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Begin part 2 of 3
New plays and full write-ups contained in part 3.
Support and Resistance
NASDAQ: Closed at 1984.50
Resistance: 1990 to 2000, the top of the late 2003 base. 2050 represents some prior price points and has stopped NASDAQ the last time it tried that level. Breakout from the pattern is 2080. 2089 is the February closing high. 2112 is the early January high.
Support: The simple 50 day MA (1972) and 50 day EMA (1965). The 200 day SMA (1955). 1900 to 1890. The April lows (1880, 1878). 1850 below that. Some price tops at 1777, 1750.
S&P 500: Closed at 1121.28
Resistance: 1125 stalled the last bounce attempt. The April and January highs (1150 to 1155). Next is 1159 (February highs) and 1160 to 1175 the highs in that double top that spanned late 2001, early 2002.
Support: The exponential 50 day MA (1113) is not totally broken, and the simple 50 day MA (1117). The 18 day EMA (1105). 1106 is a May 2002 top and represents some early 2001 lows. 1096 to 1100. The 200 day SMA (1084). April lows (1079, 1076). 1075 to 1070 from the December consolidation. 1058 - 1060 from November tops.
Dow: Closed at 10,205.20
Resistance: The 50 day EMA (10,216). The simple 50 day MA (10,249) and price resistance at 10,250. 10,570 is the April high. Price consolidation at 10,600 level. 10,747 is the February high.
Support: The 18 day EMA (10,094). The 200 day SMA (10,059). March low (10,007). 9900-9850.
Economic Calendar
These are consensus expectations. Our expectations will vary and are discussed in the 'Economy' section.
5-25-04
Consumer confidence, May (10:00): 93.2 actual, 94.0 expected, 93.0 April (revised from 92.9).
Existing home sales, April (10:00): 6.64M actual, 6.45M expected, 6.48M March.
5-26-04
Durable goods orders, April (8:30): -2.9% actual, -0.8% expected, 5.7% March (revised from 3.4%).
New homes sales, April, (10:00): 1.09M actual, 1.2M expected, 1.239M March (revised from 1.228M).
5-27-04
GDP, Q1 second revision (8:30): 4.4% actual, 4.5% expected, 4.2% prior.
GDP chain deflator (8:30): 2.6% actual, 2.5% expected, 2.5% prior.
Initial jobless claims (8:30): 344K actual, 335K expected, 347K prior (revised from 345K).
5-28-04
Personal income, April (8:30): 0.5% expected, 0.4% March.
Personal spending, April (8:30): 0.2% expected, 0.4% March.
Michigan revised sentiment, May (9:45): 94.2 expected, 94.2 prior.
Chicago PMI, May (10:00): 62.0 expected, 63.9 April.
CONTINUING PLAYS
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LEGEND FOR CONTINUING PLAY TABLE
DATE: date play first appeared on report.
PLAY: Denotes the type of pattern or play.
Upside play types: Asc Tri =Ascending triangle; BO=Breakout; Cup=Cup base; Cup hdl=Cup w/handle; DB hdl=Double bottom w/handle; Dbl btm=Double bottom; Flat=Flat base; FlyPlat=Flying Plateau; Pennant=Pennant; Rv H&S=Reverse head & shoulders; Saucer=Saucer base; Test 18=Testing 18 day MVA; Test 50=Testing 50 day MVA; Test BO=Testing the breakout (could be 10 day MVA test, etc.)
Downside play types: CCall=Covered Call; Dsc Tri=Descending triangle; Dbl Top=Double top; H&S=Head & shoulders; Put (generic downside);
PIVOT=Buy point
Tgt=Target stock price for the play. Applies to stock and options.
Vol=Volume for the most recent session.
TgtV=Target volume to enter the play.
Stop=Stop advisory point. This is advisory and we may or may not exit a play if it hits this level depending upon market conditions.
