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trade stock, stock split
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good moves Wednesday: AGYS; DUSA; JUPM; ZBRA (bonus)
Best Plays:
1) COL: Excellent volume and accumulation.
2) PD: Can rip off some big gains.
3) PHRM: Nice base and ready to bounce off 50 day EMA.
4) KMRT: Great handle forming.
5) LMT: Testing the breakout waters.
6) TEVA: Still struggling below the 50 day EMA.
NEW PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 08/24/2004
AEOS (American Eagle Outfitters--$34.18; +0.32; optionable): Specialty apparel stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/aeos.html
After Hours: $34.03
STATUS: Breakout test. This is a new buy point for this leading stock. AEOS broke out in late July, tapped back to the 50 day EMA (30.98) and then powering ahead. The past week it has moved laterally in a nice, tight range as volume backed off. Looks super, and just looking for a volume surge through the buy point to add to positions.
Volume: 1.151M Avg Volume: 1.686M
BUY POINT: $34.32 Volume=2.5M Target=$39 Stop=$33.12
POSITION: AQU KG - Nov. $35c (45 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/aeos.html
Play Date: 08/25/2004
COL (Rockwell-Collins--$35.12; +0.94; optionable): Aerospace/defense
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/col.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Volume jumped back above average Wednesday as COL moved toward the breakout from its 30 week base. Excellent 11 to 2 accumulation in the base that used the 200 day SMA (31.34) on the low of the right leg of the double bottom. Money flow is surging higher ahead of price as COL moves for the breakout. Money flow has already broken out on the move. Very solid.
Volume: 694.2K Avg Volume: 609.772K
BUY POINT: $35.25 Volume=750K Target=$40 Stop=$34.22
POSITION: COL AG - Jan. $35c (56 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/col.html
Play Date: 08/25/2004
IMCL (Imclone--$58.11; +2.28; optionable): Biotech drugs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/imcl.html
After Hours: $58
STATUS: Test 200 day SMA. IMCL made us great money earlier in the year, but then some big names pulled out of the stock and it came on some hard times, falling 35 points from the high. It undercut the 200 day SMA (55.19) but then rebounded to retake that level. It has spent the past two weeks working laterally over the 200 day in a tight range as volume backed off lower and lower. Wednesday volume started back up as IMCL moved off of the 200 day. We are looking to trade this up to the 50 day EMA (63.21). If it gives us more we will take some gain and let the rest run for us.
Volume: 2.791M Avg Volume: 3.997M
BUY POINT: $58.48 Volume=4M Target=$63 Stop=$56.88
POSITION: QCI AL - Jan. $60c (53 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/imcl.html
Play Date: 08/25/2004
PD (Phelps Dodge--$79.84; +1.37; optionable): Copper mining
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pd.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Volume was back up near average Wednesday as PD tapped at the 50 day EMA (76.15) on the intraday low and then rebounded for a solid gain. That pushed it right to the breakout point from its 24 week base. We like the pattern, but we also really like that the stock can chew up $5 gains with ease. We are looking to trade this one using options up into the resistance range from February to April. If it breaks through we will let it run after takign some gain at the target.
Volume: 2.082M Avg Volume: 2.1M
BUY POINT: $80.35 Volume=2.8M Target=$86 Stop=$79.65
POSITION: PD AP - Jan. $80c (54 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/pd.html
Play Date: 08/25/2004
PHRM (Pharmion--$46.98; +2.58; optionable): Drugs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/phrm.html
STATUS: Double bottom. A new issue in November 2003, PHRM exploded higher in May, powering up over 50 on that breakout. It has spent the past 8 weeks consolidating that move, tapping the 50 day EMA (43.22) twice to form the double bottom legs. Solid 2 to 0 accumulation in the pattern, money flow running strongly ahead of price. Volume has crept up the past two sessions as PHRM moved off the 50 day. Love new issues in their first bases.
Volume: 438.702K Avg Volume: 515.272K
BUY POINT: $47.25 Volume=773K Target=$53.55 Stop=$45.85
POSITION: JUT LI - Dec. $45c (62 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/phrm.html
Play Date: 08/25/2004
ZBRA (Zebra Technologies--$84.82; +1.62; optionable): Computer peripherals
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/z/zbra.html
After Hours: $84.89
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. This was a bonus alert Wednesday. We had monitored ZBRA as its split is upcoming, and Wednesday it started higher on strong volume, beginning the pre-split run. Splits Thursday, but a nice 8 week pattern with excellent money flow. May run right on through the split and still a buy on a further move.
