html
SUBSCRIBER PORTFOLIO: These are stocks subscribers suggest by vote that we put in a portfolio to track and move into the stocks if they perform well. If you have any suggestions for additions or deletions, email us. We don't cover them all each report, just when something interesting is developing.
ALDN, CECO, COH, DNA, EBAY, GTRC, LPNT, TGT
New additions: ALDN; CECO; DNA
ALDN: Currently moving laterally to consolidate a strong break higher in late March. Solid support at 22 that we want to see hold and let it continue a lateral move.
DNA: Just split and trying to set itself back up over the 10 day EMA (60.55). A strong move and a huge gap higher in late April on more good news about its cancer drugs. We are seeing if the split gives people incentive to pick up shares at a 'lower' price.
SUBSCRIBER WATCHLIST
We continually receive ideas for potential plays from subscribers. Many times they are already on our watchlists, other times not. We always take a look and sometimes find a gem or two, or more. We don't necessarily endorse these, but want to provide a forum for subscribers with ideas that may appeal to other subscribers. We may just put on the ticker or we might describe our thoughts as to why or why not we think it is a buy or sell. This is a way we can all learn a bit more and maybe find a few more candidates to make us some good money.
Upside:
Strong breakout in mid-April and has made its second test of the short term MA. Needs more volume as it starts back up.
Downside:
TZA: Massive gap lower last week on volume and now rebounding on lower and lower trade, but unable to even make it back up to the 10 day EMA.
CONTINUING PLAYS
* * SPREADSHEET DOWNLOAD * * *
The following link is to a spreadsheet download of the continuing play table. It will allow subscribers to sort the data for your personal investment use. This is a service to our subscribers only, and no other use of the information is authorized. Simply click on the link, enter your username and password, and download the spreadsheet!
http://investmenthouse.com/daily/table.php
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http://www.investmenthouse.com/rescue/rescue.php3
LEGEND FOR CONTINUING PLAY TABLE
DATE: date play first appeared on report.
PLAY: Denotes the type of pattern or play.
Upside play types: A Wedge=Ascending triangle/wedge; BO=Breakout; Cup=Cup base; Cup hdl=Cup w/handle; DB hdl=Double bottom w/handle; Dbl btm=Double bottom; Flat=Flat base; FlyPlat=Flying Plateau; Pennant=Pennant; Rv H&S=Reverse head & shoulders; Saucer=Saucer base; Test 18=Testing 18 day MVA; Test 50=Testing 50 day MVA; Test BO=Testing the breakout (could be 10 day MVA test, etc.)
Downside play types: CCall=Covered Call; DWedge=Descending triangle/wedge; Dbl Top=Double top; H&S=Head & shoulders; Put (generic downside);
PIVOT=Buy point
Tgt=Target stock price for the play. Applies to stock and options.
Vol=Volume for the most recent session.
TgtV=Target volume to enter the play.
Stop=Stop advisory point. This is advisory and we may or may not exit a play if it hits this level depending upon market conditions.
PLAY STATUS: Buy not hit (stock has not hit buy point); Buy not issued (stock has hit buy point but did not enter due to weak volume, poor intraday action, poor market action); Current (ongoing play already entered); Entered today (entered the play that session); Exited (closed the position); Target hit (play hit initial target; will note if took all or partial gain or let run further); Trailing stop (exited using a trailing stop loss).
Upside Plays
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
ARRY 05/05 Test BO 9.83 -0.07 11.65 13.98 65K 369K 10.83
Buy Not Hit. Continue to move down below the 18 day MVA on low volume. The stock has not made the move we were looking for so will drop, but will keep our eye on it.
ATRM 05/08 Test BO 8.83 +1.45 8.82 10.55 893K 177K 8.18
Entered today. Tested the 18 day MVA and rallied for an explosive move on excellent volume.
BEIQ 05/08 Cup 23.42 -1.01 24.12 28 126K 124K 22.43
Current. Volatile sessionw with 22.55 at the low and 25 at the high. Pull back holding the 10 day MVA on much lower, but above average volume. Routine pull back testing the break out.
BPA 05/11 Test BO 8.38 +0.76 6.94 8.32 363K 153K 7.72
Target Hit. Took some of the money off the table as stock made another great move up the 10 day MVA on stronger above average volume.
CEN 05/08 Cup hdl 21.62 -0.25 22.58 26 350K 1.1M 21.58
Buy Not Hit. Gapped up at the open, but gave it back tapping 21.33 at the low and rallied holding just below the 18 day MVA on very low volume. Still in good shape.
