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Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers Thursday: GPRO; URBN
In each report we prepare full write-ups for those plays that look ready to move. Those that have made the move or are still setting up are discussed in the continuing play table. The purpose is to focus on those stocks that are set to move.
NEW PLAYS: This section includes plays from all sections other than pre-announcements. Those are contained in the pre-announcement section.
New Pre-Split Plays:
Play Date: 05/27/2004
RIO (Companhia Vale Do Rio Doce--$51.51; +1.53; optionable): Steel & iron. Splits 3:1 on a date to be determined.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/rio.html
STATUS: Rebound. After suffering with the rest of the metals the past two months, RIO found bottom and this week broke back over the 200 day SMA 49.32) on rising volume. Thursday volume jumped solidly above average as it moved off the 50 and 200 day SMA. 49.89, 49.32). That cleared some serious resistance and opened up some more upside for RIO. Looking for a rebound back up toward the prior high.
Volume: 943.1K Avg Volume: 799.338K
BUY POINT: $51.88 Volume=1M Target=$60 Stop=$49.22
POSITION: RI OU - Sept. $50c (64 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/rio.html
New Post-Split Plays:
Play Date: 05/27/2004
BKST (Brookstone--$19.36; -0.05; no options): Specialty item stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bkst.html
STATUS: 50 day EMA test. After splitting in late April BKST came under some pressure along with the rest of the market, coming back to the 50 day EMA (18.37). It held at that important support level where the big money will step in to support the stock. It held that level on strong volume and bounced. It is jumped on strong volume again Tuesday, then faded on lower traded the next two sessions, but is holding over the 18 day EMA (18.97) on the lows and rebounding. Super money flow is leading higher, and we are looking for the stock to give us a high volume move to follow that money higher.
Volume: 87.426K Avg Volume: 148.09K
BUY POINT: $19.65 Volume=175K Target=$22.75 Stop=$18.36
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/bkst.html
Play Date: 05/27/2004
SCSC (Scansource--$53.10; +0.41; optionable): Wholesale computers
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/scsc.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Volume was up solidly above average Thursday as SCSC works toward the breakout from an 18 week base sporting excellent 6 to 1 accumulation. The handle has formed over the 50 day EMA (51.08), a great support level where money moves in to support the stock (that is, buy new positions). Money flow is surging ahead of price, and with that strong accumulation we are looking for the price to follow the money higher.
Volume: 264.29K Avg Volume: 131.59K
BUY POINT: $53.77 Volume=200K Target=$61 Stop=$50.88
POSITION: UHI IK - Sept. $55c (45 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/scsc.html
Continuing Leader Plays: May turn into a split, but a solid stock ready to move.
Play Date: 05/24/2004
AEOS (American Eagle Outfitters--$28.40; +0.02; optionable): Apparel stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/aeos.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. AEOS is forming a handle to its short 8 week base that has formed over the 50 day EMA (26.19). Holding the 50 day EMA is a sign of institutional support for the stock. Relative strength is solid. After a few more days of lateral move it should be ready for the breakout.
Volume: 806.07K Avg Volume: 1.636M
BUY POINT: New: $28.68 (orig. $28.32) Volume=2.2M Target=$32 Stop=$26.34
POSITION: AQU KE - Aug. $25c (73 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/aeos.html
Play Date: 05/25/2004
MXIM (Maxim Integrated--$50.30; +0.30; optionable): Semiconductors
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mxim.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Volume continues to looks solid, and MXIM continues to flirt with a strong move. We were ready to get in Thursday, but it could not make the definitive break. Still solid and moving over the 'hump' in the double bottom (50.01). Needs continued volume and a better break higher.
Volume: 6.773M Avg Volume: 6.364M
BUY POINT: New: $50.55 (orig. $50.25) Volume=7M Target=$56 Stop=$47.12
POSITION: XIQ HJ - Aug. $50c (53 delta) or XIQ KJ - Nov. $50c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/mxim.html
Play Date: 05/04/2004
OCLR (Ocular Sciences--$33.67; -0.42; optionable): Medical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/o/oclr.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Volume remains strong as OCLR bumps against 34, ready for another strong break higher. Great consolidation with money flow moving higher ahead of price as it moves laterally. Just being patient and waiting for the move.
