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us stock market, stock split
Begin part 2 of 2
Support and Resistance
NASDAQ: Closed at 1757.22
Resistance:
The 10 day EMA at 1800
Gap down point at 1822.
The October 2002/March 2003 up trendline at 1826
The 18 day EMA at 1830 is going to be strong resistance.
1830 - 1850 (July lows) and the May 2004 lows (1876 closing, 1865 intraday) may prove to be some resistance.
The March 2004 lows (1897 - 1989)
The 50 day EMA at 1925 is key resistance.
The 2004 down trendline at 1946
The 200 day SMA at 1977
Support:
July 2003 highs at 1755 trying to hold.
Late July 2003 top at 1735.
June 2003 intraday highs at 1686 to closing range at 1644 to 1677 (mid-July low here as well).
1600.
S&P 500: Closed at 1064.80
Resistance:
May low at 1084 (closing) to 1076 (intraday).
The 10 day EMA at 1077 to 1080 (May and July lows).
The 18 day EMA at 1085
1096 to 1100 represent price supports and the 50 day EMA (1101).
The 200 day SMA at 1109
The March/April down trendline at 1122
1125 was key price support.
1142-1146 are the June highs.
The April and January highs (1150 to 1155).
1159 (February highs) and 1160 to 1175 the highs in that double top that spanned late 2001, early 2002.
Support:
1062 - 1058 from November 2003
1048-1040 from September 2003
1010 - 1015 from June/July 2003
Dow: Closed at 9825.35
Resistance:
May low at 9852 intraday, 9906 closing; November 2003 highs: 9900 intraday, 9858 closing.
The 10 day EMA at 9927
The 18 day EMA at 9992 is a first real test.
10,000 is the March lows and a psychological level.
The 50 day EMA at 10,121.
The February/April down trendline at 10,130
The 200 day SMA at 10,239 is going to be key whenever it makes it back there.
Late April, June peaks at 10,478 to 10,512
10,570 is the early April high
Price consolidation at 10,600 level
10,747 is the February high
Support:
9625 - 9660 from September 2003.
9500 from various price points in late summer to fall 2003.
9250. More solid support from the June through August 2003 consolidation.
Economic Calendar
These are consensus expectations. Our expectations will vary and are discussed in the 'Economy' section.
August 16
NY Empire State Index, August (8:30): 32.3 expected and 36.5 prior
August 17
Housing Starts, July (8:30): 1890K expected and 1802K prior
Building Permits, July (8:30): 1950K expected and 1945K prior
CPI, July (8:30): 0.1% expected and 0.3% prior
Core CPI, July (8:30): 0 actual versus 0.2% expected and 0.1% prior (revised from 0)
Industrial Production, July (9:15): 0.5% expected and -0.3% prior
Capacity Utilization, July (9:15): 77.5% expected and 77.2% prior
August 19
Initial Jobless Claims, 08/14 (8:30): 333K prior
Leading Economic Indicators, July (10:00): 0.0% expected and -0.2% prior
Philadelphia Fed, August (12:00): 30.0 expected and 36.1 prior
THE PLAYS
Good moves Friday: STSI; CNF; IR; SCSS
Thursday night play results:
BSX: Continuing lower from the 10 day EMA.
CNF: Diving from the 50 day EMA.
ESRX: Holding at 60 but looking weak.
MCIP: Holding well, in position for the next move.
New Plays:
Downside:
Play Date: 08/14/2004
COT (Cott Corp.--$28.62; +0.36; optionable): Beverages
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cot.html
STATUS: Put. COT was cruising in a 15 month uptrend over the 50 day EMA (30.27) until it ran into trouble in late July (a familiar story for those stocks that hung on through the March drop). It plunged to the 200 day SMA (29.21), continued lower below that level, and spent the last week rallying back to test that breakdown. Volume has been low on the rebound test. It started to stall Thursday, tried a recovery Friday. Still under distribution and looking for it to turn back down on some decent volume to start the position.
Volume: 329.3K Avg Volume: 420.252K
BUY POINT: $28.39 Volume=450K Target=$26.64 Stop=$28.58
POSITION: COT VF - Oct. $30p (-74 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/cot.html
Play Date: 08/14/2004
ULTI (Ultimate Software--$10.02; -0.09; optionable): Internet software and services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/u/ulti.html
After Hours: $10.07
STATUS: Descending triangle. Taking another look at ULTI as it continues to make lower highs below a constant top at 10. There is support at that level, and that is why ULTI is holding here. A big volume spike Wednesday as ULTI traded lower; still undergoing distribution. Looking for volume to kick back in on the next move lower through the buy point.
