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Begin part 2 of 2
Support and Resistance
NASDAQ: Closed at 1978.62
Resistance: 1990 to 2000, the top of the late 2003 base. 2050 represents some prior price points and has stopped NASDAQ the last time it tried that level. Breakout from the pattern is 2080. 2089 is the February closing high. 2112 is the early January high.
Support: The 50 day SMA (1977) and the 50 day EMA (1968). The 200 day SMA (1961). 1900 to 1890. The April lows (1880, 1878). 1850 below that. Some price tops at 1777, 1750.
S&P 500: Closed at 1122.50
Resistance: 1125 stalled the last bounce attempt. The April and January highs (1150 to 1155). Next is 1159 (February highs) and 1160 to 1175 the highs in that double top that spanned late 2001, early 2002.
Support: The 50 day SMA (1118) is trying to hold. The 50 day EMA (1115) held Friday. The 18 day EMA (1112). 1106 is a May 2002 top and represents some early 2001 lows. 1096 to 1100. The 200 day SMA (1087). April lows (1079, 1076). 1075 to 1070 from the December consolidation. 1058 - 1060 from November tops.
Dow: Closed at 10,242.82
Resistance: p rice resistance at 10,250. The 50 day SMA (10,257). 10,570 is the April high. Price consolidation at 10,600 level. 10,747 is the February high.
Support: The 18 day EMA (10,148). The 200 day SMA (10,081). March low (10,007). 9900-9850.
Economic Calendar
These are consensus expectations. Our expectations will vary and are discussed in the 'Economy' section.
6-07-04
Consumer credit, April (3:00): $5.5B expected, $5.7B March.
6-09-04
Wholesale inventories, April (10:00): 0.5% expected, 0.6% March.
6-10-04
Initial jobless claims (8:30): 335K expected, 339K prior.
Treasury budget, May (2:00): -$67.5B expected, -$88.9B April.
6-11-04
Trade balance, April (8:30): -$44.9B expected, -$46.0B March.
PPI, May (8:30): 0.6% expected, 0.7% April.
Core PPI (8:30): 0.2% expected, 0.2% April.
Michigan sentiment, preliminary for June (9:45): 91.5 Expected, 90.2 May.
THE PLAYS
Thursday night play results:
ANIK: Started back up on solid volume after the test.
IRIS: Eased back on some low trade, setting up for the continued move.
MEOH: Stretched higher but faded as the volume did not start the move with it.
New plays for Monday:
Upside:
Play Date: 06/05/2004
APCS (Alamosa Holdings--$7.40; +0.15; optionable): Telecom wireless communications
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/apcs.html
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. APCS is preparing for the breakout from its latest base, a 7 week pattern that formed over the 50 day EMA (6.69). Accumulation in the base is an excellent 5 to 0 (5 up price weeks on rising volume to 0 down price weeks on rising volume), showing that money is still moving into the stock even as it bases. Volume has started to surge the past three sessions as money flow, already ahead of price, starts turning higher. Looks primed for the next breakout. An 'A' rated stock in terms of earnings and sales, and a great technical pattern to boot.
Volume: 2.247M Avg Volume: 1.65M
BUY POINT: $7.62 Volume=2.5M Target=$9.15 Stop=$7.09
POSITION: CUT IU - Sept. $7.50c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/apcs.html
Play Date: 06/05/2004
DAB (Dave & Busters--$18.76; +0.21; optionable): Entertainment restaurants
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dab.html
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. DAB has made us money in the past, and it looks ready to do so now. It blasted higher in early April from a very tight 6-week flat base. It has now formed the current 8 week base over the 50 day EMA (17.36), a key support level and good to see in a basing stock. Accumulation is a solid 2 to 0 in the pattern, and volume has trailed off significantly the past week as it moves through the right shoulder that looks more like a handle. Solid all around with money flow moving higher ahead of price. Looks ready to move again.
