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Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good moves Thursday: BMET; CLE; CWTR; DKS; EBAY; PETD; QCOM; TRA
In each report we prepare full write-ups for those plays that look ready to move. Those that have made the move or are still setting up are discussed in the continuing play table. The purpose is to focus on those stocks that are set to make us money.
NEW PLAYS:
New Pre-Split Plays:
Play Date: 09/02/2004
ANSS (Ansys--$46.07; +0.37; optionable): Technical software. Splits 2:1 on 10-8-04.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/anss.html
STATUS: 50 day EMA test. Volume has jumped the past three sessions as ANSS starts to move higher off a 50 day EMA test (44.60). It has spent three weeks moving at that level on low volume, grouping for this move higher. Money flow is surging ahead of the price as it made this lateral move. Excellent 5 to 0 accumulation shows solid buying over the past 10 weeks. Building up some momentum here and looking to move in on another break higher on volume.
Volume: 98.309K Avg Volume: 79.954K
BUY POINT: $46.35 Volume=120K Target=$52 Stop=$45.38
POSITION: QUS AI - Jan. $45c (61 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/anss.html
New Post-Split Plays:
Play Date: 09/02/2004
YHOO (Yahoo!--$29.83; +0.82; optionable): Internet portal
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/y/yhoo.html
After Hours: $29.58
STATUS: Cup. YHOO is in the process of starting the right side of a 9 week cup base that used the 200 day SMA (26.03) as its support back in early August. Thursday YHOO jumped higher, clearing the recent resistance of the August high as well as the 50 day EMA (29.11). Accumulation is positive at 2 to 1; not a great surge of buying, but it is early in the base and accumulation with strengthen as it moves. Looking for more volume as it clears 30 and moves through the buy point.
Volume: 17.273M Avg Volume: 20.316M
BUY POINT: $30.36 Volume=2.5M Target=$35 Stop=$29.87
POSITION: YHQ AZ - Jan. $30c (53 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/yhoo.html
Play Date: 09/02/2004
BLUD (Immucor--$21.43; +0.38; optionable): Diagnostic substances
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/blud.html
After Hours: $21.38
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. A sweet little 9 week base has formed around the 50 day EMA (19.98), the past two weeks moving laterally in a rather narrow range over the 18 day EMA (20.45). This base formed right after the split in mid-July, and while the market went through its gyrations, BLUD went about its business in forming this base. It has edged up the past two sessions, rising to average Thursday as it knocks on the door. It ahs set up well, now it needs to make the breakout move on volume. This will take it to an all-time high where there is no overhead resistance.
Volume: 291.988K Avg Volume: 344.318K
BUY POINT: $21.75 Volume=500K Target=$25.25 Stop=$20.98
POSITION: QVM LD - Dec. $20c (66 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/blud.html
New Leadership Plays:
Play Date: 09/02/2004
RL (Ralph Lauren--$38.00; +1.21; optionable): Apparel
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/rl.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. This could very well develop into a nice little pre-announcement play, but that aside, it is looking solid. Nice breakout Thursday on strong trade with the solid news from the retail sector. Solid 6 to 3 accumulation in the 17 week base shows buyers and money moving into the stock during the consolidation, and now with this breakout it is being put to use. Money flow is moving higher with price and relative strength is making a breakout, a good corroboration of the move. Looking to enter on a continued upside volume move.
Volume: 1.158M Avg Volume: 484.863K
BUY POINT: $38.25 Volume=727K Target=$42.45 Stop=$37.12
POSITION: RL AG - Jan. $35c (82 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/rl.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
Current Pre-Announcement Plays: In each report we look at the candidates that are in the best patterns ahead of their potential announcements. This focus on leaders in good patterns allows us to make good money even if companies do not announce the split. The key with splits is the pattern. Still gat positive moves on the announcement, but stocks in this market need to have a good pattern of accumulation to really benefit from a split announcement.
AET: Moving laterally over the 10 day EMA testing the break higher. Volume started up Tuesday. May be ready to continue.
BMET: Forecast 9-18-04.
BOL: Forecast 10-20-04
CME: Forecast 10-20-04
EBAY: Forecast 10-20-04.
FAST: No split announced 8-24-04. Researching the next date. Starting the next move up.
FDX: Forecast 9-22-04
KMRT: Started the breakout. Still researching the next split date.
MBT: Announced earnings Wednesday but no split. No matter. Surged on the news and took a breather Thursday.
