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Begin part 2 of 2
THE PLAYS
Good moves Friday: ARO; GENZ; GRA; MCIP; PMTI; SAPE
Thursday night play results:
BOL: Took a breather but still looks super.
CSAR: Volume was good but unable to push higher.
WCN: Nice breakout; volume so-so, but good enough given Thursday trade.
PTEK: Continued selling on high volume but managed to rebound to recover much of the loss in the afternoon session.
Upside:
Play Date: 08/28/2004
AVN (Avanir Pharma--$2.31; +0.09; no options): Drugs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/avn.html
STATUS: Breakout test. AVN exploded out of a 6.5 month base Tuesday, surging on tremendous trade. Accumulation in the base is an outstanding 10 to 3, showing solid buying during the pattern. That buying paid off as the strong breakout showed. It fell back Thursday on lower volume, and continued lower Friday to start the session. It tapped the 10 day EMA (2.08) on the low and rebounded for a gain. Looks as if it is ready to resume the breakout move. Strong money flow and a relative strength breakout. Looking for it to continue the move on solid trade to start positions.
Volume: 1.037M Avg Volume: 497.743K
BUY POINT: $2.36 Volume=1M Target=$3.48 Stop=$2.19
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/avn.html
Play Date: 08/28/2004
ECIL (ECI Telecom--$6.98; +0.14; no options): Telecom processing systems
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/ecil.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Taking another look at ECIL as it has persevered, fighting off July and early August selling to form a more extended but still solid handle to its 30 week base. Strong 9 to 5 accumulation shows net buying during the base, and money flow is racing higher ahead of price. Price/volume action has been solid the past three weeks with some big upside volume sessions. Indeed, the week closed out with two gains on above average trade. Looks ready to make the breakout over the June highs, the pivot point in the pattern.
Volume: 328.281K Avg Volume: 296.856K
BUY POINT: $7.12 Volume=450K Target=$8.55 Stop=$7.89
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/ecil.html
Play Date: 08/28/2004
SCSC (Scansource--$61.51; +2.01; optionable): Wholesale computers
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/scsc.html
After Hours: $61.35
STATUS: Test 18 day EMA. SCSC showed excellent strength in August, overcoming some sharp selling around its earnings release, advancing back close to an all-time high. It has formed something of a short, 7 week reverse head and shoulders following the break higher from a 5.5 month cup with handle in June. Despite the selling three weeks back, accumulation in the base is a strong 4 to 0; that tells us that buyers have been moving in, taking advantage of the abrupt pullback to the 200 day SMA and sharp rebound. After that move it has eased back to test the 18 day EMA (59.34). Friday it held that level and then rebounded on stronger, above average volume. Looks ready to follow its strong money flow higher and provide us a nice entry point.
Volume: 195.018K Avg Volume: 157.595K
BUY POINT: $61.88 Volume=236K Target=$69 Stop=$59.22
POSITION: UHI LL - Dec. $60c (61 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/scsc.html
Downside:
Play Date: 08/28/2004
ATRX (Atrix Labs--$29.87; -1.53; optionable): Drug delivery
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/atrx.html
After Hours: $29.87
STATUS: Put. ATRX has been moving along quite well, and after rallying to a new high in late June it started to form a new base. That was interrupted Friday as ATRX reversed an attempted Thursday move higher and broke some support at 30 on rising, above average volume. Looking for a quick move lower here toward the 200 day SMA (27.38), but want to see the volume continue as it does.
Volume: 885.759K Avg Volume: 624.209K
BUY POINT: $29.74 Volume=700K Target=$27.65 Stop=$30.15
POSITION: OQF JF - Oct. $30p (53 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/atrx.html
Play Date: 08/28/2004
JBLU (Jetblue Airways--$24.28; -1.07; optionable): Regional airline
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/jblu.html
After Hours: $24.32
STATUS: Put. Stalled at the 200 day SMA back in late June and sold off near $10 in July. It rebounded this month back to the 200 day (26.49). Volume was low just as in the overall market. Tuesday through Thursday it tapped toward the 200 day SMA but really was not close to trying to break through that key level. Friday it turned lower on rising, above average volume, breaking back through the 50 day EMA (25.14) and the 18 day EMA (24.73) in the process. Looks ready to give us a quick move down to the August lows at 22.
