|
|
stock recommendation, stock option
Begin part 2 of 2
Support and Resistance
NASDAQ: Closed at 1986.74
Resistance: 1990 to 2000, the top of the late 2003 base. 2050 represents some prior price points and has stopped NASDAQ the last time it tried that level. Breakout from the pattern is 2080. 2089 is the February closing high. 2112 is the early January high.
Support: The simple 50 day MA (1972) and 50 day EMA (1966). The 200 day SMA (1956). 1900 to 1890. The April lows (1880, 1878). 1850 below that. Some price tops at 1777, 1750.
S&P 500: Closed at 1120.68
Resistance: 1125 stalled the last bounce attempt. The April and January highs (1150 to 1155). Next is 1159 (February highs) and 1160 to 1175 the highs in that double top that spanned late 2001, early 2002.
Support: The exponential 50 day MA (1114), and the simple 50 day MA (1117). The 18 day EMA (1107). 1106 is a May 2002 top and represents some early 2001 lows. 1096 to 1100. The 200 day SMA (1085). April lows (1079, 1076). 1075 to 1070 from the December consolidation. 1058 - 1060 from November tops.
Dow: Closed at 10,188.45
Resistance: The 50 day EMA (10,214). The simple 50 day MA (10,247) and price resistance at 10,250. 10,570 is the April high. Price consolidation at 10,600 level. 10,747 is the February high.
Support: The 18 day EMA (10,104). The 200 day SMA (10,064). March low (10,007). 9900-9850.
Economic Calendar
These are consensus expectations. Our expectations will vary and are discussed in the 'Economy' section.
6-01-04
Construction spending, April (10:00): 0.4% expected, 1.5% March.
ISM Index, May (10:00): 61.5 expected, 62.4 April.
6-03-04
Productivity, rev. Q1 (8:30): 3.7% expected, 3.5% prior.
Initial jobless claims (8:30): 337K expected, 344K prior.
Factory orders, April (10:00): -1.0% expected, 4.3% March.
ISM Services, May (10:00): 66.0 expected, 68.4 April.
6-04-04
Non-farm payrolls, May (8:30): 215K expected, 288K April.
Unemployment rate, May (8:30): 5.6% expected, 5.6% April.
Hourly earnings (8:30): 0.2% expected, 0.3% April.
Average workweek (8:30): 33.8 expected, 33.7 April.
THE PLAYS
Good movers Friday: EFJI; MSSN; TWW; WITS
Thursday night play results:
RIO: Eased back on lower volume, testing the breakout.
SBSE: Still moving laterally over the 10 day EMA.
SCSC: Took a day off, still in a great pattern.
SWW: Jumped higher on strong volume but could not hold the move.
New Plays:
Upside:
Play Date: 05/29/2004
ARTC (Arthrocare--$24.48; +0.06; optionable): Medical appliances
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/artc.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. ARTC ended the week starting a handle to its 11 week base. It exploded higher to start the week, rallying on tremendous volume. It spent the last three days of the week easing back on much lower volume. Money flow is surging ahead of price, and we are looking for ARTC to follow that money flow higher. Solid 5 to 3 accumulation in the base.
Volume: 396.022K Avg Volume: 297.181K
BUY POINT: $25.32 Volume=446K Target=$30 Stop=$23.55
POSITION: ARU IE - Sept. $25c (49 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/artc.html
Play Date: 05/29/2004
BID (Sothebys--$14.91; -0.05; no options): Auctions
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bid.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Pulling back off the high in the pattern the past two sessions on lower volume after surging to form the right side of its 14 week base. Excellent 6 to 2 accumulation in the base (6 up price weeks on rising volume to 2 down price weeks on rising volume) showing that money has moved into the stock during the base, setting the foundation for a breakout and subsequent run higher. Excellent money flow, still surging higher ahead of price. Relative strength has broken out, a signal that the stock is outperforming the market overall. Looking for perhaps another day or two of a pullback and then a break higher out of the pattern.
Volume: 253K Avg Volume: 311.454K
BUY POINT: $15.28 Volume=465K Target=$18.34 Stop=$14.21
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/bid.html
Play Date: 05/29/2004
SGTL (Sigmatel--$25.36; +0.64; optionable): Semiconductors
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sgtl.html
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. We are calling this a reverse H&S, but it is hard to pin a name on it. A new issue in September 2003, SGTL is undergoing its first base, a 17 week job after peaking at 32 in January. Accumulation is a strong 6 to 2, and volume was jumping above average Thursday and Friday as SGTL moved off the simple 50 day MA at 24. Money flow is just flat out flying higher ahead of the price. It looks as if all elements are coming together for a strong break higher.
