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Begin part 2 of 2
Economic Calendar
These are consensus expectations. Our expectations will vary and are discussed in the 'Economy' section.
June 14
Trade Balance, Apr (08:30): -$45.0B expected and -$46.0B prior
Retail Sales, May (08:30): 1.0% expected and -0.5% prior
Retail Sales ex-auto, May (08:30): 0.4% expected and -0.1% prior
June 15
PPI, May (8:30): DELAYED 0.6% expected and 0.7% prior
Core PPI, May (8:30): DELAYED 0.2% expected and 0.2% prior
Business Inventories, Apr (08:30): 0.5% expected and 0.7% prior
CPI, May (08:30): 0.4% expected and 0.2% prior
Core CPI, May (08:30): 0.2% expected and 0.3% prior
New York Empire State Index, June (08:30): 28.5 expected and 30.2 prior
Michigan Sentiment-Prel., June (09:45): 91.0 expected and 90.2 prior
June 16
Housing Starts, May (08:30): 1950K expected and 1969K prior
Building Permits, May (08:30): 1965K expected and 2006K prior
Industrial Production, May (09:15): 0.6% expected and 0.8% prior
Capacity Utilization, May (09:15): 77.3% expected and 76.9% prior
Fed Beige Book (14:00)
June 17
Initial Claims, 06/12 (08:30): 330K expected and 352K prior
Leading Indicators, May (10:00): 0.4% expected and 0.1% prior
Philadelphia Fed, June (12:00): 25.0 expected and 23.8 prior
June 18
Current Account, Q1 (08:30): -$139.6B expected and -$127.5B prior
THE PLAYS
Wednesday night play results:
CCI: Still working in a very nice pattern, ready to break to the upside.
CSTR: Continued the work on the handle to the base.
LGF: Still a very, very nice pattern readying for the breakout.
New plays for Monday:
Upside:
Play Date: 06/11/2004
AMMD (American Medical Systems--$29.87; -0.03; no options): Medical appliances
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/ammd.html
STATUS: Breakout test. AMMD surged out of a 14 week cup base the last week of May, rallying over 32 on that breakout move. it has spent the past two weeks easing back on mostly lower volume, holding the 18 day EMA (29.22) on the intraday lows as it holds the 10 day EMA (29.81) on the closes. Excellent 6 to 2 accumulation in the base (6 up price weeks on rising volume to 2 down price weeks on rising volume) shows money moving into the stock as it based. The lower volume pullback shows few sellers as it tests the move. Strong stocks will bounce up off the 10 or 18 day on their first test of the breakout, and that is an excellent place to move in when they start to bounce back on rising trade. Strong money flow remains ahead of the stock, a good sign for a continued breakout run.
Volume: 208.6K Avg Volume: 275K
BUY POINT: $30.62 Volume=333K Target=$36 Stop=$29.12
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/ammd.html
Play Date: 06/11/2004
JILL (J. Jill Group--$21.68; +0.23; optionable): Catalog and mail order
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/jill.html
STATUS: Flat base. JILL is working on its second base after bottoming in early 2003. It broke out from an 8 month base in March, rallied to 22, and then fell into the current 10 week pattern to take a rest. Accumulation in the pattern is very strong at 5 to 1 as it is evident institutions still want to own it. The flat base has ranged between 20 and 22. This past week it eased back to the 10 day EMA (21.28) on very low, below average volume, making a higher low. That often is the precursor to a breakout form stocks within ranges. Money flow is surging higher ahead of price even as it pulls back, a very strong indication it will make the breakout move.
Volume: 204.2K Avg Volume: 348.636K
BUY POINT: $22.22 Volume=523K Target=$26.65 Stop=$20.98
POSITION: JUI IX - Sept. $22.50c (49 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/jill.html
Play Date: 06/11/2004
MIMS (MI Developments--$9.21; +0.21; optionable): Specialized health services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mims.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Blasted out of a 9 month flat base to start the month, surging from 8 to 9.80 on the breakout move. It has spent the past week coming back to test that move, making its first breakout test. It tapped at the 10 day EMA (8.86) Thursday and posted a modest gain on lower but very solid, above average volume. Accumulation in the longer base was a solid 11 to 7 with strong money flow. Looking for it to continue the rebound from its first test on solid trade to give us a solid entry point.
