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Begin part 2 of 2
Support and Resistance
NASDAQ: Closed at 1986.74
Resistance: 1990 to 2000, the top of the late 2003 base. 2050 represents some prior price points and has stopped NASDAQ the last time it tried that level. Breakout from the pattern is 2080. 2089 is the February closing high. 2112 is the early January high.
Support: The simple 50 day MA (1972) and 50 day EMA (1966). The 200 day SMA (1956). 1900 to 1890. The April lows (1880, 1878). 1850 below that. Some price tops at 1777, 1750.
S&P 500: Closed at 1120.68
Resistance: 1125 stalled the last bounce attempt. The April and January highs (1150 to 1155). Next is 1159 (February highs) and 1160 to 1175 the highs in that double top that spanned late 2001, early 2002.
Support: The exponential 50 day MA (1114), and the simple 50 day MA (1117). The 18 day EMA (1107). 1106 is a May 2002 top and represents some early 2001 lows. 1096 to 1100. The 200 day SMA (1085). April lows (1079, 1076). 1075 to 1070 from the December consolidation. 1058 - 1060 from November tops.
Dow: Closed at 10,188.45
Resistance: The 50 day EMA (10,214). The simple 50 day MA (10,247) and price resistance at 10,250. 10,570 is the April high. Price consolidation at 10,600 level. 10,747 is the February high.
Support: The 18 day EMA (10,104). The 200 day SMA (10,064). March low (10,007). 9900-9850.
Economic Calendar
These are consensus expectations. Our expectations will vary and are discussed in the 'Economy' section.
6-01-04
Construction spending, April (10:00): 0.4% expected, 1.5% March.
ISM Index, May (10:00): 61.5 expected, 62.4 April.
6-03-04
Productivity, rev. Q1 (8:30): 3.7% expected, 3.5% prior.
Initial jobless claims (8:30): 337K expected, 344K prior.
Factory orders, April (10:00): -1.0% expected, 4.3% March.
ISM Services, May (10:00): 66.0 expected, 68.4 April.
6-04-04
Non-farm payrolls, May (8:30): 215K expected, 288K April.
Unemployment rate, May (8:30): 5.6% expected, 5.6% April.
Hourly earnings (8:30): 0.2% expected, 0.3% April.
Average workweek (8:30): 33.8 expected, 33.7 April.
THE PLAYS
Thursday night play results:
SBSE: Still working laterally in the breakout test.
SWW: Surged higher on strong trade but then revered and gave the move back.
ZEUS: Nice volume as it started the breakout move.
New plays for Tuesday:
Upside:
Play Date: 05/29/2004
BID (Sothebys--$14.91; -0.05; no options): Auctions
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bid.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Pulling back off the high in the pattern the past two sessions on lower volume after surging to form the right side of its 14 week base. Excellent 6 to 2 accumulation in the base (6 up price weeks on rising volume to 2 down price weeks on rising volume) showing that money has moved into the stock during the base, setting the foundation for a breakout and subsequent run higher. Excellent money flow, still surging higher ahead of price. Relative strength has broken out, a signal that the stock is outperforming the market overall. Looking for perhaps another day or two of a pullback and then a break higher out of the pattern.
Volume: 253K Avg Volume: 311.454K
BUY POINT: $15.28 Volume=465K Target=$18.34 Stop=$14.21
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/bid.html
Play Date: 05/29/2004
GLW (Corning--$12.39; +0.20; optionable): Telecom equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/glw.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. GLW is working on a handle to an 18 week base that has been forming since NASDAQ peaked in January. The handle is just getting underway but the accumulation in the base is solid at 4 to 1, and money flow is surging ahead of price. The stock held its 200 day SMA (11.01) as the base formed, indicating that institutions were not selling the shares they recently bought as the stock came back to test this key support level. Looking for the handle to form over the next few sessions and then for the stock to follow the money higher. Has held up well in the selling, forming its base as opposed to breaking down.
Volume: 4.84M Avg Volume: 9.152M
BUY POINT: $12.78 Volume=12M Target=$15.35 Stop=$11.89
POSITION: GLW KV - Nov. $12.50c (53 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/glw.html
Play Date: 05/29/2004
TUNE (Microtune--$3.44; +0.34; no options): Semiconductor integrated circuits
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tune.html
STATUS: Breakout test. TUNE broke out of a 10.5 month cup with handle base in mid-April, surged to 3.75 and then came back to test the breakout in the market selling. It fell rather sharply , but managed to hold the 50 day EMA (2.93), a support level that also held the breakout. Accumulation in the base was a solid 9 to 4, setting up the breakout. After a four week latterly move TUNE shot higher Friday on a nice above average volume surge. Indeed, volume improved the last part of the week leading up to this move. Looks supper with strong money flow leading the way higher.