Volume: 563.505K Avg Volume: 281.727K
BUY POINT: $25.88 Volume=423K Target=$31.05 Stop=$24.28
POSITION: UGO IE - Sept. $25c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/sgtl.html
Play Date: 05/29/2004
THQI (THQ, Inc.--$21.09; -0.02; optionable): Multimedia & graphics software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/thqi.html
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. THQI moved laterally to end the week as it puts something of a handle at the end of an 8 week reverse H&S base that formed mostly over the 50 day EMA (19.68). Strong 3 to 1 accumulation in the base and money flow that is solidly moving higher ahead of price. Very neat little pattern, and this lateral move to end the week was on very low, below average volume. That shakes out the last sellers and sets the stage for a stronger breakout.
Volume: 365.319K Avg Volume: 722.318K
BUY POINT: $21.52 Volume=1.1M Target=$25.52 Stop=$20.22
POSITION: QHI ID - Sept. $20c (67 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/thqi.html
Play Date: 05/29/2004
TUNE (Microtune--$3.44; +0.34; no options): Semiconductor integrated circuits
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tune.html
STATUS: Breakout test. TUNE broke out of a 10.5 month cup with handle base in mid-April, surged to 3.75 and then came back to test the breakout in the market selling. It fell rather sharply , but managed to hold the 50 day EMA (2.93), a support level that also held the breakout. Accumulation in the base was a solid 9 to 4, setting up the breakout. After a four week latterly move TUNE shot higher Friday on a nice above average volume surge. Indeed, volume improved the last part of the week leading up to this move. Looks supper with strong money flow leading the way higher.
Volume: 624.266K Avg Volume: 324.09K
BUY POINT: $3.54 Volume=486K Target=$4.64 Stop=$3.29
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/tune.html
CONTINUING PLAY LIST
* * SPREADSHEET DOWNLOAD * * *
The following link is to a spreadsheet download of the continuing play table. It will allow subscribers to sort the data for your personal investment use. This is a service to our subscribers only, and no other use of the information is authorized. Simply click on the link, enter your username and password, and download the spreadsheet!
http://investmenthouse.com/ihalerts/table.php
You will need your password. If you need help click on this link and our automated system will email it to you immediately once you fill in your email address:
http://www.investmenthouse.com/rescue/rescue.php3
LEGEND FOR CONTINUING PLAY TABLE
DATE: date play first appeared on report.
PLAY: Denotes the type of pattern or play.
Upside play types: Asc Tri =Ascending triangle; BO=Breakout; Cup=Cup base; Cup hdl=Cup w/handle; DB hdl=Double bottom w/handle; Dbl btm=Double bottom; Flat=Flat base; FlyPlat=Flying Plateau; Pennant=Pennant; Rv H&S=Reverse head & shoulders; Saucer=Saucer base; Test 18=Testing 18 day MVA; Test 50=Testing 50 day MVA; Test BO=Testing the breakout (could be 10 day MVA test, etc.)
Downside play types: CCall=Covered Call; Dsc Tri=Descending triangle; Dbl Top=Double top; H&S=Head & shoulders; Put (generic downside);
PIVOT=Buy point
Tgt=Target stock price for the play. Applies to stock and options.
Vol=Volume for the most recent session.
TgtV=Target volume to enter the play.
Stop=Stop advisory point. This is advisory and we may or may not exit a play if it hits this level depending upon market conditions.
PLAY STATUS: Buy not hit (stock has not hit buy point); Buy not issued (stock has hit buy point but did not enter due to weak volume, poor intraday action, poor market action); Current (ongoing play already entered); Entered today (entered the play that session); Exited (closed the position); Target hit (play hit initial target; will note if took all or partial gain or let run further); Trailing stop (exited using a trailing stop loss).
Upside Plays
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
ABM 05/17 Flat 19.02 -0.05 18.99 21.85 77K 185K 18.58
Current. Pull back tapping 18.96 at the low and rallied on very low volume. Still in the pattern.
ACLS 05/25 Cup 12.05 -0.13 12.28 14.12 1.3M 1.9M 11.37
Current. Pull back tapping 11.88 at the intraday low and rallied showing a tight doji on lower, but average volume. Routine pull back.
