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stock recommendation, stock pick
Begin part 2 of 2
Economic Calendar
These are consensus expectations. Our expectations will vary and are discussed in the 'Economy' section.
July 26
Existing Home Sales, June (10:00): +2.1% (6.95M) actual, versus 6.65M expected and 6.80M prior.
July 27
Consumer Confidence, July (10:00): 106.1 actual versus 102.0 expected and 102.8 prior (revised from 101.9)
New Home Sales, June (10:00): 1326K actual versus 1261K expected and 1337K prior (revised from 1369K)
July 28
Durable Orders, June (8:30): 0.7% actual versus 1.5% expected and -0.9 prior (revised from -1.8%)
July 29
Employment Cost Index, Q2 (8:30): 0.9% actual versus 0.9% expected and 1.1% prior
Initial Claims, 07/23 (8:30): 345K actual versus 340K expected and 341K prior (revised from 339K)
Help-Wanted Index, June (10:00): 38 actual versus 40 expected and 39 prior
July 30
GDP-Adv., Q2 (8:30): 3.7% expected and 3.9% prior
Chain Deflator-Adv., Q2 (8:30): 3.0% expected and 2.9% prior
Michigan Sentiment-Rev., July (9:45): 96.2 expected and 96.0
Chicago PMI, July (10:00): 60.0 expected and 56.4 prior
THE PLAYS
Good moves Thursday: CNCT; ESL; PLLL; SYMC; SSP
NEW PLAYS:
Downside:
Play Date: 07/29/2004
EBAY (Ebay--$79.47; +0.68; optionable): Internet auctions, sales
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/ebay.html
STATUS: Put. A leader up until July, EBAY sold off on the YHOO earnings, gapped below the 50 day EMA (82.41) and then tried to recover. It failed, tanking to the 200 day SMA (70.61). It has rebounded this week on mixed volume, stalling below the 18 day EMA (80.63) on lower, below average volume. A market leader, but it has had a long run and needs to base. Looking to pick up a nice gain as it fades back down toward the 200 day to continue its base.
Volume: 8.605M Avg Volume: 9.657M
BUY POINT: $78.77 Volume=10M Target=$74.68 Stop=$80.68
POSITION: XBA UP - Sept. $80p (-51 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ebay.html
Upside:
Play Date: 07/29/2004
SNDK (Sandisk--$24.20; +0.50; optionable): Data storage devices (digital camera cards)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sndk.html
STATUS: 50 day EMA test. SNDK has been in a pretty harsh downtrend since November, but with its last earnings report on 7-15 it gapped easily over the 50 day EMA (23) on strong volume. Since then as the market sold SNDK moved laterally over the 50 day on lower, below average volume. Nice tight range with money flow moving higher ahead of price. Looks ready to make a run higher off the bottom of its base.
Volume: 6.589M Avg Volume: 7.838M
BUY POINT: $24.62 Volume=8M Target=$28 Stop=$23.38
POSITION: SWQ JE - Oct. $25c (48 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/sndk.html
CONTINUING PLAY TABLE:
* * SPREADSHEET DOWNLOAD * * *
The following link is to a spreadsheet download of the continuing play table. It will allow subscribers to sort the data for your personal investment use. This is a service to our subscribers only, and no other use of the information is authorized. Simply click on the link, enter your username and password, and download the spreadsheet!
http://www.technicaltraders.com/ttr/table.php
You will need your password. If you need help click on this link and our automated system will email it to you immediately once you fill in your email address:
http://www.investmenthouse.com/rescue/rescue.php3
LEGEND
DATE: date play first appeared on report.
PLAY: Denotes the type of pattern or play.
Upside play types: Asc Tri=Ascending triangle/wedge; BO=Breakout; Cup=Cup base; Cup hdl=Cup w/handle; DB hdl=Double bottom w/handle; Dbl btm=Double bottom; Flat=Flat base; FlyPlat=Flying Plateau; Pennant=Pennant; Rv H&S=Reverse head & shoulders; Saucer=Saucer base; Test 18=Testing 18 day MVA; Test 50=Testing 50 day MVA; Test BO=Testing the breakout (could be 10 day MVA test, etc.)
Downside play types: CCall=Covered Call; Dsc Tri=Descending triangle/wedge; Dbl Top=Double top; H&S=Head & shoulders; Put (generic downside);
PIVOT=Buy point
Tgt=Target stock price for the play. Applies to stock and options.
Vol=Volume for the most recent session.
TgtV=Target volume to enter the play.
Stop=Stop advisory point. This is advisory and we may or may not exit a play if it hits this level depending upon market conditions.
Upside Plays
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
AEOS 07/27 Flat 32.36 +0.44 31.18 36.32 2.6M 2.3M 29.88
Current.