Volume: 624.266K Avg Volume: 324.09K
BUY POINT: $3.54 Volume=486K Target=$4.64 Stop=$3.29
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/tune.html
Continuing upside plays:
SUBSCRIBER PORTFOLIO: These are stocks subscribers suggest by vote that we put in a portfolio to track and move into the stocks if they perform well. If you have any suggestions for additions or deletions, email us. We don't cover them all each report, just when something interesting is developing.
ALDN, BRCM, CECO, COH, DNA, EBAY, GTRC, LPNT, TGT
BRCM: Moving laterally on lower volume forming something of a handle after a strong surge higher to retake the 50 day EMA. Setting up for the next move.
LPNT: Volume surged Thursday but LPNT gave back the move. Still looks ready to make a more definitive break higher.
SUBSCRIBER WATCHLIST
We continually receive ideas for potential plays from subscribers. Many times they are already on our watchlists, other times not. We always take a look and sometimes find a gem or two, or more. We don't necessarily endorse these, but want to provide a forum for subscribers with ideas that may appeal to other subscribers. We may just put on the ticker or we might describe our thoughts as to why or why not we think it is a buy or sell. This is a way we can all learn a bit more and maybe find a few more candidates to make us some good money.
Upside:
CVD: Pinching off between the 50 day EMA below ant roughly 36 on the highs the past 6 weeks. This comes after a long run higher; it needs more rest than this pattern is giving it.
Downside:
BBOX: Big gap down from the 200 day SMA a week back, followed by a climb back up to the 10 day EMA, but losing momentum each day of the move. Looks to be stalling at the 10 day.
CONTINUING PLAYS
Continuing that are ready to move: AKAM; BEV; CEN
* * SPREADSHEET DOWNLOAD * * *
The following link is to a spreadsheet download of the continuing play table. It will allow subscribers to sort the data for your personal investment use. This is a service to our subscribers only, and no other use of the information is authorized. Simply click on the link, enter your username and password, and download the spreadsheet!
http://investmenthouse.com/daily/table.php
You will need your password. If you need help click on this link and our automated system will email it to you immediately once you fill in your email address:
http://www.investmenthouse.com/rescue/rescue.php3
LEGEND FOR CONTINUING PLAY TABLE
DATE: date play first appeared on report.
PLAY: Denotes the type of pattern or play.
Upside play types: Asc Tri=Ascending triangle; BO=Breakout; Cup=Cup base; Cup hdl=Cup w/handle; DB hdl=Double bottom w/handle; Dbl btm=Double bottom; Flat=Flat base; FlyPlat=Flying Plateau; Pennant=Pennant; Rv H&S=Reverse head & shoulders; Saucer=Saucer base; Test 18=Testing 18 day MVA; Test 50=Testing 50 day MVA; Test BO=Testing the breakout (could be 10 day MVA test, etc.)
Downside play types: CCall=Covered Call; Dsc Tri=Descending triangle; Dbl Top=Double top; H&S=Head & shoulders; Put (generic downside);
PIVOT=Buy point
Tgt=Target stock price for the play. Applies to stock and options.
Vol=Volume for the most recent session.
TgtV=Target volume to enter the play.
Stop=Stop advisory point. This is advisory and we may or may not exit a play if it hits this level depending upon market conditions.
PLAY STATUS: Buy not hit (stock has not hit buy point); Buy not issued (stock has hit buy point but did not enter due to weak volume, poor intraday action, poor market action); Current (ongoing play already entered); Entered today (entered the play that session); Exited (closed the position); Target hit (play hit initial target; will note if took all or partial gain or let run further); Trailing stop (exited using a trailing stop loss).
Upside Plays
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
ABM 05/17 Flat 19.02 -0.05 18.99 21.85 77K 185K 18.58
Current. Pull back tapping 18.96 at the low and rallied on very low volume. Still in the pattern.
AKAM 05/26 DB hdl 14.86 0 15.32 18 1.3M 4.8M 14.14
Buy Not Hit. Beginning to make a low volume lateral move above the 10 day MVA.
ANF 05/22 Cup hdl 36.43 +0.36 35.25 40.55 714K 2.7M 33.38
Buy Not Issued. Tapped 35.69 at the low and rallied as stock continues to move up the 10 day MVA on low volume. The stock has not made the move with the volume we wanted so will drop, but will keep our eye on it.
ATRM 05/08 Test BO 9.19 +0.29 8.82 10.55 1.3M 177K 8.22
Current. Continue to move up the 10 day MVA for a nice gain showing a doji on very strong volume. Made a 52 week high.
BEIQ 05/08 Cup 26.54 -0.72 24.12 28 226K 124K 24.05
Current. Pull back tapping 26.14 at the low and rallied on much lower, but still above average volume. Routine pull back after break out.
