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us stock market, stock recommendation
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Best Plays:
1) AET: Rolling over at the 18 day EMA.
2) CYTC: Failing at the 18 day EMA.
3) ACXM: Nice bounce off the 50 day EMA.
4) CEY: Making the breakout on solid volume.
5) EFII: Still looks excellent.
6) PTEK: Volume is rising as it moves off the 50 day EMA.
7) LOW: Rolling back over.
8) WWCA: Held most of the breakout move.
NEW PLAYS:
Downside:
Play Date: 05/19/2004
AET (Aetna--$79.00; -1.78; optionable): Health care plans
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/aet.html
STATUS: Put. Peaked in early April and crashed through the 50 day EMA (83.23) to end that month. It sold then rallied back up but on low volume. Wednesday it gapped higher toward the 18 day EMA (81.92) but stalled and rolled over on rising though still below average volume. Looking for a continued move lower toward the gap up point from February at 75.
Volume: 1.326M Avg Volume: 1.595M
BUY POINT: $78.78 Volume=1.7M Target=$74.68 Stop=$82.02
POSITION: AET SP - July $80p (-52 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/aet.html
Play Date: 05/19/2004
CYTC (Cytyc--$19.33; -0.03; optionable): Medical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cytc.html
STATUS: Put. Made one peak in March, a higher one in April, then collapsed through the 50 day EMA (20.03) on a strong gap lower. It has rebounded the past two weeks but volume has really lagged the past week as it moved to test the breakdown. Wednesday it tapped at the 18 day EMA (19.88) on the high and then fell back. Looking for it to follow the money flow lower.
Volume: 1.408M Avg Volume: 1.875M
BUY POINT: $19.22 Volume=1.9M Target=$17.45 Stop=$19.94
POSITION: YQK TD - Aug. $20p (-52 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/cytc.html
Upside:
Play Date: 05/19/2004
ACXM (Acxicom--$23.33; +0.54; optionable): Information technology
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/acxm.html
STATUS: 50 day EMA test. Made us some good money but then peaked in April near 25 and started a 6 week pullback to test the move, holding at the 50 day EMA (22.29) on the test. After walking along that support for a week, it jumped Wednesday on very strong, above average volume. Money flow has turned back up ahead of the stock and relative strength is already making the breakout, a very bullish move.
Volume: 1.334M Avg Volume: 828.863K
BUY POINT: $23.49 Volume=1.1M Target=$27 Stop=$22.08
POSITION: UQA HX - Aug. $22.50c (66 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/acxm.html
Play Date: 05/19/2004
CSAR (Caraustar--$13.36; +0.12; no options): Paper and paper products
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/csar.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Nice 17 week base that shows excellent price/volume action: drying up as it hit the bottom of the pattern at the 200 day SMA (11.34) then rallying as it moved up to form the right side of the base. It then moved laterally along the 50 day EMA (12.57), forming the handle where the last sellers are shaken out. Excellent 7 to 2 accumulation in the base (7 up price weeks on rising volume to 2 down price weeks on rising volume). That shows us money moved in during the base. Money flow is excellent, surging higher ahead of price. Wednesday CSAR tried to make the move on some huge volume. Just being patient to see if it can reset and make the breakout move stick.
Volume: 728.19K Avg Volume: 117K
BUY POINT: $14.06 Volume=176K Target=$16.85 Stop=$13.08
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/csar.html
CONTINUING PLAYS:
Play Date: 05/12/2004
CAND (Candies, Inc.--$2.59; +0.01; no options): Apparel: shoes
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cand.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Creeping higher up the 18 day EMA (2.47) as volume started higher Wednesday; still below average but higher. Still solid in the 12 week base sporting excellent 5 to 1 accumulation (5 up price weeks on rising volume to 1 down price week on rising volume). Seems to be ignoring the market and going about its own business. Outstanding money flow continues to surge ahead of price, and relative strength is edging toward a breakout.
Volume: 101.683K Avg Volume: 143.863K
BUY POINT: $2.68 Volume=221K Target=$3.35 Stop=$2.49
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/cand.html
Play Date: 05/15/2004
CEY (Certegy--$36.77; +0.25; optionable): Credit and debit card processing
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cey.html
STATUS: Ascending triangle. Volume surged Wednesday as CEY moved to the breakout, but it could not hold onto a lot of the gain. Still very solid in its 6 week triangle that formed after it broke from a 4 month cup base to start April. Again, a good combination base as it works to weed out the overhead supply and can provide explosive breakouts. Accumulation is a solid 6 to 3, money flow is moving up ahead of price and relative strength is already making the breakout. A relative strength breakout ahead of the price is a solid indication for the stock. .
Volume: 393.6K Avg Volume: 175.409K
BUY POINT: New: 36.88 (orig. $36.78) Volume=263K Target=$42.32 Stop=$35.24
POSITION: CEY JG - Oct. 35c (71 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/cey.html
Play Date: 05/17/2004
DRIV (Digital River--$30.88; +1.13; optionable): Business software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/driv.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Driving higher Wednesday on strong volume, hitting 33.94 on the high. Got caught in the market selling, giving back $3 of the gain. Still a very nice 7 month base. Looking for it to reload and break higher again, following that strong money flow.
