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us stock market, trade stock
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good moves Monday: AVN; ENWV; ATRX
Best Plays:
1) LSTR: Volume starting to creep higher as it comes off the 50 day EMA.
2) DV: Ready to roll over at the 10 day EMA.
3) CSAR: Nice test of the breakout.
4) EXBD: Excellent breakout test.
5) AMSG: Doji below the 18 day EMA.
6) TEVA: Rolling over at the 18 day EMA.
NEW PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 08/30/2004
LSTR (Landstar System--$51.80; -0.15; optionable): Trucking
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/lstr.html
After Hours: $51.80
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Volume has tapered the past two weeks as LSTR works on the handle to its 8 week base where it is setting up for a new breakout to a new all-time high. Outstanding 4 to 1 accumulation in the base shows strong buying as the stock digests its strong March to July run, weeds out the short term holders, and sets up for the next run. Money flow is strong as well, moving up ahead of the stock price. Relative strength is ready to breakout as well. Looks super.
Volume: 158.708K Avg Volume: 222.545K
BUY POINT: $52.45 Volume=334K Target=$58 Stop=$50.98
POSITION: QRY AJ - Jan. $50c (65 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/lstr.html
Play Date: 08/30/2004
OMN (Omnova Solutions--$5.95; -0.09; no options): Specialty chemicals
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/o/omn.html
STATUS: Flat. OMN has been moving higher in a series of flat bases since mid-2003. The most recent is a 10 week base formed over the 50 day EMA (5.99). Accumulation in the pattern is excellent at 5 to 1, showing buyers moving into the stock during the pattern. Over the past 5 weeks volume has trailed off as the stock has held its base. A shakeout in early August, and then it recovered the 50 day EMA, now moving in a tight, narrow range. Monday it showed a tight doji on the 50 day EMA. It is setting up very well, and we are looking for a strong volume breakout move.
Volume: 51.8K Avg Volume: 91.272K
BUY POINT: $6.29 Volume=137K Target=$7.56 Stop=$5.85
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/omn.html
Downside:
Play Date: 08/30/2004
DV (Devry--$19.67; -0.34; optionable): Education and training
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dv.html
STATUS: Put. DV double topped in the spring, tried to hang on into early summer, but then failed as it fell below the 200 day SMA (27.01). DV is one of the weaker of its group, frequently disappointing with earnings. It has been bouncing down the 18 day EMA (20.40) in July and August, now coming back to make yet another test of that level, moving up on mostly lower volume. It showed a doji Friday below the 18 day and started lower Monday. Volume was not there Monday, but we are looking for it to move higher as it continues down with the trend. Don't need huge volume as the trend is pretty well established.
Volume: 293.6K Avg Volume: 564.181K
BUY POINT: $19.55 Volume=400K Target=$18 Stop=$19.95
POSITION: DV VD - Oct. $20p (-54 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/dv.html
Play Date: 08/30/2004
VLO (Valero Energy--$64.85; -1.19; optionable): Oil and gas refining
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/v/vlo.html
STATUS: Put. VLO is trying to hold support near 65, moving laterally the past two weeks as the 10 day EMA (65.67) and the 18 day EMA (66.80) press down upon it. The stock is under distribution and money flow is diving ahead of it. With product prices already weaker than oil and ready to move lower, we anticipate the stock will do the same.
Volume: 1.256M Avg Volume: 2.255M
BUY POINT: $64.62 Volume=2.5M Target=$64.52 Stop=$65.12
POSITION: VLO VM - Oct. $65p (-49 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/vlo.html
CONTINUING PLAYS:
Play Date: 08/26/2004
CSAR (Caraustar--$15.65; -0.36; no options): Paper and paper products
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/csar.html
After Hours: $15.65
STATUS: Breakout test. Easing back the past two sessions after a solid move last Thursday on strong volume. Testing the move out of a 7.5 month cup with handle base. Money flow is surging higher and relative strength has broken out as well. Volume has been behaving very well, showing some big spikes on upside sessions. It has come back to tap the 10 day EMA (15.51) on the Monday low on low volume. It is just waiting for an upside session to make the breakout.
Volume: 112.465K Avg Volume: 127.863K
BUY POINT: $16.22 Volume=175K Target=$19 Stop=$15.08
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/csar.html
Play Date: 08/28/2004
DRAX (Draxis Health--$4.43; -0.09; no options): Drug products
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/drax.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Gapped higher Monday, but there was no volume and DRAX could not hold the move. It ended up basically flat on the session, still in the handle of its 22 week base that used the 200 day SMA (4.10) as support. Accumulation in the base is a solid 4 to 2, indicating net buying during the pattern. Money flow is strong, leading higher ahead of price. Volume has surged higher mid-August as it ran up to form the right side of the base, and then trade backed off as the stock moved laterally over the 10 day EMA (4.47) in a very tight range. That is precisely the volume you want to see as it completes its base. A breakout and run takes it to a multiyear high.
