|
|
us stock market, stock split
Begin part 2 of 3
THE PLAYS
In each report we prepare full write-ups for those plays that look ready to move. Those that have made the move or are still setting up are discussed in the continuing play table. The purpose is to focus on those stocks that are set to move.
NEW PLAYS: This section includes plays from all sections other than pre-announcements. Those are contained in the pre-announcement section.
New Pre-Split Plays:
Play Date: 05/15/2004
BR (Burlington Resources--$67.30; +2.15; optionable): Independent oil and gas
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/br.html
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. BR is one of the stronger oil and gas stocks, and it is making one of its periodic 50 day EMA tests as it rallies following its late December breakout. It came under some pressure last week as the oil stocks dumped lower, but it held the 50 day EMA (64.29) and has rebounded nicely. Looking for more volume to come in as it continues the move, but this one has a lot of support from institutions and we are ready to move back in ahead of the split.
Volume: 1.474M Avg Volume: 1.459M
BUY POINT: $67.57 Volume=1.7M Target=$73.62 Stop=$66.12
POSITION: BR HM - Aug. $65c (71 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/br.html
New Post-Split Plays:
Play Date: 05/15/2004
SHFL (Shuffle Master--$32.01; +0.06; optionable): Gaming devices
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/shfl.html
STATUS: 50 day EMA test. SHFL has made us good money in the past before the announcement and before the split, and it is setting up now with a nice consolidation over the 50 day EMA (31.02) on very low volume. It surged on the split and has since backed off to make this test. Money flow remains very strong, and we are looking for SHFL to make the rebound, following the money flow higher.
Volume: 303.896K Avg Volume: 697.136K
BUY POINT: $32.72 Volume=800K Target=$27.62 Stop=$31.12
POSITION: SVF HF - Aug. $30c (69 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/shfl.html
New Downside Plays:
Play Date: 05/15/2004
JCI (Johnson Controls--$52.73; +0.23; optionable): Auto parts
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/jci.html
STATUS: Put. A major plunge started in late April as JCI fell tot eh 200 day SMA (54.66), tried to hold, but then cascaded lower a week back. When as stock fails to hold at the 200 day SMA that is something to take note of. Institutions typically use the 200 day to buy into stocks they hold and want to continue to own. When a stock breaks the 200 day and does so on volume, not only are institutions not buying it, they are actively dumping it. The low volume bounce up to the 10 day EMA (53.31) the past week indicates that the selling abated, but the buyers were not that strong, not nearly as strong as the sellers. Thursday and Friday volume was below average as JCI tapped at the 10 day Friday and then slipped from its high, showing a loose doji. We are viewing this as an indication the rebound is ending and the stock is preparing to fall back once again.
Volume: 885.4K Avg Volume: 860.272K
BUY POINT: $52.55 Volume=1.3M Target=$50 Stop=$53.55
POSITION: JCI SX - July $52.50p (-44 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/jci.html
New Leader Plays: May turn into a split, but a solid stock ready to move.
Play Date: 05/15/2004
ISSC (Innovative Solutions--$18.87; +0.60; no options): Scientific & technical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/issc.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Broke from a 4 month cup base to start May, rallying up to 19.85 on the breakout move. It has tested the breakout with an intraday reach down to the 50 day EMA (16.13) and then exploded back up to hold the 18 day EMA (17.51). Friday it was starting the next run though volume remained below average. Looks solid with strong money flow and relative strength breaking out is a sign ISSC is outperforming the market. Solid 6 to 3 accumulation in the base (6 up price weeks on rising volume to 3 down price weeks on rising volume) set up a good foundation for the move.
Volume: 80.918K Avg Volume: 89.545K
BUY POINT: $19.08 Volume=134K Target=$22.88 Stop=$17.74
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/issc.html
Continuing Leader Plays:
Play Date: 04/17/2004
BIIB (Biogen Idec--$58.50; +0.02; optionable): Biotechnology
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/biib.html
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. BIIB was struggling some two weeks back as the market sold, but it managed to hold the 50 day EMA (56.05) as a strong stock should , moving up off of that level last week. Friday it rallied to 59.74 but with volume still below average, it could not hold the move. It looks very good, ready to resume the move.