Volume: 310.438K Avg Volume: 148K
BUY POINT: New: $34.42 (orig. $30.22) Volume=160K Target=New positions: $40 (orig. positions $34.65) Stop=$32.32
POSITION: QLO JG - Oct. $35c (51 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/oclr.html
Play Date: 05/20/2004
PLT (Plantronics--$39.66; +0.11; optionable): Telecom products (headsets)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/plt.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Still looking very solid in the handle of its 17 week base, tapping at 40. Volume has not yet made its move, so it has not been able to breakout of that pattern. Excellent 5 to 2 accumulation (5 up price weeks on rising volume to 2 down price weeks on rising volume) as money continues to move into the stock even as it consolidates. Very strong with money flow still shooting higher ahead of price. Just waiting for that breakout.
Volume: 240.8K Avg Volume: 426.636K
BUY POINT: New: $40.12 (orig. $39.05) Volume=694K Target=$45 Stop=$36.88
POSITION: PLT HH - Aug. $40c (38 delta) or PLT HG - Aug. $35c (79 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/plt.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
Current Pre-Announcement Plays: In each report we look at the candidates that are in the best patterns ahead of their potential announcements. This focus on leaders in good patterns allows us to make good money even if companies do not announce the split, something that they are still gun-shy of even after the market has made a good recovery as well as the economy. The key with splits now is in the pattern; yes there is a positive move on the announcement, but stocks in this market need to have a good pattern of accumulation to really benefit from a split announcement.
APOL: Forecast 6-12-04 before the open.
CHS: Forecast 5-27-04 after the close. No split but surging profits. CHS has announced in June, and we will pinpoint that date.
CRL: No announcement 4-28-04. Still trying to hold the 50 day EMA.
CWTR: Forecast 5-26-04 or on 6-12-04 with its shareholder meeting. No split announcement 5-26, so looking at 6-12.04.
DGX: Forecast 7-22-04 before the open.
ESRX: Forecast 5-26-04 with its shareholder meeting. No split but holding up well.
FLIR: Forecast 7-21-04
GD: Forecast 6-3-04
HUG: Forecast 5-25-04 after the close. No split announced but holding well at the 50 day EMA.
IDXX: Forecast 7-22-04.
ITW: Forecast 7-20-04
LXK: Forecast 7-22-04.
POOL: Forecast 7-22-04
QCOM: Forecast 7-22-04
RNT: Forecast 7-28-04.
RS: Forecast 5-19-04. No split announcement but good volume move back over the 50 day EMA.
TRBS: Forecast 7-15-04
UOPX: Forecast 6-24-04 before the open.
URBN: Forecast 6-1-04 at its shareholder meeting.
WFMI: Forecast 7-28-94.
XRAY: Researching the next date. Nice recovery over the 18 day EMA.
ZBRA: Forecast 6-3-04 at annual shareholder meeting.
ZMH: Forecast 7-21-04.
Full Write-ups: We do not cover all candidates in full in each report, but focus on those ready to make a move or are right at their forecast announcement date. This way we are focused on those stocks ready to make moves.
New Pre-Announcement Plays:
Play Date: 05/27/2004
CECO (Career Education--$66.41; +1.47; optionable): Forecast to announce a split on 7-20-04 in conjunction with earnings. The company has not confirmed this date, but based upon our research this is the date for the event
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for 1 split on 7-22-03 in conjunction with earnings. The stock price was $75. Prior to that announced a 2 for 1 split on 7-31-01 in conjunction with earnings. The stock price was $63. Prior to that announced a 2 for 1 split in July 2000 at a stock price of approximately $52. The annual shareholder meeting was on 5-21-04 at which time additional shares were authorized.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/ceco.html
STATUS: 50 day EMA test. After an excellent surge March to April, CECO has taken a breather, coming back to test the 50 day EMA (61.49), a natural spot to consolidate. It held the 50 day EMA to start the week and moved over the short term MA Thursday on rising though still below average volume. A 50 day EMA test is a good place to initiate positions, but we want to see strong trade on a further move to enter the play.
