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us stock market, stock split
Begin part 2 of 3
Support and Resistance
NASDAQ: Closed at 1978.62
Resistance: 1990 to 2000, the top of the late 2003 base. 2050 represents some prior price points and has stopped NASDAQ the last time it tried that level. Breakout from the pattern is 2080. 2089 is the February closing high. 2112 is the early January high.
Support: The 50 day SMA (1977) and the 50 day EMA (1968). The 200 day SMA (1961). 1900 to 1890. The April lows (1880, 1878). 1850 below that. Some price tops at 1777, 1750.
S&P 500: Closed at 1122.50
Resistance: 1125 stalled the last bounce attempt. The April and January highs (1150 to 1155). Next is 1159 (February highs) and 1160 to 1175 the highs in that double top that spanned late 2001, early 2002.
Support: The 50 day SMA (1118) is trying to hold. The 50 day EMA (1115) held Friday. The 18 day EMA (1112). 1106 is a May 2002 top and represents some early 2001 lows. 1096 to 1100. The 200 day SMA (1087). April lows (1079, 1076). 1075 to 1070 from the December consolidation. 1058 - 1060 from November tops.
Dow: Closed at 10,242.82
Resistance: p rice resistance at 10,250. The 50 day SMA (10,257). 10,570 is the April high. Price consolidation at 10,600 level. 10,747 is the February high.
Support: The 18 day EMA (10,148). The 200 day SMA (10,081). March low (10,007). 9900-9850.
Economic Calendar
These are consensus expectations. Our expectations will vary and are discussed in the 'Economy' section.
6-07-04
Consumer credit, April (3:00): $5.5B expected, $5.7B March.
6-09-04
Wholesale inventories, April (10:00): 0.5% expected, 0.6% March.
6-10-04
Initial jobless claims (8:30): 335K expected, 339K prior.
Treasury budget, May (2:00): -$67.5B expected, -$88.9B April.
6-11-04
Trade balance, April (8:30): -$44.9B expected, -$46.0B March.
PPI, May (8:30): 0.6% expected, 0.7% April.
Core PPI (8:30): 0.2% expected, 0.2% April.
Michigan sentiment, preliminary for June (9:45): 91.5 Expected, 90.2 May.
THE PLAYS
Thursday night play results:
CWTR: Gapped higher but could not hold the gains. Not a good session to try a breakout, but still looks ready.
IRIS: Eased back on some low trade, setting up for the continued move.
NMGA: Gapped higher as did many stocks then gave the move back on lower volume. Still set to make the rebound toward 58.
POSS: Volume started higher as POSS showed a nice hammer doji at the 10 day EMA.
New Plays:
Upside:
Play Date: 06/05/2004
ALDN (Aladdin Knowledge System--$26.50; +0.08; no options): Security software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/aldn.html
STATUS: Breakout test. ALDN is a market leader, and it is moving laterally close to an all-time high as it tests the breakout from a 7 week double bottom. Accumulation in that short base is a strong 3 to 0 (3 up price weeks on rising volume to 0 down price weeks on rising volume), showing money has moved into the stock during the basing process. Strong money flow and relative strength looks ready to break higher with the stock. The 10 day EMA (25.71) is rising toward the stock as it moves laterally on low volume. That can often set off the next move that continues the breakout.
Volume: 218.729K Avg Volume: 413.404K
BUY POINT: $27.82 Volume=500K Target=$33.39 Stop=$25.87
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/aldn.html
Play Date: 06/05/2004
APCS (Alamosa Holdings--$7.40; +0.15; optionable): Telecom wireless communications
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/apcs.html
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. APCS is preparing for the breakout from its latest base, a 7 week pattern that formed over the 50 day EMA (6.69). Accumulation in the base is an excellent 5 to 0 (5 up price weeks on rising volume to 0 down price weeks on rising volume), showing that money is still moving into the stock even as it bases. Volume has started to surge the past three sessions as money flow, already ahead of price, starts turning higher. Looks primed for the next breakout. An 'A' rated stock in terms of earnings and sales, and a great technical pattern to boot.
Volume: 2.247M Avg Volume: 1.65M
BUY POINT: $7.62 Volume=2.5M Target=$9.15 Stop=$7.09
POSITION: CUT IU - Sept. $7.50c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/apcs.html
Play Date: 06/05/2004
ATVI (Activision--$16.13; +0.39; optionable): Multimedia & graphics software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/atvi.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. ATVI is a market leader, coming off a split in mid-March. Unlike many stocks, ATVI rallied after its split as investors moved in to get a leader at a lower price. After rallying to 17 on that move it has slipped into the current 8 week base, the bottoms of which held support at 14, a price support level from February and March and the up trendline from the September through December 2003 lows. It is moving laterally over the 10 day EMA (15.70) on lower, below average volume as it forms the handle. This action shakes out the last sellers and clears the way for the breakout. Accumulation in the base is 2 to 1 with money flow moving up ahead of the stock. Another 'A' rated stock in terms of earnings and sales with a strong technical pattern. Volume was up Friday as ATVI started stirring again. Just being patient and waiting for the strong volume move through the buy point.
Volume: 1.889M Avg Volume: 2.019M
BUY POINT: $16.54 Volume=3M Target=$19.85 Stop=$15.38
POSITION: AQV KC - Nov. $15c (71 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/atvi.html
Play Date: 06/05/2004
DAB (Dave & Busters--$18.76; +0.21; optionable): Entertainment restaurants
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dab.html
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. DAB has made us money in the past, and it looks ready to do so now. It blasted higher in early April from a very tight 6-week flat base. It has now formed the current 8 week base over the 50 day EMA (17.36), a key support level and good to see in a basing stock. Accumulation is a solid 2 to 0 in the pattern, and volume has trailed off significantly the past week as it moves through the right shoulder that looks more like a handle. Solid all around with money flow moving higher ahead of price. Looks ready to move again.
Volume: 46.9K Avg Volume: 82.077K
BUY POINT: $19.04 Volume=123K Target=$22.85 Stop=$17.98
POSITION: DAB KW - Nov. $17.50c (75 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/dab.html
Play Date: 06/05/2004
VRNT (Verint Systems--$31.04; +0.79; optionable): Security and business intelligence software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/v/vrnt.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. VRNT was a new issue in 2002, and it is forming this base, getting ready to breakout to an all-time high after a nice breakout from 9 month cup with handle base in March. Solid 2 to 1 accumulation in the 8 week pattern along with solid money flow. The base formed over the 50 day EMA (28.81), a sign of institutional support for the stock as it bases. Volume jumped back above average Friday as VRNT started stirring in its handle. Looks ready for the breakout over the next few sessions. And yet another 'A' rated stock in terms of earnings and sales as well as a strong pattern.
Volume: 179.495K Avg Volume: 162.99K
BUY POINT: $31.64 Volume=244K Target=$37.64 Stop=$29.43
POSITION: JOQ KE - Nov. $30c (62 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/vrnt.html
End part 2 of 3
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us stock market
stock split
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