BEV 05/17 DB hdl 8.48 +0.23 8.52 10.25 1.6M 2.5M 7.92
Buy Not Issued. Nice move up the 10 day MVA on rising, but only average volume. Needs to break through resistance here.
BLUD 05/18 Test BO 31.19 +0.09 27.49 32 316K 500K 28.96
Current. Beginning to make a lateral move on rising, but still below average volume showing a tight doji.
BRCM 05/24 Flat 42.35 -0.28 41.44 47.42 5.9M 13M 40.44
Current. Pull back tapping 42.11 at the low and rallied showing a tight doji on much lower, below average volume. Still in the pattern.
CEN 05/25 Cup hdl 22.4 +0.18 22.58 26 373K 1.1M 21.45
Buy Not Hit. Gapped up at the open showing a tight doji on lower, below average volume. Needs to break through resistance here.
CNTY 05/22 Test BO 5.57 +0.07 5.52 6.82 145K 145K 4.98
Current. Gapped up at the open, but gave some of it back on much lower, but average volume. Still moving up the 10 day MVA.
CYBS 05/13 Test BO 8.45 -0.38 8.35 9.95 439K 645K 7.88
Current. Tapped 8.94 at the intraday high, but gave it back on lower, below average volume. Still in good shape.
EBAY 03/06 Flat 88.8 +0.75 71.78 82.25 8.7M 10M 82.36
Current. Continue to move up the 10 day MVA on lower, but average volume.
EBAY 12/12 Test 18 88.8 +0.75 34.72 46 8.7M 12M 82.36
Current.
EBAY 10/15 Test 50 88.8 +0.75 31.22 46 8.7M 12M 82.36
Current.
EEFT 05/10 Asc Tri 22.99 +0.04 20.67 24.75 313K 425K 21.42
Current. Continue to move up the 10 day MVA on stronger, but only slightly above average volume.
EGLS 05/18 Dbl btm 5.25 +0.14 5.09 6.18 134K 212K 4.68
Current. Tapped 5.08 at the low and rallied showing a tight doji on lower, but average volume. Continue to move up the 10 day MVA.
ELN 05/25 Test 50 23.49 +0.41 23.02 27 2.1M 10M 22.02
Current. Moving up the 10 day MVA on very low volume. Needs to break through resistance here.
EW 05/19 Cup hdl 36.25 -0.13 35.77 41 408K 722K 34.28
Buy Not Issued. Pull back tapping 35.99 at the low and rallied on lower, below average volume. Still in uptrend.
GNSC 04/28 Dbl btm 4.35 +0.1 4.02 4.98 130K 172K 3.98
Current. Tapped 4.28 at the low and rallied showing a doji on lower, but still above average volume. Continue to move up the 10 day MVA.
HLEX 05/06 Cup hdl 15.25 -0.33 14.64 17.55 297K 300K 14.48
Current. Pull back testing the 10 day MVA and rallied on stronger above average volume. May test back to support at 15 (10 day MVA)
LPNT 05/12 Cup hdl 37.6 +0.36 37.38 43 258K 700K 36.38
Current. Tested the 10 day MVA and rallied on lower, below average volume. Needs to break through resistance here.
MACE 05/26 Test 50 5.61 +0.07 6.39 9 6.6M 4M 5.94
Buy Not Issued. Tested the 10 day MVA and rallied on much lower, but above average volume. Needs to break through resistance at 6.
NABI 04/05 Asc Tri 16.8 -0.15 16.68 20.25 307K 950K 16.38
Current. Tapped 17 at the intraday high, but gave it back showing a doji on the 10 day MVA on lower, below average volume. Still in good shape.
NAVR 04/09 Flat 12.31 -0.53 7.43 9.12 1.4M 733K 11.02
Current. Tapped 12.80 at the intraday high, but gave it back on much lower, above average volume. Still in an uptrend.
NTRT 05/11 Cup hdl 13.99 +0.28 13.55 16.25 86K 175K 12.88
Buy Not Issued. Continue to make a low volume ascent. The stock has not made the move we were looking for with the volume needed, so will drop, but will keep our eye on it.
NXTP 05/12 Cup hdl 16.31 +0.21 15.36 18.22 1.8M 3M 15.02
Current. Continue with uptrend pattern on lower, below average volume.
OLGC 04/29 Dbl btm 8.03 -0.02 8.58 10.25 73K 295K 8.05
Buy Not Issued. Beginning to make a lateral move just above the 50 day MVA on lower, below average volume. The stock has not made the move we were looking for so will drop, but will keep our eye on it.
RHAT 05/18 Asc Tri 27.33 -0.03 27.32 31.25 2.7M 7M 25.36
Current. Beginning to make a lateral move on lower, below average volume. Routine pull back.