PLAY STATUS: Buy not hit (stock has not hit buy point); Buy not issued (stock has hit buy point but did not enter due to weak volume, poor intraday action, poor market action); Current (ongoing play already entered); Entered today (entered the play that session); Exited (closed the position); Target hit (play hit initial target; will note if took all or partial gain or let run further); Trailing stop (exited using a trailing stop loss).
Upside Plays
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
ACLS 05/25 Cup 12.18 -0.13 12.28 14.12 1.7M 1.9M 11.37
Current. Tapped 12.69 at the high, but gave it back showing a tight doji on lower, but still above average volume.
AEOS 05/24 Cup 28.4 +0.02 28.32 32 806K 2.2M 26.34
Buy Not Issued. Making a lateral move on low volume. Looking for a definitive break out.
AMT 04/27 Test BO 13.87 +0.09 13.81 16.55 1.6M 4M 13.04
Entered today. Hit the buy point showing a doji on rising, but still below average volume.
ANN 05/25 PreSplt 28.35 +0.17 28.72 31.33 773K 1M 27.28
Buy Not Hit. Tapped 28.87 at the high, but gave some of it back showing a tight doji on rising, but still below average volume. Continue to move up the 10 day MVA
APOL 05/11 Test 50 93.7 +0.51 91.72 105 1.7M 3M 87.95
Buy Not Hit.
APOL 01/24 Test 18 93.7 +0.51 73.25 82 1.7M 3M 90.95
Current. Continue with uptrend on lower, below average volume.
APOL 12/01 DB hdl 93.7 +0.51 70.72 82 1.7M 2.9M 90.95
Current.
APOL 11/22 DB hdl 93.7 +0.51 66.54 82 1.7M 2.9M 90.95
Current.
ARIA 05/01 Test BO 10.54 -0.08 11.55 13.85 452K 1.4M 10.74
Buy Not Issued. Gapped up at the open, but gave it back holding the simple 50 day MVA on low volume. Needs to hold here or will look to drop.
ARTI 05/10 DB hdl 25.07 +0.2 25.35 29.15 198K 592K 23.58
Buy Not Issued. Tapped 24.37 at the low and rallied up the 10 day MVA on low volume. Needs to break through resistance at 25.25.
AVO 03/30 Flat 34.97 -0.25 24.98 29.42 666K 334K 32.88
Current. Pull back on lower, but slightly above average volume. Routine pull back.
BCR 04/29 Test BO 112.07 +1.25 107.26 120 579K 600K 107.08
Current. Continue to move up the 10 day MVA on stronger above average volume. Made a 52 week high.
BCR 04/16 Test BO 112.07 +1.25 98.93 115 579K 522K 107.08
Current.
BCR 12/17 Rv H&S 112.07 +1.25 80.93 92.95 579K 500K 107.08
Current.
BIIB 04/17 Cup 63.08 -0.01 60.49 72.88 5.2M 7.5M 58.62
Current. Tapped 61.69 at the low and rallied showing a doji on stronger above average volume. Making a lateral move above the 10 day MVA.
BLUD 05/08 Test BO 31.1 -0.01 27.49 32 236K 500K 26.68
Current. Tapped 30.10 at the intraday low and rallied showing a doji as stock begins to make a lateral move.
BR 05/15 Test 50 66.67 -1.63 67.42 74.22 1.7M 1.7M 66.05
Current. Continue to pull back holding the 18 day MVA on stronger above average volume. May test back to support at 66
BRCM 05/22 Flat 42.63 +0.37 41.44 47.42 9.2M 13M 39.38
Current. Continue to move up the 10 day MVA on slightly above average volume. Needs to break through resistance here.
CRL 04/24 FlyPlat 45 +0.35 46.83 53.85 234K 495K 44.15
Current. Bounced off the 10 day MVA on lower, below average volume. Still in good shape.
DGX 03/20 Cup hdl 85.68 +0.93 86.32 100 814K 973K 81.92
Current. Continue to move up the 10 day MVA on above average volume. Needs to break through resistance at 86.42.