Volume: 319.8K Avg Volume: 192.727K
BUY POINT: $9.72 Volume=300K Target=$11.68 Stop=$9.04
POSITION: OQX JB - Oct. $10c (40 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/mims.html
SUBSCRIBER PORTFOLIO: These are stocks subscribers suggest by vote that we put in a portfolio to track and move into the stocks if they perform well. If you have any suggestions for additions or deletions, email us. We don't cover them all each report, just when something interesting is developing.
ALDN, BRCM, CECO, COH, DNA, EBAY, GTRC, LPNT, TGT
BRCM: An excellent low volume pullback to tap at the 10 day EMA (42.41) on the Thursday low and then rebounded. This follows a strong move to start the week, rising on good volume. Ready for the next move. Aggressive from here, breakout is a move over 44 on above average volume (9 million is average).
DNA: Diving lower below support. Will need a base to set back up for another breakout.
TGT: Big gap higher Thursday as it announced the sale of the May department stores. It gave almost all of the move back, however. Still strong and if it can continue the move from here, another buy or add to point.
SUBSCRIBER WATCHLIST
We continually receive ideas for potential plays from subscribers. Many times they are already on our watchlists, other times not. We always take a look and sometimes find a gem or two, or more. We don't necessarily endorse these, but want to provide a forum for subscribers with ideas that may appeal to other subscribers. We may just put on the ticker or we might describe our thoughts as to why or why not we think it is a buy or sell. This is a way we can all learn a bit more and maybe find a few more candidates to make us some good money.
Upside:
CTEC: Working on a year long base, now riding up the 50 day EMA with some resistance at 10. A bit too low in the pattern (7 on the low, 12.89 on the high) to form a handle. If it breaks over 10 it is an aggressive buy as it is before the base forms, but it is not in bad position from a risk/reward sense on that move.
CONTINUING PLAYS
* * SPREADSHEET DOWNLOAD * * *
The following link is to a spreadsheet download of the continuing play table. It will allow subscribers to sort the data for your personal investment use. This is a service to our subscribers only, and no other use of the information is authorized. Simply click on the link, enter your username and password, and download the spreadsheet.
http://investmenthouse.com/daily/table.php
You will need your password. If you need help click on this link and our automated system will email it to you immediately once you fill in your email address:
http://www.investmenthouse.com/rescue/rescue.php3
LEGEND FOR CONTINUING PLAY TABLE
DATE: date play first appeared on report.
PLAY: Denotes the type of pattern or play.
Upside play types: Asc Tri=Ascending triangle; BO=Breakout; Cup=Cup base; Cup hdl=Cup w/handle; DB hdl=Double bottom w/handle; Dbl btm=Double bottom; Flat=Flat base; FlyPlat=Flying Plateau; Pennant=Pennant; Rv H&S=Reverse head & shoulders; Saucer=Saucer base; Test 18=Testing 18 day MVA; Test 50=Testing 50 day MVA; Test BO=Testing the breakout (could be 10 day MVA test, etc.)
Downside play types: CCall=Covered Call; Dsc Tri=Descending triangle; Dbl Top=Double top; H&S=Head & shoulders; Put (generic downside);
PIVOT=Buy point
Tgt=Target stock price for the play. Applies to stock and options.
Vol=Volume for the most recent session.
TgtV=Target volume to enter the play.
Stop=Stop advisory point. This is advisory and we may or may not exit a play if it hits this level depending upon market conditions.
PLAY STATUS: Buy not hit (stock has not hit buy point); Buy not issued (stock has hit buy point but did not enter due to weak volume, poor intraday action, poor market action); Current (ongoing play already entered); Entered today (entered the play that session); Exited (closed the position); Target hit (play hit initial target; will note if took all or partial gain or let run further); Trailing stop (exited using a trailing stop loss).