Volume: 46.9K Avg Volume: 82.077K
BUY POINT: $19.04 Volume=123K Target=$22.85 Stop=$17.98
POSITION: DAB KW - Nov. $17.50c (75 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/dab.html
Play Date: 06/05/2004
NCOG (NCO Group--$24.62; -0.03; optionable): Business management services: accounts receivable management
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/ncog.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. NCOG is forming a handle to its 30 week base, easing back to end last week on very low, below average volume, still holding over the 10 day EMA (24.43) as it does. The base has formed over the 50 day EMA (23.50), a key support level that stronger stocks tend to hold as they pull back and regroup in their bases. Accumulation in the pattern is an excellent 11 to 3. Money flow is surging higher ahead of price. A leading stock with strong 'A' rated earnings and sales. We expect the stock to work laterally and lower for a few more days, making a full test of the 10 day and perhaps even the 18 day EMA (24.07) before it is ready to make the breakout. Very solid pattern and we will just be patient and let it make the move.
Volume: 86.42K Avg Volume: 165.604K
BUY POINT: $25.48 Volume=248K Target=$30 Stop=$24.24
POSITION: GCQ IE - Sept. $25c (49 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/ncog.html
SUBSCRIBER PORTFOLIO: These are stocks subscribers suggest by vote that we put in a portfolio to track and move into the stocks if they perform well. If you have any suggestions for additions or deletions, email us. We don't cover them all each report, just when something interesting is developing.
ALDN, BRCM, CECO, COH, DNA, EBAY, GTRC, LPNT, TGT
ALDN: Nice lateral move, holding the breakout gains from 7 sessions back. Volume is very low as it works laterally, showing very few sellers. May take 2 to 3 more days of lateral movement before making the next move.
CECO: Has come back to test the 18 day EMA on low volume. Looking for a high volume bounce from here as the next entry point.
GTRC: Nice, orderly test of the 10 day EMA after the nice break higher. When it starts back up, that is the next entry point.
TGT: Quietly moving up to the March highs. Expecting it to form a handle here below 46 and then provide the breakout toward the end of the week or the first part of the next week.
SUBSCRIBER WATCHLIST
We continually receive ideas for potential plays from subscribers. Many times they are already on our watchlists, other times not. We always take a look and sometimes find a gem or two, or more. We don't necessarily endorse these, but want to provide a forum for subscribers with ideas that may appeal to other subscribers. We may just put on the ticker or we might describe our thoughts as to why or why not we think it is a buy or sell. This is a way we can all learn a bit more and maybe find a few more candidates to make us some good money.
Upside:
IMMU: Broke over the 200 day SMA 8 sessions back and has moved laterally since. The 10 day EMA has risen to meet it, and it showed a tight doji Friday. That 10 day EMA rise often triggers the next move higher. It has cleared some resistance and has some room up to 8.
CTEC: Volume has surged well above average last week as it looks ready to try a breakout from a short double bottom with handle base.
Downside:
ASPT: Topped in January and after breaking below the 50 day EMA in March it has been bouncing down from that resistance point. The 50 day EMA just cut through the 200 day SMA just as the stock has made a low volume rally back up to that point. Looks ready to turn back down and continue the downtrend.
CONTINUING PLAYS
* * SPREADSHEET DOWNLOAD * * *
The following link is to a spreadsheet download of the continuing play table. It will allow subscribers to sort the data for your personal investment use. This is a service to our subscribers only, and no other use of the information is authorized. Simply click on the link, enter your username and password, and download the spreadsheet!
http://investmenthouse.com/daily/table.php
You will need your password. If you need help click on this link and our automated system will email it to you immediately once you fill in your email address:
http://www.investmenthouse.com/rescue/rescue.php3
LEGEND FOR CONTINUING PLAY TABLE
DATE: date play first appeared on report.
PLAY: Denotes the type of pattern or play.
Upside play types: Asc Tri=Ascending triangle; BO=Breakout; Cup=Cup base; Cup hdl=Cup w/handle; DB hdl=Double bottom w/handle; Dbl btm=Double bottom; Flat=Flat base; FlyPlat=Flying Plateau; Pennant=Pennant; Rv H&S=Reverse head & shoulders; Saucer=Saucer base; Test 18=Testing 18 day MVA; Test 50=Testing 50 day MVA; Test BO=Testing the breakout (could be 10 day MVA test, etc.)
Downside play types: CCall=Covered Call; Dsc Tri=Descending triangle; Dbl Top=Double top; H&S=Head & shoulders; Put (generic downside);
PIVOT=Buy point
Tgt=Target stock price for the play. Applies to stock and options.
