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Begin part 3 of 3
We apolozige for the late delivery as our high speed internet failed this evening.
THE PLAYS
Good movers Tuesday: AVO; DGX; FCE; GPRO; RNT; SIE; YHOO; BRL
In each report we prepare full write-ups for those plays that look ready to move. Those that have made the move or are still setting up are discussed in the continuing play table. The purpose is to focus on those stocks that are set to move.
NEW PLAYS: This section includes plays from all sections other than pre-announcements. Those are contained in the pre-announcement section.
New Pre-Split Plays:
Play Date: 06/01/2004
DVA (Davita--$47.45; +1.03; optionable): Specialized health services. Splits 3:2 on 6-16-04.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dva.html
STATUS: Pre-split. A 12 month run has corrected back the past four weeks, coming back to 45 on the low. Tuesday DVA jumped higher, retaking the 50 day EMA (47.02) on strong, above average volume. It still has to cross the simple 50 day (47.87), but a good start to a pre-split run.
Volume: 759.4K Avg Volume: 459.09K
BUY POINT: $48.05 Volume=625K Target=$53 Stop=$46.89
POSITION: DVA JI - Oct. $45c (75 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/dva.html
Play Date: 06/01/2004
CTSH (Cognizant Technology--$46.13; -0.11; optionable): Business software. Splits 2:1 on 6-18-04.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/ctsh.html
STATUS: Double bottom. CTSH has formed a double bottom over the 200 day SMA (44.51) and has spent the past week moving laterally over the 50 day EMA on low, below average volume. It is setting up the move higher to finish the right side of the base and then break over the 'hump' in the double bottom (49.32). For now it looks as if it is trying to make a move from here, and if it can get some more trade we will start positions.
Volume: 909.592K Avg Volume: 1.066M
BUY POINT: $46.68 Volume=1.2M Target=$52 Stop=$44.38
POSITION: UPU JI - Oct. $45c (61 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ctsh.html
New Post-Split Plays:
Play Date: 06/01/2004
EASI (Engineered Support--$54.64; +2.44; optionable): Aerospace/defense
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/easi.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. This is a shallow cup, almost a flat base, but either way it is solid, having formed along the 50 day EMA (49.97) and jumping off the 200 day SMA (48.03) last week on tremendous volume. After pausing from that move, it was back up again Tuesday on strong trade. Money flow is moving higher ahead of price and we are looking to jump on board as it continues its move.
Volume: 661.14K Avg Volume: 279.772K
BUY POINT: $55.12 Volume=420K Target=$61.48 Stop=$51.26
POSITION: UFE HK - Aug. $55c (52 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/easi.html
New Leader Plays: These are solid stocks in good patterns that may develop into a split play, but they also are just good stocks ready to make good moves.
Play Date: 06/01/2004
LSCP (Laserscope--$30.85; +2.31; optionable): Medical appliances
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/lscp.html
STATUS: 50 day EMA test. After an orderly 6-week pullback from a nice breakout, LSCP has come back to test the 50 day EMA (27.02). It held that level and jumped higher Tuesday on strong volume, starting to follow that strong money flow back up. The combination of 50 day EMA test, strong volume and surging money flow is an excellent combination.
Volume: 629.81K Avg Volume: 507.909K
BUY POINT: $31.12 Volume=600K Target=$37.35 Stop=$28.94
POSITION: LXQ IF - Sept. $30c (60 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/lscp.html
Continuing Leader Plays: May turn into a split, but a solid stock ready to move.
Play Date: 05/29/2004
ARTC (Arthrocare--$24.93; +0.45; optionable): Medical appliances
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/artc.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Continues to looks solid in the handle to its 11 week base. Edged higher Tuesday, but volume backed off. Money flow continues to fly higher ahead of price. Looking for it to follow the money as it makes the breakout. Solid 5 to 3 accumulation in the base.