Upside Plays
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
ABM 05/17 Flat 18.39 -0.61 18.99 21.85 308K 185K 18.71
Exited. Tanked on very strong volume surge.
AKAM 05/26 DB hdl 15.38 -0.33 15.29 18 2.2M 4.8M 15.37
Exited. Continue to move down below the 10 day MVA on rising volume.
AME 06/07 Cup hdl 27.95 +0.4 28.01 32.25 173K 300K 27.21
Current. Moving up the 10 day MVA on rising, but still below average volume
ANF 06/03 Cup hdl 37.31 +0.62 37.12 42.75 1.8M 2.7M 36.92
Current. Bounced off the 10 day MVA on stronger above average volume. Needs to break through resistance here.
ANIK 06/03 Test BO 13.21 +0.63 13.79 16.82 93K 155K 12.82
Current. Nice move up holding just above the 10 day on lower, below average volume. Moving up after testing the break out.
APCS 06/05 Cup 7.46 -0.05 7.62 9.15 1.4M 2.5M 7.09
Buy Not Issued. Pull back testing the 10 day MVA and rallied on rising, but still below average volume. Still in the pattern.
ASE 06/08 Test BO 20.99 +0.99 20.42 24 143K 150K 19.06
Current. Nice move up the 10 day MVA making a 52 week high on lower, but still above average volume.
ATRM 05/08 Test BO 8.31 +0.06 8.82 10.55 235K 177K 8.22
Current. Tapped 8.60 at the intraday high (10 day MVA), but gave most of it back showing a doji on lower, below average volume. Holding above support at 8.12.
AXCA 06/01 Cup hdl 19.48 -0.12 20.06 23.42 183K 346K 19.05
Buy Not Issued. Gapped up at the open, but gave it back tapping 18.58 at the low and rallied holding the 10 day MVA. Still in the pattern.
BEIQ 05/08 Cup 26.65 -0.73 24.12 28 285K 124K 26.46
Current. Sold very hard early but then reversed and recovered
the 10 day EMA. Will look for the next entry point.
BEV 05/17 DB hdl 8.49 -0.01 8.52 10.25 776K 2.5M 7.92
Buy Not Issued. Tapped 8.35 at the low and rallied showing a doji on low volume. Still in good shape.
BID 05/29 Cup hdl 15.61 -0.16 15.39 18.48 213K 465K 15.25
Current. Routine pull back on lower, below average volume.
BLUD 05/18 Test BO 30.63 +0.18 27.49 32 292K 500K 29.46
Current. Showing a doji on the 10 day MVA on rising, but still below average volume. Doji may indicate change in pattern.
BRCM 05/24 Flat 43.22 +0.52 41.44 47.42 4.8M 13M 41.88
Current. Tapped 42.55 at the low and rallied on lower, below average volume. Moving up after routine pull back.
CCI 06/09 Rv H&S 15.05 +0.24 15.38 17.69 825K 2M 14.44
Buy Not Hit. moving up the 10 day MVA on low volume. Needs to break through resistance here.
CEN 05/25 Cup hdl 22.88 -0.31 22.95 26.55 277K 1.1M 21.96
Buy Not Issued. Pull back tapping 22.68 at the low and rallied on low volume. Still in good shape.
CNTY 05/22 Test BO 5.39 -0.3 5.52 6.82 114K 145K 5.41
Current. Pull back tapping 5.27 at the low and rallied holding just above the 18 day MVA on rising, but still below average volume. Testing the break out.
CSTR 06/09 Cup hdl 18.8 +0.05 19.55 22.48 184K 738K 18.32
Buy Not Hit. Tested the 10 day MVA and rallied showing a doji on low volume. Moving up after routine pull back.
DAB 06/05 Rv H&S 17.51 -0.14 19.53 23.35 90K 123K 18.16
Current. Tapped 17.95 at the high, but gave it all back holding just above the 50 day MVA on average volume. Looking for a bounce from here.
