|
|
us stock market, trading system
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers Thursday: BCR; FLIR; NXTP; DHR; ETN
In each report we prepare full write-ups for those plays that look ready to move. Those that have made the move or are still setting up are discussed in the continuing play table. The purpose is to focus on those stocks that are set to move.
NEW PLAYS: This section includes plays from all sections other than pre-announcements. Those are contained in the pre-announcement section.
New Pre-Split Plays:
Play Date: 05/20/2004
IEX (Idex--$44.73; +0.43; optionable): Machinery. Splits 3:2 on 6-1-04
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/iex.html
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. IEX has come all the way back with a full test of the April breakout, holding at the simple 50 day MA (44.17) on low, below average volume. As it has made the test money flow has remained strong, still moving higher. Looking for it to hold here and bounce through the 10 and 18 day EMA (45.13, 45.36) on a strong shot of volume.
Volume: 61.7K Avg Volume: 137.772K
BUY POINT: $45.68 Volume=200K Target=$48 Stop=$43.96
POSITION: IEX JI - Oct. $45c (52 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/iex.html
New Leader Plays: May turn into a split, but a solid stock ready to move.
Play Date: 05/20/2004
PLT (Plantronics--$37.96; +0.21; optionable): Telecom products (headsets)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/plt.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Nice 17 week base has formed after a straight shot run higher in 2003. Excellent 5 to 2 accumulation in the base (5 up price weeks on rising volume to 2 down price weeks on rising volume) shows money continued to move into the stock even as it consolidated the 2003 move. Currently in a very nice, tight 3 week handle forming over the 50 day EMA (36.99). Money flow is surging ahead of price and we are looking for the stock to follow it higher.
Volume: 271.2K Avg Volume: 462.909K
BUY POINT: $39.05 Volume=694K Target=$45 Stop=$36.88
POSITION: PLT HH - Aug. $40c (38 delta) or PLT HG - Aug. $35c (79 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/plt.html
Play Date: 05/20/2004
ZILA (Zila--$4.99; +0.17; no options): Drug products
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/z/zila.html
STATUS: Flat/trading range. ZILA rallied well in 2003, needed a breather, and is taking it now with the current 15 week trading range between 4 and 5.25. Accumulation in the range is an outstanding 7 to 2; money has been moving into the stock even as it works through its consolidation. It made a higher low at 4.50 this past week. When you are looking at a stock in a trading range, one of the things it does before it makes the breakout is make that higher low. Money flow is surging higher ahead of price and relative strength is ready for the breakout. Looks very strong here.
Volume: 131.74K Avg Volume: 189.954K
BUY POINT: $5.08 Volume=285K Target=$6.12 Stop=$4.72
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/zila.html
New Downside Plays:
Play Date: 05/20/2004
IP (International Paper--$40.27; +0.02; optionable): Paper
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/ip.html
STATUS: Put. Double topped to start the year in January and February and tanked to the 200 day SMA (40.89). It tried the bounce move, managing to regain half the loss but then rolling back down and breaking the 200 day in late April. It plunged lower after the breach as the big money unloaded a stock they did not want to support anymore. It has made a low volume rebound to test that level, and has been struggling for the last week. Looks ready to roll back over.
Volume: 2.094M Avg Volume: 2.866M
BUY POINT: $39.95 Volume=2.8M Target=$37.92 Stop=$40.94
POSITION: IP SH - July $40p (-40 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ip.html
Continuing Leader Plays:
Play Date: 04/17/2004
BIIB (Biogen Idec--$60.65; +1.43; optionable): Biotechnology
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/biib.html
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. Surging higher on strong, above average volume, breaking through some resistance at 60. This is moving it out of an 11 week triangle. Still a buy on this move.
Volume: 5.457M Avg Volume: 4.994M
BUY POINT: New: $60.95 (orig. $60.49) Volume=7.5M Target=$72.88 Stop=$58.04
POSITION: IHD GL - July $60c (51 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/biib.html
Play Date: 05/18/2004
INGR (Intergraph--$25; -0.15; optionable): System and technical software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/ingr.html
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. Still working laterally over the 18 day EMA (24.87) as volume kicked up again for the second session in three. That rising volume is getting us ready for INGR to try a breakout from its 27 week base sporting solid 8 to 3 accumulation.