Volume: 66.801K Avg Volume: 187.951K
BUY POINT: $9.94 Volume=200K Target=$8.85 Stop=$10.18
POSITION: JUL UB - Sept. $10p (-47 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/ulti.html
Play Date: 08/14/2004
VAR (Varian Medical Systems--$32.12; +0.10; optionable): Medical appliances
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/v/var.html
STATUS: Put. VAR made us huge money as a split play in late 2003 through April 2004, but then it peaked and rolled over. It broke the 200 day SMA (38.63) in July, a sign that the institutions were bailing on it. It has never really made an attempt to test that breakdown, instead riding down the 18 day EMA (33.09), that level acting as resistance and showing the stock's weakness. It gapped up to the 18 day EMA Friday and then rolled over; volume was not there, however. Looks ready to continue the move lower.
Volume: 725K Avg Volume: 988.044K
BUY POINT: $31.95 Volume=1.5M Target=$29.88 Stop=$32.48
POSITION: VAR UZ - Sept. $32.50p (-54 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/var.html
Upside:
Play Date: 08/14/2004
AGYS (Agilsys--$14.20; +0.57; optionable): Wholesale electronics
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/agys.html
STATUS: Breakout test. AGYS showed its strength in July. After forming a nice 22 week cup base through June, AGYS got caught in the July selling and dove below the 200 day SMA down near 12. It reported good news, however, and gapped right back over that level, not slowing down as it made the breakout from its base. It rallied to 15 on solid volume and is now coming back to test the breakout on lower and lower volume, holding the 18 day EMA (13.82) on this test. That is a classic level for stocks to hold after the breakout. Friday the stock bounced on some rising though still below average volume. Accumulation in the base is an excellent 9 up weeks on rising volume to 3 down weeks on rising volume, showing that there were net buyers during the base. Money flow is excellent, leading higher ahead of price. Looks ready to continue the breakout run.
Volume: 103.219K Avg Volume: 183.836K
BUY POINT: $14.55 Volume=276K Target=$17.25 Stop=$13.75
POSITION: OQJ AV - Jan. $12.50c (78 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/agys.html
Play Date: 08/14/2004
JUPM (Jupitermedia--$13.25; -0.30; optionable): Internet information
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/jupm.html
STATUS: Ascending base. JUPM is making a series of higher lows since April as it works on the finishing touches on its 18 week base. It has moved up to the July high, and is backing off slightly on low volume right at that level. It may ease back a bit more toward the 10 day EMA (12.72) before it is ready to go. Indeed, a higher low at that level and a rebound on stronger volume is exactly the kind of action that would indicate a breakout is ahead. Solid 5 to 3 accumulation in the base is setting up the breakout. Money flow is moving higher ahead of price, leading the way. Excellent relative strength.
Volume: 137.016K Avg Volume: 341.765K
BUY POINT: $13.92 Volume=513K Target=$16.98 Stop=$12.95
POSITION: EUU KV - Nov. $12.50c (65 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/jupm.html
Play Date: 08/14/2004
WBSN (Websense--$38.38; +3.01; optionable): Employee internet management
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wbsn.html
After Hours: $38.39
STATUS: Breakout. WBSN is making the breakout move from a short 7 week cup with handle base that caps off the breakout from a prior 17 week base in June. The stock was caught in the July selling, and that took it down toward the 200 day SMA (30.15) as the bottom of the base. Accumulation in the recent base is a solid 6 to 2, showing buyers using the dip to move in. Friday WBSN rallied on strong volume, making the breakout move from the most recent base. It is still right at the breakout, a very good place to start a position and then look for more on the first test. Excellent money flow and a relative strength breakout as well show the strength of the stock.
Volume: 1.139M Avg Volume: 491.634K
BUY POINT: $38.62 Volume=735K Target=$42.75 Stop=$35.92
POSITION: DQH AH - Jan. $40c (46 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/wbsn.html
CONTINUING PLAY LIST
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http://investmenthouse.com/ihalerts/table.php
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http://www.investmenthouse.com/rescue/rescue.php3
LEGEND FOR CONTINUING PLAY TABLE
DATE: date play first appeared on report.
PLAY: Denotes the type of pattern or play.
Upside play types: Asc Tri =Ascending triangle; BO=Breakout; Cup=Cup base; Cup hdl=Cup w/handle; DB hdl=Double bottom w/handle; Dbl btm=Double bottom; Flat=Flat base; FlyPlat=Flying Plateau; Pennant=Pennant; Rv H&S=Reverse head & shoulders; Saucer=Saucer base; Test 18=Testing 18 day MVA; Test 50=Testing 50 day MVA; Test BO=Testing the breakout (could be 10 day MVA test, etc.)
Downside play types: CCall=Covered Call; Dsc Tri=Descending triangle; Dbl Top=Double top; H&S=Head & shoulders; Put (generic downside);
PIVOT=Buy point
Tgt=Target stock price for the play. Applies to stock and options.
Vol=Volume for the most recent session.
TgtV=Target volume to enter the play.
