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us stock market, stock ticker
Begin part 2 of 2
THE PLAYS
Good movers Friday: BID; SSNC; SMRT; VLTS
Thursday night play results:
APCS: Tapped up toward the breakout point and eased back.
CD: Eased back on lower volume after the strong Thursday move.
PLLL: Started up off the 18 day EMA on stronger volume. Looks ready to resume the breakout move.
New plays for Monday:
Upside:
Play Date: 07/10/2004
EGOV (Nic, Inc.--$6.67; +0.07; no options): Web solutions for federal, state and local governments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/egov.html
STATUS: Cup with handle. As the rest of the market solid on volume, EGOV eased back to test the 18 day EMA (6.59), forming the handle to its 25 week base. Volume was very low and below average as it slipped back to support at 6.50. Accumulation in the base is a solid 3 to 1 (3 up price weeks on rising volume to 1 down price week on rising volume), showing us that money continues to move into the stock even as it forms the current base. It used the 200 day SMA (6.30) as support, an important level as discussed in the market summary. Money flow is ahead or price and is starting to move higher even as the stock eased back. That is a positive divergence and a very good sign for a coming breakout. Earnings released 7-28-04.
Volume: 144.12K Avg Volume: 207.395K
BUY POINT: $6.88 Volume=311K Target=$8.45 Stop=$6.47
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/egov.html
Play Date: 07/10/2004
NVTL (Novatel Wireless--$23.83; -0.12; optionable): Telecom wireless communications
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nvtl.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Similar to EGOV, as the market sold NVTL eased back on very low, below average volume, minding its own business and forming the handle to its 12 week base. These low volume pullbacks show very few sellers. After approaching the former high (28) NVTL started to fade. The last sellers get frustrated and sell out; the stock falls but not much and on lighter volume because there are not many sellers left. When they are gone the stock makes the breakout. Friday NVTL tapped just below the 18 day EMA (23.58) and rebounded to hold that level on the close. NVTL is a solid 5 to 2, setting up the breakout and showing us that money moved into the stock during this 12 weeks of basing that followed 12 weeks of strong gains (6 to 28). We are looking for NVTL to give us some similar action after this breakout. Our initial target takes in the first run. We will take some gain on that move but let the rest run. When it pulls back after that and gives us the next buy point, we will add positions. Earnings early August.
Volume: 735.759K Avg Volume: 1.379M
BUY POINT: $24.85 Volume=1.8M Target=$29.85 Stop=$23.44
POSITION: NVU LE - Dec. $25c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/nvtl.html
Play Date: 07/10/2004
TZOO (Travelzoo--$27.09; -0.06; no options): Internet media publishing sales & specials for travel companies.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tzoo.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Basically unknown until this year, TZOO exploded higher in April, breaking out from a 5 month flat base. It has surged, quadrupling in May and June. It is making the second test of the breakout, easing back to the 10 day EMA (26.37) on lower and lower volume, after the massive volume it saw on both previous upside runs. Accumulation in the base that sparked this move was a stellar 5 to 1. Strong money flow is another positive for the stock. We are looking for it to complete this test over the next couple of sessions and then start the next run on another surge of volume. We can bag a nice gain with it just returning to its previous high, and that is our initial target. If it is inclined to surge another 15 points, however, we will let it. Earnings announced 7-13-04 before the open.
Volume: 270.609K Avg Volume: 357.319K
BUY POINT: $27.75 Volume=500K Target=$32.78 Stop=$26.22
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/tzoo.html
Downside:
Play Date: 07/10/2004
ABT (Abbott Labs--$39.90; -0.38; optionable): Drugs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/abt.html
STATUS: Put. In June ABT tried to make the breakout from a base that formed to start the year. It showed some decent volume, but then reversed, showing even stronger volume. It fell below the 200 day SMA (40.89) in late June and tumbled to 39.50. It has bounced, but Friday it gapped higher to the 200 day and then reversed on the strongest volume since the selling started as earnings were in line but nothing more. Looking to move in on a further move lower on continued solid volume.
Volume: 5.274M Avg Volume: 3.954M
BUY POINT: $39.55 Volume=3.9M Target=$37 Stop=$40.63
POSITION: ABT WH - Nov. $45p (-46 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/abt.html
SUBSCRIBER PORTFOLIO: These are stocks subscribers suggest by vote that we put in a portfolio to track and move into the stocks if they perform well. If you have any suggestions for additions or deletions, email us. We don't cover them all each report, just when something interesting is developing.
BRCM, COH, CTAS, EASI, EBAY, GTRC, QCOM, SYK, TGT
QCOM: Still holding up very well over the 18 day EMA at 70 as the market sold. Looks as if it will be ready for another entry on a strong volume bounce.
CTAS: Tested the 200 day SMA on the Friday low and bounced. May be ready to continue higher.
SUBSCRIBER WATCHLIST
We continually receive ideas for potential plays from subscribers. Many times they are already on our watchlists, other times not. We always take a look and sometimes find a gem or two, or more. We don't necessarily endorse these, but want to provide a forum for subscribers with ideas that may appeal to other subscribers. We may just put on the ticker or we might describe our thoughts as to why or why not we think it is a buy or sell. This is a way we can all learn a bit more and maybe find a few more candidates to make us some good money.
