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us stock market, stock split
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good moves Thursday: CCBI; CNCT; FAST; FLIR; MSA; VLO; OCLR
In each report we prepare full write-ups for those plays that look ready to move. Those that have made the move or are still setting up are discussed in the continuing play table. The purpose is to focus on those stocks that are set to make us money.
NEW PLAYS:
New Pre-Splits Plays:
Play Date: 07/29/2004
IMGC (Intermagnetics General--$37.05; +0.77; optionable): Industrial equipment. Splits 3:2 on 8-18-04
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/imgc.html
STATUS: Flying plateau. After bursting higher out of a 5 month base in May, IMGC is making its second breakout test, coming back to the 18 day EMA (35.58) on lower volume. Well, it is actually moving laterally the past two weeks as the 18 day EMA comes up to meet it. That typically sets off the next move. Looks solid. Just needs some volume.
Volume: 91.807K Avg Volume: 137.616K
BUY POINT: $37.75 Volume=206K Target=$42.72 Stop=$35.42
POSITION: IMG JG - Oct. $35c (70 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/imgc.html
New Post-Split Plays:
Play Date: 07/29/2004
CEC (CEC Entertainment--$36.10; +0.20; optionable): Children's restaurants
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cec.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Moving laterally on lower and lower below average volume as it holds a tight range over the 10 day EMA (35.22), forming the handle to its 19 week base. Strong 5 to 2 accumulation in the base (5 up price weeks on rising volume to 2 down price weeks on rising volume), showing net buyers moving into the stock in the pattern. Outstanding earnings reported earlier this month bolted it higher in the base; there is a lot of money in those Saturday and Sunday birthday parties where the kids go to see the rat (some say it is a mouse; it looks like a rat to me). Money flow is shooting higher ahead of stock. Just lookgin for the next breakout.
Volume: 313.8K Avg Volume: 447.517K
BUY POINT: $36.62 Volume=671K Target=$36.88 Stop=$35.04
POSITION: CECL LG - Dec. $35c (65 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cec.htm
Play Date: 07/29/2004
SNDK (Sandisk--$24.20; +0.50; optionable): Data storage devices (digital camera cards)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sndk.html
STATUS: 50 day EMA test. SNDK has been in a pretty harsh downtrend since November, but with its last earnings report on 7-15 it gapped easily over the 50 day EMA (23) on strong volume. Since then as the market sold SNDK moved laterally over the 50 day on lower, below average volume. Nice tight range with money flow moving higher ahead of price. Looks ready to make a run higher off the bottom of its base.
Volume: 6.589M Avg Volume: 7.838M
BUY POINT: $24.62 Volume=8M Target=$28 Stop=$23.38
POSITION: SWQ JE - Oct. $25c (48 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/sndk.html
New Leader Plays:
Play Date: 07/29/2004
LEG (Leggett & Platt--$26.79; +0.52; optionable): Bedding, retail fixtures, etc.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/leg.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Working laterally for the past 6 weeks in a flat base over the 18 day EMA (26.27) after blasting higher in mid-June out of 4.5 month base. Excellent 8 to 3 accumulation in the base as set up the move, and now this lateral move on low volume is setting up the next break higher. Outstanding money flow and relative strength is ready to breakout with the stock, a good corroboration of the move.
Volume: 596.6K Avg Volume: 725.713K
BUY POINT: $27.12 Volume=950K Target=$30.22 Stop=$26.05
POSITION: LEG LE - Dec. $25c (76 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/leg.html
Continuing Leader Plays:
Play Date: 07/27/2004
HYC (Hypercom--$7.93; +0.2; optionable): Business equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hyc.html
STATUS: 50 day EMA test. Still working in a nice handle that has formed to the 11 week base it broke out of in late June. It is using the 50 day EMA (7.63) as support on this low volume pullback. Volume was up some Thursday but still below average. Excellent 5 to 1 accumulation in the base is showed net buyers in the base and has set up a solid foundation. Very strong money flow is moving up ahead of price. Just looking for strong volume as it makes the break higher.
Volume: 203.1K Avg Volume: 303.928K
BUY POINT: $8.15 Volume=433K Target=$9.78 Stop=$7.58
POSITION: HYC LU - Dec. $7.50c (65 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/hyc.html
Play Date: 07/26/2004
IFIN (Investors Financial Services--$45.41; +1.09; optionable): Asset management
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/ifin.html
STATUS: Breakout test. IFIN was up Thursday, moving through the buy point but on volume that was not quite there, coming in at average. Still a very solid pattern, breakout and test. It just needs more volume to give it that breakaway move. Nice 25 week reverse head and shoulders base sporting excellent accumulation at 9 to 3.
Volume: 763.155K Avg Volume: 790.773K
BUY POINT: New: $45.65 (orig. $44.88) Volume=850K Target=$51.42 Stop=$43.48
POSITION: FLQ JI - Oct. $45c (45 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ifin.html
Play Date: 07/24/2004
OPTN (Option Care--$17; +0.46; optionable): Home health care
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/o/optn.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Volume eased Wednesday and Thursday as OPTN continues to hold over the 18 day EMA (16.48) as it tests the breakout from a nice 10 week cup with handle base. Looked as if it was going to take off Tuesday, but then throttled back. Still looks super, just waiting to continue the breakout move. Accumulation in the base is an outstanding 6 to 0 (6 up price weeks on rising volume to 0 down price weeks on rising volume) and soaring money flow.
