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Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good moves Thursday: HAR; MSA; SNDA; SYMC; TZOO; IR
In each report we prepare full write-ups for those plays that look ready to move. Those that have made the move or are still setting up are discussed in the continuing play table. The purpose is to focus on those stocks that are set to make us money.
NEW PLAYS:
New Pre-Split Plays:
Play Date: 08/19/2004
ZBRA (Zebra Technologies--$82.62; -0.6; optionable): Computer peripherals. Splits 3:2 on 8-26-04
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/z/zbra.html
STATUS: Double bottom. ZBRA is forming a short 7 week base and is now looking as if it is forming a handle, taking a breather Thursday on lower, below average volume. Strong money flow moving higher ahead of price. These plays tend to be explosive when you have an explosive stock such as ZBRA. Just want to see the volume hop as it moves through the buy point.
Volume: 249.175K Avg Volume: 421.866K
BUY POINT: $83.58 Volume=425K Target=$89.88 Stop=$82.22
POSITION: ZBQ KP - Nov. $80c (67 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/zbra.html
New Post-Split Plays:
Play Date: 08/19/2004
CCBI (Commercial Capital Bancorp--$22.71; -0.45; optionable): Savings & loan
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/ccbi.html
After Hours: $22.68
STATUS: Test breakout. CCBI is testing the Wednesday breakout move from its 19 week cup with handle base. Strong 7 to 4 accumulation in the base shows net buyers during the pattern. Relative strength broke out on the Wednesday move, a good corroboration of the break higher. May come back to test 22 on the pullback, but we want to be ready to enter on a turn back up from the Thursday close. Strong money flow is leading the way higher.
Volume: 870.746K Avg Volume: 411.562K
BUY POINT: $22.88 Volume=600K Target=$26 Stop=$22.25
POSITION: FVU LX - Dec. $22.50c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ccbi.html
New Downside:
Play Date: 08/19/2004
EL (Estee Lauder--$42.50; +0.22; optionable): Make-up
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/el.html
STATUS: Put. Tried to base in July and August, but then exploded down through the 200 day SMA (42.60) Tuesday on massive volume. It is making a rebound to test the breakdown, but volume has faded. Looking for it to turn back down and give us a nice quick move for a 45%ish gain.
Volume: 2.909M Avg Volume: 1.111M
BUY POINT: $42.25 Volume=1.7M Target=$40.15 Stop=$42.68
POSITION: EL VI - Oct. $45p (-80 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/el.html
Play Date: 08/19/2004
PH (Parker Hannifin--$53.63; -1.55; optionable): Industrial equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/ph.html
STATUS: Put. Tried to base along with the market this year, but instead of rallying, it has turned down and did so Thursday on sharply higher volume. Weak money flow and stochastics failed to turn back up and give the crossover. Looks ready to fall and give us a 50%ish gain.
Volume: 1.22M Avg Volume: 778.853K
BUY POINT: $53.48 Volume=800K Target=$51.25 Stop=$54.85
POSITION: PH UK - Sept. $55p (-70 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ph.html
Continuing Downside Plays:
Play Date: 08/14/2004
SGMS (Scientific Games--$16.68; -0.42; optionable): PC hardware
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sgms.html
STATUS: Put. Tried to set up a base April to July, then started August with a breakdown through the 200 day SMA (17.43). It has rallied back up to test that move, but after reaching the 18 day EMA (16.99) Wednesday, it turned down Thursday on continued above average volume. Looking for it to break lower on even stronger volume to enter the downside play.
Volume: 815.001K Avg Volume: 642.086K
BUY POINT: $16.26 Volume=700K Target=$14.75 Stop=$16.72
POSITION: TUJ VW - Oct. $17.50p (-67 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/sgms.html
Play Date: 08/17/2004
XLE (Spdr Energy Sector--$31.1; +0.1; optionable): Energy sector spyder
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/x/xle.html
After Hours: $30.59
STATUS: Double top. Energy stocks are still struggling, and that has XLE struggling below the 50 day EMA (31.31). XLE gapped up Thursday to tap the 50 day but closed with a doji on higher volume below that key resistance level. Looking for it to turn back down on continues strong trade to give us a nice 50%ish move.
Volume: 2.264M Avg Volume: 1.839M
BUY POINT: $30.54 Volume=2.5M Target=$29.31 Stop=$30.85
POSITION: XLE UE - Sept. $31p (-68 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/xle.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
Current Pre-Announcement Plays: In each report we look at the candidates that are in the best patterns ahead of their potential announcements. This focus on leaders in good patterns allows us to make good money even if companies do not announce the split. The key with splits is the pattern. Still gat positive moves on the announcement, but stocks in this market need to have a good pattern of accumulation to really benefit from a split announcement.
