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us stock market, stock split
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good moves Wednesday: MIK; POT; SNDA
In each report we prepare full write-ups for those plays that look ready to move. Those that have made the move or are still setting up are discussed in the continuing play table. The purpose is to focus on those stocks that are set to make us money.
NEW PLAYS:
New Leader Plays:
Play Date: 08/26/2004
GME (Gamestop--$16.87; -0.13; optionable): Electronics stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gme.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. GME is working laterally over the 200 day SMA (16.47) the past week, forming a low volume lateral move known as a handle to its 19 week base. Solid 5 to 2 accumulation in the base shows net buyers during the pattern. Volume was low during the May, June and July at the bottom of the base, then surged as it rallied higher last week. This low volume lateral move is the one where the last sellers are shaken out, clearing the way for the move higher. Just waiting for the volume spike higher to show the breakout is on.
Volume: 77.9K Avg Volume: 265.954K
BUY POINT: $17.35 Volume=399K Target=$20.38 Stop=$16.97
POSITION: GME AW - Jan. $17.50c (46 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/gme.html
Play Date: 08/26/2004
TWP (Trex--$42.82; +0.22; optionable): Non-wood decking materials.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/twp.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. This is amazing stuff, and it is selling more and more product. It is currently in a 4 week handle to a 15 month base sporting solid 15 to 7 accumulation. Net buying of the stock as it took this long rest. The handle pulled back to the 18 day EMA (42.43), the natural support level for a pullback on these big bases. Money flow is moving higher ahead of price. Just a matter of time before TWP pulls the trigger and provides the breakout move.
Volume: 57.3K Avg Volume: 170.727K
BUY POINT: $44.05 Volume=256K Target=$50 Stop=$42.35
POSITION: TWP AI - Jan. $45c (45 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/twp.html
New Downside Plays:
Play Date: 08/26/2004
PTEK (PTEK Holdings--$8.71; -0.33; optionable): Telecom
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/ptek.html
STATUS: Put. PTEK cratered through the 200 day SMA (9.91) two weeks back and has made a rally back to the 18 day EMA (9.38) as the market moved higher, but the volume has been rather anemic. Thursday the stock turned back down on much stronger trade. Money flow is still tanking and it continues under distribution. Looking to move in on a further move lower.
Volume: 728.922K Avg Volume: 668.363K
BUY POINT: $8.68 Volume=725K Target=$7.39 Stop=$8.89
POSITION: QTE VB - Oct. $10p (-72 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ptek.html
Play Date: 08/26/2004
SYK (Stryker--$45.98; -0.96; optionable): Medical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/syk.html
STATUS: Put. SYK peaked in early July and then cratered on high volume through the 50 day EMA (48.47). It found the 200 day SMA (46.65) and has moved laterally along that level more or less ever since. It tried a move over it earlier this week and then rolled back through that level Thursday on rising though still below average volume. Very weak money flow is leading lower. Looking for SYK to follow it to the August low and give us a nice 55%ish gain.
Volume: 1.473M Avg Volume: 1.682M
BUY POINT: $45.85 Volume=1.6M Target=$42.82 Stop=$46.72
POSITION: SYK VI - Oct. $45p (-41 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/syk.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
Current Pre-Announcement Plays: In each report we look at the candidates that are in the best patterns ahead of their potential announcements. This focus on leaders in good patterns allows us to make good money even if companies do not announce the split. The key with splits is the pattern. Still gat positive moves on the announcement, but stocks in this market need to have a good pattern of accumulation to really benefit from a split announcement.
AET: Testing the break higher, holding the 10 day EMA.
BMET: Forecast 9-18-04.
BOL: Forecast 10-20-04
CME: Forecast 10-20-04
FAST: No split announced 8-24-04. Still in an excellent pattern and making a higher low at the 18 day EMA.
FDX: Forecast 9-22-04
KMRT: No split announced but still an excellent pattern.
MBT: Still researching to pinpoint the date.
MIK: No split announced 8-25-04 but a nice break higher.
NCEN: Forecast to announce a split on 10-5-04
PDCO: No split yet again on 8-26-04 before the open.
PENN: Researching to pinpoint a date.
SBUX: Sales grew just 8%. That was not good for SBUX and now we know why it broke down earlier.
UTX: Forecast 10-20-04.
VIP: Researching an exact date.
Full Write-ups: We do not cover all candidates in full in each report, but focus on those ready to make a move or are right at their forecast announcement date. This way we are focused on those stocks ready to make moves.
New Pre-Announcement Plays:
Play Date: 08/26/2004
BOL (Bausch & Lomb--$65.13; -0.47; optionable): Medical instruments (contact lenses, etc.). Forecast to announce a split on 10-20-04 before the market opens in conjunction with earnings.
BACKGROUD: Last announced a 2 for 1 split on 4-30-91 at a stock price of $80. Prior to that announced a 2 for 1 split on 10-5-83. The annual shareholder meeting was on 4-27-04 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bol.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. BOL is easing back in a nice, low volume handle this week, putting the finishing touches on a 20 week base. Accumulation in the pattern is outstanding at 8 to 1, showing heavy buying during the base and setting the foundation for a good breakout. Money flow is also outstanding, surging higher and out ahead of price. After this pullback toward the 10 day EMA (64.57) BOL will be ready to deliver the breakout move.