CRZO 05/12 Test BO 8.5 -0.1 9.08 10.95 53K 125K 8.46
Buy Not Hit. Continue to pull back tapping 8.25 at the low and rallied holding the 18 day MVA on very low volume. Testing the break out.
CULS 04/24 A Wedge 5.71 -0.03 7.19 9 25K 200K 6.59
Current. Continue to make a lateral move showing a doji on very low volume.
CVNS 03/31 Flat 12.99 +0.39 14.85 17.45 84K 210K 13.76
Current. Tested the 50 day MVA and rallied for a nice gain holding the 18 day MVA on low volume. Moving up on rising volume after testing the 50 day MVA.
CYBS 05/13 Test BO 7.51 -0.18 8.06 9.72 118K 645K 7.48
Buy Not Hit. Pull back tapping 7.35 at the low and rallied holding above the 10 day MVA on very low volume. Still in good shape.
CYTO 05/03 Test BO 13.79 -0.16 15.28 18.35 194K 150K 14.21
Buy Not Hit. Pull back tapping 12.85 at the low (simple 50 day MVA) making a fierce rally holding above support on very strong volume surge. Testing the break out.
EBAY 03/06 Flat 78.95 -0.48 71.78 82.25 8.3M 10M 78.02
Current. Tapped the 10 day MVA at the intraday high, but gave it back showing a doji below the 18 day MVA on lower, but average volume. Continues to test the break out.
EBAY 12/12 Test 18 78.95 -0.48 34.72 46 8.3M 12M 78.02
Current.
EBAY 10/15 Test 50 78.95 -0.48 31.22 46 8.3M 12M 78.02
Current.
EEFT 05/10 A Wedge 21.08 +0.69 20.67 24.75 496K 425K 19.77
Current. Tested the 18 day and rallied for a nice gain as stock moves up the 10 day MVA on excellent volume surge.
FIX 05/04 Flat 7.09 +0.23 7.55 9.38 40K 224K 7.05
Buy Not Hit. Nice move up holding the 10 day MVA on low volume, however stock just has not made the move we were looking for so will drop, but will watch to see if it will rebound.
GNSC 04/28 Dbl btm 4.03 -0.12 4.02 4.98 117K 172K 3.76
Current. Tapped 3.85 at the high, but gave it all back showing a doji just above the 10 day MVA on average volume. Still in uptrend.
HLEX 05/06 Cup hdl 14 -0.15 14.64 17.55 598K 300K 13.62
Current. Pull back tapping 12.80 at the low and made a fierce rally showing a doji on stronger above average volume. Testing the break out.
IDSY 05/05 Test BO 10.48 +0.69 10.48 12.54 118K 123K 9.75
Entered today. Bounced off the 10 day MVA and rallied for a great move on stronger, but average volume.
LPNT 05/12 Cup hdl 36.59 -0.34 37.25 43 409K 700K 35.42
Buy Not Issued. Tapped 37.03 a the day's high, but gave it back showing a doji on lower, below average volume.
LPNT 08/09 Rv H&S 36.59 -0.34 0 0 409K 1.3M 33.88
MEDX 04/20 Flat 9.05 -0.24 10.17 12.32 804K 1.6M 9.72
Current. Pull back tapping 8.94 at the low and rallied holding below the 50 day MVA, but above support.
MEM 04/28 Cup 2.36 +0.04 2.68 3.59 139K 1M 2.52
Current. Continue with lateral move along the 50 day MVA showing a doji on very low volume.
MICU 04/27 Flat 22.25 -0.31 24.19 28.55 204K 460K 22.68
Current. Continue to move down below the 50 day MVA on very low volume. Holding above support at 22
NABI 04/05 A Wedge 16.65 -0.38 16.68 20.25 263K 950K 16.78
Current. Pull back holding below the 18 day MVA, but above support at 16.42.
NAVR 04/09 Flat 9.84 -0.27 7.43 9.12 295K 733K 9.28
Current. Pull back testing the 10 day MVA and rallied on low volume. Still in uptrend.
NMSS 05/13 Test BO 8 -0.37 9.06 10.88 240K 550K 8.32
Buy Not Hit. Ease back holding at support on lower, below average volume. Testing the break out.
NTRT 05/11 Cup hdl 13.07 -0.36 13.25 15.92 59K 175K 12.44
Buy Not Issued. Pull back testing the 18 day MVA and rallied holding above the 10 day MVA on low volume. Still in uptrend pattern.
