stock watch, stock trading site

Begin Part 4 of 4

BRL (Barr Laboratories--$79.00; -1.40; optionable): No announcement, but a bounce with earnings.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/brl.html
BACKGROUND: Last announce a 3:2 split on 5-31-00 with a board meeting. The stock price was $52. The annual shareholder meeting 10-26-00 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2:1 split.
STATUS: Had steadily peeled back after a breakout attempt from a small pennant pattern (hitting a high of 90.60), testing the June high at 77. It bounced up with earnings Tuesday, but could not climb back over the 10 day MVA (81.31), pulling back on lower volume the last two sessions. It has further support at this level from the 50 day MVA (75.21), so we will see if it can hold and try to move back up. The selling back we have seen started with what could have been an over-reaction to some analysts' opinions on generic Prozac sales. The recent (and all-time) high is 90.60. Target on a breakout: 100.
BUY POINT: Aggressive momentum: 83.50 on above average volume (795,000 average; today down to 687,000). Stop: 77.66.
POSITION: Stock and/or November $80 calls to buy (BRL KP).

BRO (Brown & Brown--$47.94; -0.01; no options): Insurance Brokers. http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bro.html
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2:1 split on 7-26-00 in conjunction with its regularly scheduled board meeting. The stock price was $48. The annual shareholder meeting was on 4-18-01 at which time authorized shares were increased.
STATUS: BRO's recent breakout did not last, as it immediately pulled back into its consolidation. The attempt hit a high of 50.69, and has shown several consecutive dojis over its 18 day MVA (47.66). Volume spiked up today to 62,800 (average 46,200), so perhaps BRO is ready to make another try. Holding support has been a good sign. Excellent relative strength and very solid money flow. Target on a breakout: 60.
BUY POINT: A move back over 50 on above average volume.
POSITION: Stock only.

CBH (Commerce Bancorp--$73.25; -1.45; optionable):
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cbh.html
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 5:4 split on 6-29-98. The stock price was $54.63. The annual shareholder meeting was on 6-20-00 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has insufficient shares for a 2:1 split.
STATUS: CBH had been moving in a shallow consolidation, looking very promising, but has sold back out of the pattern. With a high volume doji on the 18 day Tuesday it looked ready to move, but the selling today was not terribly strong, coming in at 74,600 (average 139,000). It is also just above support of the 50 day MVA (72.66) and May high of 72.90. Nothing catastrophic, and we will see if it can respond from this support and try to breakout. Target: 86.
BUY POINT: Aggressive: A move back over the 10 day (75.15) on above average volume. Stop: 69.89. Breakout: 78.12 on above average volume. Stop: 72.65.
POSITION: Both buy points: Stock and/or September $75 calls to buy (CBH IO).

CEFT (Concord EFS--$54.01; +0.50; optionable): Did not get the announcement with earnings.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/ceft.html
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3:2 split on 8-26-99 at a stock price of $37. Prior to that announced a 3:2 split on 5-14-98 in conjunction with its annual shareholder meeting.
STATUS: Still struggling with the 50 day (54.28), consolidating under that level in what appears to be the right shoulder of a head and shoulders pattern. CEFT had pulled back into a consolidation going into earnings last week, but the recent fall took it out of that and into the range of its June-July consolidation (the left shoulder). A bearish pattern, but it is too tight for a put play at the moment, with what could be strong support at 50 from the June lows. The business services sector has been strong, so we will instead see if CEFT can recover. We will likely not see a playable move Friday.
BUY POINT: Aggressive momentum: Over 58.30 on above average volume (3.4 million; today 2.14 million).
POSITION: September $55 calls to buy (EQF IJ).

EXPD (Expeditors International--$55.33; +0.28; optionable):
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/expd.html
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2:1 split on 5-6-99 at a stock price of $62.50. The annual shareholder meeting was on 5-9-01 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2:1 split.
STATUS: Could not hold the recent bounce. After tapping all the way up to its 50 day MVA (57.95) on recent earnings, EXPD has fallen back to support at the 200 day (54.68). Today showed a loose doji just over that level, on very low volume of 189,000 (average 471,900). We are still looking for EXPD take out the 50 day (over the short-term MVAs) before we can commit to positions. Even then, there is quite a bit of resistance ahead, with the stock's down trendline (from its May highs) at 60, and the July highs at 62. This may take some time.
BUY POINT: Aggressive: A move to 58.40 on continued strong volume. Stop: 54.31. POSITION: Stock and/or November $55 calls to buy (URP KK - very low open interest).

FNM (Fannie Mae--$83.91; +0.41; optionable): Mortgage Investment.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fnm.html
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 4:1 split in 1996, splitting at $120.
STATUS: Continuing in its current consolidation. FNM is trying to recover within the handle to its cup pattern (begun in late June, high of 87.87); a steady drop on generally below average volume took it back below 82 (and its 50 day MVA, at 83.21) before battling back last week. The stock is now moving between the ranges of the 50 day and short-term MVA's, today down to 82.36 before pulling up to close. Volume remains low, and we are looking for a surge to carry the stock back toward the handle high.
BUY POINT: Aggressive: A move over 86 on above average volume (3 million; today up slightly to 2.07 million). Stop: 80.
POSITION: Stock and/or September $80 calls to buy (FNM IP).