EBAY 03/06 Flat 87.4 +1.09 71.78 82.25 6.6M 10M 84.12
Current. Tested the 18 day MVA and rallied holding the 10 day MVA on lower, below average volume. Moving up after testing the 18 day MVA.
EBAY 12/12 Test 18 87.4 +1.09 34.72 46 6.6M 12M 84.12
Current.
EBAY 10/15 Test 50 87.4 +1.09 31.22 46 6.6M 12M 84.12
Current.
EEFT 05/10 Asc Tri 21.5 -0.5 20.67 24.75 425K 425K 21.95
Trailing Stop. Thudded down below the 18 day MVA on strong volume surge.
EGLS 05/18 Dbl btm 4.98 +0.03 5.09 6.18 18K 212K 4.93
Current. Beginning to make a lateral move on the 18 day MVA on very low volume.
FIX 06/07 Flat 7.62 +0.02 7.67 9.42 47K 224K 7.32
Current. Tapped 7.51 at the low and rallied showing a doj on very low volume as stock makes a lateral move.
GLW 05/29 Cup hdl 12.84 +0.16 12.87 15.38 5.3M 12M 12.32
Current. Tapped 12.60 at the low and rallied on low volume. Needs to break through resistance at 13
GNSC 04/28 Dbl btm 3.92 -0.17 4.02 4.98 128K 172K 4.08
Exited. Big gap down showing a doji on the 50 day MVA on stronger above average volume.
IRIS 06/03 Test BO 8.08 -0.5 9.25 11.12 145K 200K 8.58
Buy Not Issued. Tanked below the 18 day MVA on rising volume. The stock has not performed so will drop.
KNSY 06/02 Test BO 35.14 -0.37 35.62 41.12 74K 215K 34.22
Current. Pul back tapping 34.85 at the low and rallied on low volume. Routine pull back.
LGF 06/09 Asc Tri 6.62 -0.07 6.98 8.42 186K 700K 6.49
Buy Not Hit. Pull back tapping 6.50 at the low and rallied holding above the 10 day MVA on lower, below average volume. Still in the pattern.
LPNT 05/12 Cup hdl 37.75 +0.2 37.38 43 336K 700K 37.21
Current. Tested the 18 day MVA and rallied holding the 10 day MVA on rising, but still below average volume. Still in good shape.
LSCP 06/01 Test 50 30.51 -0.23 32.29 38.55 351K 600K 30.29
Current. Showing a doji just above the 18 day MVA on low volume. Testing the break out.
MACE 06/08 Asc Tri 6.05 +0.41 6.12 7.75 13M 6.5M 5.69
Buy Not Issued. Moving up the 10 day MVA showing a doji on stronger above average volume. Doji may indicate a change in pattern.
MEOH 06/03 Cup hdl 12.48 +0.23 12.62 15.25 130K 379K 11.94
Buy Not Issued. Tapped 12.22 at the low and rallied up the 10 day MVA on lower, below average volume. needs to break through resistance at 12.56.
NAVR 04/09 Flat 13.61 -0.09 7.43 9.12 1M 733K 12.98
Current. Pull back on stronger above average volume. May test back to support at 13
NCOG 06/05 Cup hdl 25.52 -0.43 25.48 30 240K 248K 24.24
Buy Not Issued. Tapped 26 at the high, but gave it back on stronger above average volume. May test back to support at 25.
NXTP 05/12 Cup hdl 15.66 -0.14 15.36 18.22 1.9M 3M 15.42
Current. Pull back testing the 18 day MVA and rallied on rising, but still below average volume. Holding above support at 15.38.
OLGC 06/02 Dbl btm 8.51 +0.07 9.01 10.88 131K 295K 8.38
Current. Tapped 8.20 at the intraday low and made a fierce rally showing a doji on the 10 day MVA on rising, but average volume. Moving up on rising volume after testing the break out.
QQQ 06/02 DB hdl 36.84 +0.26 36.72 38 57M 125M 35.55
Buy Not Issued. Continue to move up the 10 day MVA on low volume. Have not entered the play, because volume is not there.
