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us stock market, stock trading
Begin part 2 of 3
Support and Resistance
NASDAQ: Closed at 1978.62
Resistance: 1990 to 2000, the top of the late 2003 base. 2050 represents some prior price points and has stopped NASDAQ the last time it tried that level. Breakout from the pattern is 2080. 2089 is the February closing high. 2112 is the early January high.
Support: The 50 day SMA (1977) and the 50 day EMA (1968). The 200 day SMA (1961). 1900 to 1890. The April lows (1880, 1878). 1850 below that. Some price tops at 1777, 1750.
S&P 500: Closed at 1122.50
Resistance: 1125 stalled the last bounce attempt. The April and January highs (1150 to 1155). Next is 1159 (February highs) and 1160 to 1175 the highs in that double top that spanned late 2001, early 2002.
Support: The 50 day SMA (1118) is trying to hold. The 50 day EMA (1115) held Friday. The 18 day EMA (1112). 1106 is a May 2002 top and represents some early 2001 lows. 1096 to 1100. The 200 day SMA (1087). April lows (1079, 1076). 1075 to 1070 from the December consolidation. 1058 - 1060 from November tops.
Dow: Closed at 10,242.82
Resistance: p rice resistance at 10,250. The 50 day SMA (10,257). 10,570 is the April high. Price consolidation at 10,600 level. 10,747 is the February high.
Support: The 18 day EMA (10,148). The 200 day SMA (10,081). March low (10,007). 9900-9850.
Economic Calendar
These are consensus expectations. Our expectations will vary and are discussed in the 'Economy' section.
6-07-04
Consumer credit, April (3:00): $5.5B expected, $5.7B March.
6-09-04
Wholesale inventories, April (10:00): 0.5% expected, 0.6% March.
6-10-04
Initial jobless claims (8:30): 335K expected, 339K prior.
Treasury budget, May (2:00): -$67.5B expected, -$88.9B April.
6-11-04
Trade balance, April (8:30): -$44.9B expected, -$46.0B March.
PPI, May (8:30): 0.6% expected, 0.7% April.
Core PPI (8:30): 0.2% expected, 0.2% April.
Michigan sentiment, preliminary for June (9:45): 91.5 Expected, 90.2 May.
THE PLAYS
Good movers Friday: FLIR; GPRO; SHFL; STN
In each report we prepare full write-ups for those plays that look ready to move. Those that have made the move or are still setting up are discussed in the continuing play table. The purpose is to focus on those stocks that are set to move.
NEW PLAYS: This section includes plays from all sections other than pre-announcements. Those are contained in the pre-announcement section.
New Post-Split Plays:
Play Date: 06/05/2004
ATVI (Activision--$16.13; +0.39; optionable): Multimedia & graphics software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/atvi.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. ATVI is a market leader, coming off a split in mid-March. Unlike many stocks, ATVI rallied after its split as investors moved in to get a leader at a lower price. After rallying to 17 on that move it has slipped into the current 8 week base, the bottoms of which held support at 14, a price support level from February and March and the up trendline from the September through December 2003 lows. It is moving laterally over the 10 day EMA (15.70) on lower, below average volume as it forms the handle. This action shakes out the last sellers and clears the way for the breakout. Accumulation in the base is 2 to 1 with money flow moving up ahead of the stock. An 'A' rated stock in terms of earnings and sales with a strong technical pattern. Volume was up Friday as ATVI started stirring again. Just being patient and waiting for the strong volume move through the buy point.
Volume: 1.889M Avg Volume: 2.019M
BUY POINT: $16.54 Volume=3M Target=$19.85 Stop=$15.38
POSITION: AQV KC - Nov. $15c (71 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/atvi.html
Play Date: 06/05/2004
MSA (Mine Safety Appliance--$29.69; +0.14; no options): Respiratory protective equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/msa.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. After splitting in January, MSA has formed the current 8 week base over the 50 day EMA (28.12), an important support level for strong stocks. It held and bounced off the 50 day two weeks back before slipping into the current 7 session handle forming on lower volume. That shows few sellers as the last weak holders are frustrated out of the stock. Excellent 3 to 0 accumulation in the base (3 up price weeks on rising volume to 0 down price weeks on rising volume) showing money continues to move into the stock as it bases. This is another 'A' rated stock regarding earnings and sales and is setting up well for the next breakout to send it to an all-time high.
