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Begin part 2 of 3
New plays contained in part 3.
Support and Resistance
NASDAQ: Closed at 1984.50
Resistance: 1990 to 2000, the top of the late 2003 base. 2050 represents some prior price points and has stopped NASDAQ the last time it tried that level. Breakout from the pattern is 2080. 2089 is the February closing high. 2112 is the early January high.
Support: The simple 50 day MA (1972) and 50 day EMA (1965). The 200 day SMA (1955). 1900 to 1890. The April lows (1880, 1878). 1850 below that. Some price tops at 1777, 1750.
S&P 500: Closed at 1121.28
Resistance: 1125 stalled the last bounce attempt. The April and January highs (1150 to 1155). Next is 1159 (February highs) and 1160 to 1175 the highs in that double top that spanned late 2001, early 2002.
Support: The exponential 50 day MA (1113) is not totally broken, and the simple 50 day MA (1117). The 18 day EMA (1105). 1106 is a May 2002 top and represents some early 2001 lows. 1096 to 1100. The 200 day SMA (1084). April lows (1079, 1076). 1075 to 1070 from the December consolidation. 1058 - 1060 from November tops.
Dow: Closed at 10,205.20
Resistance: The 50 day EMA (10,216). The simple 50 day MA (10,249) and price resistance at 10,250. 10,570 is the April high. Price consolidation at 10,600 level. 10,747 is the February high.
Support: The 18 day EMA (10,094). The 200 day SMA (10,059). March low (10,007). 9900-9850.
Economic Calendar
These are consensus expectations. Our expectations will vary and are discussed in the 'Economy' section.
5-25-04
Consumer confidence, May (10:00): 93.2 actual, 94.0 expected, 93.0 April (revised from 92.9).
Existing home sales, April (10:00): 6.64M actual, 6.45M expected, 6.48M March.
5-26-04
Durable goods orders, April (8:30): -2.9% actual, -0.8% expected, 5.7% March (revised from 3.4%).
New homes sales, April, (10:00): 1.09M actual, 1.2M expected, 1.239M March (revised from 1.228M).
5-27-04
GDP, Q1 second revision (8:30): 4.4% actual, 4.5% expected, 4.2% prior.
GDP chain deflator (8:30): 2.6% actual, 2.5% expected, 2.5% prior.
Initial jobless claims (8:30): 344K actual, 335K expected, 347K prior (revised from 345K).
5-28-04
Personal income, April (8:30): 0.5% expected, 0.4% March.
Personal spending, April (8:30): 0.2% expected, 0.4% March.
Michigan revised sentiment, May (9:45): 94.2 expected, 94.2 prior.
Chicago PMI, May (10:00): 62.0 expected, 63.9 April.
CONTINUING PLAY LIST
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LEGEND FOR CONTINUING PLAY TABLE
DATE: date play first appeared on report.
PLAY: Denotes the type of pattern or play.
Upside play types: Asc Tri =Ascending triangle; BO=Breakout; Cup=Cup base; Cup hdl=Cup w/handle; DB hdl=Double bottom w/handle; Dbl btm=Double bottom; Flat=Flat base; FlyPlat=Flying Plateau; Pennant=Pennant; Rv H&S=Reverse head & shoulders; Saucer=Saucer base; Test 18=Testing 18 day MVA; Test 50=Testing 50 day MVA; Test BO=Testing the breakout (could be 10 day MVA test, etc.)
Downside play types: CCall=Covered Call; Dsc Tri=Descending triangle; Dbl Top=Double top; H&S=Head & shoulders; Put (generic downside);
PIVOT=Buy point
Tgt=Target stock price for the play. Applies to stock and options.
Vol=Volume for the most recent session.
TgtV=Target volume to enter the play.
Stop=Stop advisory point. This is advisory and we may or may not exit a play if it hits this level depending upon market conditions.
PLAY STATUS: Buy not hit (stock has not hit buy point); Buy not issued (stock has hit buy point but did not enter due to weak volume, poor intraday action, poor market action); Current (ongoing play already entered); Entered today (entered the play that session); Exited (closed the position); Target hit (play hit initial target; will note if took all or partial gain or let run further); Trailing stop (exited using a trailing stop loss).
Upside Plays
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
ABM 05/17 Flat 19.07 -0.01 18.99 21.85 145K 185K 18.39
Current. Pull back tapping 18.91 at the low and rallied on slightly higher, but still only average volume. Beginning to make a lateral move above the 10 day MVA.
ACLS 05/25 Cup 12.18 -0.13 12.28 14.12 1.7M 1.9M 11.37
Current. Tapped 12.69 at the high, but gave it back showing a tight doji on lower, but still above average volume.