Upside:
APSG: Moving laterally in a flying plateau after a strong breakout and surge in June.
Downside:
ALGN: Tanked below the 200 day SMA the past two sessions. Looking for a rebound to test that move, and that will provide a good entry point when it stalls out.
CONTINUING PLAYS * * * SPREADSHEET DOWNLOAD * * * The following link is to a spreadsheet download of the continuing play table. It will allow subscribers to sort the data for your personal investment use. This is a service to our subscribers only, and no other use of the information is authorized. Simply click on the link, enter your username and password, and download the spreadsheet. http://investmenthouse.com/daily/table.php You will need your password. If you need help click on this link and our automated system will email it to you immediately once you fill in your email address: http://www.investmenthouse.com/rescue/rescue.php3 LEGEND FOR CONTINUING PLAY TABLE DATE: date play first appeared on report. PLAY: Denotes the type of pattern or play. Upside play types: Asc Tri=Ascending triangle; BO=Breakout; Cup=Cup base; Cup hdl=Cup w/handle; DB hdl=Double bottom w/handle; Dbl btm=Double bottom; Flat=Flat base; FlyPlat=Flying Plateau; Pennant=Pennant; Rv H&S=Reverse head & shoulders; Saucer=Saucer base; Test 18=Testing 18 day MVA; Test 50=Testing 50 day MVA; Test BO=Testing the breakout (could be 10 day MVA test, etc.) Downside play types: CCall=Covered Call; Dsc Tri=Descending triangle; Dbl Top=Double top; H&S=Head & shoulders; Put (generic downside); PIVOT=Buy point Tgt=Target stock price for the play. Applies to stock and options. Vol=Volume for the most recent session. TgtV=Target volume to enter the play. Stop=Stop advisory point. This is advisory and we may or may not exit a play if it hits this level depending upon market conditions. PLAY STATUS: Buy not hit (stock has not hit buy point); Buy not issued (stock has hit buy point but did not enter due to weak volume, poor intraday action, poor market action); Current (ongoing play already entered); Entered today (entered the play that session); Exited (closed the position); Target hit (play hit initial target; will note if took all or partial gain or let run further); Trailing stop (exited using a trailing stop loss).
Upside Plays
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
ALAN 06/17 Cup 1.54 -0.06 1.66 2.08 199K 1.7M 1.46
Current. Pullback holding above the 18 day MVA on low volume. Still in good shape, but needs to continue to rebound from here.
AME 06/07 Cup hdl 30.74 +0.24 28.01 32.25 296K 300K 29.71
Current. Moving up the 10 day MVA on lower, but still above average volume. Came off the day's high of 31.10. Trying to break through resistance at 31. Showing to be solid stock in this market
ANF 06/03 Cup hdl 36.62 -0.38 37.12 42.75 1.7M 2.7M 37.49
Current. Held the 50 day MA again after gapping lower Thursday
on retail sales results. Still giving it a chance to
rebound from this gap lower. A test of 37.60 that fails
is a sell.
APCS 07/08 Cup hdl 7.73 -0.01 8.04 9.65 1.6M 2.3M 7.48
Buy Not Hit. Testing support at 7.51 at the intraday low and rallied back on lower, but average volume. Still in the pattern.
BEAV 06/16 Cup hdl 6.94 -0.22 7.24 8.74 148K 300K 7.24
Current. Ease back testing the 50 day MVA intraday and rallied back on very low volume. Looking for a bounce off the 50 day MVA for at a minimum a better exit point.
BID 05/29 Cup hdl 16.35 +0.52 15.39 18.48 384K 465K 15.82
Current. Tapped 15.69 at the intraday low and rallied back for a nice move recovering most of yesterday's loss on lower, but average volume.
BLUD 05/18 Test BO 31.69 -0.27 27.49 32 419K 500K 31.04
Current. Gapped up at the open, but gave it back holding above the 10 day MVA on stronger above average volume. Making a lateral move.
CACS 07/01 Dbl btm 13.1 -0.34 13.94 17.25 819K 484K 12.96
Current. Pullback testing the 18 day MVA intraday and rallied back holding just above support on stronger above average volume. Testing the break out. Stock will need to hold here and rebound or will look to exit.
CD 07/08 Cup hdl 24.61 -0.33 25.24 29.24 6.2M 4.5M 23.94
Buy Not Hit. Pullback on lower, but still above average volume. Still managed to retain some of the gain from Thursday's break out move. Still in good shape.
CPRT 06/15 FlyPlat 25.11 +0.32 26 30.48 615K 1.1M 24.98
Current. Moving up showing a tight doji on the 18 day MVA on lower, below average volume. Needs to continue to rebound or will look to drop.
CSTR 06/09 Cup hdl 20.75 +0.15 19.55 22.48 98K 738K 20.38
Tested the 18 day MVA intraday as stock moves up holding below the 10 day MVA on lower, below average volume. Trying to recover, after testing the 18 day MVA on higher volume. Needs to continue to rebound or will look to drop.
