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stock recommendation, stock option
Begin part 2 of 2
THE PLAYS:
Good movers Friday: ATRM; BPA; EEFT; IDSY; MSSN
Thursday night play results:
NMSS: Still holding the pattern, but backed off from continuing the breakout on lighter volume
WITS: Fell back on lower volume, but still very solid.
DHR: Nice doji below the 10 day EMA.
MCO: Low volume test of the 10 day EMA.
POG: Tapped the 50 day on the high and slipped back. Looks ready to fail.
New Plays:
Upside:
Play Date: 05/15/2004
BR (Burlington Resources--$67.30; +2.15; optionable): Independent oil and gas
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/br.html
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. BR is one of the stronger oil and gas stocks, and it is making one of its periodic 50 day EMA tests as it rallies following its late December breakout. It came under some pressure last week as the oil stocks dumped lower, but it held the 50 day EMA (64.29) and has rebounded nicely. Looking for more volume to come in as it continues the move, but this one has a lot of support from institutions and we are ready to move back in ahead of the split.
Volume: 1.474M Avg Volume: 1.459M
BUY POINT: $67.57 Volume=1.7M Target=$73.62 Stop=$66.12
POSITION: BR HM - Aug. $65c (71 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/br.html
Play Date: 05/15/2004
ELN (Elan--$22.25; +2.06; optionable): Drug delivery
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/eln.html
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. A surprise word from the FDA in mid-April gapped ELN higher and kicked off a breakout and subsequent run up the 10 and 18 day EMA. After that strong run from 10 to 24 it has come back to test that breakout, coming back to the 50 day EMA (19.60) on a nice, low volume pullback. This is very typical action for strong stocks: breakout, 4 to 5 bounces up off the 10 or 18 day EMA, and then a test to the 50 day before starting the next run up the short term MA. Friday ELN jumped higher on stronger, above average volume, and it looks ready to start that next run. Excellent money flow and relative strength is turning back up for another breakout, a sign of the stock's market outperformance.
Volume: 7.732M Avg Volume: 9.234M
BUY POINT: $22.68 Volume=10M Target=$26.65 Stop=$21.09
POSITION: ELN JX - Oct. $22.50c (56 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/eln.html
Play Date: 05/15/2004
ISSC (Innovative Solutions--$18.87; +0.60; no options): Scientific & technical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/issc.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Broke from a 4 month cup base to start May, rallying up to 19.85 on the breakout move. It has tested the breakout with an intraday reach down to the 50 day EMA (16.13) and then exploded back up to hold the 18 day EMA (17.51). Friday it was starting the next run though volume remained below average. Looks solid with strong money flow and relative strength breaking out is a sign ISSC is outperforming the market. Solid 6 to 3 accumulation in the base (6 up price weeks on rising volume to 3 down price weeks on rising volume) set up a good foundation for the move.
Volume: 80.918K Avg Volume: 89.545K
BUY POINT: $19.08 Volume=134K Target=$22.88 Stop=$17.74
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/issc.html
Downside:
Play Date: 05/15/2004
CTX (Centex--$45.66; +0.42; optionable): Homebuilders
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/ctx.html
STATUS: Put. Peaked in March as the last breakout attempt failed. It has slid lower down the short term MA since, collapsing below the 200 day SMA (47.96) six sessions back on strong volume. It has made a low volume rebound to test that breakdown, stalling out at the 10 day EMA (46.34) on low volume, showing a loose doji below that level Friday. When stocks enter into steady downtrends, the 10 and 18 day EMA become resistance. The break below the 200 day SMA on strong volume is a very important move; it means institutions that use that level to add to positions not only did not step in to add, they started selling. The lower volume rebound shows they are not buying with the same intensity on the way back up, and the stock is thus pretty much destined to roll over unless something dramatic changes.
Volume: 1.606M Avg Volume: 2.144M
BUY POINT: $45.32 Volume=2.4M Target=$42.18 Stop=$46.48
POSITION: CTX SI - July $45p (-40 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/ctx.html
Play Date: 05/15/2004
JCI (Johnson Controls--$52.73; +0.23; optionable): Auto parts
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/jci.html
STATUS: Put. A major plunge started in late April as JCI fell tot eh 200 day SMA (54.66), tried to hold, but then cascaded lower a week back. When as stock fails to hold at the 200 day SMA that is something to take note of. Institutions typically use the 200 day to buy into stocks they hold and want to continue to own. When a stock breaks the 200 day and does so on volume, not only are institutions not buying it, they are actively dumping it. The low volume bounce up to the 10 day EMA (53.31) the past week indicates that the selling abated, but the buyers were not that strong, not nearly as strong as the sellers. Thursday and Friday volume was below average as JCI tapped at the 10 day Friday and then slipped from its high, showing a loose doji. We are viewing this as an indication the rebound is ending and the stock is preparing to fall back once again.
