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stock recommendation, stock investment information
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS:
Good movers Monday: IDSY; DHR; NTE
Weekend play results:
BR: Trying to continue the move.
ELN: Eased back on lower volume. Still solid.
ISSC: Holding steady in the selling.
CTX: Turning lower but needs more volume.
JCI: Starting the way down.
New Plays:
Upside:
Play Date: 05/17/2004
BEV (Beverly Enterprises--$8.00; +0.22; optionable): Long -term care
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bev.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. BEV is working laterally the past two weeks as the 10 day EMA (7.59) rises to meet it following that strong gap higher to start the month. This is the handle to a 4.5 month base that double bottomed at 6. Good price/volume action in the pattern with volume drying up at the bottom starting in mid-March through the end of April. Then the big gap higher on volume followed by the lateral move on low, below average volume. Excellent money flow surging up ahead of price. Volume jumped back above action Monday as the stock moved up off the 10 day. Often the 10 day triggers the next move higher when it rises to tap the stock price after a gap higher.
Volume: 2.279M Avg Volume: 1.681M
BUY POINT: $8.52 Volume=2.5M Target=$10.25 Stop=$7.92
POSITION: BEV JU - Oct. $7.50c (65 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/bev.html
Play Date: 05/17/2004
JAKK (Jakks Pacific--$16.75; 0.00; optionable): Toys and games
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/jakk.html
STATUS: Breakout test. JAKK exploded out of a 12 week ascending triangle in mid-May. Solid 4 to 2 accumulation (4 up price weeks on rising volume to 2 down price weeks on rising volume) in the base shows the money moving into the stock. The breakout was huge, accompanied by a big relative strength breakout, a strong corroboration of the breakout. Money flow continues to move ahead of price as it makes the current 3 week, very orderly pullback on low volume. It is holding near the 18 day EMA (16.84), showing tight dojis the past two sessions. Looking for a strong volume jump with the stock price to continue the breakout. That is when we move in.
Volume: 177.712K Avg Volume: 265K
BUY POINT: $17.22 Volume=398K Target=$20.65 Stop=$16.01
POSITION: UFF IW - Sept. $17.50c (46 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/jakk.html
Downside:
Play Date: 05/17/2004
BLL (Ball Corp.--$63.77; -1.59; optionable): Packaging and containers
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bll.html
STATUS: Put. After a long uptrend, BLL broke through the 50 day EMA (67.04) to end April. It made a quick test on low volume and failed. Thumping down to 60 on strong trade. It has made its second test, moving up to tap the 18 day EMA (65.63) Friday, and then gapped lower on stronger, above average volume Monday. Still plenty of downside above the 200 day SMA (59.24) to give us a nice 38% or better gain.
Volume: 391.2K Avg Volume: 312.545K
BUY POINT: $63.52 Volume=400K Target=$60.51 Stop=$65.05
POSITION: BLL TM - Aug. $65p (-54 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/bll.html
Play Date: 05/17/2004
LOW (Lowes--$49.68; -0.90; optionable): Home improvement stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/low.html
STATUS: Put. LOW continues its downtrend that started with the November peak. It based out through mid-February, but when it moved up toward the November high it failed without making the breakout. It bounced off the 200 day SMA (54.48) the first try but then broke through in April. It failed a test and has slid down the 10 and 18 day EMA since. Friday it tapped the 18 day EMA (51.22) and then sold on high volume Monday as earnings were decent but not enough to change the downtrend. Looking for further volume selling to enter.
Volume: 5.709M Avg Volume: 3.696M
BUY POINT: $49.49 Volume=5M Target=$47 Stop=$50.92
POSITION: LOW SJ - July $50p (-52 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/low.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your IH Alerts Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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stock recommendation
stock investment information
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