MIKE (Michaels Stores--$39.25; +0.05; optionable):
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mike.html
BACKGROUND: Based upon our research it does not appear that MIKE has ever split its stock. The annual shareholder meeting was on 9-13-00 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2:1 split.
STATUS: Showing signs of consolidating at the 50 day. After the recent breakout move, (out of an extended handle to a cup), MIKE abruptly gave it all up last week with a drop on strong selling. The stock briefly held support at the 18 day MVA (40.79), but gave that up and fell back through the 50 day MVA (39.57) and in the upper range of the prior consolidation. MIKE is now hovering just under the 50 day, showing consecutive dojis Wednesday and today on steady, slightly above average volume (261,300, average 228,000). The stock has bounced up from the 50 day twice since late June, and we may see a recovery attempt, but we did not like the higher volume selling and will need to see a solid move over the short-term MVAs before we consider additional positions.
BUY POINT: Aggressive: To 42 on continued strong volume (up to 288,800; average 224,300).
POSITION: Stock and/or September $40 calls to buy (IKQ IH).

RMD (Resmed--$55.00; +0.60; optionable): Health services.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/rmd.html
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2:1 split on 2-25-00 with a board meeting. The stock price was $68. The annual shareholder meeting was on 11-6-00 at which time authorized shares were increased.
STATUS: After hitting a new closing high (57.68; all-time high 58.96) in mid-May, RMD pulled back into a 7-week saucer base channeling between 50 and 54 (over the 50 day MVA, at 52.20) on generally below average volume. After a failed breakout attempt last week, the stock coasted along the 10 day MVA (53.76), and gapped up to open today, over our aggressive buy point, but pulled back to close. Volume was very strong on the selling, up significantly to 421,100 (average 276,100). This is not a great sign, and we may see additional selling from here. RMD is still within a sound saucer pattern, and we are looking for continued support at the 10 day, with a sustained move up to a new high. Target on a breakout: 70.
BUY POINT: Breakout: 56.73 on volume of 415,000. Stop: 52.76.
POSITION: Both buy points: Stock and/or October $50 calls to buy (RMD JJ).

POST SPLITS REMAINING PLAYS:

CAKE (Cheesecake Factory--$28.85; -0.82; optionable): Restaurant. Split 3:2 effective 6-19-01.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cake.html
STATUS: Fallen out of the recent consolidation. CAKE made a post-split break out of a cup dating back to November, and hit a high of 32.96 (mid-July) before pulling back into a brief lateral consolidation over support at the 30 level. CAKE made a brief attempt at another run up late last week, but couldn't sustain the move on weak volume, and has fallen back through the 18 day (29.87). Volume was generally light on the pullback, but shot up today to 437,500 (average 456,900). A test of the 50 day that holds could lead to another solid move. Nothing new for Friday.

ESRX (Express Scripts--$54.75; +0.05; optionable): Split 2:1 June 25.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/esrx.html
STATUS: Continuing the doji series. After falling back from the mid-July breakout (high 61.45), ESRX was showing some signs of recovery, but could not sustain it, falling back last Wednesday into the recent consolidation range. The stock is holding the pennant pattern of making higher lows, although recent moves are small, in fairly tight doji patterns under the short-term MVAs (18 day 54.86), today with decreased, below average volume (675,400, average 822,700). Volume has been much stronger on the recent selling, which does not bode well for a rapid move back up. Previous breakout target: 64.
PLAY: Aggressive: After holding here, a move to 56.50 on above average volume with stock and/or November $50 calls to buy (XTQ KJ). Stop: 52.55. Safer: 58.82 on above average volume with stock and/or November $55 calls to buy (XTQ KK). Stop: 54.70.

GENZ (Genzyme--$55.16; +0.83; optionable): Biotechnology. Split 2:1 effective 6-4-01.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/genz.html
STATUS: Could not sustain last week's gain, and has pulled back to the range of the 50 day MVA (54.86). It is showing erratic movement, trading as high as 58.88 Wednesday and down to 52.68 today. With the recent erratic movement, GENZ is not showing us much of a pattern. We will continue to watch it. Nothing for Friday.

LH (Laboratory Corp--$81.99; +0.84; optionable): Health Services. Split 2:1 June 11.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/lh.html
STATUS: Continuing to consolidate. After forming a post-split handle to a cup pattern (dating back to early January), LH broke out a high of 91.35 (mid-July), but fell back into a lower volume consolidation in the range of the prior handle and the 50 day MVA (80.58). As we've noted before, the 50 day is key support, and although the intraday swings are somewhat erratic, LH is holding that level. For upside plays we are looking ahead to the short-term MVA's (10 day at 83.53) for a strong move to carry the stock up over those levels, with additional momentum carrying the stock over the left-side (and all-time) high at 91.50. We won't give it too much time.
PLAY: Aggressive: A move over 85, on stronger than average volume (564,000; today down to 243,300). Stop: 78.59.
POSITION: Stock and/or September 80 call to buy.

TARO (Taro Pharmaceutical--$36.15; -1.45; optionable: Drugs. Split 2:1 July 27.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/taro.html
STATUS: Continues to struggle. After trying twice to push through the 50 day MVA (39.40), TARO fell back again Wednesday, and continued down today, tapping through the 35 level, before pulling up slightly to close. Volume has fallen on the selling, down today to 829,200 (average 658,300). We have been waiting for TARO to recover from the recent news of an offering of additional shares, but it might need to consolidate for a while. Nothing new for now.

Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.

All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.

stock watch
stock trading site