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Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Weekend play results:
ELN: Took a breather Monday on very low volume, holding the short term MA.
HOLL: Low volume as it tests the 50 day EMA.
CTX: Could have used a bit more volume as it fell from the 10 day. Still looks solid.
New plays for Tuesday:
Upside:
Play Date: 05/17/2004
ABM (ABM Industries--$18.39; +0.27; optionable): Facilities services contractor (janitorial, parking, engineering, security, etc.)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/abm.html
STATUS: Flat base. We are looking at ABM again, having kept watching it after it broke below the 50 day EMA (18.13) a week back on some strong trade. It managed the rebound and continues its 17 week base. Solid 5 to 3 accumulation in the pattern (5 up price weeks on rising volume to 3 down price weeks on rising volume). Money flow is excellent and volume jumped sharply Monday as ABM moved back over the 50 day and posted a nice gain. This is actually the handle to a 2 year base. Very solid and once again being patient and waiting for the breakout. Relative strength has already breaking out, a very bullish sign for the stock price to breakout as well.
Volume: 201.6K Avg Volume: 118.045K
BUY POINT: $18.96 Volume=185K Target=$21.85 Stop=$17.92
POSITION: ABM JW - Oct. $17.50c (74 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/abm.html
Play Date: 05/17/2004
BEV (Beverly Enterprises--$8.00; +0.22; optionable): Long -term care
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bev.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. BEV is working laterally the past two weeks as the 10 day EMA (7.59) rises to meet it following that strong gap higher to start the month. This is the handle to a 4.5 month base that double bottomed at 6. Good price/volume action in the pattern with volume drying up at the bottom starting in mid-March through the end of April. Then the big gap higher on volume followed by the lateral move on low, below average volume. Excellent money flow surging up ahead of price. Volume jumped back above action Monday as the stock moved up off the 10 day. Often the 10 day triggers the next move higher when it rises to tap the stock price after a gap higher.
Volume: 2.279M Avg Volume: 1.681M
BUY POINT: $8.52 Volume=2.5M Target=$10.25 Stop=$7.92
POSITION: BEV JU - Oct. $7.50c (65 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/bev.html
Downside:
Play Date: 05/17/2004
BLL (Ball Corp.--$63.77; -1.59; optionable): Packaging and containers
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bll.html
STATUS: Put. After a long uptrend, BLL broke through the 50 day EMA (67.04) to end April. It made a quick test on low volume and failed. Thumping down to 60 on strong trade. It has made its second test, moving up to tap the 18 day EMA (65.63) Friday, and then gapped lower on stronger, above average volume Monday. Still plenty of downside above the 200 day SMA (59.24) to give us a nice 38% or better gain.
Volume: 391.2K Avg Volume: 312.545K
BUY POINT: $63.52 Volume=400K Target=$60.51 Stop=$65.05
POSITION: BLL TM - Aug. $65p (-54 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/bll.html
SUBSCRIBER PORTFOLIO: These are stocks subscribers suggest by vote that we put in a portfolio to track and move into the stocks if they perform well. If you have any suggestions for additions or deletions, email us. We don't cover them all each report, just when something interesting is developing.
ALDN, CECO, COH, DNA, EBAY, GTRC, LPNT, TGT
ALDN: Gapped lower on volume but managed to hold the 50 day EMA. This follows the March breakout from a short triangle base and subsequent run higher. Will see what it does with this test.
DNA: Nice hammer doji at the 18 day EMA on average volume.
COH: Broke below some support at 40 on rising though still below average volume. A test to 38 that holds could be a buy point but we will have to see what the price/volume action does.
GTRC: Edging higher off the 18 day EMA on rising though still below average volume.
SUBSCRIBER WATCHLIST
We continually receive ideas for potential plays from subscribers. Many times they are already on our watchlists, other times not. We always take a look and sometimes find a gem or two, or more. We don't necessarily endorse these, but want to provide a forum for subscribers with ideas that may appeal to other subscribers. We may just put on the ticker or we might describe our thoughts as to why or why not we think it is a buy or sell. This is a way we can all learn a bit more and maybe find a few more candidates to make us some good money.
Upside:
The following was the upside stock from the weekend (left out the ticker).
TMR: Strong breakout in mid-April and has made its second test of the short term MA. Needs more volume as it starts back up.
AH: Nice lateral trading range the past 7 weeks, another lateral move following a big breakout from a similar pattern in late March.
Downside:
BXG: Turned lower from a weak attempt to test the 10 day EMA after a 50 day EMA breakdown a week back. A break below 10 opens the door.
CLB: Blew through the 50 day EMA last week and made a low volume test. Looks ready to roll over.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and The Daily Staff
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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