Stop=Stop advisory point. This is advisory and we may or may not exit a play if it hits this level depending upon market conditions.
PLAY STATUS: Buy not hit (stock has not hit buy point); Buy not issued (stock has hit buy point but did not enter due to weak volume, poor intraday action, poor market action); Current (ongoing play already entered); Entered today (entered the play that session); Exited (closed the position); Target hit (play hit initial target; will note if took all or partial gain or let run further); Trailing stop (exited using a trailing stop loss).
Upside Plays
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
AEOS 07/27 Flat 32.04 +0.55 31.18 36.32 1.4M 2.3M 31.09
Current. Continue to move up after testing the 50 day MVA. Tested the 10 day MVA intraday and rallied back on lower, below average volume. Holding at some resistance.
AET 08/11 DB hdl 90.8 +1.2 90.38 96.65 2.1M 1.8M 88.72
Current. Continue with uptrend showing a doji on lower, but strong volume.
BEAV 08/10 Test BO 10.17 -0.09 10.29 12.38 486K 600K 9.72
Current. Pullback tapping 10 intraday on lower, but average volume. Beginning to make a lateral move.
BGC 08/07 Cup hdl 9.3 +0.05 9.88 11.92 140K 581K 9.19
Buy Not Hit. Showing a doji above the 18 day MVA on low volume. Still in the pattern.
CZN 07/26 Test BO 14.29 -0.09 14.55 16.88 6.6M 3.5M 14.04
Buy Not Issued. Tapped 14.41 at the high, but gave it back holding above the 10 day MVA on strong volume. Still in good shape.
DADE 08/07 Test BO 50.77 -0.1 51.95 57.38 73K 515K 40.05
Buy Not Issued. Pullback on very low volume. Still in uptrend.
ESL 07/24 Cup hdl 30.4 -0.02 30.88 35.22 100K 150K 30.02
Current. Showing a tight doji on the 18 day MVA as stock makes a lateral move on low volume.
HANS 08/11 Cup hdl 22.29 -0.96 24.44 28 168K 550K 23.89
Buy Not Hit. Pullback testing the 50 day MVA intraday and rallied back holding the simple 50 day MVA on rising, but below average volume. Still in the pattern.
ISRG 08/09 Test BO 21.92 +0.4 22.12 25.65 273K 400K 21.12
Buy Not Issued. Tested the 18 day MVA intraday and rallied back showing a doji above the 10 day MVA on rising, but below average volume. Still in the pattern.
MBT 08/07 Cup 120.06 +2.46 121.65 135 291K 500K 116.95
Buy Not Issued. Gapped up at the open and rallied for a nice gain on lower, but average volume. Holding at resistance. Looking good.
MCIP 08/12 Test 50 16.6 +0.36 17.05 20 1.4M 5.1M 16.55
Buy Not Hit. Nice move up the 10 day MVA on very low volume. Needs to break through resistance at 17.
MDCC 08/05 Cup 22.53 -0.33 21.38 24.28 352K 225K 21.98
Current. Pullback tapping 22.07 intraday and rallied back on much lower, but still above average volume. Still in uptrend.
MSA 07/21 Test BO 37.4 -0.28 35.65 40 219K 229K 35.52
Current. Tapped 36.25 at the low and rallied back showing a doji on the 10 day MVA on rising, but average volume.
NUS 08/11 Test BO 25.35 -0.02 26.15 30.18 180K 475K 24.55
Buy Not Hit. Making lateral move on the 18 day MVA on low volume.
OPTN 07/24 Test BO 16.15 +0.21 16.58 20 145K 175K 16.24
Buy Not Issued. Tested the 50 day MVA and rallied back for a nice gain on rising, but average volume. Looking good.
PMSI 08/03 Test 50 7.29 +0.31 7.64 9.15 75K 160K 7.15
Buy Not Hit. Gapped down to open below the 50 day MVA and made a fierce rally holding above the 10 day MVA on rising, but below average volume. Holding at some resistance.
PPDI 07/24 Test BO 33.07 +0.09 34.22 40.25 109K 650K 33.55
Buy Not Issued. Making a lateral move above the 50 day MVA on very low volume.
RAI 08/07 Test BO 69.99 -1.1 72.22 79 1.3M 2M 70.89
Buy Not Issued. Pullback tapping 69.36 at the low and rallied back holding just below the 18 day MVA on rising, but below average volume.
ROK 08/03 Asc Tri 36.67 -0.17 37.95 43.95 1.1M 1.3M 36.44
Buy Not Issued. Showing a doji just below the 18 day MVA on lower, but above average volume. Still in good shape making higher lows.
SAPE 08/09 Test BO 6.95 +0.01 7.04 8.54 811K 1.5M 6.62
Current. Tapped 7.10 at the high, but gave it back showing a doji on low volume. Beginning to make a lateral move.