Volume: 44K Avg Volume: 86.546K
BUY POINT: $31.25 Volume=132K Target=$37.45 Stop=$29.06
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/msa.html
New Leader Plays: These are solid stocks in good patterns that may develop into a split play, but they also are just good stocks ready to make good moves.
Play Date: 06/05/2004
ALDN (Aladdin Knowledge System--$26.50; +0.08; no options): Security software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/aldn.html
STATUS: Breakout test. ALDN is a market leader, and it is moving laterally close to an all-time high as it tests the breakout from a 7 week double bottom. Accumulation in that short base is a strong 3 to 0 (3 up price weeks on rising volume to 0 down price weeks on rising volume), showing money has moved into the stock during the basing process. Strong money flow and relative strength looks ready to break higher with the stock. The 10 day EMA (25.71) is rising toward the stock as it moves laterally on low volume. That can often set off the next move that continues the breakout.
Volume: 218.729K Avg Volume: 413.404K
BUY POINT: $27.82 Volume=500K Target=$33.39 Stop=$25.87
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/aldn.html
Continuing Leader Plays: Many of these leaders are still poised on the brink of a breakout.
Play Date: 05/29/2004
ARTC (Arthrocare--$24.85; +0.52; optionable): Medical appliances
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/artc.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. ARTC continues to go about its own business, moving laterally over the 10 day EMA (24.09) in its 2 week handle to its 12 week base. Money flow continues to surge ahead of price in this lateral move, and stocks tend to follow strong money flow. Solid 5 to 2 accumulation in the base to go along with the money flow. Just a good looking stock ready to make the move.
Volume: 175.662K Avg Volume: 312.156K
BUY POINT: $25.32 Volume=446K Target=$30 Stop=$23.55
POSITION: ARU IE - Sept. $25c (49 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/artc.html
Play Date: 05/23/2004
NMSS (Natural Microsystems--$8.49; +0.01; optionable): Telecom processing systems
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nmss.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Continues to edge laterally on below average volume, holding over the 18 day EMA (8.38) as it continues to form the handle to the 19 week base. Strong 5 to 1 accumulation is setting a very good base for a breakout form the 19 week base. Solid money flow to boot. It looks ready for the breakout.
Volume: 327.872K Avg Volume: 440.596K
BUY POINT: $8.95 Volume=624K Target=$10.68 Stop=$8.32
POSITION: QNM IU - Sept. $7.50c (68 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/nmss.html
Play Date: 05/20/2004
PLT (Plantronics--$39.66; +0.39; optionable): Telecom products (headsets)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/plt.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Tantalizing us with a breakout as it continues to work on the handle to its 19 week base sporting solid 5 to 2 accumulation (5 up price weeks on rising volume to 2 down price weeks on rising volume) and surging money flow. Toward the end of the week it sold down to the 18 day EMA (38.91), and as we noted Thursday, that looks like a shakeout. Tried to jump Friday, but no volume. Just looking for that breakout move.
Volume: 296.9K Avg Volume: 439.617K
BUY POINT: New: $40.88 (orig. $39.05) Volume=694K Target=$45 Stop=$36.88
POSITION: PLT HH - Aug. $40c (38 delta) or PLT HG - Aug. $35c (79 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/plt.html
Play Date: 06/03/2004
POSS (Possis Medical--$28.15; +0.15; optionable): Medical appliances
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/poss.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Nice action, showing a hammer doji at the 10 day EMA Friday on rising though still below average volume. A really nice 9 week base that formed at the 50 day EMA (26.94), a good sign of institutional support along with solid 3 to 1 accumulation (3 up price weeks on rising volume to 1 down price week on rising volume). Price/volume action is very solid in the base, drying up at the bottom of the base, surging as it moved up the right side, and then backing off to a trickle as it moves laterally and slightly lower to form the handle. Volume edged higher Friday as it showed that hammer doji at the 10 day EMA. Preparing for the breakout.