Volume: 346.207K Avg Volume: 303.181K
BUY POINT: $25.32 Volume=446K Target=$30 Stop=$23.55
POSITION: ARU IE - Sept. $25c (49 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/artc.html
Play Date: 05/04/2004
OCLR (Ocular Sciences--$33.5; +0.09; optionable): Medical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/o/oclr.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Keeping it on because we don't want to forget about it. Is fading just slightly below the 10 day EMA (33.38) and then bouncing back. Volume was back up Tuesday, and it may have had all of the shakeout it needs in this nice consolidation to test the breakout. Money flow continues to move higher even as the stock moves laterally. Looks ready to resume the move after the breakout from its 16 week base.
Volume: 239.645K Avg Volume: 153.681K
BUY POINT: New: $34.42 (orig. $30.22) Volume=160K Target=New positions: $40 (orig. positions $34.65) Stop=$32.32
POSITION: QLO JG - Oct. $35c (51 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/oclr.html
Play Date: 05/20/2004
PLT (Plantronics--$40.61; +0.86; optionable): Telecom products (headsets)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/plt.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Volume was up though it could have been better as PLT moved through the buy point. We were tempted to move in but held back. If it continues the move Wednesday we will look at opening the position. Great 18 week base showing excellent 5 to 2 accumulation (5 up price weeks on rising volume to 2 down price weeks on rising volume) and surging money flow.
Volume: 480.9K Avg Volume: 430.454K
BUY POINT: New: $40.88 (orig. $39.05) Volume=694K Target=$45 Stop=$36.88
POSITION: PLT HH - Aug. $40c (38 delta) or PLT HG - Aug. $35c (79 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/plt.html
Play Date: 05/26/2004
VISG (Visage Technology--$10.18; +0.37; optionable): Business software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/v/visg.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Continues to edge laterally over the 10 day EMA (9.66) on very low, below average volume as it forms the handle to its 7 week base. Surging money flow and a low volume test are the keys to this base. Looking for a strong volume breakout to enter.
Volume: 959.271K Avg Volume: 2.433M
BUY POINT: $10.54 Volume=3M Target=$13 Stop=$9.78
POSITION: TUM JB - Oct. $10c (61 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/visg.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
Current Pre-Announcement Plays: In each report we look at the candidates that are in the best patterns ahead of their potential announcements. This focus on leaders in good patterns allows us to make good money even if companies do not announce the split, something that they are still gun-shy of even after the market has made a good recovery as well as the economy. The key with splits now is in the pattern; yes there is a positive move on the announcement, but stocks in this market need to have a good pattern of accumulation to really benefit from a split announcement.
APOL: Forecast 6-12-04 before the open.
CECO: Forecast 7-20-04.
CHS: Looking for an announcement in mid-June in conjunction with a board meeting.
CRL: No announcement 4-28-04. Finally starting its move off of the 50 day EMA.
CWTR: Forecast 6-12-04 with its shareholder meeting.
DGX: Forecast 7-22-04 before the open.
ESRX: No split announced 5-26-04 with its shareholder meeting, but still holding up very well\ over the 10 day EMA.
FLIR: Forecast 7-21-04
GD: Forecast 6-3-04
HUG: Researching next date. Big surge off the 50 day EMA.
IDXX: Forecast 7-22-04.
ITW: Forecast 7-20-04
LXK: Forecast 7-22-04.
POOL: Forecast 7-22-04
QCOM: Forecast 7-22-04
RNT: Forecast 7-28-04.
STJ: Forecast 7-22-04 before the open.
TRBS: Forecast 7-15-04
UOPX: Forecast 6-24-04 before the open.
URBN: Forecast 6-1-04 at its shareholder meeting. Got the split after the close!
WFMI: Forecast 7-28-94.
XRAY: Researching the next date. Blasting higher off the 18 day EMA.
ZBRA: Forecast 6-3-04 at annual shareholder meeting. The date approaches and it is making a nice, easy 10 day EMA test.
ZMH: Forecast 7-21-04.
Full Write-ups: We do not cover all candidates in full in each report, but focus on those ready to make a move or are right at their forecast announcement date. This way we are focused on those stocks ready to make moves.
