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Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
In each report we prepare full write-ups for those plays that look ready to move. Those that have made the move or are still setting up are discussed in the continuing play table. The purpose is to focus on those stocks that are set to move.
NEW PLAYS: This section includes plays from all sections other than pre-announcements. Those are contained in the pre-announcement section.
New Pre-Split Plays:
Play Date: 05/18/2004
RIMM (Research in Motion--$99.98; +6.98; optionable): Telecom. Splits 2:1 on 6-7-04
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/rimm.html
STATUS: Pre-split. RIMM has worked laterally in a 10 week pattern. Not the best pattern but this stock can run when it gets some momentum behind it, and Tuesday volume leapt higher as the stock surged. Looking for a break over 100 to give it more momentum to carry it up to the prior high as an initial target to give us a 45% gain with the options.
Volume: 8.949M Avg Volume: 5.18M
BUY POINT: $100.55 Volume=7M Target=$111 Stop=$96.12
POSITION: RUP IT - Sept. $100c (57 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/rimm.html
Play Date: 05/18/2004
PNR (Pentair--$58.70; +1.59; optionable): Manufacturing machinery. Splits 2:1 on 6-9-04
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pnr.html
STATUS: 50 day EMA test. PNR broke out of a 2 year base in February, and has bounced up the 50 day EMA (56.95) as it rallies. It is making its second 50 day test since the breakout. It has been testing the 50 day the past week as volume starts moving higher. Tuesday it started the bounce off this support level on a very good shot of above average volume. Money flow is running up solidly ahead of price, and we are looking for PNR to follow hit higher as it makes nother bounce off the 50 day.
Volume: 518.1K Avg Volume: 310.863K
BUY POINT: $59.06 Volume=466K Target=$63 Stop=$56.88
POSITION: PNR HL - Aug. $60c (46 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/pnr.html
New Post-Split Plays:
Play Date: 05/17/2004
JBHT (JB Hunt Transportation--$31.44; +0.60; optionable): Trucking
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/jbht.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Broke out of a 24 week flat base in early April and rallied to 33.47. In the market selling it has come back to test that move, falling on mostly below average volume. Last week it hit the 50 day (30.14), held, and started to bounce on rising trade. It paused Monday in the selling, but tapped the 50 day on the low and rebounded sharply. Looks ready to continue the breakout move, following strong money flow higher.
Volume: 651.872K Avg Volume: 690.909K
BUY POINT: $31.88 Volume=1.1M Target=$36.75 Stop=$29.88
POSITION: JHQ KF - Nov. $30c (63 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/jbht.html
New Leader Plays: May turn into a split, but a solid stock ready to move.
Play Date: 05/18/2004
INGR (Intergraph--$25.42; +0.81; optionable): System and technical software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/ingr.html
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. INGR has set up a 27 week base sporting solid 8 to 3 accumulation. After a serious drop February through March and explosive jump higher it has formed the right shoulder. Tuesday it jumped off the 18 day EMA (24.82) on very strong, above average volume. Looks ready to make the breakout.
Volume: 828.274K Avg Volume: 385.272K
BUY POINT: $26.02 Volume=600K Target=$31 Stop=$24.68
POSITION: IGQ JE - Oct. $25c (59 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/ingr.html
Continuing Leader Plays:
Play Date: 04/27/2004
AMT (American Tower--$12.90; +0.24; optionable): Telecom
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/amt.html
STATUS: Breakout test. AMT broke out from a 13 week cup base in mid-April, rallying to 13.91 before getting volatile as the market started to sell. Volume faded, however as AMT held some support at 12.50. As it has moved laterally the 50 day EMA (12.45) has risen to meet it. Volume started edging higher as it came off the 50 day. Looking for a strong move through the buy point on much stronger trade.
Volume: 1.635M Avg Volume: 2.253M
BUY POINT: $13.65 Volume=4M Target=$16.35 Stop=$12.78
POSITION: AMT JV - Oct. $12.50c (63 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/amt.html
Play Date: 05/01/2004
ARIA (Ariad Pharma--$10.68; +0.16; optionable): Biotechnology
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/aria.html
STATUS: 50 day EMA test. Explosive breakout in late April, but has faded ever since on mostly very low, below average volume. Showing dojis at the 50 day EMA (10.55) the past three sessions. Volume jumped higher Tuesday, though still below average, indicating it may be ready to start the rebound.
Volume: 744.683K Avg Volume: 904.363K
BUY POINT: $11.55 Volume=1.4M Target=$13.85 Stop=$10.74
POSITION: UAQ HV - Aug. $12.50c (49 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/aria.html
Play Date: 05/10/2004
ARTI (Artisan Components--$24.51; +1.00; optionable): Semiconductor integrated circuits
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/arti.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Volume is kicking higher, moving back above average Tuesday, after ARTI made a very nice pullback in the recent market selling, easing back to the 18 day EMA (23.64) on mostly lower, below average volume. Nice action to form another handle or breakout test to a 12 month base. The last 4 months it has formed a cup with handle, breaking out at the end of April. Accumulation in the recent base is a solid 4 to 2 (4 up price weeks on rising volume to 2 down price volume weeks on rising volume). Volume is now coming in as ARTI finally looks ready to make the next move. We will see if AMAT helps it at all.