Volume: 3M Avg Volume: 717.818K
BUY POINT: $29.62 Volume=1.1M Target=$34 Stop=$27.55
POSITION: DQI IF - Sept. $30c (47 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/driv.html
Play Date: 05/06/2004
EFII (Electronics for Imaging--$27.06; +0.27; optionable): Application software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/efii.html
STATUS: Cup. Volume was up Wednesday as EFII moved higher but still could not breakout, easing back to close basically flat. Still moving in the nice, tight handle to its 15 week cup base. Accumulation is outstanding at 8 to 2 (8 up price weeks on rising volume to 2 down price weeks on rising volume). Money flow is surging higher ahead of price. Despite the market reversal it looks very strong.
Volume: 749.641K Avg Volume: 497.772K
BUY POINT: $27.48 Volume=725K Target=$32 Stop=$25.78
POSITION: EFQ JE - Oct. $25c (76 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/efii.html
Play Date: 05/12/2004
EXBD (Corporate Executive Board--$52.76; -0.06; optionable): Executive education
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/exbd.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Still working laterally in the 2 week test of the breakout from the 12 week reverse head and shoulders base. Volume did not jump higher Wednesday as the stock tested 53.68 on the high but faded to close. Strong 5 to 2 accumulation and surging money flow in the prior base. Need to see more volume on the move through the buy point.
Volume: 117.834K Avg Volume: 244.136K
BUY POINT: $54.02 Volume=361K Target=$62 Stop=$51.52
POSITION: EBU IK - Sept. $55c (41 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/exbd.html
Play Date: 05/17/2004
JAKK (Jakks Pacific--$16.82; -0.07; optionable): Toys and games
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/jakk.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Still in the nice test, holding at the 18 day EMA (16.84) as volume backed off Wednesday. JAKK exploded out of a 12 week ascending triangle in mid-May. Solid 4 to 2 accumulation (4 up price weeks on rising volume to 2 down price weeks on rising volume) in the base shows the money moving into the stock. Money flow continues to move ahead of price as it makes the current 3 week pullback on low volume. Need to see some volume on the move.
Volume: 228.864K Avg Volume: 265K
BUY POINT: $17.22 Volume=398K Target=$20.65 Stop=$16.01
POSITION: UFF IW - Sept. $17.50c (46 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/jakk.html
Play Date: 05/03/2004
PTEK (PTEK Holdings--$10.38; +0.43; optionable): Telecommunications
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/ptek.html
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. Jumped off the 50 day (9.98) Wednesday on rising though still below average volume. A very good test of the breakout from its 13 week reverse head and shoulders base in late April. Money flow continues to move higher ahead of price and relative strength is ready to breakout again. Needs more volume, but a good start Wednesday.
Volume: 588.778K Avg Volume: 783.681K
BUY POINT: $10.88 Volume=1.1M Target=$13.05 Stop=$10.22
POSITION: QTE HB - Aug. $10c (66 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ptek.html
Play Date: 05/10/2004
WWCA (Western Wireless--$26.03; +1.22; optionable): Telecom wireless
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wwca.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Nice volume surge as WWCA moved through the buy point, breaking from its 12 week base. It backed off the high (26.85) to close, but still a solid move. Positive 4 to 3 accumulation in the base with money flow surging ahead of price. Relative strength broke out on the move, a very good corroboration of the break higher. Still a buy at this point.
Volume: 3.632M Avg Volume: 1.662M
BUY POINT: New: $26.28 (orig. $25.22) Volume=2.7M Target=$29 Stop=$23.45
POSITION: WRQ HE - Aug. $25c (44 delta) or WRQ HX - Aug. $22.50c (68 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/wwca.html
Downside:
Play Date: 05/10/2004
BRL (Barr Labs--$44.66; +0.13; optionable): Generic drugs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/brl.html
STATUS: Put. Rallied over the 18 day EMA (44.42), but is stalling as volume ran out on it. Wednesday volume was higher as BRL stalled and fell back to the 18 day on stronger, average volume. Money flow is falling, and we are looking for BRL to fall through the short term MA for the entry point.
Volume: 1.108M Avg Volume: 1.044M
BUY POINT: New: $44.12 Volume=1.6M Target=$41.22 Stop=$46.35
POSITION: BRL TI - Aug. $45p (-49 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/brl.html
Play Date: 05/17/2004
LOW (Lowes--$50.60; -0.50; optionable): Home improvement stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/low.html
STATUS: Put. Gapped higher toward resistance at 52 and ran out of gas. It rolled over on continued strong, above average volume, landing on the 10 day EMA (50.64) on the close. After trying to base out November to February it failed and broke the 200 day SMA (54.52). It has made the second test the best that it could, and now it looks ready to fail. Volume: 5.626M Avg Volume: 3.696M
BUY POINT: New: $50.32 (orig. $49.49) Volume=5M Target=$47 Stop=$50.92
POSITION: LOW SJ - July $50p (-52 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/low.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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us stock market
stock recommendation
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