Volume: 45.365K Avg Volume: 148.181K
BUY POINT: $4.78 Volume=226K Target=$5.75 Stop=$4.45
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/drax.html
Play Date: 08/28/2004
EXBD (Corporate Executive Board--$58.01; -0.16; optionable): Research and education on corporate strategy
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/exbd.html
After Hours: $58.24
STATUS: Breakout test. Still in the nice, lower volume breakout test. Monday EXBD tapped the 18 day EMA (57.50) on the low and rebounded to close with a slight loss. Excellent breakout from a short 6 week double bottom. This last pattern comes after the breakout from a much longer 7 month base EXBD broke from in May. Solid 3 to 1 accumulation in the last base set up the move, and now EXBD is making an orderly test of the breakout. Money flow is strong as well, moving ahead of price. Very nice test and just needs some volume as it breaks higher.
Volume: 164.23K Avg Volume: 209.772K
BUY POINT: $58.42 Volume=250K Target=$63.38 Stop=$57.89
POSITION: EBU LL - Dec. $60c (41 delta), low OI
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/exbd.html
Play Date: 08/18/2004
KMRT (Kmart Holding--$76.06; -1.14; optionable): Discount variety stores.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/k/kmrt.html
After Hours: $76.50
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. And KMRT continues to build its handle, holding over the 10 day EMA (75.71) in its 8 week base. Money flow remains strong as it forms this handle. Volume is still well below average, but Monday it started to creep higher. Really nice pattern. We are still waiting patiently for the volume to kick up and the stock to show us a breakdown.
Volume: 1.229M Avg Volume: 2.65M
BUY POINT: $79.42 Volume=3.6M Target=$88.88 Stop=$77.85
POSITION: KTQ LP - Dec. $80c (53 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/kmrt.html
Play Date: 08/25/2004
PHRM (Pharmion--$47.19; -0.34; optionable): Drug manufacturers
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/phrm.html
STATUS: Double bottom. PHRM looks to be starting the handle to its 8 week base, easing laterally and slightly lower on very low trade as it works above the 50 day EMA (43.72). Excellent money flow is leading higher and higher as the volume turns lower. Love to see quiet trade as it finishes its base. Outstanding 4 to 0 accumulation in the base shows buyers quietly moving in as it forms up for the next breakout and run.
Volume: 138.958K Avg Volume: 496.909K
BUY POINT: $48.36 Volume=773K Target=$53.55 Stop=$45.85
POSITION: JUT LI - Dec. $45c (62 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/phrm.html
Play Date: 08/21/2004
PLMD (Polymedica--$30.67; +0.31; optionable): Drugs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/plmd.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Volume was up Monday as PLMD tested the breakout waters, moving to 31.34 on the high. It was not able to hold the move to the close, however, as the market struggled in the afternoon. Still a very nice 9.5 month base with surging money flow and outstanding 11-2 accumulation. Looks ready to move.
Volume: 282.421K Avg Volume: 230.318K
BUY POINT: $30.79 Volume=357K Target=$35 Stop=$29.75
POSITION: PM LF - Dece. $30c (50 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/plmd.html
DOWNSIDE:
Play Date: 08/28/2004
AMSG (Amsurg Corp.--$22.05; -0.25; optionable): Hospitals
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/amsg.html
STATUS: Put. Tapped at the 18 day EMA (22.43) intraday and then faded, but on even lower, below average volume. We decided to hold off and see if we could get a more forceful move with some more volume. Still set up to fail, however, as it makes another rebound to test the 18 day EMA in its 6 week downtrend using that MA as resistance. Ugly distribution, and it looks as if AMSG is ready to take the plunge. That should give us a 45%ish gain.
Volume: 181.404K Avg Volume: 262.681K
BUY POINT: $22.12 Volume=300K Target=$20.55 Stop=$22.53
POSITION: KKO VX - Oct. $22.50p (-53 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/amsg.html
Play Date: 08/24/2004
RSAS (RSA Security--$15.55; -0.38; optionable): Security software services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/rsas.html
After Hours: $15.55
STATUS: Put. RSAS was heading lower Monday, breaking below 16 more definitively though no volume as it made the move. Still quite weak with money flow fading ahead of the stock and relative strength continuing its nosedive. Still looking to enter if it continues lower; would like to see more trade but it is fading even without volume running higher.
Volume: 587.69K Avg Volume: 878.454K
BUY POINT: New: $15.48 (orig. $15.88) Volume=935K Target=$13.71 Stop=$16.11
POSITION: QSD VW - Oct. $17.50p (-69 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/rsas.html
Play Date: 08/21/2004
TEVA (Teva Pharmaceutical--$27.71; -0.68; optionable): Drugs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/teva.html
After Hours: $27.80
STATUS: Put. Turning down at the 18 day EMA (28.17) after tapping at that level again on the session high. Volume started edging higher as it made the turn down from this key level. Under distribution and money flow is rolling over below the stock. Nice but want to see a bit more volume as it heads lower.
Volume: 2.456M Avg Volume: 5.06M
BUY POINT: New: $27.62 (orig. $27.72) Volume=4.5M Target=$25.55 Stop=$28.35
POSITION: TVQ VF - Oct. $30p (-66 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/teva.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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