ACXM 05/19 Test 50 24.18 +0.47 23.49 27 633K 1.1M 22.08
Buy Not Issued. Continue to move up the 10 day MVA on rising, but still below average volume. Have not entered because volume is not there.
AMT 04/27 Test BO 13.87 +0.09 13.81 16.55 1.6M 4M 13.04
Entered today. Hit the buy point showing a doji on rising, but still below average volume.
ARTI 05/10 DB hdl 25.07 +0.2 25.35 29.15 198K 592K 23.58
Buy Not Issued. Tapped 24.37 at the low and rallied up the 10 day MVA on low volume. Needs to break through resistance at 25.25.
ASKJ 05/12 Test 50 39.18 -1.16 38.55 43.98 5.1M 5.4M 36.22
Current. Pull back tapping 38.68 at the low and rallied on stronger above average volume. Still in good shape.
ATRM 05/08 Test BO 8.89 +0.43 8.82 10.55 579K 177K 7.94
Current. Tested the 10 day MVA and rallied for a great move up the 10 day MVA on stronger above average volume. Needs to break through resistance here.
BCR 12/17 Rv H&S 112.07 +1.25 80.93 92.95 579K 500K 107.08
Current. Continue to move up the 10 day MVA on stronger above average volume. Made a 52 week high.
BEV 05/17 DB hdl 8.25 +0.14 8.52 10.25 696K 2.5M 7.92
Buy Not Hit. Continue to move up the 10 day MVA for a nice gain, but on low volume. Needs to break through resistance here.
BIIB 04/17 Cup 63.08 -0.01 60.49 72.88 5.2M 7.5M 58.62
Current. Tapped 61.69 at the low and rallied showing a doji on stronger above average volume. Making a lateral move above the 10 day MVA.
BLUD 05/18 Test BO 31.1 -0.01 27.49 32 236K 500K 26.68
Current. Tapped 30.10 at the intraday low and rallied showing a doji as stock begins to make a lateral move.
BR 05/15 Test 50 66.67 -1.63 67.42 74.22 1.7M 1.7M 66.05
Current. Pull back holding the 18 day MVA on stronger above average volume. May rest back to support at 66.
BRCM 05/22 Flat 42.63 +0.37 41.44 47.42 9.2M 13M 39.38
Current. Continue to move up the 10 day MVA on slightly above average volume. Needs to break through resistance here.
CEN 05/25 Cup hdl 22.22 -0.17 22.58 26 582K 1.1M 21.45
Buy Not Hit. Pull back showing a tight doji on rising, but only average volume. Doji may indicate a change in pattern.
CRL 04/24 FlyPlat 45 +0.35 46.83 53.85 234K 495K 44.15
Current. Bounced off the 10 day MVA on lower, below average volume. Still in good shape.
DJO 05/22 Cup hdl 23.45 -0.02 26.22 30.24 122K 466K 24.38
Buy Not Hit. Continue with lateral move showing a doji on the 50 day MVA on very low volume. The stock has not performed so will drop.
EEFT 05/10 Asc Tri 22.95 +0.52 20.67 24.75 233K 425K 21.08
Current. Tapped 22.27 at the low and rallied up the 10 day MVA on rising, but still below average volume. Made a 52 week high.
EFJI 05/26 Rv H&S 7.55 +0.1 7.58 9.11 591K 300K 6.98
Entered today. Rallied early to the buy point but fell back. Very
late in the session it again hit the buy point on solid
trade. We issued an alert but it was too late in the
session to easily act upon. Looking to enter in morning.
EGLS 05/18 Dbl btm 5.11 -0.06 5.09 6.18 163K 212K 4.68
Current. Gapped up at the open, but gave it all back tapping 5 at the low and rallied on slightly high, but average volume. Routine pull back after nice run
ELN 05/25 Test 50 23.08 +0.32 23.02 27 5.6M 10M 21.41
Current. Tested the 10 day MVA and rallied on rising, but below average volume. Needs to break through resistance here.
EW 05/19 Cup hdl 36.38 +0.65 35.77 41 448K 722K 34.28
Buy Not Issued. Continue to move up the 10 day MVA on low volume. Looking for a low volume pull back before we could enter the play.
FCEL 05/24 Test 50 15.95 +0.33 16.34 19.72 1.2M 1.4M 15.32
Entered today. Took off on some good volume but was unable to hold
all of the gain. Still looks like a good start to
the rebound move.