Volume: 885.4K Avg Volume: 860.272K
BUY POINT: $52.55 Volume=1.3M Target=$50 Stop=$53.55
POSITION: JCI SX - July $52.50p (-44 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/jci.html
CONTINUING PLAY LIST
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http://investmenthouse.com/ihalerts/table.php
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http://www.investmenthouse.com/rescue/rescue.php3
LEGEND FOR CONTINUING PLAY TABLE
DATE: date play first appeared on report.
PLAY: Denotes the type of pattern or play.
Upside play types: A Wedge=Ascending triangle/wedge; BO=Breakout; Cup=Cup base; Cup hdl=Cup w/handle; DB hdl=Double bottom w/handle; Dbl btm=Double bottom; Flat=Flat base; FlyPlat=Flying Plateau; Pennant=Pennant; Rv H&S=Reverse head & shoulders; Saucer=Saucer base; Test 18=Testing 18 day MVA; Test 50=Testing 50 day MVA; Test BO=Testing the breakout (could be 10 day MVA test, etc.)
Downside play types: CCall=Covered Call; DWedge=Descending triangle/wedge; Dbl Top=Double top; H&S=Head & shoulders; Put (generic downside);
PIVOT=Buy point
Tgt=Target stock price for the play. Applies to stock and options.
Vol=Volume for the most recent session.
TgtV=Target volume to enter the play.
Stop=Stop advisory point. This is advisory and we may or may not exit a play if it hits this level depending upon market conditions.
PLAY STATUS: Buy not hit (stock has not hit buy point); Buy not issued (stock has hit buy point but did not enter due to weak volume, poor intraday action, poor market action); Current (ongoing play already entered); Entered today (entered the play that session); Exited (closed the position); Target hit (play hit initial target; will note if took all or partial gain or let run further); Trailing stop (exited using a trailing stop loss).
Upside Plays
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
ACLS 05/11 Rv H&S 10.62 -0.3 11.82 14 1.1M 1.9M 10.99
Buy Not Hit. Continue to pull back below the 50 day MVA on below average volume. The stock has not made the move we were looking for so will drop, but will keep our eye on it.
AMT 04/27 Test BO 13 -0.25 13.65 16.35 1.3M 4M 12.78
Buy Not Issued. Pull back tapping 12.90 at the low and rallied holding the 18 day MVA on higher, but still below average volume. Still in the pattern.
ARRY 05/05 Test BO 9.83 -0.07 11.65 13.98 65K 369K 10.83
Buy Not Hit. Continue to move down below the 18 day MVA on low volume. The stock has not made the move we were looking for so will drop, but will keep our eye on it.
ARTI 05/10 DB hdl 23.68 -0.51 25.35 29.15 159K 592K 23.58
Buy Not Issued. Pull back tapping 23.45 at the low and rallied holding above the 18 day MVA on very low volume. Testing the break out.
ASKJ 05/12 Test 50 37.23 -1.12 38.55 43.98 3.4M 5.4M 36.22
Current. Pull back on lower, below average volume. Routine pull back after nice bounce off the 50 day MVA.
ATRM 05/08 Test BO 8.83 +1.45 8.82 10.55 893K 177K 8.18
Entered today. Tested the 18 day MVA and rallied for an explosive move on excellent volume.
BCR 12/17 Rv H&S 108.07 +1.82 80.93 92.95 457K 500K 105.72
Current. Tested the 18 day MVA and rallied moving up the 10 day MVA on lower, but still above average volume. Needs to break resistance at 111.
BIIB 04/17 Cup 58.5 +0.02 60.49 72.88 4M 7.5M 58.04
Current. Tapped 57.20 at the low and rallied showing a tight doji on higher, but average volume. Needs to break through resistance at 60.77.
BPA 05/11 Test BO 8.38 +0.76 6.94 8.32 363K 153K 7.72
Target Hit. Took some of the money off the table as stock made another great move up the 10 day MVA on stronger above average volume.
CDIS 04/24 Cup hdl 28.68 +0.19 28.23 33.78 444K 475K 28.28
Current. Tested the 18 day MVA and rallied showing a tight doji on lower, but average volume. Moving up the 10 day MVA. Came off the day's igh of 29.66.
CEN 05/08 Cup hdl 21.62 -0.25 22.58 26 350K 1.1M 21.58
Buy Not Hit. Gapped up at the open, but gave it back tapping 21.33 at the low and rallied holding just below the 18 day MVA on very low volume. Still in good shape.
CRL 04/24 FlyPlat 44.55 -0.22 46.83 53.85 288K 495K 44.15
Current. Pull back testing the 50 day MVA and rallied showing a doji just under the 10 day MVA on lower, below average volume. Moving up after testing the 50 day MVA. Needs to break through resistance at 47.10.
