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us stock market, trading system
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers Thursday: BMET; UOPX; URBN; ZBRA
In each report we prepare full write-ups for those plays that look ready to move. Those that have made the move or are still setting up are discussed in the continuing play table. The purpose is to focus on those stocks that are set to move.
NEW PLAYS: This section includes plays from all sections other than pre-announcements. Those are contained in the pre-announcement section.
New Pre-Split Plays:
Play Date: 07/01/2004
SLXP (Salix Pharmaceuticals--$32.82; -0.13; optionable): Drug related products. Splits 3:2 on 7-15-04
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/slxp.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. After a nice run from an August 2003 breakout that ran SLXP up to 35, SLXP needed a breather and has formed the current 6 week base. It is moving laterally the past three sessions, moving on very low, below average volume, forming the handle to the base. This is where the last sellers are shaken out as they become frustrated that the stock is stalling below the prior high. Once they are gone the stock is in stronger hands and can make the breakout. Want to see volume surge on the move through the buy point. With the split about two weeks away, it is getting into that range where the momentum takes over.
Volume: 157.928K Avg Volume: 332.363K
BUY POINT: $33.62 Volume=500K Target=$38.68 Stop=$31.65
POSITION: PQN JF - Oct. $30c (71 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/slxp.html
Play Date: 07/01/2004
SSP (E.W. Scripps--$106.44; +1.44; optionable): Newspaper publishing. Splits 2:1 on a date to be announced.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/ssp.html
STATUS: 50 day EMA test. A very nice 50 day EMA (104.80). Volume jumped as it made the test, moving back above average. It jumped off of the 50 day Thursday, ignoring the rest of the market that sold off. Volume, however, was lower as it made the surge. A pre-split, so we are not too concerned about volume, but we always like to have that as well as the moves tend to stick better. Looking for a further move up on some better volume.
Volume: 107.1K Avg Volume: 157.09K
BUY POINT: $106.62 Volume=177K Target=$112 Stop=$104.88
POSITION: SSP IA - Sept. $105c (59 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ssp.html
New Leader Plays: May not be ready for a split but solid leadership.
Play Date: 07/01/2004
NUS (Nu Skin--$25.49; +0.17; optionable): Wholesale drugs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nus.html
STATUS: Cup. Trying to make the breakout from an 11 week base that tried to form a handle this week, but just not much of a pullback. It gapped higher Thursday but volume was still below average. Accumulation in the base is 2 to 1 (2 up price weeks on rising volume to 1 down price week on rising volume), setting the foundation for a breakout. Huge volume spike last Friday, but that was also the rebalancing Friday for the Russell. Great money flow and relative strength breaking out. All it needs is some volume.
Volume: 254.9K Avg Volume: 351.59K
BUY POINT: $25.78 Volume=520K Target=$29.88 Stop=$24.22
POSITION: NUS LE - Dec. $25c (59 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/nus.html
Play Date: 07/01/2004
ODP (Office Depot--$18.33; +0.42; optionable): Discount office supplies
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/o/odp.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. As the market solid ODP surged on strong volume, moving for the breakout from its 12 week pattern that has set up very well. Solid 3 to 1 accumulation in the pattern is setting up the foundation for another breakout. Money flow is starting to move higher and the stock has shown strong trade the past week. Looks ready.
Volume: 3.065M Avg Volume: 1.552M
BUY POINT: $18.57 Volume=2.3M Target=$21.38 Stop=$17.58
POSITION: ODP JW - Oct. $17.50c (72 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/odp.html
Continuing Leader Plays:
Play Date: 06/29/2004
DRTE (Dendrite Intl.--$18.36; -0.22; optionable): Application software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/drte.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Took a day off Thursday, something we were glad to see after the solid move up Tuesday and Wednesday. Volume was lower and the loss was modest. Still a great 10 week base sporting outstanding 5 to 0 accumulation and money flow surging higher above price. Just looking for another volume surge on the next move higher.
Volume: 264.392K Avg Volume: 224.045K
BUY POINT: $18.52 Volume=320K Target=$21.32 Stop=$17.22
POSITION: DEQ KW - Nov. $17.50c (65 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/drte.html
Play Date: 04/27/2004
MSSN (Mission Resources--$5.74; +0.04; no options): Independent oil and gas
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mssn.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Massive breakout in March and another in late May. MSSN is now coming back to test that last breakout, holding over the 18 day EMA (5.62) on very low, below average volume. Money flow remains strong as does relative strength. Looks ready to start the next bounce higher.
Volume: 283.574K Avg Volume: 566.863K
BUY POINT: New: $5.88 (orig. $4.89) Volume=615K Target=New positions: $6.92 (orig. positions: $5.92) Stop=$5.54
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/mssn.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
Current Pre-Announcement Plays: In each report we look at the candidates that are in the best patterns ahead of their potential announcements. This focus on leaders in good patterns allows us to make good money even if companies do not announce the split, something that they are still gun-shy of even after the market has made a good recovery as well as the economy. The key with splits now is in the pattern; yes there is a positive move on the announcement, but stocks in this market need to have a good pattern of accumulation to really benefit from a split announcement.
AET: Forecast 7-29-04
BMET: Forecast 7-1-04 before the open. No split but a nice break higher. Great move underway.
CDWC: Forecast 7-12-04 after the market closes.
CECO: Forecast 7-20-04.
CHS: Looking at 7-8-04 when its June sales will be announced.
CRL: Had to exit with a trailing stop early after it announced an acquisition that the market did not like.
DAKT: Forecast 8-18-04.
DGX: Forecast 7-22-04 before the open.
FLIR: Forecast 7-21-04
FSH: Forecast 7-28-04.
GD: Exited on the pullback.