ACXM 05/19 Test 50 24.1 -0.08 24.44 28 407K 1.1M 23.22
Buy Not Issued. Pull back 23.80 at the low and rallied on lower, below average volume. Still in uptrend.
AMT 04/27 Test BO 13.83 -0.04 13.81 16.55 759K 4M 13.22
Current. Routine pull back on very low volume holding above the 10 day MVA.
ARTI 05/10 DB hdl 25.26 +0.19 25.35 29.15 253K 592K 23.58
Buy Not Issued. Continue to move up the 10 day MVA on rising, but still below average volume.
ASKJ 05/12 Test 50 40.4 +1.22 38.55 43.98 2.7M 5.4M 37.15
Current. Bounced off the 10 day MVA and rallied for a nice move on lower, below average volume. Needs to break through resistance at 40.84.
ATRM 05/08 Test BO 9.19 +0.29 8.82 10.55 1.3M 177K 8.22
Current. Continue to move up the 10 day MVA showing a doji on very strong volume. Made a 52 week high.
BCR 12/17 Rv H&S 112.17 +0.1 80.93 92.95 335K 500K 108.22
Current. Continue to move up the 10 day MVA on lower, below average volume. Broke through resistance.
BEV 05/17 DB hdl 8.48 +0.23 8.52 10.25 1.6M 2.5M 7.92
Buy Not Issued. Nice move up the 10 day MVA on stronger above average volume. Needs to break through resistance here.
BIIB 04/17 Cup 62.15 -0.93 60.49 72.88 2M 7.5M 60.22
Current. Routine pull back holding just above the 10 day MVA on very low volume.
BLUD 05/18 Test BO 31.19 +0.09 27.49 32 316K 500K 28.96
Current. Beginning to make a lateral move on rising, but still below average volume showing a tight doji.
BR 05/15 Test 50 66.94 +0.27 67.42 74.22 1M 1.7M 66.45
Current. Tapped 67.59 at the high, but gave most of it back showing a doji on the 18 day MVA on lower, below average volume. Still in good shape.
BRCM 05/22 Flat 42.35 -0.28 41.44 47.42 5.9M 13M 40.44
Current. Pull back tapping 42.11 at the low and rallied showing a tight doji on much lower, below average volume. Still in the pattern.
CEN 05/25 Cup hdl 22.4 +0.18 22.58 26 373K 1.1M 21.45
Buy Not Hit. Gapped up at the open showing a tight doji on lower, below average volume. Needs to break through resistance here.
CRL 04/24 FlyPlat 45.08 +0.08 46.83 53.85 170K 495K 44.15
Current. Beginning to make a lateral move just above the 10 day MVA on lower, below average volume.
EEFT 05/10 Asc Tri 22.99 +0.04 20.67 24.75 313K 425K 21.42
Current. Continue to move up the 10 day MVA on stronger, but only slightly above average volume.
EFJI 05/26 Rv H&S 8.32 +0.77 7.84 9.25 901K 300K 7.29
Entered today. Explosive move up the 10 day MVA on excellent volume surge.
EGLS 05/18 Dbl btm 5.25 +0.14 5.09 6.18 134K 212K 4.68
Current. Tapped 5.08 at the low and rallied showing a tight doji on lower, but average volume. Continue to move up the 10 day MVA.
ELN 05/25 Test 50 23.49 +0.41 23.02 27 2.1M 10M 22.02
Current. Moving up the 10 day MVA on very low volume. Needs to break through resistance here.
EW 05/19 Cup hdl 36.25 -0.13 35.77 41 408K 722K 34.28
Buy Not Issued. Pull back tapping 35.99 at the low and rallied on lower, below average volume. Still in uptrend.
FCEL 05/24 Test 50 15.87 -0.08 16.34 19.72 460K 1.4M 15.32
Current. Pull back tapping 15.54 at the low and rallied on very low volume. Still in good shape.
GNSC 04/28 Dbl btm 4.35 +0.1 4.02 4.98 130K 172K 3.98
Current. Tapped 4.28 at the low and rallied showing a doji on lower, but still above average volume. Continue to move up the 10 day MVA.
HLEX 05/06 Cup hdl 15.25 -0.33 14.64 17.55 297K 300K 14.48
Current. Pull back testing the 10 day MVA and rallied on stronger above average volume. May test back to support at 15 (10 day MVA)
IDXX 02/02 DB hdl 65.74 -0.79 50.22 74 359K 500K 61.88
Pull back on much lower, but still above average volume. Still in uptrend.