Volume: 196.6K Avg Volume: 385.636K
BUY POINT: $66.42 Volume=578K Target=$72 Stop=$64.44
POSITION: BOL AM - Jan. $65c (56 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/bol.html
Continuing Pre-Announcement Plays:
Play Date: 08/24/2004
BMET (Biomet--$46.04; -0.24; optionable): Medical appliances. Forecast to announce a split on 9-18-04 in conjunction with its annual shareholder meeting.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3 for 2 split on 7-9-01 in conjunction with earnings at $43. Prior to that announced a 3 for 2 split on 7-18-00 at $43. The annual shareholder meeting is scheduled on 9-18-04 at 1:30, Warsaw, IN. The company has sufficient shares for a 3 for 2 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bmet.html
After Hours: $46.92
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Still working laterally forming the handle with volume backing way off Thursday after a strong surge Wednesday looked ready to break it out of the pattern. A nice 7 week base sporting solid 3 to 0 accumulation. Looks ready, but need to see the volume return again. Still showing good price/volume action the past two weeks, up on upside sessions, down on the down days.
Volume: 782.539K Avg Volume: 1.944M
BUY POINT: $46.36 Volume=2.9M Target=$56.38 Stop=$45.12
POSITION: BIQ AI - Jan. $45c (62 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/bmet.html
Play Date: 08/24/2004
CME (Chicago Merchantile Exchange--$138.27; +1.94; optionable): Commodities, securities, currency, etc. trading. Forecast to announce a split on 10-20-04 in conjunction with earnings. The company has not confirmed this date.
BACKGROUND: It does not appear that CME has ever split its stock. The annual shareholder meeting was on 4-21-04 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cme.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Another solid pattern working laterally and forming a handle on low volume where the last sellers are shaken out. Nice 8 week base with solid 2 to 0 accumulation and surging money flow. Commodities are hot and there is a lot of trading. It can run like the wind when it gets going. Using options to leverage our position.
Volume: 322.4K Avg Volume: 625.181K
BUY POINT: $138.88 Volume=928K Target=$154 Stop=$136.38
POSITION: CME LH - Dec. $140c (46 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cme.html
Play Date: 08/18/2004
KMRT (Kmart Holding--$76.38; -1.01; optionable): Discount variety stores. Researching new split date, but an excellent pattern still.
BACKGROUND: This is the new K-Mart. There are no prior splits, but it is at that $75 level that is the new 'in' level to announce splits.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/k/kmrt.html
After Hours: $76.50
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. And yet another stock working laterally on very low volume in the handle to an 8 week base. Surging money flow and a nice pattern indicate it is just a matter of waiting it out for the breakout move.
Volume: 984.488K Avg Volume: 2.66M
BUY POINT: $79.42 Volume=3.6M Target=$88.88 Stop=$77.85
POSITION: KTQ LP - Dec. $80c (53 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/kmrt.html
PRE-SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 08/24/2004
CFC (Countrywide Financial--$69.45; +0.73; optionable): Mortgage investment. Splits 2:1 on 8-31-04
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cfc.html
After Hours: $68.78
STATUS: 50 day EMA test. Continues its move in a tight range over the 50 day EMA (68.61), starting higher Thursday but without attendant volume. If it continues higher on some better volume it is a buy.
Volume: 1.292M Avg Volume: 2.559M
BUY POINT: $69.35 Volume=2.7M Target=$74.38 Stop=$68.22
POSITION: CFU JX - Oct. $66.62c (66 delta) or CFU JN - Oct. $70c (45 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cfc.html
POST SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 08/25/2004
SONC (Sonic Corp.--$22.69; -0.09; optionable): Burger joints
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sonc.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Continues the handle formation on lower volume, holding over the 50 day SMA (22.53) in a very tight range. Nice looking 6 month base, and this handle is doing a good job of finishing it off. Accumulation is a solid 7 to 3 showing buyers moving in during the base. Looking for a strong volume breakout to enter this stock that time and again is a market leader.
Volume: 223.067K Avg Volume: 342.409K
BUY POINT: $23.28 Volume=450K Target=$26.35 Stop=$22.44
POSITION: ZSQ LX - Dec. $22.50c (60 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/sonc.html
Play Date: 08/21/2004
RIMM (Research in Motion--$62.38; -0.99; optionable): Blackberries
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/rimm.html
After Hours: $62.3
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Has formed a nice lateral handle this week over the 50 day SMA (61.23). Nice 8 week base with money flow that continues to run higher. Need some more volume as it moves through the buy point. Getting better and better.
Volume: 6.782M Avg Volume: 9.273M
BUY POINT: $63.52 Volume=10M Target=$72 Stop=$61.04
POSITION: RUP LZ - Dec. $62.50c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/rimm.html
Play Date: 08/24/2004
URBN (Urban Outfitters--$30.06; +0.82; optionable): Specialty apparel stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/u/urbn.html
After Hours: $29.29
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Great looking 8 week base that formed at the 50 day EMA (28.39). One of those specialty retailers that is outperforming the others and is a market leader. Starting to move up off the 18 day EMA (28.99) on a bit better volume. Looking good.
Volume: 742.011K Avg Volume: 1.55M
BUY POINT: $30.28 Volume=2.2M Target=$35 Stop=$28.98
POSITION: URQ LF - Dec. $30c (47 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/urbn.html
Play Date: 08/23/2004
WCN (Waste Connections--$29; +0.14; optionable): Waste Management
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wcn.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. A post-split play, WCN split in late June and is now working laterally above the 50 day EMA (28.54) in a very flat and tight handle. Volume surged Thursday as money flow is shooting higher, a 'get ready' spike telling us to get ready for the breakout move.
Volume: 542.9K Avg Volume: 321.681K
BUY POINT: $29.06 Volume=400K Target=$32.15 Stop=$28.35
POSITION: GWC JY - Oct. $26.62c (95 delta) or WCN AF - Jan. $30c (35 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/wcn.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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us stock market
stock split
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