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us stock market, trade stock
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good moves Thursday: EDMC; ELAB; NOC
In each report we prepare full write-ups for those plays that look ready to move. Those that have made the move or are still setting up are discussed in the continuing play table. The purpose is to focus on those stocks that are set to make us money.
NEW PLAYS:
New Downside:
Play Date: 08/12/2004
CNF (CNF Transportation--$39.83; -1.22; optionable): Trucking
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cnf.html
STATUS: Put. After triple topping from late June to early August, CNF broke below the 50 day EMA (40.18) last week on strong trade. It climbed back over that level on lower and lower volume, but then reversed course Thursday on rising trade (though still below average). Looking to catch this one on its first big run lower.
Volume: 362.2K Avg Volume: 406.59K
BUY POINT: $39.72 Volume=465K Target=$37.65 Stop=$40.29
POSITION: CNF UH - Sept. $40p (-51 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cnf.html
Play Date: 08/12/2004
MTD (Mettler Toledo--$41.92; -1.23; optionable): Scientific & technical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mtd.html
STATUS: Put. Massive gap through the 200 day SMA (43.62) in late July. It mounted a rally back to that level, surging through it Tuesday, but then falling back to close. It waffled Wednesday and then started back down Thursday on rising volume. Under distribution and money flow in the tank. Ready to jump in on a further volume move lower.
Volume: 389.8K Avg Volume: 248.5K
BUY POINT: $41.79 Volume=350K Target=$29.15 Stop=$42.45
POSITION: MTD VI - Oct. $45p (-78 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/mtd.html
New Leader Plays: May not be ready for a split but leading stocks in position to move.
Play Date: 08/12/2004
MET (Metlife--$35.89; -0.24; optionable): Life insurance
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/met.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Seems boring, but MET is truly in a position of market leadership with an excellent 18 week base that will produce a new all-time high on a breakout. Accumulation is also excellent at 4 to 1 (4 up price weeks on rising volume to 1 down price week on rising volume), showing us that money has moved into the stock during the base. The pattern used the 200 day SMA (34.21) as support on the lower legs, a key support level. Excellent handle forming over the 50 day EMA (35.23) with money flow racing higher. Volume surged Thursday as the stock ran in place. That is a 'get ready' spike that we have seen on several occasions in the handle to the base. Those typically appear before a breakout move.
Volume: 2.892M Avg Volume: 1.632M
BUY POINT: $36.58 Volume=2.5M Target=$41 Stop=$35.38
POSITION: MET LG - Dec. $35c (73 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/met.html
Continuing Leader Plays:
Play Date: 08/10/2004
UTHR (United Therapeutics--$28.11; +0.1; optionable): Drugs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/u/uthr.html
After Hours: $28.14
STATUS: Breakout test. Looked ready to make the breakout Thursday, rallying to 29.22 on the high but then reversing to give most of the move back. Still held the 10 day EMA (27.82) on the pullback, and still in very good shape to continue the breakout move. UTHR exploded from an 11 month ascending triangle to start the month, rallying over 30 from 25 in the initial breakout run. Volume was tremendous as it made the surge. Accumulation in the last part of that long base (May to July, a short double bottom) was a solid 4 to 2. It has made the test of the 10 day EMA and looks ready to go.
Volume: 475.959K Avg Volume: 383.636K
BUY POINT: $28.35 Volume=559K Target=$34 Stop=$27.65
POSITION: FUH KF - Nov. $30c (42 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/uthr.html
Continuing Downside:
Play Date: 08/11/2004
TLM (Talisman Energy--$22.26; +0.27; optionable): Independent oil and gas
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tlm.html
STATUS: Put. TLM continues to struggle at the 50 day EMA (22.27) on strong, above average volume. It peaked in early August and fell on very strong trade after a short double top. Being patient and letting it make the clear breakdown. Then we move in.
Volume: 553.1K Avg Volume: 398.09K
BUY POINT: $21.84 Volume=450K Target=$20.31 Stop=$22.22
POSITION: TLM VX - Oct. $22.50p (-59 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/tlm.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
Current Pre-Announcement Plays: In each report we look at the candidates that are in the best patterns ahead of their potential announcements. This focus on leaders in good patterns allows us to make good money even if companies do not announce the split. The key with splits is the pattern. Still gat positive moves on the announcement, but stocks in this market need to have a good pattern of accumulation to really benefit from a split announcement.
AET: Still pinpointing a date. Looks very good.
AHC: No split 7-28-04. And still struggling at the 50 day EMA in its test..
DAKT: Forecast 8-18-04. Holding the 200 day SMA, but that is about all.
FDX: Forecast 9-22-04. Taking a turn for the worse below the 50 day EMA.
HUG: Forecast 8-24-04 after the close. Hanging on at the 50 day EMA for now. Needs to shape up better.
KMRT: Forecast 8-26-04. Looks more like a put at this juncture, but giving it time to shape back up.