DNA 05/26 Flat 59.85 -1 61.42 66.88 4.2M 4.5M 58.88
Buy Not Issued. Pull back holding the 18 day MVA on rising, but still below average volume. Still in the pattern.
EBAY 03/06 Flat 88.05 +1.6 71.78 82.25 10M 10M 78.02
Current. Continue with uptrend on stronger above average volume.
EBAY 08/02 PreSplt 88.05 +1.6 53.78 60 10M 9M 78.02
Current.
EBAY 03/08 BO 88.05 +1.6 40.04 46 10M 8M 78.02
Current.
ELAB 05/13 Test 50 75.26 +0.82 69.99 75.78 227K 475K 67.05
Current. Continue with uptrend pattern on low volume.
EPIX 04/19 Cup hdl 24.72 -0.23 24.58 29.52 187K 300K 23.19
Current. Pull back tapping 24.20 at the low and rallied on rising, but average volume. Routine pull back.
ERES 04/29 Test 18 36.66 -0.78 34.48 39.55 1.4M 1.3M 32.47
Current. gapped up at the open, but then gave it all back tapping 35.75 at the low and rallied on much lower, but still above average volume. Testing the break out.
ESRX 05/15 Test 50 79.32 +0.96 77.45 87 711K 1.9M 75.38
Entered today. Continue to move up the 10 day MVA on rising, but still below average volume.
FCEL 05/24 Test 50 15.95 +0.33 16.34 19.72 1.2M 1.4M 15.32
Entered today. Took off on some good volume but was unable to hold
all of the gain. Still looks like a good start to
the rebound move.
FLIR 05/04 Test BO 48.57 -1.19 46.96 53.94 659K 577K 45.78
Current. Gapped down at the open and tapped 47.40 at the intraday low and rallied showing a doji above the 10 day MVA on above average volume. Still in good shape.
GD 05/17 Cup hdl 95.72 +1.84 95.74 108 1.6M 1.2M 91.95
Buy Not Issued. Volume jumped again and GD toyed with the buy point. We watched & watched, but it would not deliver the
clean break. Still looks good, however.
GPRO 05/08 Flat 41.81 +3.64 38.25 44 3.1M 900K 36.68
Current. Explosive move up the 10 day MVA on excellent volume surge.
HSY 04/29 Test BO 88.67 +0.2 89.58 98.75 545K 708K 88.18
Current. Continue to move up showing a doji above the 10 day MVA on stronger above average volume. Needs to break through resistance at 90.
IDEV 05/21 Cup hdl 8.42 -0.26 8.12 9.75 2.4M 800K 7.55
Current. Gapped up at the open, but gave it all back tapping 8.23 at the intraday low and rallied on stronger above average volume. May test the break out.
IDSY 05/05 Test BO 10.8 -1.11 10.48 12.54 308K 123K 11.12
Trailing Stop. Tanked below the 18 day MVA on stronger above average volume.
IDXX 02/02 DB hdl 66.53 +0.81 50.22 74 682K 500K 60.38
IEX 05/20 Test 50 47.4 +0.78 45.68 48 96K 200K 43.96
Buy Not Hit. Moving up the 10 day MVA on lower, below average volume. Have not entered the play, because volume was not there.
IMDC 05/19 Test BO 60.52 +0.24 58.38 65.88 207K 600K 57.12
Buy Not Issued. Tested the 10 day MVA and rallied showing a doji on low volume. Needs low volume pull back or will look to drop.
INGR 05/18 Rv H&S 25.15 -0.24 26.02 31 268K 600K 24.68
Buy Not Hit. Gapped up at the open, but gave it back holding the 10 day MVA on low volume. Still in the pattern.
ITW 05/18 Test BO 89.8 +0.1 86.38 99 2.3M 1.8M 87.88
JBHT 05/17 Test 50 33.09 -0.26 31.88 36.75 896K 1.1M 29.88
Buy Not Issued. Tapped 34 at the day's high, but gave it back showing a tight doji on lower, but above average volume. Needs to pull back with low volume, before we could enter the play.