CHIC 07/13 Test BO 20.84 +0.55 21.44 24.84 190K 617K 19.62
Current.
CHIC 06/01 Test BO 20.84 +0.55 19.02 22 190K 375K 19.62
Current.
CNCT 07/28 Cup hdl 27.28 +4.06 25.55 27.28 3.4M 960K 25.94
Entered today.
COL 07/17 Test BO 34.46 +0.54 34.77 39 1.3M 600K 33.22
Buy Not Issued.
CRDN 07/19 Test 18 37.72 +1.32 37.42 42.95 443K 1.2M 35.42
Buy Not Issued.
DGII 07/24 Cup hdl 10.95 -0.39 11.65 13.98 133K 200K 10.83
Buy Not Hit.
DUSA 07/22 Test 50 9.99 +0.08 11.06 13 153K 320K 10.29
Buy Not Hit.
ESL 07/24 Cup hdl 31.7 +0.82 30.88 35.22 179K 150K 29.58
Current.
GENZ 07/20 Rv H&S 51.63 +0.06 51.72 57.88 2.7M 3.2M 48.22
Buy Not Issued.
IFIN 07/26 Test BO 45.41 +1.09 44.88 51.42 763K 850K 43.48
Buy Not Issued.
JAKK 07/15 Test 50 19.99 +0.28 19.54 23.62 191K 493K 19.24
Current.
JWN 07/27 Test BO 45.4 +0.4 44.63 50 879K 1.6M 42.88
Current.
NLS 07/27 Test BO 18.54 +0.08 19.06 22.38 288K 750K 18.18
Buy Not Hit.
PLLL 07/08 Test BO 5.62 +0.18 5.29 6.35 284K 274K 5.35
Current.
PTEK 06/29 Asc Tri 11.13 +0.05 11.81 13.88 1.2M 1M 11.48
Exited.
RI 07/21 Test BO 29.04 +0.4 29.84 33 461K 622K 28.72
Buy Not Hit.
RIMM 07/17 Test 50 61.76 -0.46 62.72 72 5.6M 11M 59.22
Buy Not Hit.
ROP 07/12 Test BO 53.95 -0.62 55.48 60.54 248K 255K 53.89
Buy Not Issued.
SOSA 07/15 Cup hdl 3.41 -0.08 3.48 4.38 453K 500K 3.39
Current.
SYMC 07/26 Dbl btm 46.31 +1.35 44.42 49.55 6.1M 7.8M 43.05
Current.
TTEC 07/14 Cup 8.85 +0.1 9.25 11.88 120K 396K 8.51
Buy Not Hit.
WSO 07/28 DB hdl 28.65 -0.2 29.76 34 69K 150K 27.72
Buy Not Hit.
Downside Plays
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
BDX 07/10 Put 47.09 +0.09 47.79 44.68 1M 1M 47.55
Current.
BRLI 07/22 Put 12.74 +0.2 12.21 10.68 106K 280K 12.56
Buy Not Issued. Rallied holding above the 18 day MVA on rising volume. The stock has not performed so will drop.
BSX 07/28 Put 37.27 +0.74 35.97 32.88 6.1M 9.8M 36.82
Buy Not Hit.
COO 07/26 Put 57.3 +0.77 54.95 52.45 3.1M 350K 55.55
Buy Not Issued. Tapped 53.19 at the low and rallied back holding resistance at the 18 day MVA on very strong volume surge. The stock has not performed so will drop.
CRL 07/17 Put 45.11 +2.36 43.55 41.52 2M 675K 43.71
Exited.
ESI 07/24 Put 32.48 +0.48 32.79 29.75 621K 875K 32.97
Current.
LEA 07/07 Put 55.8 -0.15 57.15 54.35 589K 550K 57.06
Current.
LM 07/21 Put 79.43 +1.1 77.25 73.12 467K 642K 80.29
Current.
MXIM 07/24 Put 48.16 +1.43 47.15 44.06 5.3M 6M 48.31
Current.
OSIP 07/26 Put 59.03 -0.12 54.05 50.06 1.2M 4M 55.02
Buy Not Issued.
OVTI 07/21 Put 11.51 +0.49 11.48 9.44 3.5M 6M 12.53
Current.
SSP 07/13 Put 101.7 -1.1 103 100 146K 188K 104.33
Current.
SSYS 07/19 Put 26.11 +2.96 22.68 20.12 913K 300K 24.2
Buy Not Issued. Gapped up at the open and exploded higher. Stock did not make the move we expected so will drop.
XL 07/28 Put 71.2 +0.12 70.95 68.45 1.2M 1M 71.88
Buy Not Hit.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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stock recommendation
stock pick
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