Volume: 2.422M Avg Volume: 1.777M
BUY POINT: $24.19 Volume=2M Target=$22 Stop=$24.74
POSITION: JGQ VE - Oct. $25p (-54 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/jblu.html
CONTINUING PLAY LIST
* * SPREADSHEET DOWNLOAD * * *
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http://investmenthouse.com/ihalerts/table.php
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http://www.investmenthouse.com/rescue/rescue.php3
LEGEND FOR CONTINUING PLAY TABLE
DATE: date play first appeared on report.
PLAY: Denotes the type of pattern or play.
Upside play types: Asc Tri =Ascending triangle; BO=Breakout; Cup=Cup base; Cup hdl=Cup w/handle; DB hdl=Double bottom w/handle; Dbl btm=Double bottom; Flat=Flat base; FlyPlat=Flying Plateau; Pennant=Pennant; Rv H&S=Reverse head & shoulders; Saucer=Saucer base; Test 18=Testing 18 day MVA; Test 50=Testing 50 day MVA; Test BO=Testing the breakout (could be 10 day MVA test, etc.)
Downside play types: CCall=Covered Call; Dsc Tri=Descending triangle; Dbl Top=Double top; H&S=Head & shoulders; Put (generic downside);
PIVOT=Buy point
Tgt=Target stock price for the play. Applies to stock and options.
Vol=Volume for the most recent session.
TgtV=Target volume to enter the play.
Stop=Stop advisory point. This is advisory and we may or may not exit a play if it hits this level depending upon market conditions.
PLAY STATUS: Buy not hit (stock has not hit buy point); Buy not issued (stock has hit buy point but did not enter due to weak volume, poor intraday action, poor market action); Current (ongoing play already entered); Entered today (entered the play that session); Exited (closed the position); Target hit (play hit initial target; will note if took all or partial gain or let run further); Trailing stop (exited using a trailing stop loss).
Upside Plays
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
AEOS 07/27 Flat 34.4 +0.26 31.18 36.32 1.1M 2.3M 32.82
Current. Continue with the uptrend on lower, below average volume.
AGYS 08/14 Test BO 15.36 +0.32 15.16 17.84 205K 276K 14.52
Current. Bounced off the 10 day MVA for a nice gain on lower, but average volume. Still in good shape, but would like to see rebound with more volume.
APCS 08/19 Flat 8.24 +0.09 8.32 9.98 94K 2.2M 7.95
Buy Not Issued. Bounced off the 10 day MVA and rallied on very low volume holding at some resistance.
ARO 08/24 Asc Bse 33.75 +0.83 32.31 36.75 996K 1.6M 32.12
Current. Nice move up the 10 day MVA on rising, but average volume.
BEAV 08/10 Test BO 10.91 +0.06 10.29 12.38 168K 600K 10.66
Current. Making lateral move just above the 10 day MVA on lower, below average volume.
BGC 08/07 Cup hdl 10.2 +0.02 10.29 12.38 150K 581K 9.97
Current. Making a lateral move on lower, below average volume.
BOL 08/26 DB hdl 65.76 +0.63 66.42 72 140K 578K 64.44
Buy Not Hit. Moving up on lower, below average volume. Still in the pattern.
BSTE 08/18 Flat 46.94 +0.14 46.91 52.68 175K 496K 46.42
Current. Beginning to make a lateral move along the 10 day MVA on very low volume.
CLF 08/16 Cup hdl 66.76 +1.36 66.14 74 192K 454K 65.95
Current. Bounced off the 10 day MVA for a nice gain on lower, below average volume. May be ready to breakout.
CME 08/24 DB hdl 136.5 -1.77 138.88 154 202K 928K 136.38
Buy Not Hit. Pullback on very low volume. Still in good shape.
COL 08/25 DB hdl 34.73 -0.02 35.25 40 279K 750K 34.22
Buy Not Hit. Making a lateral move on lower, below average volume showing a tight doji. In the pattern.
COO 08/23 Test 50 58.5 +0.24 59.28 65.35 608K 650K 57.82
Buy Not Hit. More volatile session tapping 57.36 at the intraday low and rallied back showing a doji on the 18 day MVA on much stronger above average volume. Doji may indicate a change in pattern.
CSAR 08/26 Test BO 16.01 -0.06 16.22 19 240K 175K 15.08
Buy Not Issued. Tapped 15.60 at the low and rallied back showing a doji on lower, but still strong volume. Making a lateral move. Some resistance at 16.