IMCL 05/22 Test BO 74.34 -0.35 71.25 80 1.6M 4M 68.55
Buy Not Issued. Tapped 75.65 at the high, but gave it back showing a tight doji on much lower, below average volume. Needs to continue to have low volume pull back.
INGR 05/18 Rv H&S 25.08 -0.07 26.02 31 226K 600K 24.68
Buy Not Hit. Pull back holding the 18 day MVA on lower, below average volume. The stock has not performed so will drop, but will keep our eye on it.
JAKK 05/17 Test BO 17.78 -0.1 17.54 20.95 191K 398K 17.05
Current. Pull back on much lower, below average volume. Needs to break through resistance at 18.25.
LPNT 05/12 Cup hdl 37.6 +0.36 37.38 43 258K 700K 36.38
Current. Tested the 10 day MVA and rallied on lower, below average volume. Needs to break through resistance here.
MACE 05/26 Test 50 5.61 +0.07 6.39 9 6.6M 4M 5.94
Buy Not Issued. Tested the 10 day MVA and rallied on much lower, but above average volume. Needs to break through resistance at 6.
MCHP 05/05 Test 50 31.65 -0.14 31.21 34.75 2.3M 4M 30.22
Current. Pull back tapping 31.13 at the low and rallied on lower, below average volume. Beginning to make a lateral move.
MIPS 04/21 DB hdl 6.98 +0.05 6.82 8.22 209K 339K 6.55
Current. Tapped 6.72 at the low and rallied showing a tight doji on lower, below average volume. Moving up the 10 day MVA.
MODI 05/25 Rv H&S 30.15 -0.23 30.01 34.65 142K 170K 28.32
Current. Tapped 30.48 at the intraday high, but gave it back showing a tight doji on lower, but still above average volume. Routine pull back
MSSN 04/27 Test BO 5.32 +0.49 4.89 5.92 854K 615K 4.95
Current. Explosive move up the 10 day MVA on excellent volume surge.
MXIM 05/25 Dbl btm 50.97 +0.67 50.25 56 3.8M 7M 47.12
Buy Not Issued. Tapped 50.10 at the low and rallied on lower, below average volume. Looking for a low volume pull back before we would enter the play.
NXTP 05/12 Cup hdl 16.31 +0.21 15.36 18.22 1.8M 3M 15.02
Current. Continue with uptrend pattern on lower, below average volume.
NXTP 05/06 Cup 16.31 +0.21 15.22 18.12 1.8M 3M 15.02
Current.
OCLR 05/27 FlyPlat 33.41 -0.26 34.42 40 144K 160K 32.32
Buy Not Hit.
OCLR 05/04 Cup 33.41 -0.26 30.22 34.65 144K 160K 32.48
Current. Tapped 33.75 at the intraday high, but gave it back showing a tight doji on the 10 day MVA on much lower, below average volume. Still in good shape.
PLT 05/20 DB hdl 39.75 +0.09 40.05 46 240K 694K 38.12
Buy Not Issued. Tapped 39.19 at the low and rallied showing a tight doji on low volume. Continue to move up the 10 day MVA.
PLXT 05/24 Test BO 14.91 +0.08 14.85 17.78 111K 366K 13.81
Current. Pull back showing a tight doji on much lower, below average volume. Still in uptrend.
PSYS 05/08 Cup hdl 24.78 +0.31 24.54 28.75 170K 300K 23.55
Current. Tapped 23.85 at the low and rallied showing a doji on below average volume. Needs to break through resistance at 25
RHAT 05/18 Asc Tri 27.33 -0.03 27.32 31.25 2.7M 7M 25.36
Current. Beginning to make a lateral move on lower, below average volume. Routine pull back.
RHB 05/24 Cup hdl 24.98 +0.52 24.33 27.98 108K 212K 22.72
Buy Not Hit. Continue with low volume ascent. Have not entered the play, because the volume was not there.
RIO 05/27 PreSplt 50.7 -0.81 51.88 60 637K 1M 49.22
Buy Not Issued. Pull back tapping 50.40 at the low and rallied on much lower, below average volume. Still in good shape.
RMD 04/13 Cup hdl 50.8 -0.03 47.84 54.55 88K 382K 49.48
Current. Gapped down at the open and rallied on low volume as stock begins to make a lateral move. Needs to break through resistance here. The stock did not make the move we were looing for so will drop, but will keep our eye on it.