AET: Took a breather but volume crept a bit higher. Still a solid move.
DAKT: Forecast 8-18-04. No split announced. Never gave us a decent entry point.
FDX: Forecast 9-22-04. Still trying to retake the 50 day EMA.
HUG: Forecast 8-24-04 after the close.
KMRT: Forecast 8-26-04.
MBT: Still researching to pinpoint the date. Harder as it is foreign.
NMGA: Forecast 9-7-04 after the close. Struggling below the 200 day SMA.
PENN: Researching to pinpoint a date. Coming back to test the 18 day EMA.
RAVN: Forecast 8-19-04 before the open. No split but good results.
ROP: Forecast 8-18-04. No split announcement but good recovery.
SBUX: Coming back to the 50 day EMA on lower volume.
UTX: Forecast 10-20-04. Doing a decent job of forming back up but not there yet.
Full Write-ups: We do not cover all candidates in full in each report, but focus on those ready to make a move or are right at their forecast announcement date. This way we are focused on those stocks ready to make moves.
New Pre-Announcement Plays:
New buy point
Play Date: 08/19/2004
HUG (Hughes Supply--$59.8; -0.9; optionable): Plumbing supplies. Forecast to announce a split 8-24-04.
BACKGROUND: Last split 3:2 on 7-17-97 at a price of $39.50
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hug.html
STATUS: Ascending base. HUG was struggling to start the month, but it has made a solid comeback, recovering the 50 day EMA (58.33), fighting off a short double top to finish July. It took a breather Thursday, coming back to test the 18 day EMA (59.28) on very low volume. Not a bad move after that recovery. Nice 4 to 1 accumulation in the base is setting up another breakout try along with some solid money flow leading the way higher.
Volume: 105.2K Avg Volume: 284.891K
BUY POINT: $60.92 Volume=427K Target=$67 Stop=$59.15
POSITION: HUG AL - Jan. $60c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/hug.html
Continuing Pre-Announcement Plays:
Play Date: 08/18/2004
KMRT (Kmart Holding--$76.89; -1.87; optionable): Discount variety stores. Forecast 8-26-04.
BACKGROUND: This is the new K-Mart. There are no prior splits, but it is at that $75 level that is the new 'in' level to announce splits.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/k/kmrt.html
After Hours: $76.72
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. KMRT looks as if it is working laterally to form a handle to its short 7 week base. It has used the 50 day EMA (68.75) as the bottom of the base, an important level that shows institutional support. Money flow continues to surge ahead of the price. Would like to see it move laterally for two more sessions and then give the breakout move, but with this stock it could go at any time.
Volume: 3.156M Avg Volume: 2.647M
BUY POINT: $79.42 Volume=3.6M Target=$88.88 Stop=$77.85
POSITION: KTQ LP - Dec. $80c (53 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/kmrt.html
Play Date: 08/07/2004
MBT (Mobile Telesys--$123.30; -0.38; optionable): Russian wireless services. Announced earnings in June. Researching next date, but wanted it on as it is getting ready to run.
BACKGROUND: A new issue in 2001, MBT has yet to announce its first split. It made us money last year on its run and now it is setting up again.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mbt.html
STATUS: Cup. Big surge early in the week is being tested now on lower volume. Still a very good 19 week base that has formed over the 50 day EMA (118.31), and it is now forming the handle, the point where it shakes out the last sellers. It is setting up for the next big move. Just being patient and letting it make the next high volume move to step into some more positions. It can fly when it gets going.
Volume: 168.4K Avg Volume: 289.831K
BUY POINT: $125.65 (orig. $121.65) Volume=500K Target=$135 Stop=$116.95
POSITION: MBT LE - Dec. $125c (48 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/mbt.html
Play Date: 08/17/2004
VIP (Vimple Communication--$94.61; +1.81; optionable): Russian telecom. Researching to pinpoint the date.
BACKGROUND: No past splits.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/v/vip.html
STATUS: Cup. VIP continues to look good. It gapped up on massive volume Tuesday, clearing the 50 day EMA (89.18) on the move. It is now edging laterally on lower volume. Thursday it tried to continue the move, but volume was not there. That kept us from moving into the play. No need to rush it; when this stock takes off again it will be flying.
Volume: 371.9K Avg Volume: 424.856K
BUY POINT: New: $95.06 (orig. $94.55) Volume=581K Target=$104.55 Stop=$92.66
POSITION: VIP JS - Oct. $95c (47 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/vip.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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