Volume: 3.985M Avg Volume: 4.994M
BUY POINT: $60.49 Volume=7.5M Target=$72.88 Stop=$58.04
POSITION: IHD GL - July $60c (51 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/biib.html
Play Date: 05/12/2004
NXTP (Nextel Partners--$14.57; -0.38; optionable): Wireless communications
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nxtp.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Volume dropped off Thursday and Friday, coming in well below average as the stock holds the 10 day EMA (14.53), forming a nice handle to the 16 week base. Excellent 7 to 2 accumulation in the base (7 up price weeks on rising volume to 2 down price weeks on rising volume). With money flow still rallying ahead of price, we are being patient to let it complete the base and then give us the breakout.
Volume: 1.103M Avg Volume: 2.234M
BUY POINT: $15.28 Volume=3M Target=$18.12 Stop=$14.32
POSITION: KTU HC - Aug. $15c (53 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/nxtp.html
Play Date: 05/13/2004
WITS (Witness Systems--$13.28; -0.59; no options): Optimization software re customer data and workforce performance
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wits.html
STATUS: Ascending triangle. After a decent bounce off the 50 day EMA (12.90), WITS faded Friday on low trade. Still in a very nice 10 week ascending triangle sporting excellent 4 to 0 accumulation and outstanding money flow. Higher and higher lows along the 50 day have set the base for a breakout. Again, these patterns can yield explosive breakouts, so we want to be ready for it.
Volume: 241.576K Avg Volume: 373.818K
BUY POINT: $14.32 Volume=510K Target=$17.25 Stop=$13.48
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/wits.html
Continuing downside plays:
Play Date: 05/13/2004
DHR (Danaher--$89.98; +0.01; optionable): General building materials
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dhr.html
STATUS: Put. Trying to hold 90, showing a very tight, low volume doji below the 10 day EMA (92.07) Friday. The move follows a low volume bounce back from the 50 day EMA (92.32) breach a week back and a high volume selling session Thursday. Ready to continue the fall toward the 200 day (85.65) to give us a nice 50+% gain.
Volume: 648K Avg Volume: 845.09K
BUY POINT: $89.75 Volume=950K Target=$86.25 Stop=$91.65
POSITION: DHR RR - June $90p (-49 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/dhr.html
Play Date: 05/13/2004
ETN (Eaton Corp.--$57.78; +0.18; optionable): Auto parts
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/etn.html
STATUS: Put. Another stock that crashed below the 50 day EMA (58.21) a week back on a high volume drop. It bounced back, but volume started running dry Thursday and Friday, showing another doji at the simple 50 day MA (57.75). Looks ready to resume the move down. A test toward the 200 day SMA (53) give us a nice 50% gain.
Volume: 781.5K Avg Volume: 1.074M
BUY POINT: $57.38 Volume=1.1M Target=$54.38 Stop=$58.02
POSITION: ETN SY - Aug. $65p (-64 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/etn.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
Current Pre-Announcement Plays: In each report we look at the candidates that are in the best patterns ahead of their potential announcements. This focus on leaders in good patterns allows us to make good money even if companies do not announce the split, something that they are still gun-shy of even after the market has made a good recovery as well as the economy. The key with splits now is in the pattern; yes there is a positive move on the announcement, but stocks in this market need to have a good pattern of accumulation to really benefit from a split announcement.
APOL: Forecast 6-12-04 before the open.
CHS: Forecast 5-27-04 after the close. Trying to hold over the 200 day SMA and give us an entry point.
CRL: No announcement 4-28-04. Trying to bounce off the 50 day EMA.
CWTR: Forecast 5-26-04.
DGX: Researching next date and waiting for the breakout.
ESRX: Forecast 5-26-04 with its shareholder meeting. Now it is making the rebound.
FLIR: Nice volume break higher Thursday. Still researching date.
HUG: Forecast 5-25-04 after the close. Holding the 50 day EMA still.
IDXX: Researching next date.
LXK: Researching the next split date. Nice move off the 50 day EMA giving us the next entry point.
MATK: Nice move Wednesday. Still researching the date.
PDCO: Forecast 5-20-2004 before the open.