RHB 05/24 Cup hdl 24.98 +0.52 24.33 27.98 108K 212K 22.72
Buy Not Hit. Continue with low volume ascent. Have not entered the play, because the volume was not there. The stock did not make the move we were looing for so will drop, but will keep our eye on it.
SBSE 05/27 Test BO 18.5 -0.2 19.05 22.88 94K 200K 17.72
Buy Not Hit. Continue with low volume ascent. Have not entered the play, because the volume was not there.
SBUX 07/30 Cup 40.6 +0.58 30.35 36.75 4.3M 6M 38.82
Current. Continue to move up the 10 day MVA on strong volume Broke through resistance at 40. Made a 52 week high.
SBUX 07/01 Cup 40.6 +0.58 26.3 30.94 4.3M 6M 38.82
Current.
SMF 05/20 Cup hdl 15.54 -0.11 14.74 17.55 312K 121K 14.45
Current. Pull back tapping 15.06 at the intraday low and rallied showing a doji on much stronger above average volume. Doji may indicate a change in pattern.
SMRT 05/18 DB hdl 14.44 +0.14 14.18 17 150K 337K 13.32
Buy Not Issued. Continue with low volume ascent. Looking for a pull back before we can enter the play.
SMTC 05/26 Dbl btm 25.12 -0.11 25.24 29 1.2M 1.7M 23.47
Buy Not Issued. Gapped up at the open, but gave it back on stronger above average volume. Routine pull back.
SNTS 05/24 Cup hdl 14.1 -0.05 13.25 15.98 124K 135K 13.32
Current. Gapped up at the open, but gave it back on rising volume Beginning to make a lateral move.
SONE 05/05 Cup hdl 9.31 -0.22 9.72 11.88 466K 625K 9.12
Current. Tapped 9.55 at the high, but gave it all back showing a doji just above the 10 day MVA on lower, but average volume. Testing the break out.
SWW 05/27 Flat 3.13 -0.02 3.24 4.06 874K 204K 3.01
Entered today. Was surging on big volume but then reversed to close
basically flat. Dont like the intraday reversals but
will let it turn up if it will.
TGT 08/09 Flat 44.7 +0.29 41.45 50 2.3M 5.7M 44.28
TWW 05/24 Cup hdl 1.09 +0.15 1.06 1.39 2.7M 468K 0.99
Entered today. Tested the 10 day MVA and rallied for an explosive move on excellent volume surge.
ULGX 05/21 Test BO 14.04 +0.04 11.97 14.16 197K 228K 12.74
Current. Gapped up at the open, but gave some of it back on lower, but average volume. Still in uptrend.
USPI 05/03 Cup 38.91 +0.41 39.37 44.78 516K 370K 37.22
Entered today. Continue to move up the 10 day MVA on excellent volume surge.
VRSN 05/25 DB hdl 18.14 0 18.92 22.65 2.4M 3.9M 17.62
Buy Not Hit. Tested the 18 day MVA and rallied showing a doji closing flat on lower, below average volume. Beginning to make a lateral move
VXGNE 04/28 Cup hdl 15.87 +0.29 14.98 17.25 2M 1.1M 15.05
Current. Gapped down at the open and rallied on low volume. Needs to break through resistance at 16.36.
VXGNE 04/19 Cup hdl 15.87 +0.29 13.58 16.15 2M 1.1M 15.05
Current.
WMB 05/04 Cup hdl 11.91 -0.02 11.08 13.25 2.4M 5.4M 11.38
Current. Pull back showing a tight doji on lower, below average volume. Beginning to make a lateral move.
WOOF 02/23 Cup hdl 43.03 -0.58 31.24 37 380K 296K 41.72
Current. Pull back on rising, but average volume. Still in good shape.
ZEUS 05/27 DB hdl 14.2 +0.59 14.17 17.18 356K 253K 13.18
Entered today. Great move up the 10 day MVA on excellent volume surge.
Downside Plays
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
EMIS 05/10 Put 5.09 -0.11 4.98 4 37K 145K 5.32
Current. Volatile session as stock moves down the 10 day MVA on very low volume.
MCO 05/13 Put 65.39 -0.05 63.15 60.42 360K 804K 64.42
Current. Moving down testing the 10 day MVA, but rallied on very low volume holding at support at the 50 day MVA.
SEM 05/23 Put 13.41 -0.05 13.11 11.05 1.2M 2M 14.02
Buy Not Issued. Continue to make a lateral move on low volume.
VSH 05/08 Put 18.87 +0.26 18.45 16.55 2.1M 2.6M 18.62
Current. Continue to rally on lower, but average volume. Holding below resistance at 19
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and The Daily Staff
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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