Volume: 449.481K Avg Volume: 384K
BUY POINT: $25.35 Volume=592K Target=$29.15 Stop=$23.58
POSITION: UAR IE - Sept. $25c (50 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/arti.html
Play Date: 04/17/2004
BIIB (Biogen Idec--$59.21; +1.06; optionable): Biotechnology
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/biib.html
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. Still moving up off the 50 day EMA test (56.25), but has not got the volume it needs yet. Still setting up as it edges toward the breakout over 60. Need to see volume kicks higher.
Volume: 3.543M Avg Volume: 4.994M
BUY POINT: $60.49 Volume=7.5M Target=$72.88 Stop=$58.04
POSITION: IHD GL - July $60c (51 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/biib.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
Current Pre-Announcement Plays: In each report we look at the candidates that are in the best patterns ahead of their potential announcements. This focus on leaders in good patterns allows us to make good money even if companies do not announce the split, something that they are still gun-shy of even after the market has made a good recovery as well as the economy. The key with splits now is in the pattern; yes there is a positive move on the announcement, but stocks in this market need to have a good pattern of accumulation to really benefit from a split announcement.
APOL: Forecast 6-12-04 before the open.
CHS: Forecast 5-27-04 after the close. Still trying to hold the 200 day SMA and give us an entry point.
CRL: No announcement 4-28-04. Trying to bounce off the 50 day EMA.
CWTR: Forecast 5-26-04.
DGX: Researching next date and waiting for the breakout.
ESRX: Forecast 5-26-04 with its shareholder meeting.
FLIR: Still researching date. Moving laterally over the 10 day after a strong volume move.
GD: Forecast 6-3-04
HUG: Forecast 5-25-04 after the close.
IDXX: Researching next date.
ITW: Forecast 7-20-04
LXK: Researching the next split date. Holding the 50 day EMA.
MATK: Recovering after a dip to the 50 day EMA.
PDCO: Forecast 5-20-2004 before the open.
POOL: Nice 50 day EMA test.
QCOM: No split announcement on 5-3. Working laterally just below the 50 day EMA.
RS: Forecast 5-19-04. Bouncing off support at 32 but not getting the volume.
UOPX: Forecast 6-24-04 before the open.
URBN: Forecast 6-1-04 at its shareholder meeting.
WFMI: No split announced 5-5-04 but looks ready to move up off the 50 day EMA.
XRAY: Researching the next date. Low volume test of the nice move last week.
ZBRA: Looking for a new date. One step forward then one back, but making headway.
ZMH: No split announced 4-26-04. Up off the 50 day and volume started in on Tuesday.
Full Write-ups: We do not cover all candidates in full in each report, but focus on those ready to make a move or are right at their forecast announcement date. This way we are focused on those stocks ready to make moves.
New Pre-Announcement Plays:
Play Date: 05/17/2004
GD (General Dynamics--$94.5; +0.12; optionable): Defense. Forecast to announce a split on 6-3-04 in conjunction with a board meeting or on 7-21-04 in conjunction with earnings.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for 1 split on 3-4-98 in conjunction with a board meeting at a stock price of $85. The annual shareholder meeting was on 5-5-04 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gd.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Volume was up Tuesday but the gain was slight. That makes three sessions of very strong, above average volume as GD approaches the breakout from a nice14 week base sporting positive 4 to 3 accumulation (4 up price weeks on rising volume to 3 down price weeks on rising volume). Money flow continues to move higher ahead of price. Rallied off the 50 day SMA (91.14) starting last week and looks to be taking a breather here, holding the gains and moving laterally. Looking for volume to remain solid as it makes the move through the buy point.
Volume: 1.122M Avg Volume: 791.954K
BUY POINT: $95.74 Volume=1.2M Target=$108 Stop=$91.95
POSITION: GD KS - Nov. $95c (53 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/gd.html
Play Date: 05/18/2004
ITW (Illinois Took Works--$85.48; +0.63; optionable): Machinery. Forecast to announce a split on 7-20-04 in conjunction with earnings. The company has not confirmed this date, but based upon our research this is the date for the release.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for 1 split in April 1997 near $90. The annual shareholder meeting was on 5-7-04 at which time no additional shares were authorized, but the company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/itw.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Broke out of a 14 week base in mid-April and rallied to 89.40. In the market selling it has come back to test that move, holding the 50 day EMA (83.14) and moving laterally the past week over that support. Volume has dried up as it makes the move. Solid 5 to 3 accumulation in the base (5 up price weeks on rising volume to 3 down price weeks on rising volume). Good test of the breakout and run, and relative strength is still very strong. Money flow is turning back up ahead of the price. Looks solid but want to see strong, above average volume return when it makes the move through the buy point.