Volume: 116.154K Avg Volume: 193.083K
BUY POINT: $29.58 Volume=288K Target=$34 Stop=$27.51
POSITION: UPQ JF - Oct. $30c (40 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/poss.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
Current Pre-Announcement Plays: In each report we look at the candidates that are in the best patterns ahead of their potential announcements. This focus on leaders in good patterns allows us to make good money even if companies do not announce the split, something that they are still gun-shy of even after the market has made a good recovery as well as the economy. The key with splits now is in the pattern; yes there is a positive move on the announcement, but stocks in this market need to have a good pattern of accumulation to really benefit from a split announcement.
APOL: New information. Forecast 6-24-04 before the open.
CECO: Forecast 7-20-04.
CHS: Looking for an announcement in mid-June in conjunction with a board meeting.
CRL: No announcement 4-28-04. Doji at the 18 day EMA as it tries to find its legs.
CWTR: Forecast 6-12-04 with its shareholder meeting.
DGX: Forecast 7-22-04 before the open.
ESRX: No split announced 5-26-04 with its shareholder meeting. Continues to hold solidly over the 10 day EMA.
FLIR: Forecast 7-21-04
GD: Forecast 6-3-04. No split announcement yet but moving up on rising volume.
HUG: Researching next date as HUG works on a handle to its current 7 week base.
IDXX: Forecast 7-22-04.
ITW: Forecast 7-20-04
LXK: Forecast 7-22-04.
POOL: Forecast 7-22-04
QCOM: Forecast 7-22-04
RNT: Forecast 7-28-04.
STJ: Forecast 7-22-04 before the open.
TRBS: Forecast 7-15-04
UOPX: Forecast 6-24-04 before the open.
WFMI: Forecast 7-28-94.
XRAY: Researching the next date. Good 10 day EMA test and volume is rallying.
ZBRA: Forecast 6-3-04 at annual shareholder meeting. No split announcement and ZBRA cut through the 18 day EMA.
ZMH: Forecast 7-21-04.
Full Write-ups: We do not cover all candidates in full in each report, but focus on those ready to make a move or are right at their forecast announcement date. This way we are focused on those stocks ready to make moves.
New Pre-Announcement Plays:
Play Date: 06/05/2004
CDWC (CDW Computer Centers--$68.85; +1.09; optionable): Wholesale computer sales. Forecast to announce a split
BACKGROUND: A frequent splitter before the bear market plunge, CDWC has finally fought back up to the $70 level where it announced regular splits.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cdwc.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Working on a week long handle to its 13 week base, easing back to the 10 day EMA (67.81) on low, below average volume. This comes after an interesting pattern with the right leg in May undercutting the left leg formed in March, holding the 200 day SMA (62.96), a key support level, as it did so. Strong money flow moving higher ahead of the stock, and after this shakeout in the handle that often indicates a move back up in the making. Looking for a strong volume breakout to start positions.
Volume: 504.881K Avg Volume: 931.639K
BUY POINT: $70.62 Volume=1.4M Target=$81 Stop=$66.72
POSITION: DWQ JN - Oct. $70c (48 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cdwc.html
Play Date: 06/05/2004
BMET (Biomet--$41.46; +0.49; optionable): Medical appliances. Forecast to announce a split on 7-1-04 during the market session in conjunction with earnings.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3 for 2 split on 7-9-01 in conjunction with earnings. The stock price was $43. The annual shareholder meeting was on 9-27-03 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 3 for 2 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bmet.html
STATUS: Double bottom. Making the breakout Friday from its 16 week base formed along the 50 day EMA (39.42), a solid institutional support level. Accumulation in the pattern is positive at 4 to 3 and money flow is solid, moving higher with the breakout. In addition, relative strength broke out with the stock, a very strong corroboration of the breakout move, indicating that BMET is outperforming the rest of the market. Looking to initiate a position on a further move on volume in this breakout.