SBSE 05/27 Test BO 18.5 -0.2 19.05 22.88 94K 200K 17.72
Buy Not Hit. Gapped up at the open, but then gave it all back testing the 10 day MVA and rallied on much lower, below average volume. Routine pull back after nice run.
SBUX 03/22 Test 50 40.6 +0.58 39 47 4.3M 4.5M 38.82
Current. Continue to move up the 10 day MVA on strong volume Broke through resistance at 40. Made a 52 week high.
SCSC 05/27 Test 50 53.25 +0.15 53.77 61 151K 200K 50.88
Buy Not Hit. Tested the 10 day MVA and rallied showing a doji on lower, but average volume. Still in the pattern.
SNTS 05/24 Cup hdl 14.1 -0.05 13.25 15.98 124K 135K 13.32
Current. Gapped up at the open, but gave it back on rising volume Beginning to make a lateral move.
SSP 05/25 Test 50 106.36 +1.35 104.01 109.85 198K 245K 102.88
Current. Nice move up the 10 day MVA on above average volume.
SWW 05/27 Flat 3.13 -0.02 3.24 4.06 874K 204K 3.01
Buy Not Hit. Was surging on big volume but then reversed to close
basically flat. Dont like the intraday reversals but
will let it turn up if it will.
TWW 05/24 Cup hdl 1.09 +0.15 1.06 1.39 2.7M 468K 0.99
Entered today. Tested the 10 day MVA and rallied for an explosive move on excellent volume surge.
ULGX 05/21 Test BO 14.04 +0.04 11.97 14.16 197K 228K 12.74
Current. Gapped up at the open, but gave some of it back on lower, but average volume. Still in uptrend.
VISG 05/26 Dbl btm 9.81 -0.26 10.54 13 809K 3M 9.78
Buy Not Issued. Gapped down showing a doji just above the 10 day MVA on very low volume. Still in the pattern.
WBSN 05/26 Cup hdl 32.38 +0.39 32.12 38 287K 453K 29.94
Buy Not Issued. Continue with low volume ascent. Have not entered the play, because volume was not there.
WITS 05/13 Asc Tri 14.41 +0.96 14.32 17.25 570K 510K 13.38
Entered today. Bounced off the 10 day MVA for a great move on very strong volume surge.
WOOF 02/23 Cup hdl 43.03 -0.58 31.24 37 380K 296K 41.72
Current. Pull back on rising, but average volume. Still in good shape.
WWCA 05/10 Test BO 27.38 +0.06 26.38 30 839K 2.7M 26.22
Current. Moving up the 10 day MVA on low volume. Beginning to make a lateral move.
ZILA 05/20 Flat 5.09 0 5.08 6.12 259K 285K 4.88
Current. Tapped 4.88 at the low and rallied closing flat on stronger above average volume. Making a lateral move above the 10 day MVA.
Downside Plays
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
$SOX 05/05 Put 488.86 +6.40 443.12 424 0 0 451.22
Current. Continue to rally holding at resistance above the 200 day MVA.
AET 05/19 Put 81.2 +1.86 78.12 74.15 1.4M 1.7M 79.72
Current. Continue to rally on lower, below average volume. Holding below resistance at the 50 day MVA.
BJS 05/18 Put 41.89 +0.89 40.62 38.22 1.3M 2.5M 41.22
Current. Relief bounce on much lower, below average volume. Holding at resistance at the 10 day MVA.
BRL 05/10 Put 43.62 +0.28 43.02 40 389K 1.6M 44.12
Current. Relief bounce on very low volume holding under resistance at the 18 day MVA.
ESST 05/08 Put 11.47 -0.12 11.64 9.88 504K 825K 12.11
Buy Not Issued. Continue to move down the 10 day MVA on rising, but still below average volume. Stock has not performed so will drop
JCI 05/15 Put 53.92 -0.14 52.12 49.45 525K 1.3M 52.72
Current. Continue to move down testing support, but rallied on lower, below average volume.
MCO 05/13 Put 65.39 -0.05 63.15 60.42 360K 804K 64.42
Current. Moving down testing the 10 day MVA, but rallied on very low volume holding at support at the 50 day MVA.
POG 05/13 Put 26.44 +0.23 26.04 23.78 227K 800K 26.06
Current. Relief bounce holding at resistance at the 18 day MVA on very low volume.
SEM 05/23 Put 13.41 -0.05 13.11 11.05 1.2M 2M 14.02
Buy Not Issued. Continue to make a lateral move on low volume.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your IH Alerts Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
|
stock recommendation
stock option
|