CRZO 05/12 Test BO 8.5 -0.1 9.08 10.95 53K 125K 8.46
Buy Not Hit. Continue to pull back tapping 8.25 at the low and rallied holding the 18 day MVA on very low volume. Testing the break out.
CULS 04/24 A Wedge 5.71 -0.03 7.19 9 25K 200K 6.59
Current. Continue to make a lateral move showing a doji on very low volume.
CYTO 05/03 Test BO 13.79 -0.16 15.28 18.35 194K 150K 14.21
Buy Not Hit. Pull back tapping 12.85 at the low (simple 50 day MVA) making a fierce rally holding above support on very strong volume surge. Testing the break out.
DYAX 04/28 Cup 13.69 -0.26 15.03 17.95 80K 371K 13.62
Current. Pull back tapping 13.50 at the low and rallied holding the 10 day MVA on very low volume. Needs to break through resistance at 14.98.
EEFT 05/10 A Wedge 21.08 +0.69 20.67 24.75 496K 425K 19.77
Current. Tested the 18 day and rallied for a nice gain as stock moves up the 10 day MVA on excellent volume surge.
FSH 03/29 Flat 54.49 -0.96 54.52 62.75 1.4M 1.6M 57.02
Trailing Stop. Tanked below the 50 day MVA on stronger above average volume.
GNSC 04/28 Dbl btm 4.03 -0.12 4.02 4.98 117K 172K 3.76
Current. Tapped 3.85 at the high, but gave it all back showing a doji just above the 10 day MVA on average volume. Still in uptrend.
HLEX 05/06 Cup hdl 14 -0.15 14.64 17.55 598K 300K 13.62
Current. Pull back tapping 12.80 at the low and made a fierce rally showing a doji on stronger above average volume. Testing the break out.
IDSY 05/05 Test BO 10.48 +0.69 10.48 12.54 118K 123K 9.75
Entered today. Bounced off the 10 day MVA and rallied for a great move on stronger, but average volume.
IDXX 02/02 DB hdl 61.88 -0.02 50.22 58 183K 500K 60.38
Beginning to make a lateral move just above the 10 day MVA on low volume.
LPNT 05/12 Cup hdl 36.59 -0.34 37.25 43 409K 700K 35.42
Buy Not Issued. Tapped 37.03 a the day's high, but gave it back showing a doji on lower, below average volume.
MATK 05/11 Rv H&S 70.37 -0.62 70.18 80 653K 878K 67.12
Current. Pull back tapping 63.20 at the intraday low and rallied showing a doji on average volume. Still in uptrend.
MCHP 05/05 Test 50 28.67 -0.54 31.21 34.75 2M 4M 29.03
Current. Pull back holding just below the 50 day MVA on very low volume. Testing the break out.
MDT 05/03 DB hdl 50.05 -0.95 51.78 59 3.8M 7.5M 49.92
Buy Not Hit. Tanked below the 18 day MVA on rising volume. The stock has not made the move we were looking for so will drop, but will keep our eye on it.
MEDX 04/20 Flat 9.05 -0.24 10.17 12.32 804K 1.6M 9.72
Current. Pull back tapping 8.94 at the low and rallied holding below the 50 day MVA, but above support.
MICU 04/27 Flat 22.25 -0.31 24.19 28.55 204K 460K 22.68
Current. Continue to move down below the 50 day MVA on very low volume. Holding above support at 22
MIPS 04/21 DB hdl 6.53 -0.25 6.82 8.22 119K 339K 6.48
Current. Pull back holding just above support on low volume. Still in good shape.
MSSN 04/27 Test BO 4.52 +0.22 4.89 5.92 236K 615K 4.48
Current. Tapped 4.25 at the low and rallied for a nice gain as stock moves up the 10 day MVA on low volume. Needs to break through resistance at 4.92.
MXIM 05/12 Dbl btm 47.18 -0.86 50.12 55.95 7.2M 9M 48.55
Buy Not Hit. Continue to move down below the 200 day MVA on rising, above average volume. The stock has not made the move we were looking for so will drop, but will keep our eye on it.
MYK 05/10 DB hdl 14.32 -0.56 15.62 18.75 208K 319K 14.53
Buy Not Hit. Thudded down below the simple 50 day MVA on lower, but average volume. The stock has not made the move we were looking for so will drop, but will keep our eye on it.
NMSS 05/13 Test BO 8 -0.37 9.06 10.88 240K 550K 8.32
Buy Not Hit. Ease back holding at support on lower, below average volume. Testing the break out.
NXTP 05/12 Cup hdl 14.57 -0.38 15.28 18.12 1.1M 3M 14.32
Buy Not Hit. Pull back holding the 10 day MVA on much lower, below average volume. Testing the break down.