LXK 05/11 Test 50 93.63 -0.99 94.12 105 1M 1.6M 91.68
Current. Pull back testing the 10 day MVA and rallied on rising, but still below average volume. Still in good shape.
LXK 12/30 Rv H&S 93.63 -0.99 83.65 94 1M 2M 91.68
Current.
MODI 05/25 Rv H&S 30.38 +0.26 30.01 34.65 160K 170K 28.32
Current. Continue to move up the 10 day MVA on lower, but still above average volume.
MOGN 05/11 Test 50 63.81 -0.19 63.62 70 429K 900K 61.94
Current. Tapped 65.63 at the high, but gave it back showing a doji o0n low volume. Still in uptrend pattern.
MRVL 05/22 Dbl btm 47.01 +1.07 44.65 49.25 3M 4.5M 44.44
MSSN 04/27 Test BO 4.83 +0.08 4.89 5.92 319K 615K 4.32
Current. Continue to move up the 10 day MVA on rising, but still below average volume.
MXIM 05/25 Dbl btm 50.3 +0.3 50.25 56 6.8M 7M 47.12
Buy Not Issued. Again some good trade as it toyed with the buy point late. We considered entering but decided to wait &
see if it can make a more definitive break higher.
NMSS 05/23 Test 50 8.6 -0.23 8.62 10.35 251K 624K 8.02
Buy Not Issued. Pull back tapping 8.50 at the low and rallied on lower, below average volume. Routine pull back.
NXTP 05/12 Cup hdl 16.1 +0.12 15.36 18.22 5.2M 3M 14.38
Current. Tapped 15.71 at the intraday low and rallied showing a tight doji as stock moves up the 10 day MVA on much stronger above average volume. Doji may indicate a change in pattern.
NXTP 05/06 Cup 16.1 +0.12 15.22 18.12 5.2M 3M 14.38
Current.
OCLR 05/04 Cup 33.67 -0.42 30.22 34.65 310K 160K 32.32
Current. Pull back testing the 10 day MVA and rallied on lower, but still above average volume. Still in good shape.
PG 05/11 Test 50 108.58 +0.98 107.55 112.25 3M 4M 105.72
Current. Continue to move up the 10 day MVA on rising, but still below average volume. Making a 52 week high.
PLT 05/20 DB hdl 39.66 +0.11 39.05 45 241K 694K 36.88
Buy Not Issued. Making a lateral move above the 10 day MVA on low volume. Have not entered the play, because volume is not there.
PNR 05/18 Test 50 60.59 +0.69 60.06 64 163K 466K 58.28
Buy Not Issued. Continue to move up the 10 day MVA on low volume. Have not entered the play, because volume was not there.
QCOM 04/17 Test 50 66.8 +0.23 66.35 79 8.3M 14M 64.05
Current. Moving up the 10 day MVA showing a doji on rising, but still below average volume.
RMD 04/13 Cup hdl 50.83 +0.47 47.84 54.55 155K 382K 47.62
Current. Tapped 50.25 at the low and rallied showing a doji on rising, but still below average volume. Continue with uptrend pattern. Broke through resistance at 50.72.
RNT 05/22 Test BO 29.53 -0.04 29.49 33.79 66K 234K 27.69
Current. Routine pull back on very low volume.
SBUX 03/22 Test 50 40.02 +0.35 39 47 4.3M 4.5M 38.12
Current. Gapped up at the open showing a doji on stronger above average volume. Made a 52 week high. Doji may indicate a change in pattern.
SBUX 07/30 Cup 40.02 +0.35 30.35 36.75 4.3M 6M 38.12
Current.
SBUX 07/01 Cup 40.02 +0.35 26.3 30.94 4.3M 6M 38.12
Current.
