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Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers Thursday: MEOH; LGF; PTEK; SBUX
Wednesday night play results:
INSP: Turned back down sharply on some rising but still below average volume. It could have used a pullback. This was a bit more than we wanted, but now it can form a handle.
IT: Still working laterally on low volume, ignoring the market.
TLCV: Eased back from the buy point late. Volume was good. On a further move it is ready.
New plays for Friday:
Upside:
Play Date: 07/01/2004
ANDW (Andrew Corp.--$19.92; -0.09; optionable): Telecom equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/andw.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. In this market patterns don't always look beautiful, but if they have the necessary elements, they breakout and run just the same. A solid 11 week base that formed over the 50 day EMA (18.94) and sporting solid 4 to 2 accumulation. After a high volume surge off the 50 day last week it has come back to test and hold at the 10 day EMA (19.76) on lower, below average volume, trading in a narrow range. Looking for a high volume jump off of this test. ANDW ignored the market as it sold off Thursday, a very good sign of leadership as it makes its own wake.
Volume: 2.396M Avg Volume: 2.725M
BUY POINT: $20.88 Volume=4.1M Target=$24.38 Stop=$19.42
POSITION: AQN JD - Oct. $20c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/andw.html
Play Date: 07/01/2004
CACS (Carrier Access--$13.25; +1.33; optionable): Telecom equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cacs.html
STATUS: Cup. Received an upgrade Thursday and shot higher on strong, strong volume. It is coming off the bottom of a 22 week base, jumping off the 50 day EMA (11.59). Money flow is surging higher ahead of price, and accumulation is positive at 5 to 4 in the base; at this stage of the pattern, positive accumulation is good. It is only going to get better as it rallies. Nice play because it can give us a solid return without having to hit a new high since the base started.
Volume: 2.021M Avg Volume: 323K
BUY POINT: $13.62 Volume=484K Target=$16.95 Stop=$12.67
POSITION: CQQ JV - Oct. $12.50c (64 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/cacs.html
Play Date: 07/01/2004
WIND (Wind River Systems--$11.55; -0.21; optionable): Computer software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wind.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. WIND is easing back to the 10 day EMA (11.36) after a nice jump higher the past two weeks, showing some very nice volume spikes on up sessions. Like these 'get ready' spikes as a pattern winds down. Kind of like getting its legs under it, crouching to make a break higher. Accumulation in the pattern is 3 to 2; all it takes is a positive ratio. A very nice, orderly base consolidating the breakout and run starting in July 2003. Being patient and waiting for the high volume breakout through the buy point. Those volume spikes tell us to be ready.
Volume: 523.014K Avg Volume: 685.09K
BUY POINT: $11.98 Volume=1M Target=$14.75 Stop=$11.14
POSITION: QWV KB - Nov. $10c (76 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/wind.html
SUBSCRIBER PORTFOLIO: These are stocks subscribers suggest by vote that we put in a portfolio to track and move into the stocks if they perform well. If you have any suggestions for additions or deletions, email us. We don't cover them all each report, just when something interesting is developing.
BRCM, COH, EBAY, GTRC, TGT
Send in your votes for new additions to the portfolio.
EBAY: Easing back to test the 10 day EMA on lower volume. Getting a bit long in the run up the short term MA to enter new positions. If it does bounce again we will look at selling calls as the move looks ready to pullback.
SUBSCRIBER WATCHLIST
We continually receive ideas for potential plays from subscribers. Many times they are already on our watchlists, other times not. We always take a look and sometimes find a gem or two, or more. We don't necessarily endorse these, but want to provide a forum for subscribers with ideas that may appeal to other subscribers. We may just put on the ticker or we might describe our thoughts as to why or why not we think it is a buy or sell. This is a way we can all learn a bit more and maybe find a few more candidates to make us some good money.
Downside: NVDA: Made a lower high in early June, then fell through the 200 day SMA. After a weak attempt at moving up to test that breakdown it rolled over Thursday on rising, average volume. Looks ready to run down toward 17.
Upside:
XMSR: Double bottom off of the 200 day SMA has sent it back up on some solid volume. Looks to be stalling out now and ready to work laterally to form a handle to the base. Needs some better accumulation.
Good Investing! Jon L. Johnson and The Daily Staff All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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