NXTP 05/06 Cup 14.57 -0.38 15.22 18.12 1.1M 3M 14.15
Current.
OCLR 05/04 Cup 32.94 +0.68 30.22 34.65 231K 160K 31.94
Current. Moving up the 10 day MVA on lower, but above average volume.
PHMD 04/07 DB hdl 3.48 +0.08 3.02 3.82 174K 322K 3.54
Current. Moving up holding the 10 day MVA on slightly higher, but below average volume. Needs to break through resistance here.
PSYS 05/08 Cup hdl 24.5 0 24.54 28.75 154K 300K 22.62
Current. Tapped 23.66 at the low and rallied showing a doji on lower, below average volume. Still in uptrend pattern.
RMD 04/13 Cup hdl 47.93 +0.06 47.84 54.55 124K 382K 47.62
Current. Continue with lateral move under the 18 day MVA showing a tight doji on below average volume.
RWY 04/22 Cup hdl 9.65 +0.12 9.67 11.52 83K 141K 9.38
Current. bounced off the 10 day MVA and rallied on higher, but still below average volume. Moving up after routine pull back
SBUX 03/22 Test 50 38.04 +0.19 39 47 2.2M 4.5M 38.12
Current. Tapped 38.53 at the high, but gave most of it back holding the 50 day MVA on lower, below average volume. Holding at resistance.
SNTS 05/01 Cup hdl 12.3 +0.25 13.05 15.72 21K 135K 12.14
Buy Not Hit. Moving up the 10 day MVA on low volume. Still in good shape.
SPAB 02/10 A Wedge 3.93 +0.03 3.49 4.35 47K 451K 3.88
Current. Tested the 50 day MVA and rallied showing a tight doji on low volume. Continue to make a lateral move.
TRFX 04/20 Test BO 6.73 -0.07 7.02 8.45 38K 250K 6.53
Buy Not Issued. Pull back tapping 6.60 at the low and rallied holding just below the 18 day MVA on low volume. Still in the pattern.
UTHR 04/29 Test BO 23.74 -0.25 25.74 31 102K 465K 24.32
Current. tapped 24.25 at the high (18 day MVA), but gave it back showing a doji on the 50 day MVA on very low volume. Holding at support. Testing the break out.
WITS 05/13 A Wedge 13.87 +0.63 14.32 17.25 286K 510K 13.48
Buy Not Hit. Pull back on lower, below average volume. Holding above support at 13. Needs to break through resistance at 14.46.
WMGI 04/29 Cup hdl 33.33 -0.21 35.41 40.85 90K 373K 33.05
Current. Pull back holding just below the 18 day MVA on very low volume. Testing the break out.
WOOF 02/23 Cup hdl 41.79 +0.24 31.24 37 360K 296K 39.91
Current. Continue to move up the 10 day MVA showing a doji on lower, but average volume.
WWCA 05/10 Test BO 24.7 -0.4 25.22 29 1.3M 2.7M 23.45
Buy Not Issued. Gapped up at the open, but gave it back on lower, below average volume. Needs to break through resistance at 25.18
Downside Plays
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
BG 05/01 Put 34.92 -0.28 37.65 34.45 804K 884K 35.71
Continue to move down the 10 day MVA on above average volume.
BRL 05/10 Put 45.37 +0.77 45.22 41.22 1.1M 1.6M 46.35
Buy Not Issued. Relief bounce holding below resistance at 46. May rally up to this point before rolling over.
DHR 05/13 Put 89.98 +0.01 89.75 86.25 648K 950K 91.65
Entered today. Tapped 90.75 at the high, but gave it back showing a doji on low volume as stock begins to make a lateral move.
ESST 05/08 Put 11.46 -0.52 11.64 9.88 522K 825K 12.11
Buy Not Issued. Continue to move down the 10 day MVA on rising, but still below average volume. Needs low volume rally, before we can enter the play.
HSIC 05/04 Put 68.78 -0.42 69.66 66.12 398K 526K 70.88
Buy Not Issued. Moving down the 10 day MVA on rising, but average volume. The stock has not made the move we were looking for so will drop.
MCO 05/13 Put 63.7 +0.43 63.15 60.42 599K 804K 64.22
Entered today. Relief bounce on low volume. May rally to test resistance at 64.
NTE 05/06 Put 16.72 -0.57 16.76 13.75 686K 1.3M 17.88
Current. Continue to move down the 10 day MVA on rising, but below average volume.
POG 05/13 Put 26.79 +0.39 26.28 24 597K 800K 27.25
Buy Not Hit. Tapped the 50 day MVA at the high, but gave it back showing a doji on low volume. Needs to turn over from here.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your IH Alerts Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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stock recommendation
stock option
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