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stock split, stock recommendation
Begin part 2 of 2
Support and Resistance
NASDAQ: Closed at 1838.02
Resistance:
1850 (July lows) and the May 2004 lows (1876 closing, 1865 intraday) may prove to be some resistance.
The March 2004 lows (1897 - 1989)
The 50 day EMA at 1880 is key resistance.
The 2004 down trendline at 1935
The 200 day SMA at 1974
Support:
The October 2002/March 2003 up trendline at 1829
The 18 day EMA at 1824
July 2003 highs at 1755
Late July 2003 top at 1735.
June 2003 intraday highs at 1686 to closing range at 1644 to 1677 (mid-July low here as well).
1600.
S&P 500: Closed at 1098.35
Resistance:
1096 to 1100 represent price support.
The 50 day EMA at 1099
The 200 day SMA at 1110
The March/April down trendline at 1122
1125 was key price support.
1142-1146 are the June highs.
The April and January highs (1150 to 1155).
1159 (February highs) and 1160 to 1175 the highs in that double top that spanned late 2001, early 2002.
Support:
The 18 day EMA at 1087
May low at 1084 (closing) to 1076 (intraday).
1080 (May and July lows).
1062 - 1058 from November 2003
1048-1040 from September 2003
1010 - 1015 from June/July 2003
Dow: Closed at 10,110
Resistance:
The 50 day EMA at 10,105 is not completely broken.
The February/April down trendline at 10,127
The 200 day SMA at 10,245
Late April, June peaks at 10,478 to 10,512
10,570 is the early April high
Price consolidation at 10,600 level
10,747 is the February high
Support:
The 18 day EMA at 10,013
9783 to 9793, the August lows.
9625 - 9660 from September 2003.
9500 from various price points in late summer to fall 2003.
9250. More solid support from the June through August 2003 consolidation.
Economic Calendar
These are consensus expectations. Our expectations will vary and are discussed in the 'Economy' section.
August 24
Existing Home Sales, July (10:00): 6.80M expected and 6.95M prior
Durable Orders, July (8:30): 1.0% expected and 0.9% prior
August 25
New Home Sales, July (10:00): 1292K expected and 1326K prior
August 26
Initial Claims, 08/21 (8:30): 331K prior
Help-Wanted Index, July (10:00): 38 expected and 38 prior
August 27
GDP-Preliminary, Q2 (8:30): 2.8% expected and 3.0%
Chain Deflator-Preliminary, Q2 08:30): 3.2% expected and 3.2% prior
Michigan Sentiment-Rev., Aug (9:45): 94.0 expected and 94.0 prior
THE PLAYS
Good moves Friday: BSTE; INSP; MDCC; QCOM; TUNE; CKFR
Thursday night play results:
APCS: No volume as it edged higher.
ZBRA: Still looks ready to make the break higher.
CKFR: Started down on volume Friday.
EL: Moved up to the 10 day EMA on lower volume.
PH: Jumped back up to the 10 day EMA on lower, below average volume. Still struggling.
Upside:
Play Date: 08/21/2004
DRS (DRS Technologies--$37.52; +1.57; optionable): Aerospace/defense
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/drs.html
STATUS: Flying plateau. DRS exploded out of a 4.5 month double base to start July. It has moved laterally since, roughly holding the 18 day EMA (35.70) as it consolidates that explosive breakout. Accumulation in the current 7 week pattern is a solid 3 to 1, showing buying continues in the stock even as it bases. Excellent money flow to boot. Friday DRS started higher on rising though still below average volume. Relative strength broke out on the move on a day when the market was up. Looks strong.