SHFL 05/15 Test 50 34.07 +0.52 32.72 27.62 1.5M 800K 31.12
Buy Not Issued. Tapped 32.55 at the low and rallied on stronger above average volume. Needs to pull back with low volume, before we can enter the play.
SIE 05/15 Asc Tri 43.25 -0.06 40.48 48 754K 602K 39.12
Current. Pull back showing a tight doji on much lower, but still above average volume. Still in uptrend.
SSP 05/25 Test 50 105.01 +1 104.01 109.85 211K 245K 101.95
Current. Gapped up at the open and continued to rally on slightly lower, but still above average volume. Needs to break through resitance at 106
TRBS 05/25 Asc Tri 43.82 -0.29 43.98 50.45 133K 175K 42.35
Current. Pull back tapping 43.32 at the low and rallied on lower, but still above average volume. Routine pull back.
UOPX 11/03 Test 50 89.42 +0.77 71.12 84 98K 315K 84.68
Current. Continue with uptrend on low volume.
UOPX 10/25 Test 50 89.42 +0.77 68.95 82 98K 315K 84.68
Current.
URBN 05/08 Flat 52.69 +3.18 51.18 59.55 2.1M 972K 48.18
Entered today. Great move up the 10 day MVA on very strong volume surge.
URBN 03/29 Flat 52.69 +3.18 49.85 56.68 2.1M 725K 46.22
Current.
VISG 05/26 Dbl btm 10.07 -0.27 10.54 13 1.8M 3M 9.78
Buy Not Issued. Pull back on lower, below average volume. Stillin good shape.
WFMI 04/20 Cup 84.66 +0.38 79.58 91 718K 1M 77.48
Current. Continue with uptrend on lower, but average volume.
WITS 05/13 Asc Tri 13.45 +0.18 14.32 17.25 195K 510K 13.48
Buy Not Hit. Tapped 13.12 and rallied holding just above the 10 day MVA on low volume. Still in the pattern.
YHOO 04/07 Cup hdl 30.56 +0.45 27.59 31.38 19M 15M 27.04
Current. Continue to move up the 10 day MVA on low volume.
ZBRA 03/06 Test 50 80.82 -1.18 73.48 86.55 416K 517K 77.05
Pull back on stronger above average volume. May test back to the 10 day MVA.
ZILA 05/20 Flat 5.09 +0.02 5.08 6.12 106K 285K 4.88
Current. Tested the 18 day MVA and rallied on rising, but still below average volume. Making a lateral move.
ZMH 04/17 Rv H&S 85.2 +0.1 82.09 94.48 1.5M 170K 81.12
Current. Tapped 84.43 at the low and rallied showing a tight doji on lower, but still above average volume. Beginning to make a lateral move.
Downside Plays
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
$SOX 05/05 Put 482.46 +4.27 443.12 424 0 0 451.22
Current. Rallied tapping the 200 day MVA, but gave some of it back.
BRL 05/10 Put 43.34 +0.12 43.02 40 1.2M 1.6M 44.39
Current. Rallied showing a tight doji on slightly above average volume. Holding below resistance.
DHR 05/13 Put 46.65 +0.65 44.88 43.12 1.7M 950K 45.83
Exited. Rallied on rising volume holding above the 50 day MVA.
ETN 05/13 Put 58.13 +0.19 57.38 54.38 777K 1.1M 57
Current. Tapped 58.98 at the high, but could not hold the gain showing a tight doji on low volume. Holding at resistance.
JCI 05/15 Put 54.06 -0.16 52.12 49.45 1M 1.3M 52.72
Current. More volatile session. Moving down the 10 day MVA showing a doji just above the 10 day MVA on stronger above average volume. Doji may indicate a change in pattern.
LEH 05/20 Put 75.87 +0.76 73.93 70.88 3M 2.5M 75.75
Buy Not Issued. Rallied showing a doji on the 200 day MVA on stronger above average volume. Will see if doji indicates a turn over, if not will drop.
End part 2 of 3
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