Volume: 1.693M Avg Volume: 1.5M
BUY POINT: $41.88 Volume=2.2M Target=$48.22 Stop=$40.05
POSITION: BIQ JH - Oct. $40c (72 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/bmet.html
Continuing Pre-Announcement Plays:
Play Date: 05/27/2004
CECO (Career Education--$66.25; +1.2; optionable): Education and training. Last announced a 2 for 1 split on 7-22-03 in conjunction with earnings. The stock price was $75. Prior to that announced a 2 for 1 split on 7-31-01 in conjunction with earnings. The stock price was $63. Prior to that announced a 2 for 1 split in July 2000 at a stock price of approximately $52. The annual shareholder meeting was on 5-21-04 at which time additional shares were authorized.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/ceco.html
STATUS: After testing the 50 day EMA (62.41) two weeks back CECO rebounded on some decent trade. It has now come back to test the 18 day EMA 65.25) after that test, forming something of a reverse head and shoulders the past 7 weeks. A very strong stock, and this test of the move off the 50 day looks to be setting up a breakout. Solid leadership stock.
Volume: 1.292M Avg Volume: 1.922M
BUY POINT: $66.88 Volume=2M Target=$76.95 Stop=$63.45
POSITION: CUY JM - Oct. $65c (62 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ceco.html
Play Date: 06/03/2004
NMGA (Neiman Marcus Group--$52; -0.28; optionable): High end department stores. Released earnings 6-3-04 and they were solid. We are looking at this stock as a potential split announcer sometime next week, but even without, it is in a good position to profit from.
BACKGROUND: Based on our research NMGA has never announced a split. It is trading at an all-time high, however, and in a range where retailers frequently announce splits.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nmga.html
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. After the high volume bounce off the 50 day EMA (51.25) Thursday, NMGA took a breather Friday on low trade. It is starting to form something of a reverse head and shoulders after pulling back from the March high. Currently in a 13 week base, setting up for the move up to form the right side of the pattern. Very solid stock as high end retailers continue to perform. We are interested in starting a position on a further volume move as NMGA follows the surging money flow. Again, a good risk/reward position here.
Volume: 169.2K Avg Volume: 226.874K
BUY POINT: $53.06 Volume=330K Target=$59.55 Stop=$50.35
POSITION: NMG JJ - Oct. $50c (73 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/nmga.html
Play Date: 05/25/2004
TRBS (Texas Regional Bancshares--$43.90; +0.89; no options): Regional bank. Forecast to announce a split 7-15-04.
BACKGROUND: Last announces a 3:2 split on 6-11-02.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/trbs.html
STATUS: Ascending triangle. A nice volume surge to end May was tested to start this month, but TRBS held the 18 day EMA (43.08) and bounced Friday off of that level on some rising though still below average volume. A very nice triangle with solid 3 to 1 accumulation and surging money flow. It has made a higher low at the 18 day, and that higher low in a pattern often comes right before the breakout. Looks very good.
Volume: 77.842K Avg Volume: 108.347K
BUY POINT: New: $44.55 (orig. $43.98) Volume=175K Target=$50.45 Stop=$42.88
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/trbs.html
PRE-SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 06/03/2004
MRVL (Marvell Technology--$46.44; +0.77; optionable): Semiconductor integrated circuits. Splits 2:1 on 6-29-04
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mrvl.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Gapped higher Friday on the Intel news but there was no volume. None. After a nice handle formed to its 9 week base, MRVL was unable to deliver volume on the bounce. Still in a very solid pattern with money flow still running higher ahead of price. Just need to see more volume move into the stock. After this gap higher it may come back to test the 10 day EMA (45.35) once more before it is ready to go again.
Volume: 1.696M Avg Volume: 3.186M
BUY POINT: $46.55 Volume=4.5M Target=$51.45 Stop=$44.88
POSITION: UVM HI - Aug. $45c (59 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/mrvl.html
POST SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 05/25/2004
ANN (Ann Taylor--$28.47; +0.37; optionable): Apparel stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/ann.html
STATUS: 50 day EMA test. If I ever want to buy my wife some clothes, I can usually find something nice at Ann Taylor. Right now the stock is testing the 50 day EMA (27.70) after jumping off the 200 day SMA in May. It is taking a breather after that move, showing a doji Friday over that level. We are looking for this retailer to continue the rebound move toward the old high over 31, but we need to see the volume come in again as it does.
Volume: 729.7K Avg Volume: 927.95K
BUY POINT: $29.22 Volume=1M Target=$31.85 Stop=$27.42
POSITION: ANN IH - Sept. $40c (76 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ann.html
End part 2 of 3
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us stock market
stock trading
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