CSAR 08/16 Test BO 16.01 -0.06 15.21 17.72 240K 175K 15.08
Current.
DUSA 08/25 DB hdl 11 +0.11 11.15 13.25 264K 310K 10.68
Current. Moving up holding at resistance on lower, but still above average volume. In good shape.
ESL 07/24 Cup hdl 32.23 +0.32 30.88 35.22 55K 150K 31.48
Current. Continue with uptrend making a 52 week high on lower, below average volume.
FAST 08/21 Flat 61.52 +0.03 62.75 70.72 355K 937K 60.45
Buy Not Hit. Making a lateral move along the 10 day MVA on low volume. Looking good.
GENZ 08/24 Cup hdl 54.58 +1.01 53.43 60 2.3M 3.2M 53.45
Current. Nice move up the 10 day MVA on rising, but below average volume.
GRA 08/25 Cup 8.2 +0.96 6.55 7.85 4.6M 1M 7.85
Target Hit. Took half of an excellent gain on a one-day play. Letting the rest run with a powerful surge.
INSP 08/18 Cup 38.88 +0.36 38.38 43.55 410K 1.5M 38.45
Current. Consolidating above the 10 day MVA on lower, below average volume.
ISRG 08/09 Test BO 24.61 -0.28 22.71 26.05 431K 400K 24.05
Current. More volatile session testing the 10 day MVA intraday and rallied back on rising, but below average volume. Stock is consolidating.
JCP 08/25 Asc Tri 39.35 -0.02 40.12 44.95 1.8M 4.2M 38.89
Buy Not Hit. Tested the 18 day MVA intraday and rallied back showing a doji on the 10 day MVA on lower, below average volume. Making a lateral move.
JUPM 08/14 Asc Tri 14.61 -1.7 14.15 17.22 1.9M 513K 15.47
Current. Gapped down and continued to move down testing the 18 day MVA intraday and rallied back on lower, but still strong volume. Did not exit because stock showed strength coming off the day's low. Will let it rebound for at a minimum a better exit.
KMRT 08/18 Dbl btm 77.2 +0.82 79.42 88.88 701K 3.6M 77.85
Buy Not Hit. Making a lateral move above the 10 day MVA on low volume.
MBT 08/07 Cup 121.82 +0.65 122.65 135 189K 500K 121.22
Current. Tested the 18 day MVA intraday showing a doji on lower, below average volume. Still in the pattern.
MCIP 08/12 Test 50 17.71 +0.22 17.11 20 3.1M 5.1M 17.08
Current. Nice move up the 10 day MVA on rising, but below average volume.
MDCC 08/05 Cup 23.78 -1.04 21.38 24.28 526K 225K 23.48
Current. Thudded down on stronger above average volume. May test back to the 10 day MVA.
NUS 08/11 Test BO 26.05 +0.04 26.15 30.18 137K 475K 24.55
Buy Not Issued. Tested the 18 day MVA intraday and rallied back showing a tight doji on the 10 day MVA on very low volume. Making a lateral move.
OPTN 07/24 Test BO 16.08 +0.28 16.58 20 102K 175K 16.24
Buy Not Issued. Bounced off the 50 day MVA and rallied holding the 18 day MVA for a nice gain on rising, but below average volume. May be ready for a breakout.
PHRM 08/25 Dbl btm 47.53 -0.65 47.25 53.55 400K 773K 45.85
Buy Not Issued. Pullback on rising, but below average volume. Needs to continue to pullback before we can enter the play.
PLMO 08/23 Flat 38.25 +0.11 40.78 46.88 1.9M 5.3M 39.88
Buy Not Hit. Making a lateral move on the 10 day MVA on low volume. The stock has not performed but will keep our eye on it.
PMTI 08/23 Dbl btm 19.06 +0.62 18.44 21.95 256K 222K 18.24
Current. Another great move up the 10 day MVA on lower, but still above average volume.
POOL 08/23 Cup 44.64 +0.3 44.94 48.92 178K 300K 43.22
Buy Not Issued. Gapped down at the open and rallied back on low volume. Still in uptrend.
PPDI 07/24 Test BO 34.12 +0.07 34.22 40.25 239K 650K 33.55
Buy Not Issued. Tested the 18 day MVA intraday as stock made a lateral move above the 10 day MVA on low volume.
QCOM 08/14 Flat 38.43 +0.5 35.42 40.48 11M 11M 37.15
Current. Continue with uptrend on rising, but below average volume. Came off the day's high of 38.85.