RHAT 05/18 Asc Tri 25.66 -0.24 27.32 31.25 3.6M 7M 26.38
Current. Pull back tapping 25.40 at the low and rallied holding above the simple 50 day MVA on lower, but average volume. Looking for a bounce from here.
SBUX 07/30 Cup 42.63 -0.12 30.35 36.75 1.9M 6M 40.88
Current. tapped 43.21 at the high, but gave it back showing a tight doji on lower, below average volume. routine pull back
SBUX 07/01 Cup 42.63 -0.12 26.3 30.94 1.9M 6M 40.88
Current.
SEMI 06/08 Cup hdl 10.68 +0.07 10.65 12.78 57K 100K 9.88
Buy Not Issued. Gapped down at the open and rallied on much lower, but still below average volume. Beginning to make a lateral move.
SLE 06/07 Cup hdl 23.16 -0.15 23.72 27.45 2M 3M 22.88
Buy Not Hit. Pull back tapping 23.10 at the low and rallied holding just above the 10 day MVA on rising, but average volume. still in good shape.
SMRT 05/18 DB hdl 14.45 +0.18 14.98 17.75 226K 337K 14.22
Current. Tapped 14 at the low and 14.71 at the high showing a doji just under the 10 day MVA on lower, below average volume. Still in the pattern.
SMTC 05/26 Dbl btm 23.82 -0.1 25.24 29 914K 1.7M 23.82
Exited. Continue to move down below the 18 day MVA on below average volume.
SONE 05/05 Cup hdl 10.49 +0.1 9.72 11.88 597K 625K 9.88
Current. Continue to move up the 10 day MVA showing a tight doji on lower, but still above average volume. Needs to break through resistance here.
SWW 05/27 Flat 3.33 +0.04 3.31 4.14 218K 204K 3.08
Current. Moving up the 10 day MVA on lower, but still above average volume.
TGT 08/09 Flat 45.75 +0.12 41.45 50 10M 5.7M 44.92
TRFX 06/10 Cup hdl 7.83 +0.35 7.96 9.55 333K 216K 7.32
Entered today. Kept watching it, and after the formation of this 2
week handle to the 9 week base it made the high voluem
breakout.
ULGX 05/21 Test BO 15 -0.1 11.97 14.16 166K 228K 14.04
Current. Tapped 14.55 at the intraday low and rallied showing a doji on rising, but still below average volume. Needs to break through resistance here.
USPI 05/03 Cup 39.05 +0.19 39.37 44.78 279K 370K 38.62
Current. Tested the 18 day MVA and rallied on lower, but still slightly above average volume. Moving up after testing the break out.
VXGNE 04/28 Cup hdl 14.86 -0.03 14.98 17.25 311K 1.1M 14.75
Current. Beginning to make a lateral move showing a doji on low volume under the 18 day MVA. Still in good shape.
VXGNE 04/19 Cup hdl 14.86 -0.03 13.58 16.15 311K 1.1M 14.75
Current.
WMB 05/04 Cup hdl 11.81 +0.11 11.08 13.25 2.4M 5.4M 11.48
Current. Bounced off the 10 day MVA on lower, below average volume. Needs to break through resistance at 11.94.
WOOF 02/23 Cup hdl 42.98 -0.16 31.24 37 228K 296K 42.72
Current. Tapped 43.44 at the high (10 day MVA), but gave it back showing a tight doji on 18 day MVA on rising, but still below average volume.
ZEUS 05/27 DB hdl 16.65 +0.59 14.17 17.18 426K 253K 15.72
Current. Gapped up at the open for a nice gain showing a doji on very strong volume. Doji may indicate a change in pattern.
Downside Plays
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
EMIS 05/10 Put 4.79 -0.41 4.98 4 32K 145K 5.21
Current. rolled over on very low volume holding above support at 4.70
SEM 05/23 Put 12.92 +0.18 13.11 11.05 929K 2M 14.02
Buy Not Issued. Showing a doji just under the 10 day MVA on rising, but still below average volume. Stock needs to continue with low volume rally.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and The Daily Staff
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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