Volume: 333.4K Avg Volume: 371.565K
BUY POINT: $37.85 Volume=557K Target=$42 Stop=$36.98
POSITION: DRS LG - Dec. $35c (82 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/drs.html
Play Date: 08/21/2004
FAST (Fastenal Company--$61.89; +1.93; optionable): Fasteners. Looking for a possible split announcement on 8-24-04.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fast.html
After Hours: $61.83
STATUS: Ascending triangle. FAST broke sharply higher in early July from a 14 week base, surging on very strong volume. It has since formed the current 6 week triangle/flying plateau as it consolidates that move and sets up the next. Last week volume started to surge, jumping back above average every session. Friday the stock looked solid. Excellent money flow and outstanding 4 to 0 accumulation in the lateral move. Looks ready to make the next move in the breakout.
Volume: 736.383K Avg Volume: 624.866K
BUY POINT: $62.75 Volume=937K Target=$70.72 Stop=$60.45
POSITION: FQA BM - Feb. $65c (41 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/fast.html
Play Date: 08/21/2004
RIMM (Research in Motion--$61.77; +2.65; optionable): Handheld PDA's
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/rimm.html
After Hours: $62.29
STATUS: Double bottom. RIMM formed a small double bottom the past 7 weeks, tapping twice at 52.50 earlier this month. It rallied back and recovered the 50 day EMA (58.69), jumping off that level Friday on some solid, average volume. Excellent money flow is rallying well ahead of price. Looks very good and can fly when it gets started. Looks ready to do just that.
Volume: 8.595M Avg Volume: 8.637M
BUY POINT: $63.12 Volume=10M Target=$72 Stop=$62.22
POSITION: RUP LZ - Dec. $62.50c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/rimm.html
Play Date: 08/21/2004
WITS (Witness Systems--$13.48; +0.76; no options): Application software for customer intelligence and to optimize workforce performance.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wits.html
STATUS: Flat. Great surge from October to March, but 14 stalled the move. It has spent the past 22 weeks moving laterally between 12 and 14. it came back the past 5 weeks and made two taps at the 200 day SMA (11.54) on the lows, and that shot it higher last week. Volume jumped as the stock did. It is right below 14 and showing some great volume to end the week. Excellent 5 to 2 accumulation in the pattern sets the stage for the breakout.
Volume: 416.045K Avg Volume: 305.727K
BUY POINT: $14.12 Volume=459K Target=$16.95 Stop=$13.88
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/wits.html
Downside:
Play Date: 08/21/2004
ERES (Eresearch Tech--$20.18; +0.24; optionable): Medical labs, research
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/eres.html
After Hours: $20.17
STATUS: Put. ERES peaked in July on low volume and then dove through the 50 day EMA (22.95) with a big gap lower. It failed a test, then took out the 200 day SMA (21.20). It rallied back from that drop but could only make it to the 10 day EMA (20.45). Looks ready to turn down from there as the volume on the move back up was quite weak. Money flow is still diving lower, and we are looking for ERES to follow it.
Volume: 813.35K Avg Volume: 1.497M
BUY POINT: $19.98 Volume=1.5M Target=$17.88 Stop=$20.48
POSITION: UDB VD - Oct. $20p (-43 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/eres.html
Play Date: 08/21/2004
TEVA (Teva Pharmaceutical--$27.97; +0.25; optionable): Drugs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/teva.html
After Hours: $28.13
STATUS: Put. A steady downtrend below the 10 day EMA (27.76) starting early July has yielded a very low volume bounce up to the 18 day EMA (28.32) last week. That followed a nasty gap lower the prior week on very heavy volume. Under continued distribution and tanking money flow. Looking for it to roll over here and continue the move lower.
Volume: 2.897M Avg Volume: 4.324M
BUY POINT: $27.72 Volume=4.5M Target=$25.55 Stop=$28.35
POSITION: TVQ VF - Oct. $30p (-66 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/teva.html
CONTINUING PLAY LIST
* * SPREADSHEET DOWNLOAD * * *
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http://investmenthouse.com/ihalerts/table.php
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http://www.investmenthouse.com/rescue/rescue.php3
LEGEND FOR CONTINUING PLAY TABLE
DATE: date play first appeared on report.
PLAY: Denotes the type of pattern or play.