POOL: No split announced at the shareholder meeting Thursday. Still holding up well.
QCOM: No split announcement on 5-3. Still trying to make the move to retake the 50 day.
RS: Forecast 5-19-04. Continues to struggle below the 50 day EMA and has not given us an entry point yet.
UOPX: Forecast 6-24-04 before the open.
URBN: Forecast 6-1-04 at its shareholder meeting.
WFMI: No split announced 5-5-04 but holding up well at the 50 day EMA.
XRAY: Nice break higher on volume Thursday. Still researching the next date.
ZBRA: Looking for a new date. Finally getting some volume and breaking over 77.
ZMH: No split announced 4-26-04. Holding the 50 day EMA
Full Write-ups: We do not cover all candidates in full in each report, but focus on those ready to make a move or are right at their forecast announcement date. This way we are focused on those stocks ready to make moves.
New Pre-Announcement Plays:
Play Date: 05/15/2004
SIE (Sierra Health Services--$39.74; +0.83; optionable): Health care plans. Forecast to announce a split on 5-20-04 in conjunction with its annual shareholder meeting.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3 for 2 split in April 1998 at a stock price of around $40. The annual shareholder meeting is scheduled for 5-20-04 at 10:00 PT at which time no additional shares will be authorized, but the company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sie.html
STATUS: Ascending triangle breakout. SIE broke out from a six month base in February and rallied up the 10 and 18 day EMA, peaking near 38. The past 6 weeks it has come back to test the 50 day EMA (36.56) and set up a short ascending triangle. The stock broke out Friday on rising, above average volume. Solid money flow and a relative strength breakout show the stock as a leader in the market. Looking to pick it up here as it continues the breakout move.
Volume: 518.1K Avg Volume: 401.227K
BUY POINT: $40.12 Volume=602K Target=$48 Stop=$38.18
POSITION: SIE IH - Sept. $40c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/sie.html
Continuing Pre-Announcement Plays: The same stocks continue to hold up as the market struggles.
Play Date: 01/24/2004
APOL (Apollo Group--$90.46; -0.32; optionable): Education and training. Forecast to announce a split 6-12-04 before the open
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3 for 2 split on 4-5-02 at a stock price of $34.50. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/apol.html
STATUS: 50 day EMA test. Still trying to break from over the 10 and 18 day EMA (91.24). Volume was up Friday but still below average, unable to break the resistance without the volume. Money flow, however, is surging ahead of the price. This is a strong stock, and we are looking for APOL to break over the short term MA and follow the money higher.
Volume: 1.819M Avg Volume: 1.719M
BUY POINT: $91.72 Volume=3M Target=$105 Stop=$87.95
POSITION: OAQ HR - Aug. $90c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/apol.html
Play Date: 05/15/2004
ESRX (Express Scripts--$76.72; +2.69; optionable): Mail order prescriptions. Forecast to announce a split 5-26-04 in conjunction with its shareholder meeting.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a split 5-23-01 after the close at a price of $93. It has two prior splits at $80.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/esrx.html
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. ESRX had sold below the 50 day EMA (75.18), but an analyst upgrade helped gap it back above that key level Friday, and it did it on very solid, above average volume. A good recovery to re-take the breakout move it made in early April as it broke from a long 8.5 month cup with handle base. Want to see continued volume on the move through the buy point to start a position. Would like to see another 50 day EMA test and pick it up off a strong volume rebound, but may not give us that chance.
Volume: 1.585M Avg Volume: 1.25M
BUY POINT: $77.45 Volume=1.9M Target=$87 Stop=$75.38
POSITION: XTQ HO - Aug. $75c (63 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/esrx.html
Play Date: 05/08/2004
URBN (Urban Outfitters--$46.57; +0.53; optionable): Apparel stores. Forecast to announce a split on 6-1-04 with its shareholder meeting where it is set to increase authorized shares.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for 1 split on 8-14-03 in conjunction with a board meeting. The stock price was $46.50.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/u/urbn.html
STATUS: Pennant. Holding the 50 day EMA (46.33) as it works laterally along this level on strong, above average volume. Again, we are being patient and letting it work laterall for a clean break higher on continued strong volume.