Volume: 1.048M Avg Volume: 1.192M
BUY POINT: $86.38 Volume=1.8M Target=$99 Stop=$82.92
POSITION: ITW IQ - Sept. $85c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/itw.html
Continuing Pre-Announcement Plays:
Play Date: 01/24/2004
APOL (Apollo Group--$89.60; +0.68; optionable): Education and training. Forecast to announce a split 6-12-04 before the open
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3 for 2 split on 4-5-02 at a stock price of $34.50. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/apol.html
STATUS: 50 day EMA test. Holding the 50 day EMA (88.29) still on low volume. Continues to tantalize, and that is holding this important level as money flow rises higher and higher. Just waiting for the next move.
Volume: 1.314M Avg Volume: 1.719M
BUY POINT: $91.72 Volume=3M Target=$105 Stop=$87.95
POSITION: OAQ HR - Aug. $90c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/apol.html
Play Date: 05/15/2004
ESRX (Express Scripts--$76.86; +0.18; optionable): Mail order prescriptions. Forecast to announce a split 5-26-04 in conjunction with its shareholder meeting.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a split 5-23-01 after the close at a price of $93. It has two prior splits at $80.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/esrx.html
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. Solid gap over the 50 day EMA (75.30) last week is holding as ESRX moves laterally in a narrow range on lower volume. It is just resting, setting up the next move. A good recovery to re-take the breakout move it made in early April as it broke from a long 8.5 month cup with handle base. Just waiting for volume to surge on the move.
Volume: 509.992K Avg Volume: 1.053M
BUY POINT: $77.45 Volume=1.9M Target=$87 Stop=$75.38
POSITION: XTQ HO - Aug. $75c (63 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/esrx.html
Play Date: 05/18/2004
PDCO (Patterson Dental--$74.87; +0.48; optionable): Medical equipment. Forecast to announce a split on 5-20-04 before the open in conjunction with earnings.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for 1 split on 6-13-00 in conjunction with a board meeting. The stock price was $53. The annual shareholder meeting was on 9-8-803 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pdco.html
STATUS: 50 day EMA test. PDCO blasted out of an 18 week base in early April and surged over 78. As the market started to sell PDCO tested the break the past four weeks, coming back to the 50 day EMA (73.22) on mostly lower, below average volume. Volume shot higher Tuesday, moving well above average as it tried to move over the 18 day EMA (74.99). That volume caught our attention, and we are looking for it to continue as it moves up through the buy point.
Volume: 693.2K Avg Volume: 550K
BUY POINT: $76.12 Volume=759K Target=$85 Stop=$72.88
POSITION: DOU JO - Oct. $75c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/pdco.html
PRE-SPLITS
Play Date: 05/13/2004
ELAB (Eon Labs--$67.71; +0.88; optionable): Drugs. Splits 2:1 on 6-2-04
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/elab.html
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. Gained a bit more strength Tuesday as ELAB closed near the high, just managing to break the 18 day EMA (67.56). Volume was up but still below average. Looks ready to start the pre-split run.
Volume: 273.521K Avg Volume: 326.045K
BUY POINT: New: $68.05 (orig. $67.12) Volume=475K Target=$73 Stop=$65.42
POSITION: ESQ GM - July $65c (61 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/elab.html
Play Date: 05/11/2004
MOGN (MGI Pharmaceuticals--$62.34; +1.63; optionable): Drugs. Splits 2:1 on 6-10-04
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mogn.html
STATUS: 50 day EMA test. Looked ready to move last week but ran into the selling Monday. Held the 50 day EMA (60.38) and rebounded Tuesday on rising though still below average volume. Closed back off the high and below the 18 day EMA (62.56), but looks ready to makes its run now as money flow turns back up ahead of price as it moves laterally.
Volume: 662.613K Avg Volume: 730.681K
BUY POINT: $63.92 Volume=900K Target=$70 Stop=$59.88
POSITION: QOG GL - July $60c (58 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/mogn.html
Play Date: 05/11/2004
PG (Procter & Gamble--$106.06; -0.22; optionable): Cleaning products. Splits 2:1 on 6-21-04
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pg.html
STATUS: 50 day EMA test. Came off the 50 day EMA (105.05) Monday on above average volume, but could not hold the move. Held the 18 day EMA (106) Tuesday on lower trade, showing a doji at that level. Still looks ready to make its move.
Volume: 3.262M Avg Volume: 3.136M
BUY POINT: $107.25 Volume=4M Target=$112.25 Stop=$105.72
POSITION: PG GA - July $105c (67 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/pg.html
POST-SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 05/15/2004
SHFL (Shuffle Master--$32.22; +0.85; optionable): Gaming devices
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/shfl.html
STATUS: 50 day EMA test. Fell Monday back to test the 50 day EMA (31.09) on the low but volume was nothing. It bounced Tuesday on rising trade though still well below average. Trying to clear the 18 day EMA (32.24) but will need more trade. Money flow is ahead of price and is moving higher ahead of it right now. Looking for the stock to follow.
Volume: 363.991K Avg Volume: 697.136K
BUY POINT: $32.72 Volume=800K Target=$27.62 Stop=$31.12
POSITION: SVF HF - Aug. $30c (69 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/shfl.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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