Upside play types: Asc Tri =Ascending triangle; BO=Breakout; Cup=Cup base; Cup hdl=Cup w/handle; DB hdl=Double bottom w/handle; Dbl btm=Double bottom; Flat=Flat base; FlyPlat=Flying Plateau; Pennant=Pennant; Rv H&S=Reverse head & shoulders; Saucer=Saucer base; Test 18=Testing 18 day MVA; Test 50=Testing 50 day MVA; Test BO=Testing the breakout (could be 10 day MVA test, etc.)
Downside play types: CCall=Covered Call; Dsc Tri=Descending triangle; Dbl Top=Double top; H&S=Head & shoulders; Put (generic downside);
PIVOT=Buy point
Tgt=Target stock price for the play. Applies to stock and options.
Vol=Volume for the most recent session.
TgtV=Target volume to enter the play.
Stop=Stop advisory point. This is advisory and we may or may not exit a play if it hits this level depending upon market conditions.
PLAY STATUS: Buy not hit (stock has not hit buy point); Buy not issued (stock has hit buy point but did not enter due to weak volume, poor intraday action, poor market action); Current (ongoing play already entered); Entered today (entered the play that session); Exited (closed the position); Target hit (play hit initial target; will note if took all or partial gain or let run further); Trailing stop (exited using a trailing stop loss).
Upside Plays
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
AEOS 07/27 Flat 34.11 +0.48 31.18 36.32 1.2M 2.3M 32.82
Current. Continue with uptrend on lower, below average volume.
AET 08/11 DB hdl 94.23 +1.78 90.38 96.65 1.1M 1.8M 93.39
Current. Continue with uptrend on lower, below average volume. Last time this high was in April.
AGYS 08/14 Test BO 14.54 +0.29 14.85 17.55 74K 276K 13.95
Buy Not Issued. Tapped 14.17 at the intraday low and rallied back as stock moves up the 10 day MVA on low volume. Looking good but volume will need to increase.
APCS 08/19 Flat 8.15 +0.01 8.32 9.98 361K 2.2M 7.95
Buy Not Hit. Tapped 8 intraday and rallied back as stock begins to make a lateral move on very low volume.
BEAV 08/10 Test BO 11.12 +0.12 10.29 12.38 392K 600K 10.45
Current. Moving up the 10 day MVA for a nice gain showing a doji on lower, below average volume. Has not been this high since 2002.
BGC 08/07 Cup hdl 9.87 +0.18 9.88 11.92 150K 581K 9.19
Buy Not Issued. Continue to move up the 10 day MVA for a nice gain on very low volume. Volume will need to increase before we will enter the play.
BLS 08/17 Cup hdl 27.09 +0.16 27.88 30.91 3.3M 6.1M 26.88
Buy Not Hit. Tapped 26.80 intraday and rallied back holding just under the 10 day MVA on lower, below average volume. Still in the pattern.
BSTE 08/18 Flat 47.23 +2.26 46.91 52.68 594K 496K 46.42
Entered today. Explosive move on very strong volume surge.
CLF 08/16 Cup hdl 67.2 +0.19 66.14 74 250K 454K 65.95
Current. Beginning to make a lateral move on lower, below average volume. Needs to clear resistance at 67.50
DADE 08/07 Test BO 53.61 +0.84 51.95 57.38 88K 515K 50.22
Buy Not Issued. Continue to move up the 10 day MVA on low volume. Did not enter the play because volume was not there. Will drop for now and let stock pullback.
ESL 07/24 Cup hdl 31.68 +0.61 30.88 35.22 58K 150K 30.96
Current. Nice move up the 10 day MVA on rising, but still below average volume. There is some resistance at 61.70.
HAR 08/18 Test 50 93.89 +4.19 85.88 92 1.4M 700K 88,87
Target Hit. Quick play. Stock surge likely crazy hitting the target. Will let it pullback for another possible play.
INSP 08/18 Cup 39.41 +2.14 38.38 43.55 1.9M 1.5M 38.45
Entered today. Bounced off the 10 day MVA for a great move on strong volume surge.
