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Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good moves Friday: ARO; POT; URBN; WCN; ZBRA
In each report we prepare full write-ups for those plays that look ready to move. Those that have made the move or are still setting up are discussed in the continuing play table. The purpose is to focus on those stocks that are set to make us money.
NEW PLAYS:
New Post-Split Plays:
Play Date: 08/31/2004
BCR (C.R. Bard--$56.1; +1.17; optionable): Medical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bcr.html
STATUS: Cup. Volume was up Tuesday as BCR continued its move off of the bottom of its 12 week base. A strong move higher in 2003 and through the end of May, it needed this breather to reset and prepare for the next move. Strong money flow is leading higher, and we are looking to start a partial position on the continued move here and then on a breakout over 58. A market leader looking for another all-time high.
Volume: 582.9K Avg Volume: 638.272K
BUY POINT: $56.55 Volume=800K Target=$62 Stop=$55.89
POSITION: BCR AK - Jan. $55c (63 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/bcr.html
Play Date: 08/31/2004
DHR (Danaher--$51.42; +1.07; optionable): General building materials
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dhr.html
STATUS: Cup. Volume us jumping back above average as DHR starts the breakout from its 8 week base that formed roughly at the 50 day EMA (49.58) and showing great 3 to 1 accumulation. Money flow is also strong, running higher ahead of the stock, paving the way. Nice second base following the June breakout from a flat base. Relative strength is breaking out with the stock, a very good corroboration of the move.
Volume: 1.419M Avg Volume: 1.242M
BUY POINT: $51.74 Volume=1.5M Target=$57 Stop=$50.22
POSITION: DHR LJ - Dec. $50c (71 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/dhr.html
Play Date: 08/31/2004
QCOM (Qualcom--$38.05; +0.34; optionable): Telecom equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/q/qcom.html
After Hours: $38.03
STATUS: Flying plateau. A market leader, QCOM surged out of a 7 week flat base 8 sessions back, now coming back to the 10 day EMA (37.42) on the Monday and Tuesday intraday lows then rebounding Friday on rising though still below average volume. Surging money flow continues to move higher ahead of price. This modest pullback to the 10 day EMA works to shakeout the quick profit takers. Looking to move in on the next volume move higher.
Volume: 9.517M Avg Volume: 16.774M
BUY POINT: New: $38.75 (orig. positions: $35.42) Volume=11M Target=New positions: $45 (orig. positions $40.48) Stop=$37.15
POSITION: AAO AH - Jan. $40c (50 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/qcom.html
Play Date: 08/31/2004
SLXP (Salix Pharmaceuticals--$23.39; +1.21; optionable): Drug related products
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/slxp.html
After Hours: $23.25
STATUS: Breakout test. SLXP made the breakout two weeks back from an 11 week double bottom with handle base. It rallied to 24 on the high and then faded back to test the 18 day EMA (22.09) Monday. Tuesday it shot off that level on rising, above average volume. It looks ready to continue the breakout run.
Volume: 361.695K Avg Volume: 404.363K
BUY POINT: $23.78 Volume=475K Target=$28 Stop=$22.38
POSITION: PTO AY - Jan. $23.38c (56 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/slxp.html
Continuing Leader Plays:
Play Date: 08/17/2004
ISCA (Intl. Speedway--$52.9; -0.05; optionable): Raceways
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/isca.html
After Hours: $52.89
STATUS: Flat base. Soccer moms and NASCAR dads. ISCA appeals to the latter. It is tightening its range in its 7 week flat base that has formed above the 50 day EMA (51). The range is tightening as ISCA makes a higher low above the 18 day EMA (52.20). Positive 2 to 1 accumulation in the base and strong money flow leading ahead of the stock. Tuesday volume jumped higher (though still below average) as ISCA showed a doji over the 18 day. This higher low and return of volume have sparked our attention that it may be ready to make its move.
Volume: 84.884K Avg Volume: 120.409K
BUY POINT: $53.46 Volume=200K Target=$58.48 Stop=$52.12
POSITION: QWY LJ - Dec. $50c (77 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/isca.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
Current Pre-Announcement Plays: In each report we look at the candidates that are in the best patterns ahead of their potential announcements. This focus on leaders in good patterns allows us to make good money even if companies do not announce the split. The key with splits is the pattern. Still gat positive moves on the announcement, but stocks in this market need to have a good pattern of accumulation to really benefit from a split announcement.
AET: Moving laterally over the 10 day EMA testing the break higher. Volume started up Tuesday. May be ready to continue.
BMET: Forecast 9-18-04.
BOL: Forecast 10-20-04
CME: Forecast 10-20-04
EBAY:
FAST: No split announced 8-24-04. Researching the next date. Looks ready.
FDX: Forecast 9-22-04
KMRT: No split announced but continues its very nice handle.
MBT: Excellent break higher.
MIK: Researching next possible date.
NCEN: Forecast to announce a split on 10-5-04
PENN: Researching to pinpoint a date.
SCSC: Forecast 10-12-04.
UTX: Forecast 10-20-04.
VIP: Researching an exact date.
Full Write-ups: We do not cover all candidates in full in each report, but focus on those ready to make a move or are right at their forecast announcement date. This way we are focused on those stocks ready to make moves.