Volume: 513.518K Avg Volume: 385.272K
BUY POINT: $26.02 Volume=600K Target=$31 Stop=$24.68
POSITION: IGQ JE - Oct. $25c (59 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/ingr.html
Play Date: 05/13/2004
WITS (Witness Systems--$13.35; +0.27; no options): Application software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wits.html
STATUS: Ascending triangle. Volume jumped Thursday as WITS started moving off the 50 day EMA (12.93). It stalled at the 18 day EMA (13.38) but looks ready to start the breakout move from its 11 week triangle that has made higher and higher lows up the 50 day. Excellent money flow and solid accumulation. Just looking for a strong break from the pattern on above average volume.
Volume: 277.124K Avg Volume: 373.818K
BUY POINT: $14.32 Volume=510K Target=$17.25 Stop=$13.48
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/wits.html
Continuing Downside Plays:
Play Date: 05/10/2004
BRL (Barr Labs--$44; -0.66; optionable): Generic drugs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/brl.html
STATUS: Put. Rolling below the short term MA (10 and 18 day EMA) on continued stronger, average volume. It has made the test of the 50 day EMA (45.99) breakdown and looks ready to head back down to test 40ish, following that tanking money flow.
Volume: 1.108M Avg Volume: 1.044M
BUY POINT: New: $43.88 Volume=1.6M Target=$41.22 Stop=$46.35
POSITION: BRL TI - Aug. $45p (-49 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/brl.html
Play Date: 05/19/2004
CYTC (Cytyc--$19.44; +0.11; optionable): Medical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cytc.html
STATUS: Put. A tight hanging man doji Thursday on rising volume, following the Wednesday tombstone doji. Looks ready to resume the move lower after the 50 day EMA (20.01) breakdown and low volume test.
Volume: 1.654M Avg Volume: 1.875M
BUY POINT: $19.22 Volume=1.9M Target=$17.45 Stop=$19.94
POSITION: YQK TD - Aug. $20p (-52 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cytc.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
Current Pre-Announcement Plays: In each report we look at the candidates that are in the best patterns ahead of their potential announcements. This focus on leaders in good patterns allows us to make good money even if companies do not announce the split, something that they are still gun-shy of even after the market has made a good recovery as well as the economy. The key with splits now is in the pattern; yes there is a positive move on the announcement, but stocks in this market need to have a good pattern of accumulation to really benefit from a split announcement.
APOL: Forecast 6-12-04 before the open.
CHS: Forecast 5-27-04 after the close. Continues to struggle, fading back toward the 200 day SMA.
CRL: No announcement 4-28-04. Trying to hold the 50 day EMA.
CWTR: Forecast 5-26-04. Nice gap higher this week on strong volume.
DGX: Researching next date and waiting for the breakout.
ESRX: Forecast 5-26-04 with its shareholder meeting.
FLIR: Still researching date. Starting higher on strong volume.
GD: Forecast 6-3-04
HUG: Forecast 5-25-04 after the close.
IDXX: Researching next date.
ITW: Forecast 7-20-04
LXK: Researching the next split date.
MATK: Tanked.
PDCO: Forecast 5-20-2004 before the open. Never gave us the entry point and it gapped below the 50 day EMA Thursday.
POOL: Nice 50 day EMA test still in progress.
QCOM: No split announcement on 5-3. Still hugging the 50 day EMA.
RS: Forecast 5-19-04. No split announcement but good volume move back over the 50 day EMA.
UOPX: Forecast 6-24-04 before the open.
URBN: Forecast 6-1-04 at its shareholder meeting.
WFMI: No split announced 5-5-04. Good volume Wednesday as it jumped off the 50 day.
XRAY: Researching the next date. Turned back down & trying to hold support at 48.
ZBRA: Looking for a new date. Moving very well on better volume.
ZMH: No split announced 4-26-04. Nice test of the move off the 50 day EMA.
Full Write-ups: We do not cover all candidates in full in each report, but focus on those ready to make a move or are right at their forecast announcement date. This way we are focused on those stocks ready to make moves.
Continuing Pre-Announcement Plays:
Play Date: 05/15/2004
ESRX (Express Scripts--$76.27; -0.09; optionable): Mail order prescriptions. Forecast to announce a split 5-26-04 in conjunction with its shareholder meeting.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a split 5-23-01 after the close at a price of $93. It has two prior splits at $80.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/esrx.html
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. Still working laterally over the 18 day EMA (76.24) on below average volume. This follows the solid gap over the 50 day EMA (75.38) last week. Again, looks like it is setting up for the next move after a brief rest. Again a good recovery to re-take the breakout move it made in early April as it broke from a long 8.5 month cup with handle base. Just waiting for volume to surge on the move.