Volume: 1.631M Avg Volume: 1.901M
BUY POINT: $66.88 Volume=2M Target=$76.95 Stop=$63.45
POSITION: CUY JM - Oct. $65c (62 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ceco.html
Continuing Pre-Announcement Plays:
Play Date: 03/20/2004
DGX (Quest Diagnostics--$85.68; +0.93; optionable): Medical Laboratories. Forecast 7-22-04 before the market opens in conjunction with earnings.
BACKGROUND. Announced a 2:1 split on 2-22-01 at a price of $101.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dgx.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Good move this week off of the 50 day EMA (83.07) as volume has jumped above average. Nice action in the handle to its 23 month base. Looking ready to make the move through the buy point.
Volume: 814.2K Avg Volume: 587.227K
BUY POINT: $86.32 Volume=973K Target=$100 Stop=$81.92
POSITION: DGX HQ - Aug. $85c (42 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/dgx.html
Play Date: 05/17/2004
GD (General Dynamics--$95.72; +1.84; optionable): Aerospace/defense. Forecast to announce a split on 6-3-04 in conjunction with a board meeting or on 7-21-04 in conjunction with earnings.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for 1 split on 3-4-98 in conjunction with a board meeting at a stock price of $85. The annual shareholder meeting was on 5-5-04 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gd.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Volume has jumped the past two sessions, and Thursday GD gapped higher and was rallying, but it could not quite make the breakout move. It is knocking on the door, however, and on a further move on decent trade we will move in.
Volume: 1.591M Avg Volume: 824.636K
BUY POINT: $95.74 Volume=1.2M Target=$108 Stop=$91.95
POSITION: GD KS - Nov. $95c (53 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/gd.html
Play Date: 04/17/2004
QCOM (Qualcom--$66.8; +0.23; optionable): Telecom equipment. Forecast to announce a split July 22 in conjunction with earnings. Earnings date has not been confirmed by the company.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 4 for 1 split on 11-22-99 at a stock price of $224.
Also announced a 2 for1 split on 4-14-99 at a stock price of $150. Prior to that announced a 2 for 1 split on 2-10-94 at a stock price of $47. The annual shareholder meeting was on 3-2-04 at which time no additional shares were authorized, but company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/q/qcom.html
STATUS: 50 day EMA test. Nice lateral move the past two sessions as QCOM looks to be forming a short handle to its nice 8 week cup base that has formed to consolidate the nice run from May 2003 to April. Want to see the volume kick back up as it makes the next move.
Volume: 8.319M Avg Volume: 9.009M
BUY POINT: New: $67.22 (orig. $66.35) Volume=14M Target=$79 Stop=$64.05
POSITION: AAO GM - July $65c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/qcom.html
PRE-SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 05/20/2004
IEX (Idex--$47.40; +0.78; optionable): Machinery. Splits 3:2 on 6-1-04
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/iex.htm
STATUS: 50 day EMA test. Nice bolt higher Tuesday and test Wednesday. Starting back up now, and all we want to see is some more above average volume on the move.
Volume: 95.9K Avg Volume: 142.363K
BUY POINT: New positions: $47.82 (orig. $45.68) Volume=200K Target=New positions: 52 (orig. positions: $48) Stop=$43.96
POSITION: IEX JI - Oct. $45c (52 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/iex.html
POST SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 05/15/2004
SHFL (Shuffle Master--$34.07; +0.52; optionable): Gaming machines
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/shfl.html
STATUS: 50 day EMA test. After bouncing off the 50 day EMA (31.64) last week, SHFL is holding up well as it waited for earnings. The earnings were solid and volume jumped Thursday as the stock reached down toward the 50 day on the low and rebounded for a gain on strong trade. Excellent money flow, and now we just let it make the next move.
Volume: 1.496M Avg Volume: 725.954K
BUY POINT: New: $34.62 (orig. $32.72) Volume=800K Target=$39.85 Stop=$31.12
POSITION: SVF HF - Aug. $30c (69 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/shfl.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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