Vol=Volume for the most recent session.
TgtV=Target volume to enter the play.
Stop=Stop advisory point. This is advisory and we may or may not exit a play if it hits this level depending upon market conditions.
PLAY STATUS: Buy not hit (stock has not hit buy point); Buy not issued (stock has hit buy point but did not enter due to weak volume, poor intraday action, poor market action); Current (ongoing play already entered); Entered today (entered the play that session); Exited (closed the position); Target hit (play hit initial target; will note if took all or partial gain or let run further); Trailing stop (exited using a trailing stop loss).
Upside Plays
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
ABM 05/17 Flat 19 +0.12 18.99 21.85 75K 185K 18.71
Current. Tapped 18.79 at the intraday low and rallied holding above the 10 day MVA on lower, below average volume. Still in the pattern.
AKAM 05/26 DB hdl 15.56 0 15.29 18 1.7M 4.8M 14.22
Current. Gapped up at the open, but gave it back tapping 15.37 at the low and rallied closing flat on low volume. Beginning to make a lateral move.
ANF 06/03 Cup hdl 36.5 -0.59 37.12 42.75 1.5M 2.7M 35.28
Current. Pull back on lower, below average volume. Still in uptrend pattern.
ANIK 06/03 Test BO 13.91 +0.73 13.79 16.82 153K 155K 12.82
Entered today. Tested the 10 day MVA and rallied for a great move on lower, but still above average volume.
ATRM 05/08 Test BO 8.94 +0.48 8.82 10.55 213K 177K 8.22
Current. Tested the 18 day MVA and rallied for a nice gain showing a doji above the 10 day MVA on higher, but average volume. Moving up on rising volume after testing the break out.
AXCA 06/01 Cup hdl 19.85 +0.06 20.06 23.42 410K 346K 19.05
Buy Not Issued. Continue to move up the 10 day MVA showing a tight doji on stronger above average volume. Doji may indicate a change in pattern.
BEIQ 05/08 Cup 26.76 +0.55 24.12 28 226K 124K 25.88
Current. Tested the 10 day MVA and rallied showing a tight doji on lower, but still above average volume. Moving up on lower volume after testing the break out.
BEV 05/17 DB hdl 8.51 +0.21 8.52 10.25 1.7M 2.5M 7.92
Buy Not Issued. Bounced off the 10 day MVA for a nice move on stronger above average volume. Came off the day's high of 8.64. Volume needs to increase before we can enter the play.
BID 05/29 Cup hdl 15.56 +0.06 15.39 18.48 298K 465K 14.81
Current. Gapped up at the open showing a doji on lower, below average volume. continue with uptrend pattern. Came off the day's high of 15.98
BLUD 05/18 Test BO 31.02 +0.37 27.49 32 312K 500K 28.96
Current. Still in uptrend.
BRCM 05/24 Flat 41.64 +0.52 41.44 47.42 6.5M 13M 40.44
Current. Gapped up at the open, but gave some of it back testing the 10 day MVA and rallied on rising, but still below average volume.
CEN 05/25 Cup hdl 22.83 +0.28 22.95 26.55 343K 1.1M 21.96
Buy Not Issued. Tested the 10 day MVA and rallied on low volume. Made a 52 week high.
CNTY 05/22 Test BO 5.6 -0.4 5.52 6.82 474K 145K 5.41
Current. Tapped 6.30 at the high, but gave it all back testing the 10 day MVA and rallied holding at support on stronger above average volume. May test back to 5.50.
CYBS 05/13 Test BO 8.45 +0.07 8.35 9.95 257K 645K 8.07
Current. Tested the 8.26 at the low and rallied showing a doji on the 10 day MVA on low volume. Still in good shape.
EBAY 03/06 Flat 88.08 +0.48 71.78 82.25 8.6M 10M 84.12
Current. Tapped 87.29 at the low and rallied showing a doji on stronger, but average volume. Still in uptrend pattern.
EBAY 12/12 Test 18 88.08 +0.48 34.72 46 8.6M 12M 84.12
Current.
EBAY 10/15 Test 50 88.08 +0.48 31.22 46 8.6M 12M 84.12
Current.
EEFT 05/10 Asc Tri 22.73 +0.12 20.67 24.75 146K 425K 21.95
Current. Gapped up at the open, but gave some of it back testing the 10 day MVA and rallied on lower, below average volume. Moving up after routine pull back.