New Pre-Announcement Plays:
Play Date: 08/31/2004
EBAY (Ebay--$86.54; +1.03; optionable): Internet auctions. Forecast 10-20-04 after the close.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for 1 split on 7-24-03 in conjunction with earnings at a stock price of $115. Prior to that announced a 2 for 1 split on 4-25-00 at a stock price of $153 and a 3 for 1 split on 1-26-99 at a stock price of $200. The annual shareholder meeting was on 6-24-04 at which time additional shares were authorized.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/ebay.html
After Hours: $86.51
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. EBAY has overcome the earnings problems of the market in July by quietly scratching out the current 8 week base. It used the 200 day SMA (73.28) as support for the two legs. It is now working laterally on below average volume, forming the handle where the move seems to stall. That gets the last sellers out of the pattern. Money flow is moving higher and higher ahead of price, even as it moves laterally to form this handle. It was an early leader in the 2003 breakout and run. It looks to be setting up as an early leader here.
Volume: 7.182M Avg Volume: 9.043M
BUY POINT: $87.12 Volume=14M Target=$99.45 Stop=$84.98
POSITION: XBA AR - Jan. $90c (41 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ebay.html
Continuing Pre-Announcement Plays:
Play Date: 08/24/2004
BMET (Biomet--$45.65; +0.32; optionable): Medical appliances. Forecast to announce a split on 9-18-04 in conjunction with its annual shareholder meeting.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3 for 2 split on 7-9-01 in conjunction with earnings at $43. Prior to that announced a 3 for 2 split on 7-18-00 at $43. The annual shareholder meeting is scheduled on 9-18-04 at 1:30, Warsaw, IN. The company has sufficient shares for a 3 for 2 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bmet.html
After Hours: $45.85
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Still working on the handle to the 7 week base, easing back toward the 18 day EMA (44.79) on the Tuesday low and then rebounding on rising volume for a positive gain. Good looking base with solid 3 to 0 accumulation showing net buyers in the base. Solid price/volume action the past two weeks, up on upside sessions, down on the down days, and that is helping set the stage for the breakout.
Volume: 1.206M Avg Volume: 1.93M
BUY POINT: $46.36 Volume=2.9M Target=$56.38 Stop=$45.12
POSITION: BIQ AI - Jan. $45c (62 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/bmet.html
Play Date: 08/26/2004
BOL (Bausch & Lomb--$65.95; +0.66; optionable): Medical instruments (contact lenses, etc.). Forecast to announce a split on 10-20-04 before the market opens in conjunction with earnings.
BACKGROUD: Last announced a 2 for 1 split on 4-30-91 at a stock price of $80. Prior to that announced a 2 for 1 split on 10-5-83. The annual shareholder meeting was on 4-27-04 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bol.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. BOL is forming a nice handle over the 18 day EMA (64.27), tapping at that level on the intraday low and rebounding for a gain. Volume started to move higher; still below average but getting there. Putting the finishing touches on its 20 week base sporting outstanding 8 to 1 accumulation and money flow surging ahead of price. Ready to make the breakout.
Volume: 261.6K Avg Volume: 372.136K
BUY POINT: $66.42 Volume=578K Target=$72 Stop=$64.44
POSITION: BOL AM - Jan. $65c (56 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/bol.html
Play Date: 08/18/2004
KMRT (Kmart Holding--$76.62; +0.56; optionable): Discount variety stores. Researching new split date, but an excellent pattern still.
BACKGROUND: This is the new K-Mart. There are no prior splits, but it is at that $75 level that is the new 'in' level to announce splits.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/k/kmrt.html
After Hours: $76.50
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Requiring patience as it works laterally over the 18 day EMA (74.75) in a very tight range and on low volume. May be frustrating waiting, but this is the part of the pattern where the weak holders get frustrated and sell out. Once they are gone, supply outstrips demand and then the stock makes the breakout. Money flow remains strong as the stock readies for the next breakout move.
Volume: 1.259M Avg Volume: 2.657M
BUY POINT: $79.42 Volume=3.6M Target=$88.88 Stop=$77.85
POSITION: KTQ LP - Dec. $80c (53 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/kmrt.html
POST SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 08/28/2004
ACV (Alberto-Culver--$48.29; +0.36; optionable): Consumer personal products (shampoo, etc.)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/acv.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Still working laterally over the 10 day EMA (47.78) in a narrow range, forming the handle to its 7 week base. A rather abrupt pattern formed in the July and August selling, but ACV has bounced right back up and started this handle. A solid mover the past year, ACV is using this base to take a breather and set up for the next rally higher. Excellent 3 to 0 accumulation in the pattern shows buyers even in the dip toward the 200 day SMA (44.65); they used that to move into the stock and send it higher. Solid money flow in addition to the accumulation.
Volume: 176.2K Avg Volume: 310.727K
BUY POINT: $48.41 Volume=491K Target=$52.38 Stop=$47.32
POSITION: ACV LI - Dec. $45c (85 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/acv.html
Play Date: 08/30/2004
CWTR (Coldwater Creek--$20.12; +0.29; no options): Catalog & mail order
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cwtr.html
After Hours: $20.12
STATUS: Breakout test. Trading at the buy point on the close on lower though still above average volume. Solid volume the past four sessions as it made the breakout and then came back for the test of the move. Tapped the 10 day EMA (19.48) on the low and rebounded for a gain. Good recovery and ready to continue the move higher. The pattern enjoys strong money flow and a relative strength breakout as well. Accumulation in the base is positive at 3 to 2, showing buyers moving into the stock during the base.
Volume: 394.192K Avg Volume: 323K
BUY POINT: $20.15 Volume=400K Target=$24 Stop=$19.21
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cwtr.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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