Volume: 889.201K Avg Volume: 635.681K
BUY POINT: $48.72 Volume=972K Target=$56 Stop=$45.55
POSITION: URQ IJ - Sept. $50c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/urbn.html
PRE-SPLITS
Play Date: 05/13/2004
ELAB (Eon Labs--$67.42; +0.77; optionable): Drugs. Splits 2:1 on 6-2-04
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/elab.html
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. Starting to rise off the 50 day EMA (65.89), but no volume late in the week to keep the Wednesday reversal going. A good test and hold of the 50 day in the market selling. Stalled Friday at the 18 day EMA (67.62), but looks ready to make the break higher.
Volume: 241.135K Avg Volume: 326.045K
BUY POINT: $67.12 Volume=475K Target=$73 Stop=$65.42
POSITION: ESQ GM - July $65c (61 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/elab.html
Play Date: 04/29/2004
ERES (Eresearch Tech--$31.99; -0.85; optionable): Medical labs. Splits 3:2 on 5-28-04
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/eres.html
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. Continues to work laterally over the 18 day EMA (32.01) on low, below average volume, holding up very well as the market sold off. That is a sign of strength as ERES patiently continues to work through its pattern. Solid action, and an above average volume move through the buy point is what we are waiting for.
Volume: 506.716K Avg Volume: 894.545K
BUY POINT: $32.95 Volume=1.3M Target=$37.92 Stop=$31.18
POSITION: UDB IZ - Sept. $32.50c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/eres.html
Play Date: 05/11/2004
MOGN (MGI Pharmaceuticals--$63.06; +0.05; optionable): Drugs. Splits 2:1 on 6-10-04
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mogn.html
STATUS: 50 day EMA test. A good bounce off the 50 day (60.28) last week stalled some as MOGN tapped at the 50 day EMA but fell back. Still very strong with a lot of good action and volume upside moves. Just looking for another above average volume break higher.
Volume: 672.885K Avg Volume: 730.681K
BUY POINT: $63.92 Volume=900K Target=$70 Stop=$59.88
POSITION: QOG GL - July $60c (58 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/mogn.html
Play Date: 05/11/2004
PG (Procter & Gamble--$106.41; +1.1; optionable): Cleaning products. Splits 2:1 on 6-21-04
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pg.html
STATUS: 50 day EMA test. Nice test of the 50 day EMA (104.96) last wee, and then a good bump higher Friday after an intraday 50 day test, rallying on rising, average volume. Money flow is solid, moving higher ahead of price. Looks ready to make the pre-split move.
Volume: 3.309M Avg Volume: 3.136M
BUY POINT: $107.25 Volume=4M Target=$112.25 Stop=$105.72
POSITION: PG GA - July $105c (67 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/pg.html
POST-SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 05/08/2004
BLUD (Immucor--$25.96; -0.13; optionable): Diagnostic substances
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/blud.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Good move on volume Friday, but closed off the high (26.75). Friday it tried a repeat, but again stalled near the same level, giving back some move but on very low volume. Still quite solid with surging money flow and a relative strength breakout. Just needs more volume on the next move higher.
Volume: 333.545K Avg Volume: 293.636K
BUY POINT: New: $26.38 (orig. $25.62) Volume=500K Target=$30 Stop=$23.92
POSITION: QMQ IE - Sept. $25c (53 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/blud.html
Play Date: 05/08/2004
GPRO (Gen Probe--$37.48; -0.65; optionable): Diagnostic equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gpro.html
STATUS: Cup. Unable to hold the moves either Thursday or Friday. Thursday it jumped on strong, above average volume. Friday volume backed off, so the move had little chance of holding. Still very solid in its 15 week cup; indeed, this action is forming a handle to the base. Money flow continues solidly ahead of price. The stock showed good action in a weak market. A little positive action and it should take off and make the breakout.
Volume: 585.688K Avg Volume: 599.409K
BUY POINT: New: $39.25 (orig. $38.25) Volume=900K Target=$44 Stop=$36.25
POSITION: PSU HH - Aug. $40c (51 delta) or PSU HG - Aug. $35c (66 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/gpro.html
End part 2 of 3
|
us stock market
stock split
|