ISRG 08/09 Test BO 24.88 +0.4 22.71 26.05 639K 400K 23.97
Current. Continue with uptrend on stronger above average volume. Came off the day's high of 25.40.
JUPM 08/14 Asc Tri 14.65 -0.45 14.15 17.22 781K 513K 14.55
Current. Pullback on much lower, but still strong volume. Still in good shape.
KMRT 08/18 Dbl btm 76.55 -0.34 79.42 88.88 2.3M 3.6M 77.85
Buy Not Hit. Pullback showing a tight doji on lower, below average volume. Still in the pattern.
MBT 08/07 Cup 124.15 +0.85 122.65 135 142K 500K 121.22
Current. Moving up the 10 day MVA on lower, below average volume. Still in good shape.
MCIP 08/12 Test 50 17.43 +0.05 17.11 20 1.2M 5.1M 16.61
Current. Beginning to make a lateral move showing a doji on very low volume.
MDCC 08/05 Cup 23.73 +1.25 21.38 24.28 581K 225K 22.92
Current. Explosive move on excellent volume surge. Making a 52 week high.
MSA 07/21 Test BO 41.98 +0.38 35.65 40 236K 229K 40.45
Current. Continue with uptrend on lower, but average volume. Came off the day's high of 42.85.
NUS 08/11 Test BO 26.55 +0.58 26.15 30.18 248K 475K 24.55
Buy Not Issued. Tested the 10 day MVA intraday and continued to move up the 10 day MVA on low volume. Did not enter the play, because volume was not there. Will let the stock test back and see if volume comes in on the next run.
OCAS 08/16 DB hdl 20.03 -0.1 20.02 23.05 695K 358K 19.78
Buy Not Issued. Pullback showing a doji on very strong volume surge. Did not enter the play, because stock did not make the decisive move. Will still be a buy on Monday if stock makes a decisive move on good volume.
OPTN 07/24 Test BO 15.95 +0.14 16.58 20 169K 175K 16.24
Buy Not Issued. Tapped 16.31 at the high, but gave most of it back showing a doji just above the 50 day MVA on much stronger, but average volume. Doji may indicate a change in pattern.
PMSI 08/03 Test 50 7.5 +0.02 7.64 9.15 50K 160K 7.15
Buy Not Issued. Beginning to make a lateral move on low volume.
PPDI 07/24 Test BO 33.73 +0.23 34.22 40.25 332K 650K 33.55
Buy Not Issued. Tested the simple 50 day MVA intraday and made a fierce rally back showing a doji just above the 10 day MVA on lower, below average volume. Moving up after testing the 50 day MVA.
QCOM 08/14 Flat 37.2 +1.69 35.42 40.48 22M 11M 35.98
Current. Tested the 10 day MVA intraday making an explosive move on excellent volume surge.
RAI 08/07 Test BO 72.95 +0.07 72.22 79 1000 2M 70.89
Buy Not Issued. Beginning to make a lateral move showing a doji on rising, but below average volume.
ROK 08/03 Asc Tri 38.3 +0.42 38.08 43.95 770K 1.3M 37.48
Current. Continue with uptrend on rising, but below average volume. Holding at some resistance here.
SAPE 08/09 Test BO 7.45 -0.03 7.04 8.54 1.1M 1.5M 6.99
Current. Making a lateral move above the 10 day MVA on lower below average volume. Holding on to its gain.
SNDA 07/31 Cup hdl 21.58 -0.35 19.51 23.32 326K 500K 20.46
Current. Pullback on lower below average volume. Still in uptrend.
STSI 08/04 Cup hdl 4.81 +0.15 4.98 6 417K 400K 4.64
Current. Tapped 4.55 at the day's low and rallied back for a nice gain on lower, but average volume. Came off the day's high of 5. Moving up after testing the breakout
SYMC 08/10 DB hdl 48.04 +0.28 47.83 53.88 4.6M 7.6M 46.94
Current. Continue with uptrend on lower, below average volume.