EGLS 05/18 Dbl btm 5.16 0 5.09 6.18 93K 212K 4.91
Current. Dbl btm 5.16 0 5.09 6.18 93K 212K 4.91
Current. Gapped up at the open, but gave it back testing the 10 day MVA and rallied on low, but average volume. Beginning to make a lateral move just above the 10 day MVA.
ELN 05/25 Test 50 23.8 +0.7 23.02 27 4M 10M 22.48
Current. Continue to move up the 10 day MVA on stronger, but still below average volume. Needs to break through resistance at 24.
GLW 05/29 Cup hdl 12.3 +0.31 12.78 15.35 5.4M 12M 11.89
Buy Not Hit. Tapped 12.10 at the low and rallied up the 10 day MVA on lower, below average volume. Still in the pattern.
GNSC 04/28 Dbl btm 4.28 +0.01 4.02 4.98 59K 172K 4.08
Current. Tapped 4.21 at the low and rallied showing a doji on lower, below average volume. Beginning to make a lateral move.
HLEX 05/06 Cup hdl 14.82 -0.15 14.64 17.55 272K 300K 14.68
Current. Continue to pull back holding just above the 18 day MVA on rising, but average volume. Held above support at 14.78.
IRIS 06/03 Test BO 9.02 -0.16 9.25 11.12 156K 200K 8.58
Buy Not Issued. Gapped up at the open, but gave it back on much lower, but still above average volume. Still in uptrend.
KNSY 06/02 Test BO 36 +0.15 35.62 41.12 352K 215K 33.94
Current. Continue to move up the 10 day MVA on lower, but still above average volume.
LPNT 05/12 Cup hdl 37.7 +0.47 37.38 43 331K 700K 36.88
Current. Bounced off the 10 day MVA and rallied on lower, below average volume. Came off the day's high of 38.09. Moving up after testing the break out.
LSCP 06/01 Test 50 31.25 +0.55 32.29 38.55 633K 600K 30.03
Current. Tested the 10 day MVA and rallied showing a doji on lower, but average volume. Came off the day's high of 33.20.
MEOH 06/03 Cup hdl 12.43 +0.16 12.62 15.25 199K 379K 11.94
Buy Not Hit. Tapped 12.21 at the intraday low and rallied on low volume. Moving up after routine pull back. Came off the day's high of 12.63.
NABI 04/05 Asc Tri 16.9 +0.42 16.68 20.25 389K 950K 16.38
Current. Tested the 50 day MVA and rallied for a nice gain holding above the 10 day MVA on rising, but still below average volume.
NAVR 04/09 Flat 13.25 -0.18 7.43 9.12 790K 733K 12.11
Current. Routine pull back on lower, below average volume. Still in uptrend pattern.
NXTP 05/12 Cup hdl 15.95 +0.28 15.36 18.22 1.2M 3M 15.26
Current. Tested the 10 day MVA and rallied on low volume. Moving up after testing the break out.
OLGC 06/02 Dbl btm 8.54 +0.02 9.01 10.88 107K 295K 8.38
Current. Tapped 8.45 at the low and rallied as stock begins to make a lateral move on low volume.
QQQ 06/02 DB hdl 36.19 +0.21 36.72 38 91M 125M 35.55
Buy Not Hit. Tapped 36.62 at the intraday high, but gave it back on lower, below average volume. Still in the pattern.
RHAT 05/18 Asc Tri 28.02 +0.64 27.32 31.25 4.2M 7M 26.38
Current. Tested the 10 day MVA and rallied showing a doji on rising, but average volume. Moving up after testing the break out.
SBSE 05/27 Test BO 17.26 -0.22 19.05 22.88 116K 200K 17.72
Buy Not Hit. Tapped 17.03 at the low and rallied showing a doji on lower, but average volume. The stock has not made the move we were looking for so will drop, but will keep our eye on it.
SBUX 07/30 Cup 41.36 +0.16 30.35 36.75 3.2M 6M 39.58
Current. Continue with uptrend on stronger above average volume.
SBUX 07/01 Cup 41.36 +0.16 26.3 30.94 3.2M 6M 39.58
Current.