Volume: 582.792K Avg Volume: 404.318K
BUY POINT: New: $42.65 (orig pre-split price $84.68) Volume=425K Target=$90 Stop=$83.22
POSITION: ZBQ KQ - Nov. $85c (54 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/zbra.html
CONTINUING PLAYS:
Play Date: 08/18/2004
DECK (Deckers Outdoor--$29.83; +0.82; no options): Footwear
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/deck.html
After Hours: $25.67
STATUS: Ascending triangle. Has come back to tap the 50 day EMA (28.37) on the intraday low and rebounding smartly. This may be the test and rebound that finally breaks it out of its 19 week triangle that formed using the 50 day EMA to make higher and higher lows. Need to see that volume surge on the move through the buy point.
Volume: 209.644K Avg Volume: 318.318K
BUY POINT: $31.54 Volume=550K Target=$36.55 Stop=$29.95
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/deck.html
Play Date: 08/18/2004
KMRT (Kmart Holding--$77.39; +0.22; optionable): Discount variety stores.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/k/kmrt.html
After Hours: $76.65
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Continues its excellent low volume handle, setting up what we think will be an explosive breakout from its 8 week base. This stock can run like the wind when it gets going. Excellent money flow is running sharply higher. Just being patient and waiting for the volume breakout.
Volume: 1.763M Avg Volume: 2.652M
BUY POINT: $79.42 Volume=3.6M Target=$88.88 Stop=$77.85
POSITION: KTQ LP - Dec. $80c (53 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/kmrt.html
Play Date: 08/23/2004
LMT (Lockheed Martin--$54.41; +0.29; optionable): Aerospace/defense
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/lmt.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Volume was up but still below average as LMT ran to the buy point but could not hold the move. Showing great action in its short 5 week base that is the tail end of a much longer 14 month double bottom. Excellent 3 to 0 accumulation in the short pattern with volume backing off to a trickle during the handle and now showing heavier trade as it moves toward the breakout.
Volume: 1.62M Avg Volume: 1.912M
BUY POINT: $54.75 Volume=2.8M Target=$59.78 Stop=$53.42
POSITION: LMT LK - Dec. $55c (45 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/lmt.html
Play Date: 08/23/2004
PLMO (Palmone--$39.02; +0.76; optionable): Wholesale computers
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/plmo.html
After Hours: $40
STATUS: Flat/flying plateau. Continues to work laterally in the 7 week plateau, holding the 18 day EMA (38.20) as it works laterally. Volume has started to pick up the past week, indicating it is trying to set up for the next move higher. PLMO exploded out of a 2.5 month base in June, part of a base-on-base pattern that started October 2003. Excellent 5 to 1 accumulation in the pattern is setting up the next move. Solid money flow to go with the accumulation. Looking for some more big volume as it moves through the buy point and toward our initial target.
Volume: 2.217M Avg Volume: 3.648M
BUY POINT: $40.78 Volume=5.3M Target=$46.88 Stop=$39.88
POSITION: UPY KH - Nov. $40c (56 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/plmo.html
DOWNSIDE:
Play Date: 08/21/2004
MOGN (MGI Pharmaceuticals--$24.05; -0.05; optionable): Drugs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mogn.html
STATUS: Put. MOGN checked up the selling Wednesday, holding at 24 where it found some support from some prior lows in February and July. Volume was up as it held up and showed a doji. It may want to try a bounce here back up to test the 18 day EMA (24.60). Given the support it is showing at 24, we are going to look at a move before 24 on solid trade.
Volume: 1.341M Avg Volume: 1.431M
BUY POINT: New: 23.96 Volume=1.4M Target=$21.22 Stop=$25.35
POSITION: QOG VE - Oct. $25p (-66 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/mogn.html
Play Date: 08/21/2004
TEVA (Teva Pharmaceutical--$28.12; +0.22; optionable): Drugs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/teva.html
After Hours: $28.12
STATUS: Put. Showing a doji below the 18 day EMA (28.20) as TEVA has continued its low volume rise off of the massive drop two weeks back. Money flow ahs rebounded slightly, but is still very weak. Still a lot of selling ongoing. Looking for it to roll down from here on rising volume.
Volume: 3.007M Avg Volume: 5.142M
BUY POINT: $27.72 Volume=4.5M Target=$25.55 Stop=$28.35
POSITION: TVQ VF - Oct. $30p (-66 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/teva.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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trade stock
stock split
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