Volume: 81.739K Avg Volume: 137.254K
BUY POINT: $17.55 Volume=175K Target=$21 Stop=$16.71
POSITION: UOC JW - Oct. $17.50c (51 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/optn.html
Continuing Downside:
Play Date: 07/28/2004
BSX (Boston Scientific--$37.27; +0.74; optionable): Medical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bsx.html
STATUS: Put. Still struggling, gaining back some ground Thursday, but on low, below average volume. It is still below the 18 day EMA (37.75), continuing to struggle after gapping below the 200 day SMA (38.98) two weeks back on stint application trouble. It tanked further then rebounded this week. Volume has faded as it has tried to move back up. Looking for it to roll back down on volume as it moves toward the recent low at 31.85.
Volume: 6.197M Avg Volume: 6.764M
BUY POINT: $35.97 Volume=9.8M Target=$32.88 Stop=$36.82
POSITION: BSX UU - Sept. $37.50p (-58 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/bsx.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
Current Pre-Announcement Plays: In each report we look at the candidates that are in the best patterns ahead of their potential announcements. This focus on leaders in good patterns allows us to make good money even if companies do not announce the split, something that they are still gun-shy of even after the market has made a good recovery as well as the economy. The key with splits now is in the pattern; yes there is a positive move on the announcement, but stocks in this market need to have a good pattern of accumulation to really benefit from a split announcement.
AET: Forecast 7-29-04. Broke down ahead of the date. Reported good earnings today but no split yet.
AHC: Forecast 7-28-04 before the open. Did not join its oil and gas brethren with a split, but it is moving higher in gaps, making it hard to get in.
BLL: Forecast 7-29-04. Announced the split and is making a nice comeback.
CVX: Forecast 7-28-04. Also announced its split ans is moving higher.
DAKT: Forecast 8-18-04.
FDX: Forecast 9-22-04.
HUG: Forecast 8-24-04 after the close.
KMRT: Forecast 8-26-04
NMGA: Forecast 9-7-04 after the close.
SBUX: Researching the next date but continues to run higher up the 10 day EMA.
SCSC: Forecast 8-12-04. Trying to form up again for another move.
TUES: Forecast 10-5-04
UOPX: Researching the next date.
WFMI: Forecast 7-28-94 after the market closes. Did not give us the entry point. Just as well as they aren't selling as much what juice or whatever, and the estimates for the coming quarter were lower though for its fiscal year they affirmed them.
Full Write-ups: We do not cover all candidates in full in each report, but focus on those ready to make a move or are right at their forecast announcement date. This way we are focused on those stocks ready to make moves.
Continuing Pre-Announcement Plays:
Play Date: 07/27/2004
TUES (Tuesday Morning--$32.31; -0.43; optionable): Discount variety store. Forecast to announce a split on 10-5-04 in conjunction with earnings. The company cannot confirm this date at this time.
BACKGROUND: It does not appear that TUES has ever split its stock. The annual shareholder meeting was on 5-18-04 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tues.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Still working in the handle to its 15 week base, holding over the 18 day EMA (32.21) on low, below average volume. Accumulation in the base is a solid 4 to 2 (4 up price weeks on rising volume to 2 down price weeks on rising volume), showing us that money has moved into the stock during the base. Money flow is solid, moving ahead of price. Again, just need to be patient and let the stock show us the high volume breakout.
Volume: 255.032K Avg Volume: 362.32K
BUY POINT: $33.55 Volume=510K Target=$38.38 Stop=$31.05
POSITION: UUG LF - Dec. $30c (76 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/tues.html
POST-SPLIT PLAYS
Play Date: 07/08/2004
AMHC (American Healthways--$27.16; +0.68; optionable): Health services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/amhc.html
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. AMHC continues to tantalize us moving laterally over the 18 day EMA (26.25) as it completes the right shoulder to its 20 week base. The range is tight in the right shoulder, and money flow continues to surge higher ahead of the price. Just waiting for it to make the breakout move from a solid pattern.
Volume: 387.578K Avg Volume: 511.645K
BUY POINT: $27.62 Volume=705K Target=$33 Stop=$26.04
POSITION: QMH KE - Nov. $25c (67 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/amhc.html
Play Date: 07/22/2004
NIHD (NII Hldgs--$37.88; +0.16; optionable): Wireless telecom
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nihd.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. On the edged of making the breakaway move, but not quite getting the volume to do it. Still a nice 13 week base with money flow running higher ahead of price. Solid 5 to 3 accumulation in the base. Looks ready to go. Again, it just needs some volume.
Volume: 697.406K Avg Volume: 877.019K
BUY POINT: New: $38.06 (orig. $37.32) Volume=1M Target=$43.35 Stop=$35.22
POSITION: QHQ LF - Dec. $35c (66 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/nihd.html
Play Date: 07/17/2004
RIMM (Research in Motion--$61.76; -0.46; optionable): Telecom, blackberries
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/rimm.html
STATUS: 50 day EMA test. Waiting, waiting, waiting. RIMM gave up the 50 day EMA, then took it back. Looked ready to move, then stalled out Thursday. At least volume was lower and it held right at the 10 day EMA on the close. Money flow continues to move higher ahead of price. That is what keeps us watching it closely for the next move. it can race when it finally starts.
Volume: 5.646M Avg Volume: 8.039M
BUY POINT: $63.35 Volume=11M Target=$72 Stop=$63.55
POSITION: RUP IM - Sept. $65c (48 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/rimm.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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us stock market
stock split
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