Volume: 703.679K Avg Volume: 1.053M
BUY POINT: $77.45 Volume=1.9M Target=$87 Stop=$75.38
POSITION: XTQ HO - Aug. $75c (63 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/esrx.html
Play Date: 05/18/2004
ITW (Illinois Took Works--$86.4; +0.74; optionable): Machinery. Forecast to announce a split on 7-20-04 in conjunction with earnings. The company has not confirmed this date, but based upon our research this is the date for the release.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for 1 split in April 1997 near $90. The annual shareholder meeting was on 5-7-04 at which time no additional shares were authorized, but the company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/itw.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Volume surged as ITW started to move back up after the test of the breakout from its 14 week base in mid-April. Solid 5 to 3 accumulation in the base (5 up price weeks on rising volume to 3 down price weeks on rising volume). Money flow is strong and relative strength is making the breakout. If it continues the move it is ready.
Volume: 1.472M Avg Volume: 1.192M
BUY POINT: New: $86.72 (orig. $86.38) Volume=1.8M Target=$99 Stop=$82.92
POSITION: ITW IQ - Sept. $85c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/itw.html
PRE-SPLITS
Play Date: 04/29/2004
ERES (Eresearch Tech--$32.80; -0.09; optionable): Medical labs. Splits 3:2 on 5-28.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/eres.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. ERES is approaching that point near its split where a strong stock starts to get jumpy. Volume jumped Wednesday as it showed a doji, and it showed another one Thursday. It is showing signs it is ready to make its move. We just need to e ready when it does.
Volume: 475.405K Avg Volume: 894.545K
BUY POINT: New: $33.15 (orig. $32.95) Volume=1.3M Target=$37.92 Stop=$31.18
POSITION: UDB IZ - Sept. $32.50c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/eres.html
Play Date: 05/11/2004
MOGN (MGI Pharmaceuticals--$61.18; -0.32; optionable): Drugs. Splits 2:1 on 6-10-04
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mogn.html
STATUS: 50 day EMA test. Volume surged Thursday as MOGN shows a hammer doji over the 50 day EMA (60.45). Looks ready to start another pre-split run after this nice pullback to key support to test the nice run after the earlier breakout.
Volume: 1.293M Avg Volume: 730.681K
BUY POINT: $63.92 Volume=900K Target=$70 Stop=$59.88
POSITION: QOG GL - July $60c (58 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/mogn.html
Play Date: 05/11/2004
PG (Procter & Gamble--$106.69; +1.21; optionable): Cleaning products. Splits 2:1 on 6-21-04
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pg.html
STATUS: 50 day EMA test. PG surged off of the 50 day EMA (105.13) Thursday on rising though still below average volume. It has been moving laterally over this key level for over a week, toying with us. This looks like the start of the next move. Maybe there is something to the large cap argument.
Volume: 2.72M Avg Volume: 3.136M
BUY POINT: $107.25 Volume=4M Target=$112.25 Stop=$105.72
POSITION: PG GA - July $105c (67 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/pg.html
POST-SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 05/19/2004
IMDC (Inamed--$58.39; +0.85; optionable): Medical appliances
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/imdc.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Moved up off the 18 day EMA (57.86) Thursday, but had no volume. Nice hold of the breakout from its 6.5 month cup with handle base sporting excellent 7 to 2 accumulation (7 up price weeks on rising volume to 2 down price weeks on rising volume), however. Looking for volume to jump on the next move higher. Volume just was not there Thursday.
Volume: 228.565K Avg Volume: 496.136K
BUY POINT: New: $58.56 (orig. $58.38) Volume=600K Target=$65.88 Stop=$57.12
POSITION: UZI JL - Oct. $60c (45 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/imdc.html
Play Date: 05/15/2004
SHFL (Shuffle Master--$32.56; +1; optionable): Gaming devices
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/shfl.html
STATUS: 50 day EMA test. Nice jump in volume as SHFL reversed the Wednesday selling. Great money flow moving higher ahead of price. Looks ready to go now.
Volume: 592.451K Avg Volume: 697.136K
BUY POINT: $32.72 Volume=800K Target=$27.62 Stop=$31.12
POSITION: SVF HF - Aug. $30c (69 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/shfl.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
|
us stock market
trading system
|