NXTP 05/12 Cup hdl 14.57 -0.38 15.28 18.12 1.1M 3M 14.32
Buy Not Hit. Pull back holding the 10 day MVA on much lower, below average volume. Testing the break down.
OLGC 04/29 Dbl btm 8.24 -0.06 8.58 10.25 86K 295K 8.05
Buy Not Issued. Tapped 8.43 at the intraday high, but gave it all back showing a doji just above the 18 day MVA on higher, but still below average volume. Continue to test the break out. May test back to 8.10
RDEN 05/01 A Wedge 22.29 -0.53 22.34 26.68 146K 185K 22.48
Current. Pull back holding below the 18 day MVA, but above support at 22 on stronger, but average volume. May test back to support.
REV 05/10 Cup hdl 3 -0.12 3.65 4.55 1.6M 2.3M 3.24
Buy Not Hit. Continue to move down showing a doji under the 50 day MVA on rising volume. The stock has not made the move we were looking for so will drop, but will keep our eye on it.
RWY 04/22 Cup hdl 9.65 +0.12 9.67 11.52 83K 141K 9.38
Current. bounced off the 10 day MVA and rallied on higher, but still below average volume. Moving up after routine pull back
SBUX 07/30 Cup 38.04 +0.19 30.35 36.75 2.2M 6M 38.12
Current. Tapped 38.53 at the high, but gave most of it back holding the 50 day MVA on lower, below average volume. Holding at resistance.
SBUX 07/01 Cup 38.04 +0.19 26.3 30.94 2.2M 6M 38.12
Current.
SNTS 05/01 Cup hdl 12.3 +0.25 13.05 15.72 21K 135K 12.14
Buy Not Hit. Moving up the 10 day MVA on low volume. Still in good shape.
SONE 05/05 Cup hdl 8.49 -0.36 9.22 11 341K 625K 11.48
Buy Not Hit. Pull back holding just above support at 8.46, but below the 18 day MVA on higher, but still below average volume. May test back to support. Needs to hold here or will look to drop.
TGT 08/09 Flat 43 -0.17 41.45 50 3.8M 5.7M 44.28
TRFX 04/20 Test BO 6.73 -0.07 7.02 8.45 38K 250K 6.53
Buy Not Issued. Pull back tapping 6.60 at the low and rallied holding just below the 18 day MVA on low volume. Still in the pattern.
USPI 05/03 Cup 36.17 -0.16 36.88 42.75 117K 370K 35
Buy Not Hit. Pull back testing the 18 day MVA and rallied holding just above the 10 day MVA on lower, below average volume. Moving up after testing the break out.
VARI 05/11 Rv H&S 42.27 +0.24 42.88 49.35 178K 308K 41.12
Buy Not Issued. Volatile sessionw tihe 41.31 at the low and 43 at the high. Showing a doji just above the 10 day MVA on average volume. Making a lateral move.
VXGN 04/28 Cup hdl 16.36 +1.26 14.98 17.25 1.9M 1.1M 15.05
Current. Tested the 18 day MVA and rallied for a great move up the 10 day MVA on excellent volume surge. Moving up on rising volume after testing the break out.
VXGN 04/19 Cup hdl 16.36 +1.26 13.58 16.15 1.9M 1.1M 15.05
Current.
WMB 05/04 Cup hdl 11.17 +0.14 11.08 13.25 3.4M 5.4M 10.42
Current. Continue to move up the 10 day MVA on average volume. Needs to clear resistance at 11.30.
WMGI 04/29 Cup hdl 33.33 -0.21 35.41 40.85 90K 373K 33.05
Current. Pull back holding just below the 18 day MVA on very low volume. Testing the break out.
WOOF 02/23 Cup hdl 41.79 +0.24 31.24 37 360K 296K 39.91
Current. Continue to move up the 10 day MVA showing a doji on lower, but average volume.
Downside Plays
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
BG 05/01 Put 34.92 -0.28 37.65 34.45 804K 884K 35.71
Continue to move down the 10 day MVA on above average volume.
EMIS 05/10 Put 5.17 +0.11 4.98 4 122K 145K 5.22
Current. Rallied on stronger above average volume, but held at resistance at the 10 day MVA. May test up to next resistance level at 5.50.
MCO 05/13 Put 63.7 +0.43 63.15 60.42 599K 804K 64.22
Entered today. Gapped down at the open, but made a relief rally testing resistance at the 10 day MVA, but could not hold the gain
VSH 05/08 Put 18.16 -0.47 18.45 16.55 2.3M 2.6M 18.97
Current. Nice move down the 10 day MVA on stronger above average volume. needs to break through support here.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and The Daily Staff
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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