Continuing Pre-Announcement Plays:
Play Date: 05/17/2004
GD (General Dynamics--$95.63; 0; optionable): Aerospace/defense. Forecast to announce a split on 6-3-04 in conjunction with a board meeting or on 7-21-04 in conjunction with earnings.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for 1 split on 3-4-98 in conjunction with a board meeting at a stock price of $85. The annual shareholder meeting was on 5-5-04 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gd.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Moving laterally on lower and lower below average volume as it holds the recent bump higher. It has yet to make the breakaway move, but with money flow moving higher ahead of price coupled with the nice 16 week pattern, we are looking for a breakout soon.
Volume: 509.9K Avg Volume: 850.181K
BUY POINT: $95.74 Volume=1.2M Target=$108 Stop=$91.95
POSITION: GD KS - Nov. $95c (53 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/gd.html
Play Date: 04/17/2004
QCOM (Qualcom--$68.05; +0.98; optionable): Telecom equipment. Forecast to announce a split July 22 in conjunction with earnings. Earnings date has not been confirmed by the company.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 4 for 1 split on 11-22-99 at a stock price of $224.
Also announced a 2 for1 split on 4-14-99 at a stock price of $150. Prior to that announced a 2 for 1 split on 2-10-94 at a stock price of $47. The annual shareholder meeting was on 3-2-04 at which time no additional shares were authorized, but company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/q/qcom.html
STATUS: 50 day EMA test. Volume was not stellar, but the move was solid as QCOM bounced up and out of the lateral move of the past week. Still looks solid in this short 8 week cup w/handle pattern that has formed showing solid 2 to 0 accumulation. Still a buy on a further above average volume move.
Volume: 8.116M Avg Volume: 9.058M
BUY POINT: New: $68.22 (orig. $66.35) Volume=14M Target=$79 Stop=$64.05
POSITION: AAO GM - July $65c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/qcom.html
Play Date: 05/29/2004
STJ (St. Jude Medical--$76; -0.26; optionable): Medical appliances. Forecast to announce 7-22-04 before the open.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2:1 split in April 2002 at a price of $75.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/stj.html
STATUS: Ascending triangle. Eased back on very low volume, holding over the 10 day EMA (75.11) and showing a tight doji. Making one last pullback to test near support and make a higher low. That should give it the launch pad to make its move for the breakout. Accumulation in the pattern is a strong 3 to 1, showing money is moving into the stock as it sets up for the next move.
Volume: 789.4K Avg Volume: 1.461M
BUY POINT: $77.32 Volume=2.2M Target=$89 Stop=$74.08
POSITION: STJ JP - Oct. $75c (61 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/stj.html
PRE-SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 05/29/2004
NOC (Northrop Grumman--$103.35; +0.22; optionable): Aerospace/defense. Splits 2:1 on 6-22-04
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/noc.html
STATUS: Cup. Fell back early with the rest of the market but managed a rebound to close positive on rising, average volume. Still in the nice 14 week cup base using the 50 day EMA (99.94) as support. Positive 3 to 2 accumulation (3 up price weeks on rising volume to 2 down price weeks on rising volume) in the base and money flow running higher ahead of price. Still may move laterally for another session or two, but when it goes, it could be fast.
Volume: 746.2K Avg Volume: 797.409K
BUY POINT: $104.12 Volume=1M Target=$112.25 Stop=$101.32
POSITION: NOC HA - Aug. $105c (42 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/noc.html
POST SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 05/29/2004
NSM (National Semiconductor--$21.94; +0.27; optionable): Semiconductors
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nsm.html
STATUS: Double bottom. Moving up off the 50 day SMA (21.62) but not getting much volume in its 7 week base. Accumulation is solid already at 3 to 1. It is making the breakout over the middle of the base, but we need to see more trade before we enter.
Volume: 7.337M Avg Volume: 9.49M
BUY POINT: $22.12 Volume=11M Target=$26 Stop=$20.68
POSITION: NSM KD - Nov. $20c (71 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/nsm.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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