SMF 05/20 Cup hdl 13.61 -1.16 14.74 17.55 807K 121K 14.45
Exited. Gapped down at the open and continued to tank on very strong volume surge.
SMRT 05/18 DB hdl 14.85 +0.09 14.98 17.75 207K 337K 14.04
Current. Tapped 14.63 at the low and rallied showing a tight doji on lower, below average volume. Continue to move up the 10 day MVA.
SMTC 05/26 Dbl btm 24.33 +0.53 25.24 29 553K 1.7M 23.47
Current. Tapped 24.70 at the intraday high, but gave it back showind a doji on lower, below average volume. Moving up after testing the breakout.
SNIC 06/01 Cup 22.53 +0.34 23.44 27.45 437K 508K 21.82
Current. Moving up on lower volume after pull back.
SNTS 05/24 Cup hdl 14.5 -0.06 13.25 15.98 304K 135K 13.44
Current. Gapped down at the open tapping 14.15 at the low and rallied holding at resistance. Needs to break through here.
SONE 05/05 Cup hdl 9.98 +0.2 9.72 11.88 303K 625K 9.28
Current. Continue to move up the 10 day MVA on lower, below average volume.
SWW 05/27 Flat 3.13 +0.01 3.31 4.14 157K 204K 3.08
Current. Moving up on average volume. Needs to break through resistance at 3.18.
TGT 08/09 Flat 45.21 -0.15 41.45 50 2.7M 5.7M 44.28
Gapped up at the open, but gave it back on lower, below average volume. Still in uptrend.
TWW 05/24 Cup hdl 0.99 -0.03 1.06 1.39 591K 468K 0.99
Current. Pull back tapping 0.98 at the low and rallied holding just above the 10 day MVA on rising, but average volume. Routine pull back.
ULGX 05/21 Test BO 14.35 -0.33 11.97 14.16 241K 228K 13.62
Current. Gapped down showing a doji on lower, but average volume. Came off the day's high of 14.96. Routine pull back.
USPI 05/03 Cup 39.94 -0.07 39.37 44.78 326K 370K 38.62
Current. Pull back on stronger above average volume. Still in good shape.
VRSN 05/25 DB hdl 17.5 +0.08 18.92 22.65 1.7M 3.9M 17.62
Buy Not Hit. Tested the 50 day MVA and rallied showing a tight doji on much lower, below average volume. Came off the day's high of 17.83. The stock has not performed so will drop.
VTA 06/02 Test 18 6.1 -0.09 6.38 7.54 218K 450K 5.93
Buy Not Issued. Pull back testing the 18 day MVA and rallied holding the 10 day MVA on lower, below average volume. Still in good shape.
VXGNE 04/28 Cup hdl 16.01 -0.07 14.98 17.25 2.3M 1.1M 15.33
Current. Pull back showing a tight doji as stock begins to make a lateral move just above the 10 day MVA on low volume.
VXGNE 04/19 Cup hdl 16.01 -0.07 13.58 16.15 2.3M 1.1M 15.33
Current.
WMB 05/04 Cup hdl 11.7 +0.08 11.08 13.25 2.3M 5.4M 11.38
Current. Tapped 11.58 at the low and rallied showing a tight doji on low volume. Moving up on lower volume after testing the 10 day MVA.
WOOF 02/23 Cup hdl 44.06 +0.17 31.24 37 206K 296K 42.44
Current. Continue to move up the 10 day MVA on lower, below average volume.
ZEUS 05/27 DB hdl 13.96 +0.36 14.17 17.18 190K 253K 13.18
Current. Tapped 13.22 at the low and rallied as stock moves up the 10 day MVA on stronger, but average volume. Moving up on rising volume after testing the break out.
Downside Plays
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
EMIS 05/10 Put 4.91 -0.09 4.98 4 43K 145K 5.21
Current. Continue to move down showing a tight doji on lower, below average volume.
SEM 05/23 Put 13.07 +0.07 13.11 11.05 1.2M 2M 14.02
Buy Not Issued. showing a doji on low volume. making a lateral move.
VSH 05/08 Put 18.7 +0.51 18.45 16.55 2.4M 2.6M 18.62
Current. Rallied showing a tight doji below resistance at 18.85 on slightly higher, above average volume.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and The Daily Staff
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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