RAI 08/07 Test BO 73.81 +0.44 72.22 79 412K 2M 70.89
Buy Not Issued. Continue with low volume ascent. Have not entered the play because the volume is not there. Will drop for now and let it test back.
RIMM 08/21 Dbl btm 62.93 +0.55 63.52 72 3M 10M 61.04
Current. Making lateral move above the 10 day MVA on very low volume
ROK 08/03 Asc Tri 39.26 +0.26 38.08 43.95 712K 1.3M 38.32
Current. Continue with uptrend making a 52 week high on low volume.
SAPE 08/09 Test BO 7.83 +0.22 7.04 8.54 1.8M 1.5M 7.33
Current. Moving up the 10 day MVA on rising, but above average volume. Looking good.
SNDA 07/31 Cup hdl 23.05 -0.4 19.51 23.32 1.4M 500K 21.87
Current. Pullback testing the 10 day MVA intraday and rallied back on lower, but still above average volume. Still in uptrend.
STSI 08/04 Cup hdl 5.01 +0.04 4.98 6 265K 400K 4.72
Current. Moving up the 10 day MVA on lower, below average volume holding at some resistance.
SYMC 08/10 DB hdl 48.39 +0.38 47.83 53.88 1.4M 7.6M 47.44
Current. Moving up on very low volume showing a tight doji. Beginning to consolidate.
TDS 08/02 FlyPlat 77.33 -0.18 77.46 82.38 65K 265K 76.55
Current. Pullback testing the 18 day MVA intraday and rallied back holding the 10 day MVA on rising, but very low volume. Still in good shape.
TRA 08/09 Cup hdl 7.23 +0.08 7.04 8.45 350K 450K 6.98
Current. Volatile session testing the 10 day MVA intraday and rallied back showing a doji on lower, below average volume.
TUNE 08/17 Asc Tri 5.09 -0.21 4.58 5.48 315K 758K 4.78
Current. Gapped up at the open, but reversed on lower, below average volume. Still in uptrend.
URBN 08/24 DB hdl 30.9 +0.84 31.36 36 1.4M 2.2M 29.16
Entered today. Big gap up at the open showing a doji on much stronger, but average volume.
WBSN 08/14 Cup hdl 39.56 +0.81 39.58 43.45 509K 735K 38.46
Current. Bounced off the 10 day MVA for a nice move on much stronger, but still below average volume. moving up on rising volume after testing the 10 day MVA.
WITS 08/21 Flat 13.71 +0.06 14.12 16.95 149K 459K 13.88
Buy Not Issued. Moving up the 10 day MVA on lower, below average volume.
ZBRA 08/19 Dbl btm 57.43 +0.98 56.43 60 317K 425K 55.42
Current. Nice move up the 10 day MVA on lower, below average volume.
Downside Plays
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
COG 08/16 Put 39.74 +0.53 38.95 36.65 105K 300K 39.88
Current. Relief bounce on very low volume holding below the 18 day MVA. May test the 18 day MVA, before turning over. Still very weak.
ERES 08/21 Put 20.82 +0.45 19.98 17.88 403K 1.5M 20.48
Buy Not Issued. Relief bounce testing the 200 day MVA intraday, but could not hold the gain on very low volume. Holding below the 18 day MVA. Needs to roll over here.
PH 08/19 Put 55.06 +0.2 53.48 51.25 348K 800K 54.85
Buy Not Issued. Bounced on low volume holding at resistance. Will drop for now, but will keep our eyes on it. Needs to sell on higher volume.
PTEK 08/26 Put 8.61 -0.1 8.58 7.28 918K 725K 8.98
Entered today. Started down early, we moved in, and it fell harder.
Then it managed a rebound in afternoon market bounce.
Still very weak.
RSAS 08/24 Put 15.93 -0.2 15.88 13.71 695K 935K 16.11
Buy Not Issued. New buy point. It is starting to break through support near 16 on stronger volume.
TEVA 08/21 Put 28.39 +0.19 27.95 25.55 1.9M 4.5M 28.45
Buy Not Issued. New buy point as it shows a doji after a very low volume rebound.
TLCV 08/16 Put 8.64 -0.02 8.75 7.47 201K 600K 9.04
Buy Not Issued. Moving down holding the 10 day MVA on low volume. Stock has not made the move we were looking for with good volume so will drop.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your IH Alerts Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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