HUG: Forecast 8-24-04 after the close.
ITW: Forecast 7-20-04
LXK: Forecast 7-22-04.
ORLY: 7-27-04 after the close.
POOL: Forecast 7-22-04
QCOM: Forecast 7-22-04
RNT: Forecast 7-28-04.
SBUX: Forecast 7-21-04
STN: Forecast 7-20-04.
TRBS: Forecast 7-15-04
UOPX: Moved back over the 50 day EMA on some rising, above average volume.
WFMI: Forecast 7-28-94. Adding to the gain on volume.
XRAY: Forecast 7-26-04. Took a breather Thursday.
ZBRA: Forecast with earnings in July and getting conformation of that date. Surging higher on volume.
Full Write-ups: We do not cover all candidates in full in each report, but focus on those ready to make a move or are right at their forecast announcement date. This way we are focused on those stocks ready to make moves.
Continuing Pre-Announcement Plays:
Play Date: 06/29/2004
AET (Aetna--$84.41; -0.59; optionable): Health care plans/insurance. Forecast to announce a split on 7-29-04 before the market opens in conjunction with earnings.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for 1 split in November 2000 at $64. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/aet.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Went about its own business on very low volume as the market sold off. Still holding tight in its 12 week pattern with strong 5 to 2 accumulation. Good sign that it was quiet in its handle, holding over the 50 day EMA (83.51). Just being patient and waiting for the breakout move.
Volume: 764.9K Avg Volume: 1.435M
BUY POINT: $85.15 Volume=2.2M Target=$100 Stop=$82.98
POSITION: AET JQ - Oct. $85c (50 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/aet.html
Play Date: 06/26/2004
DAKT (Daktronics--$24.45; -0.5; optionable): Scientific & technical instruments. Forecast to announce a split on 8-18-04 in conjunction with earnings. The company has not confirmed this date.
BACKGROUND: Last split in June 2001, announcing at $20. Prior to that it announced a split in December 1999 at $20 as well. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dakt.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Similar to many stocks, DAKT took the day off Thursday. Unlike many stocks, it did not roll over or tank, just eased back a bit, giving up some of the solid move of the past week. Still a solid 18 week base with 5 to 3 accumulation. May come back to test the 10 day EMA (24.09) before it is ready to resume the move.
Volume: 112.125K Avg Volume: 101.181K
BUY POINT: $24.48 Volume=151K Target=$28.22 Stop=$22.97
POSITION: QKC JE - Oct. $25c (45 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/dakt.html
Play Date: 06/01/2004
HUG (Hughes Supply--$58.15; -0.78; optionable): Plumbing supply. Forecast 8-24-04 after the close.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a split in 1997 at a price of $42.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hug.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Working laterally on very low, below average volume after a strong gap higher Monday. This is finally setting up a breakout from its 9 week base sporting strong 4 to 1 accumulation. Money flow is surging higher ahead of price even as its works laterally to form the handle and shakeout the last sellers. Ready for the next move.
Volume: 183.3K Avg Volume: 265.272K
BUY POINT: New: $59.42 (orig. $56.41) Volume=314K Target=$69 Stop=$55.08
POSITION: HUG JK - Oct. $55c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/hug.html
Play Date: 06/03/2004
NMGA (Neiman Marcus Group--$55.31; -0.34; optionable): High end department stores. Researching the next date for an announcement.
BACKGROUND: Based on our research NMGA has never announced a split. It is trading near an all-time high, however, and in a range where retailers frequently announce splits.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nmga.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Volume has started to surge the past three sessions as NMGA strains toward the breakout from its 16 week base with positive 5 to 4 accumulation. This volume is really starting to pour it on, and we are looking for a breakout over the recent resistance at 56 to take positions.
Volume: 271.8K Avg Volume: 212.818K
BUY POINT: New: 56.12 (orig. $55.62) Volume=330K Target=$61.62 Stop=$53.32
POSITION: NMG JJ - Oct. $50c (73 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/nmga.html
Play Date: 06/04/2004
STN (Station Casinos--$48.52; +0.12; optionable): Resorts and casinos. Forecast to announce a split on 7-20-04 before the market opens on in conjunction with earnings.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3 for 2 split in June 2000 at a stock price of approximately around $15. The annual shareholder meeting was on 5-21-03 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/stn.html
STATUS: Ascending triangle. The pattern has really tightened up the past three weeks, making a higher low and holding the 18 day EMA (48.08) on the lows. Solid 3 to 1 accumulation in the pattern. Nice tight doji Thursday on low volume as the rest of the market sold off. It is trying to set up for the next move, and this tight range on low volume suggests it is preparing to make the breakout.
Volume: 256.3K Avg Volume: 521.863K
BUY POINT: $48.08 Volume=725K Target=$55.22 Stop=$47.22
POSITION: STN JJ - Oct. $50c (50 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/stn.html
PRE-SPLIT PLAYS
Play Date: 06/30/2004
INFY (Infosys Technologies--$92.12; -1.06; optionable): Technical and system software. Splits 2:1 on 7-7-04.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/infy.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Still in a very nice pullback the past three sessions, forming the handle to its very orderly 6 month base. It held the 200 day at 83.70), a key support level. Accumulation in the pattern is a solid 6 to 4, setting up the foundation for the breakout. It is making the further pullback toward the 10 day EMA (90.82) as anticipated, ignoring the selling in the market. It still may come back to fully test the 10 day EMA and then make the breakout move.
Volume: 212.325K Avg Volume: 294.772K
BUY POINT: After test of 90.54, then 92.55. Volume=441K Target=$104.88 Stop=$90.38
POSITION: IUN JS - Oct. $95c (49 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/infy.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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us stock market
trading system
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