DPTR 06/19 Dbl btm 14.35 -0.14 14.88 17.68 381K 634K 13.94
Current. Pullback testing the 10 day MVA and rallied back on lower, below average volume. Still in uptrend making higher lows.
EBAY 03/06 Flat 83.78 +0.13 71.78 82.25 8.9M 10M 88.65
Current. Tried to hold the 50 day MA again after gapping lower Thursday on YHOO news. Strong stock still giving it a chance to
rebound from this gap lower.
EBAY 12/12 Test 18 83.78 +0.13 34.72 46 8.9M 12M 88.65
Current.
EBAY 10/15 Test 50 83.78 +0.13 31.22 46 8.9M 12M 88.65
Current.
ECIL 07/06 Cup hdl 6.85 +0.08 7.12 8.55 287K 469K 6.65
Buy Not Hit. Tapped 6.72 at the intraday low and rallied back holding above the 10 day MVA on lower, below average volume. Trying to break through resistance at 7.
IGL 06/28 Cup hdl 13.8 +0.18 13.98 16.75 604K 1.6M 13.15
Buy Not Hit. Moving up after testing the 18 day MVA on low volume. In good shape making higher lows
IT 06/30 Cup hdl 12.9 +0.12 13.49 16.19 331K 574K 12.75
Buy Not Hit. Gapped up at the open, but gave some of it back holding just above the 18 day MVA on rising, but still below average volume. Still in the pattern.
JCOM 07/03 Cup 27.13 +0.16 28.91 33.54 611K 1.2M 26.89
Buy Not Hit. Bounced off the 200 day MVA holding the 10 day MVA on lower, but average volume. Needs to break through resistance here.
LMT 07/07 DB hdl 53.99 +0.69 53.34 60 2M 2.1M 52.22
Current. Continue with uptrend on much lower, but average volume. Very strong stock.
MCH 07/07 Asc Tri 16.74 -0.12 17.38 20.85 238K 1.2M 16.55
Buy Not Hit. Pullback holding the 18 day MVA on very low volume. Still in the pattern.
MEOH 06/03 Cup hdl 13.61 +0.01 13.08 15.78 70K 379K 13.12
Current. Managing to retain most of the stocks gain on low volume.
NAVR 04/09 Flat 13.41 +0.07 7.43 9.12 245K 733K 13.22
Current. Making a lateral move on the 18 day MVA on low volume after testing the 50 day MVA.
NCOG 06/05 Cup hdl 26.48 +0.33 25.48 30 102K 248K 25.88
Current. Moving up on low volume after testing the 10 day MVA. Solid stock.
PLLL 07/08 Test BO 5.09 +0.07 5.21 625 211K 274K 4.88
Buy Not Hit. Bounced off the 18 day MVA for a nice move on stronger, but only slightly above average volume. Moving up on rising volume after testing the 18 day MVA.
PTEK 06/29 Asc Tri 11.8 +0.08 11.81 13.88 361K 1M 11.48
Current. Moving up the 10 day MVA on low volume. Looking for a decisive move with more volume before we will enter the play.
SAFC 07/06 Cup hdl 44.75 +0.77 44.68 49.75 749K 750K 43.22
Buy Not Issued. Tested the 10 day MVA intraday and rallied back for a nice gain on stronger, but average volume. Still a buy if continues to move on strong volume.
SBUX 07/30 Cup 45.66 +0.51 30.35 36.75 2.6M 6M 44.25
Current. Still in uptrend.
SBUX 07/01 Cup 45.66 +0.51 26.3 30.94 2.6M 6M 44.25
Current.
SMRT 05/18 DB hdl 16.36 +0.6 14.98 17.75 387K 337K 16.05
Current. Tapped 15.53 at the low and rallied back holding above the 10 day MVA on lower, but still strong volume. Still in good shape.
TLCV 06/30 Cup hdl 11.11 +0.11 11.94 14.32 539K 928K 11.11
Buy Not Issued. Tested the simple 50 day MVA and rallied back holding just under the 18 day MVA on rising, but average volume. Stock needs to continue to rebound or will look to drop.
VLTS 06/23 Test BO 8.28 +0.65 7.34 9.12 522K 150K 7.55
Another explosive move on very strong volume surge.
WMB 05/04 Cup hdl 12.19 +0.15 11.08 13.25 1.5M 5.4M 11.88
Current. Bounced off the 18 day MVA for a nice move on lower, below average volume. Still in uptrend.
ZEUS 05/27 DB hdl 17.45 -0.55 14.17 17.18 182K 253K 18.08
Trailing Stop. Fell below the 18 day MVA on lower, below average volume.
Downside Plays
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
SSNC 07/03 Put 15.9 -0.37 17.65 15.62 204K 275K 17.05
Target Hit. Nice move down taking our money off the table on rising, but below average volume.
TELK 07/07 Put 21.9 +0.07 22.45 20.35 424K 825K 22.65
Current. Relief rally showing a doji on very low volume. Beginning a lateral move.
Good Investing! Jon L. Johnson and The Daily Staff All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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