GNSC 04/28 Dbl btm 4.25 +0.01 4.02 4.98 162K 172K 3.81
Current. Gapped up at the open, but gave most of it back tapping 4.15 at the low and rallied on lower, but still above average volume. Beginning to make a lateral move.
HLEX 05/06 Cup hdl 15.58 0 14.64 17.55 182K 300K 14.12
Current. Tapped 15.27 at the low and rallied showing a doji on lower, below average volume. Still in the pattern.
IDSY 05/05 Test BO 10.8 -1.11 10.48 12.54 308K 123K 11.12
Trailing Stop. Tanked below the 18 day MVA on stronger above average volume.
IDXX 02/02 DB hdl 66.53 +0.81 50.22 74 682K 500K 60.38
IMCL 05/22 Test BO 74.69 -0.36 71.25 80 3.2M 4M 68.55
Buy Not Issued. Pull back on lower, but average volume. Needs to continue to have low volume pull back.
INGR 05/18 Rv H&S 25.15 -0.24 26.02 31 268K 600K 24.68
Buy Not Hit. Gapped up at the open, but gave it back holding the 10 day MVA on low volume. Still in the pattern.
JAKK 05/17 Test BO 17.88 +0.38 17.54 20.95 633K 398K 16.88
Current. Tested the 10 day MVA and rallied for a nice gain on stronger above average volume.
LPNT 05/12 Cup hdl 37.24 -0.45 37.38 43 941K 700K 36.04
Current. Tapped 38.88 at the high, but gave it all back testing the 10 day MVA and rallied on stronger above average volume. Needs to break through resistance at 37.69.
MACE 05/26 Test 50 5.54 -0.69 6.39 9 12M 4M 5.94
Buy Not Issued. Took back most of yesterday's nice move on slightly lower, but still above average volume. Needs to hold here or will look to drop.
MANT 05/22 Cup hdl 18.64 -8.41 26.33 30.48 6.5M 443K 25.32
Exited. Got thumped on an announcement its earnings would only
be half of expectations.
MCHP 05/05 Test 50 31.79 +0.62 31.21 34.75 3.4M 4M 29.18
Current. Moving up the 10 day MVA on stronger above average volume.
MIPS 04/21 DB hdl 6.93 -0.18 6.82 8.22 588K 339K 6.48
Current. More volatile session as stock pull backs on much lower, but above average volume. Still in uptrend.
MODI 05/25 Rv H&S 30.38 +0.26 30.01 34.65 160K 170K 28.32
Current. Continue to move up the 10 day MVA on lower, but still above average volume.
MSSN 04/27 Test BO 4.83 +0.08 4.89 5.92 319K 615K 4.32
Current. Continue to move up the 10 day MVA on rising, but still below average volume.
MXIM 05/25 Dbl btm 50.3 +0.3 50.25 56 6.8M 7M 47.12
Buy Not Issued. Again some good trade as it toyed with the buy point late. We considered entering but decided to wait &
see if it can make a more definitive break higher.
NXTP 05/12 Cup hdl 16.1 +0.12 15.36 18.22 5.2M 3M 14.38
Current. Tapped 15.71 at the intraday low and rallied showing a tight doji as stock moves up the 10 day MVA on much stronger above average volume. Doji may indicate a change in pattern.
NXTP 05/06 Cup 16.1 +0.12 15.22 18.12 5.2M 3M 14.38
Current.
OCLR 05/04 Cup 33.67 -0.42 30.22 34.65 310K 160K 32.32
Current. Pull back testing the 10 day MVA and rallied on lower, but still above average volume. Still in good shape.
PLT 05/20 DB hdl 39.66 +0.11 39.05 45 241K 694K 36.88
Buy Not Issued. Making a lateral move above the 10 day MVA on low volume. Have not entered the play, because volume is not there.
PLXT 05/24 Test BO 14.83 +0.2 14.85 17.78 430K 366K 13.81
Current. Tapped 14.13 at the low (10 day MVA) and rallied as stock moves up the 10 day MVA on much lower, but still above average volume. Broke through resistance at 14.63.
PSYS 05/08 Cup hdl 24.47 -0.61 24.54 28.75 167K 300K 23.02
Current. Pull back tapping 23.76 at the low and rallied on low volume. Still in good shape.
RHAT 05/18 Asc Tri 27.36 -0.34 27.32 31.25 4.2M 7M 25.36
Current. Routine pull back on low volume after break out.
RHB 05/24 Cup hdl 24.46 +0.46 24.33 27.98 77K 212K 22.72
Buy Not Hit. Continue with low volume ascent. Have not entered the play, because volume is not there.