SNDA 07/31 Cup hdl 20.57 -1.08 19.51 23.32 996K 500K 19.68
Current. More volatile session. Pullback tapping 20 intraday and rallied back on stronger above average volume. May test back to the 10 day MVA.
SPRT 08/05 DB hdl 8.12 -0.56 9.06 11 598K 1.2M 8.54
Buy Not Hit. Thudded down below the simple 50 day MVA on rising volume. The stock has not performed so will drop.
STSI 08/04 Cup hdl 5 +0.5 4.98 6 1.9M 400K 4.64
Entered today. Explosive move on excellent volume surge.
SYMC 08/10 DB hdl 45.22 -0.49 47.35 53.38 2.9M 7.6M 44.65
Buy Not Hit. Pullback testing the 18 day MVA on lower, below average volume. Still in the pattern.
TDS 08/02 FlyPlat 75.9 +0.55 77.04 82.12 62K 265K 75.05
Buy Not Hit. Bounced off the 18 day MVA holding above the 10 day MVA. Still in good shape making higher lows.
TRA 08/09 Cup hdl 6.59 +0.14 6.95 8.35 246K 450K 6.46
Buy Not Issued. Tapped 6.31 at the low and rallied back for a nice gain on lower, below average volume. Looking good, but will need more volume.
Downside Plays
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
ADVS 07/31 Put 14.97 +0.06 15.59 13.95 118K 285K 15.35
Current. Relief bounce on very low volume. Still in downtrend.
ALD 08/07 Put 24.48 -0.34 24.18 22.23 349K 1M 24.84
Buy Not Hit. Moving down holding the 10 day MVA on rising, but below average volume. Needs to break through support here.
BDY 08/04 Put 22.41 +0.01 24.12 22.05 278K 420K 23.21
Tapped 21.72 at the low and rallied back on rising, but below average volume showing a doji. Making a lateral move.
BRLI 07/22 Put 11.24 -0.08 12.21 10.68 56K 280K 11.62
Tapped 11.60 at the high, but could not hold the gain. Moving down the 10 day MVA on low volume.
BSX 08/12 Put 32.37 -0.92 32.72 30.69 3.7M 7.3M 32.68
Entered today. Nice move down the 10 day MVA on low volume.
CNF 08/12 Put 39.08 -0.75 39.54 37.35 280K 465K 39.62
Entered today. Another nice move down the 10 day MVA on slightly lower, below average volume.
ELAB 08/04 Put 26.11 -0.7 27.98 25.65 900K 1M 27.77
Current. Nice move down the 10 day MVA on rising, but below average volume.
ESRX 08/12 Put 60.63 +0.66 59.83 57.28 607K 1.1M 60.44
Buy Not Hit. Held at 60 & bounced on low volume. Would love to see
a low volume bounce up to the 10 day MA near 62.50
to better set up the downside play.
IDXC 08/05 Put 28.1 +0.64 27.43 25.35 98K 165K 28.57
Current. Relief bounce holding just under the 10 day MVA on low volume. Should hold here and turn over.
IR 08/10 Put 62.2 -1.43 64.52 62.05 1.7M 1.4M 62.48
Current. Was such a strong drop we decided to let it continue
lower to see if it will test 61.
LDG 08/07 Put 21.44 +0.22 20.94 19.38 286K 400K 21.65
Buy Not Issued. Moving up testing the 50 day MVA intraday, but gave some of it back holding the 18 day MVA on rising, but below average volume. May test up to 21.64, before rolling over.
NFX 08/11 Put 54.45 +1.47 53.61 51.42 3.6M 650K 53.85
Current. Oils rebounded Friday on volume, but they are volatile.
NFX is still below the 50 day MA, and still does not
look good.
NKE 08/09 Put 69.69 +0.12 69.38 66.25 883K 1.2M 70.74
Entered today. Entered and it tanked. Late rebound pushed it back
up, but still struggling below the 200 day MA.
ONXX 08/09 Put 31.75 -1.02 32.85 29.48 547K 1.5M 33.48
Buy Not Issued. Without the volume behind the move lower we were unwilling to enter, especially as it has a small double bottom at 30.
SCSS 08/05 Put 14.01 -1.35 16.71 15.08 3.9M 1.2M 17.25
Target Hit. Gapped down and continue to move down hitting the target.
TLM 08/11 Put 23.23 +0.97 21.84 20.31 415K 450K 22.22
Buy Not Hit. Big bounce holding above the 10 day MVA on lower, but above average volume. The stock has not performed so will drop.
VLO 08/10 Put 66.57 +1.45 67.38 64.88 1.7M 2.5M 65.49
Current. Relief bounce tapping 67.66 intraday, but could not hold the gain on lower, below average volume. Still in downtrend. May test resistance at 68.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your IH Alerts Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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us stock market
stock split
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