MIK: Researching next possible date.
NCEN: Forecast to announce a split on 10-5-04
PENN: Researching to pinpoint a date.
SCSC: Forecast 10-12-04.
UTX: Forecast 10-20-04.
VIP: Researching an exact date, but performing well in the interim.
Full Write-ups: We do not cover all candidates in full in each report, but focus on those ready to make a move or are right at their forecast announcement date. This way we are focused on those stocks ready to make moves.
Continuing Pre-Announcement Plays:
Play Date: 08/24/2004
CME (Chicago Merchantile Exchange--$137.70; +5.40; optionable): Commodities, securities, currency, etc. trading. Forecast to announce a split on 10-20-04 in conjunction with earnings. The company has not confirmed this date.
BACKGROUND: It does not appear that CME has ever split its stock. The annual shareholder meeting was on 4-21-04 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cme.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. After an elongated handle to its 9 week base, CME looks ready to move toward a breakout attempt. It ahs spent the past 3 weeks moving laterally above the 50 day EMA (131.09) on low, below average volume. Volume was up Thursday on rising though still below average volume. Money flow is surging higher ahead of price even as it moves laterally. Accumulation has improved to 4 to 1, showing even more buyers moving in. Looks ready to follow that money flow higher.
Volume: 431.6K Avg Volume: 618.454K
BUY POINT: $138.88 Volume=928K Target=$154 Stop=$136.38
POSITION: CME LH - Dec. $140c (46 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cme.html
Play Date: 08/28/2004
SCSC (Scansource--$61.56; +1.43; optionable): Wholesale computers. Tentatively forecast to announce a split 10-12-04 after the market closes in conjunction with earnings, but still researching.
BACKGROUND: Last split its stock 2:1 in January 2003 at a price of $60.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/scsc.html
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. SCSC is moving in a short 8 week pattern sporting strong 4 to 0 accumulation. That tells us that buyers and money is moving into the stock even as it bases. This pattern follows a 5.5 month cup base that broke out in late June. Money flow remains strong. Setting up for a breakout, but we need to see how it handles the INTC news Friday and see if the pattern can hold. Want to see it hold the 18 day EMA (59.50) on any test.
Volume: 97.004K Avg Volume: 152.363K
BUY POINT: $61.88 Volume=236K Target=$69 Stop=$59.22
POSITION: UHI LL - Dec. $60c (61 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/scsc.html
POST SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 08/28/2004
ACV (Alberto-Culver--$48.79; +0.14; optionable): Consumer personal products (shampoo, etc.)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/acv.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Volume is just not coming into the stock as it probes the breakout point in its 7 week base. Accumulation remains excellent at 3 to 0 and money flow continues to move higher ahead of price. Everything is in place. It has to show us the move, however, and that will mean more upside volume.
Volume: 116.7K Avg Volume: 312.272K
BUY POINT: New: $48.89 (orig. $48.41) Volume=491K Target=$52.38 Stop=$47.32
POSITION: ACV LI - Dec. $45c (85 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/acv.html
Play Date: 08/31/2004
BCR (C.R. Bard--$56.59; +0.39; optionable): Medical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bcr.html
STATUS: Cup. BCR is rising to the breakout, but volume is not rising with it either. Still a very nice 12 week base with money flow rising higher. Accumulation is still positive at 2 to 0. A market leader that has quietly formed this base under a lot of radar screens. Indeed, it is ready to make a breakout to an all-time high.
Volume: 277.8K Avg Volume: 644.09K
BUY POINT: $56.55 Volume=800K Target=$62 Stop=$55.89
POSITION: BCR AK - Jan. $55c (63 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/bcr.html
Play Date: 08/31/2004
SLXP (Salix Pharmaceuticals--$23.50; +0.74; optionable): Drug related products
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/slxp.html
After Hours: $23.25
STATUS: Breakout test. Still a very nice pattern continues to shape up. SLXP made the breakout two weeks back from an 11 week double bottom with handle base. It rallied to 24 on the high and then faded back to test the 18 day EMA (22.30). Volume has moved higher the past three sessions as the stock narrows its range; it looks to be crouching for a continuation of the breakout move. Just want to see that volume move even higher as it moves through the buy point.
Volume: 303.191K Avg Volume: 397.5K
BUY POINT: $23.78 Volume=475K Target=$28 Stop=$22.38
POSITION: PTO AY - Jan. $23.38c (56 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/slxp.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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