RMD 04/13 Cup hdl 50.83 +0.47 47.84 54.55 155K 382K 47.62
Current. Tapped 50.25 at the low and rallied showing a doji on rising, but still below average volume. Continue with uptrend pattern. Broke through resistance at 50.72.
SBUX 03/22 Test 50 40.02 +0.35 39 47 4.3M 4.5M 38.12
Current. Gapped up at the open showing a doji on stronger above average volume. Made a 52 week high. Doji may indicate a change in pattern.
SNTS 05/24 Cup hdl 14.15 +0.15 13.25 15.98 90K 135K 12.32
Current. Continue to move up the 10 day MVA on low volume.
SSP 05/25 Test 50 105.01 +1 104.01 109.85 211K 245K 101.95
Current. Gapped up at the open and continued to rally on slightly lower, but still above average volume. Needs to break through resitance at 106
TWW 05/24 Cup hdl 0.94 -0.01 1.06 1.39 819K 468K 0.99
Buy Not Hit. Gapped down tapping 0.86 at the intraday low and rallied showing a tight doji on stronger above average volume. Doji may indicate a change in pattern.
ULGX 05/21 Test BO 14 +0.2 11.97 14.16 313K 228K 11.13
Current. Continue with uptrend on stronger above average volume.
VISG 05/26 Dbl btm 10.07 -0.27 10.54 13 1.8M 3M 9.78
Buy Not Issued. Pull back on lower, below average volume. Stillin good shape.
WBSN 05/26 Cup hdl 31.99 +0.73 32.12 38 339K 453K 29.94
Buy Not Hit. Continue to move up the 10 day MVA on rising, but only average volume.
WITS 05/13 Asc Tri 13.45 +0.18 14.32 17.25 195K 510K 13.48
Buy Not Hit. Tapped 13.12 and rallied holding just above the 10 day MVA on low volume. Still in the pattern.
WOOF 02/23 Cup hdl 43.61 +0.03 31.24 37 233K 296K 40.58
Current. Continue to move up the 10 day MVA showing a doji on much lower, below average volume.
WWCA 05/10 Test BO 27.32 -0.33 26.38 30 1.5M 2.7M 24.98
Current. Pull back tapping 26.97 at the low and rallied on rising, but below average volume. Still in uptrend.
ZILA 05/20 Flat 5.09 +0.02 5.08 6.12 106K 285K 4.88
Current. Tested the 18 day MVA and rallied on rising, but still below average volume. Making a lateral move.
Downside Plays
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
$SOX 05/05 Put 482.46 +4.27 443.12 424 0 0 451.22
Current. Rallied tapping the 200 day MVA, but gave some of it back.
AET 05/19 Put 79.34 +1.59 78.12 74.15 2M 1.7M 79.72
Current. Rallied on stronger above average volume. Holding below resistance at the 18 day MVA.
BJS 05/18 Put 41 -0.96 40.62 38.22 1.9M 2.5M 41.22
Current. Nice move down the 10 day MVA on rising, but still below average volume.
BLL 05/17 Put 67.12 +0.93 63.88 60.51 324K 400K 65.05
Buy Not Hit. Rallied on rising volume holding the simple 50 day MVA. The stock has not made the move we were looking for so will drop.
BRL 05/10 Put 43.34 +0.12 43.02 40 1.2M 1.6M 44.39
Current. Rallied showing a tight doji on slightly above average volume. Holding below resistance.
DHR 05/13 Put 46.65 +0.65 44.88 43.12 1.7M 950K 45.83
Exited. Rallied on rising volume holding above the 50 day MVA.
ESST 05/08 Put 11.59 +0.04 11.64 9.88 387K 825K 12.11
Buy Not Issued. Beginning to make a lateral move under the 18 day MVA on low volume. Needs low volume rally.
JCI 05/15 Put 54.06 -0.16 52.12 49.45 1M 1.3M 52.72
Current. More volatile session. Moving down the 10 day MVA showing a doji just above the 10 day MVA on stronger above average volume. Doji may indicate a change in pattern.
MCO 05/13 Put 65.44 -0.24 63.15 60.42 448K 804K 64.42
Current. Moved down holding the 50 day MVA on much lower, below average volume. Needs to break through support here.
POG 05/13 Put 26.21 -0.45 26.04 23.78 416K 800K 26.06
Current. Moving down the 10 day MVA on rising, but still below average volume.
SEM 05/23 Put 13.46 -0.04 13.11 11.05 842K 2M 14.02
Buy Not Hit. Tapped 13.74 at the intraday high, but gave it back showing a doji under the 18 day MVA on low volume.
End part 2 of 3
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