TDS 08/02 FlyPlat 77.65 +0.45 77.46 82.38 95K 265K 76.05
Current. Continue to move up the 10 day MVA on rising, but below average volume. Making a 52 week high.
TRA 08/09 Cup hdl 7.2 +0.13 7.04 8.45 512K 450K 6.82
Current. More volatile session as stock continues to move up the 10 day MVA on stronger above average volume. Made a 52 week high.
TUNE 08/17 Asc Tri 4.83 +0.36 4.58 5.48 1.2M 758K 4.65
Current. Tested the 10 day MVA intraday and made an explosive move on strong volume surge.
WBSN 08/14 Cup hdl 39.84 -0.1 39.58 43.45 863K 735K 38.46
Current. Making a lateral move showing a doji on lower, but strong volume. Came off the day's high of 40.73.
ZBRA 08/19 Dbl btm 83 +0.38 83.58 89.88 343K 425K 82.22
Buy Not Hit. Making lateral move showing a doji on rising, but below average volume.
Downside Plays
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
BDY 08/04 Put 23.6 +0.78 24.12 22.05 260K 420K 23.21
Exited. Rallied above the 18 day MVA on low volume.
CKFR 08/19 Put 25.57 -0.4 25.59 23.54 1.3M 1M 26.22
Entered today. Nice decisive move down on much stronger above average volume.
COG 08/16 Put 39.93 +0.64 39.62 37.05 309K 300K 40.35
Buy Not Issued. Rallied holding the 10 day MVA on stronger above average volume. Needs to roll over here or will look to drop.
COT 08/14 Put 28.94 +0.26 28.39 26.64 127K 450K 28.58
Buy Not Issued. Relief bounce holding below resistance at 29 on very low volume. Still in downtrend.
EL 08/19 Put 42.75 +0.25 42.25 40.15 1.5M 1.7M 42.68
Buy Not Issued. Continue to bounce, but on much lower, above average volume holding the 10 day MVA. May test resistance at 43.
ESRX 08/12 Put 60.99 -0.53 59.83 57.28 1M 1.1M 60.44
Buy Not Hit. Move down below the 10 day MVA on below average volume. Will drop for now. Will probably find support at 60. Will look for a better position to get into.
GRP 08/17 Put 18.35 +0.43 17.08 15.78 839K 785K 17.68
Current. Lower volume bounce. Expect it to roll back over this
week. If does not break back thru 18 on that move we
close it.
IR 08/10 Put 63.48 +0.86 64.52 62.05 924K 1.4M 62.48
Current. Relief bounce on much lower, below average volume. Still in downtrend.
NFX 08/11 Put 54.78 +0.38 53.61 51.42 427K 650K 53.85
Current. Tapped 55.76 (simple 50 day MVA)intraday, but could not hold the entire gain holding the 10 day MVA on lower, below average volume. Should turn over from here.
PH 08/19 Put 54.6 +0.97 53.48 51.25 734K 800K 54.85
Buy Not Issued. Rallied on much lower, below average volume holding below the 10 day MVA. May test the 10 day MVA before rolling over.
TLCV 08/16 Put 8.77 -0.03 8.75 7.47 343K 600K 9.04
Buy Not Issued. Tapped 9 at the intraday high, but could not hold the gain on low volume. Making a lateral move under the 10 day MVA.
ULTI 08/14 Des Tri 10.81 -0.11 9.94 8.85 46K 200K 10.18
Buy Not Hit. Moved down tapping 10.61 intraday showing a doji on the 50 day MVA on very low volume. Stock has not made the move we were looking for so will drop.
XLE 08/17 Put 31.42 +0.32 30.96 30 2.2M 2.5M 31.15
Buy Not Hit. Big gap up tapping 31.74 at the intraday high, but could not hold the entire gain showing a doji on the 18 day MVA on strong volume. Needs to hold here and roll over or will drop.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your IH Alerts Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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stock split
stock recommendation
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