MBT: Holding up well despite the market selling.
NMGA: Forecast 9-7-04 after the close. Diving lower on strong volume.
PENN: Researching to pinpoint a date. Has muddied up. Just waiting for it to form up.
ROP: Forecast 8-18-04. Needs more help.
SBUX: Researching the next date. Rolled back through the 50 day EMA on an above average volume surge.
SCSC: Forecast 8-12-04. Tested it and kissed it goodbye.
UTX: Forecast 10-20-04. Holding the 50 day EMA on continued below average volume.
Full Write-ups: We do not cover all candidates in full in each report, but focus on those ready to make a move or are right at their forecast announcement date. This way we are focused on those stocks ready to make moves.
New Pre-Announcement Plays:
Play Date: 08/11/2004
AET (Aetna--$89.60; -0.03; optionable): Health care. Researching to pinpoint the exact date.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/aet.html
After Hours: $89.30
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Volume jumped higher and AET looked to be on the move again, but the market selling took the wind out of the move. Still in very good shape, holding its own while the market burned around it. Excellent 18 week base sporting strong 7 to 3 accumulation, showing net buyers moving into the stock during the base. Money flow continues to run higher ahead of price. Relative strength continues its breakout, a very good corroboration of the move. May ease back a bit but just looking for it to run again on continued solid volume.
Volume: 3.133M Avg Volume: 1.42M
BUY POINT: $89.84 Volume=1.8M Target=$96 Stop=$88.72
POSITION: AET JR - Oct. $90c (51 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/aet.html
Play Date: 08/12/2004
PDCO (Patterson Dental--$75.45; -0.31; optionable): Medical equipment. Forecast August 26 before the market opens.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for 1 split on 6-13-00 in conjunction with a board meeting. The stock price was $53. The annual shareholder meeting was on 9-8-803 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pdco.html
After Hours: $75.36
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Working in a two week handle to its 16 week base. Very similar pattern to MET, using the 200 day SMA (70.19) as support for the last leg in the base. Accumulation is positive at 4 to 3, showing net buyers of the stock during the base. Has received some good analyst upgrades the past few weeks, showing there is good institutional support. Volume has surged since late July. Excellent relative strength is making the breakout ahead of price. Looking for volume to kick even higher as it makes the breakout move.
Volume: 471.335K Avg Volume: 465.318K
BUY POINT: $77.02 Volume=698K Target=$83 Stop=$76.34
POSITION: DOU AO - Jan. $75c (58 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/pdco.html
Continuing Pre-Announcement Plays:
Play Date: 08/07/2004
MBT (Mobile Telesys--$117.6; +2; optionable): Russian wireless services. Announced earnings in June. Researching next date, but wanted it on as it is getting ready to run.
BACKGROUND: A new issue in 2001, MBT has yet to announce its first split. It made us money last year on its run and now it is setting up again.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mbt.html
STATUS: Cup. MBT is moving along at its own pace, holding up at the 50 day EMA (117.19) as volume jumps above average. Continues working on the 17 week base, and we continue to be patient, waiting for the strong move. Money flow continues to edge higher ahead of price. Still sleeping right now, but the volume indicates it may be waking up. Excellent risk/reward position.
Volume: 393.2K Avg Volume: 283.318K
BUY POINT: $121.65 Volume=500K Target=$135 Stop=$116.95
POSITION: MBT LE - Dec. $125c (48 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/mbt.html
PRE-SPLIT PLAYS
Play Date: 08/03/2004
BAC (Bank of America--$85.31; -0.22; optionable): Big banks
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bac.html
STATUS: 50 day EMA test. Took a breather on lower volume Thursday, still holding up as the market sells, working in its 7 week flat base. Good move Tuesday and Wednesday, taking a breather Thursday. After this rest that may last through Friday, looking for it go continue the stronger move. Relative strength continues to breakout ahead of the stock. Really strong here but needs to show some more volume on its next big price move.
Volume: 3.766M Avg Volume: 5.062M
BUY POINT: New: $86.05 (orig. $85.05) Volume=6M Target=$90.55 Stop=$83.88
POSITION: BAC KQ - Nov. $85c (64 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/bac.html
POST-SPLIT PLAYS
Play Date: 08/10/2004
SYMC (Symantec--$45.71; -0.44; optionable): Internet software and servics
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/symc.html
After Hours: $45.75
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Continues to work on the handle to its 15 week base, holding over the 18 day EMA (44.99), tapping that level on the intraday lows and rebounding. A very well formed pattern with surging money flow. We like that it is going about its business without paying attention to the market. A very strong looking pattern, and if it gets a chance, it is ready for a breakout.
Volume: 3.383M Avg Volume: 5.061M
BUY POINT: $47.35 Volume=7.6M Target=$53.38 Stop=$44.65
POSITION: SYQ JI - Oct. $45c (65 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/symc.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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