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us stock market, stock watch
Begin part 2 of 2
Support and Resistance
NASDAQ: Closed at 1844.48
Resistance:
The 50 day EMA at 1870
May 2004 lows (1876 closing, 1865 intraday) may prove to be some resistance.
The 50 day SMA 1878
The March 2004 lows (1897 - 1989)
The 2004 down trendline at 1922
The 200 day SMA at 1969
Support:
The October 2002/March 2003 up trendline at 1842
The 18 day EMA at 1842
July 2003 highs at 1755
Late July 2003 top at 1735.
June 2003 intraday highs at 1686 to closing range at 1644 to 1677 (mid-July low here as well).
S&P 500: Closed at 1113.63
Resistance:
The March/April down trendline at 1118
1125 was key price support.
1142-1146 are the June highs.
The April and January highs (1150 to 1155).
1159 (February highs) and 1160 to 1175 the highs in that double top that spanned late 2001, early 2002.
Support:
The 200 day SMA at 1112
The 50 day EMA at 1101.
1096 to 1100 represent price support.
The 18 day EMA at 1100
May low at 1084 (closing) to 1076 (intraday).
1080 (May and July lows).
1062 - 1058 from November 2003
Dow: Closed at 10260.20
Resistance:
Late April, June peaks at 10,478 to 10,512
10,570 is the early April high
Price consolidation at 10,600 level
10,747 is the February high
Support:
The 200 day SMA at 10,264
The 50 day EMA at 10,130
The 18 day EMA at 10,131
The February/April down trendline at 10,074
9783 to 9793, the August lows.
9625 - 9660 from September 2003.
9500 from various price points in late summer to fall 2003.
Economic Calendar
These are consensus expectations. Our expectations will vary and are discussed in the 'Economy' section.
September 8
Consumer Credit, July (3:00): $7.5B expected and $6.6B prior
September 9
Export Prices ex-ag., August (8:30): 0.6% prior
Import Prices ex-oil, August (8:30): 0.1% prior
Initial Jobless Claims, 09/04 (8:30): 362K prior
Wholesale Inventories, July (10:00): 0.6% expected and 1.1% prior
September 10
Trade Balance, July (8:30): -$51.6B expected and -$55.8B prior
PPI, August (8:30): 0.2% expected and 0.1% prior
Core PPI, August (8:30): 0.1% expected and 0.1% prior
THE PLAYS
Good moves Friday: AVN; COO; DO; ISRG; MDCC; RL; TRA; KMRT
Thursday night play results:
ANSS: Gave back some ground on low volume, but holding above the 10 day EMA.
RL: Continued the breakout.
UTHR: Took a very low volume breather. Still looks solid.
Downside:
Play Date: 09/04/2004
ADI (Analog Devices--$34.17; -1.61; optionable): Semiconductors
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/adi.html
STATUS: Put. ADI continues a downtrend that began in June, bouncing down the 10 day EMA (25.15). It rebounded off the August low below 32 and rallied to the 18 day EMA (35.68). After a trend below the 10 day EMA, stocks will rebound for some air at the 18 day and then resume the downtrend. Friday ADI it was doing that on rising volume. Money flow is diving lower and the stock has been under serious distribution. Looks ready to continue the downtrend. Watching for a break below 34 on continued strong volume to enter and take it back to that August low and a 52%ish gain.
Volume: 4.573M Avg Volume: 4.506M
BUY POINT: $33.98 Volume=4.8M Target=$31.95 Stop=$34.22
POSITION: ADI VG - Oct. $35p (-60 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/adi.html
Play Date: 09/04/2004
POWI (Power Integrations--$19.08; -1.46; optionable): Semiconductor integrated circuit
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/powi.html
After Hours: $19.07
STATUS: Put. In a steady downtrend since last October. POWI has worked down the 10 and 18 day EMA all during the downtrend. It has come up for air at the 50 day EMA (20.92) as the market rallied the past month. It has been unable to break through that key level during the rally, and Friday it broke lower back below the 10 and 18 day EMA (19.91, 19.84) on rising, above average volume. Money flow is diving before it and stochastics and MACD are crossing over and moving down. Ready to fall toward August low and give us a 50%ish gain.
Volume: 548.725K Avg Volume: 459.791K
BUY POINT: $18.97 Volume=500K Target=$17.45 Stop=$19.21
POSITION: QPW VD - Oct. $20p (-68 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/powi.html
Play Date: 09/04/2004
PXLW (Pixelworks--$9.65; -1.10; optionable): Semiconductor integrated circuits
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pxlw.html
After Hours: $9.62
STATUS: Put. PXLW peaked in April and slipped into the current downtrend, sinking below the 10 and 18 day EMA (10.19, 10.04). It rallied with the market in August, rising back to the 50 day EMA (11.04). It has spent the past three weeks bumping heads at that level, but unable to break through. Friday volume surged as PXLW broke lower through the 10 and 18 day MA as the INTC news started the chip selling once again. Looking to enter on a resumption of the selling this week for a 65%ish gain.
Volume: 2.194M Avg Volume: 1.279M
BUY POINT: $9.53 Volume=1.4M Target=$8 Stop=$9.78
POSITION: PUO VB - Oct. $10p (-57 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/pxlw.html
Upside:
Play Date: 09/04/2004
CTSH (Cognizant Technology--$27.49; -0.31; optionable): Business software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/ctsh.html
After Hours: $27.60
STATUS: Cup. Working on a 30 week cup base sporting strong 8 to 4 accumulation. That accumulation shows solid buying during the base, setting the foundation for a breakout. Volume has been very low this summer as it worked higher in the base. It needs to show very good volume on the breakout move, something it should do with the start of the 'new year' after Labor Day.
Volume: 673.362K Avg Volume: 1.16M
BUY POINT: $28.12 Volume=1.6M Target=$38.25 Stop=$27.55
POSITION: UPU AY - Jan. $27.50c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/ctsh.html
Play Date: 09/04/2004
LIFC (Lifecell--$9.30; +0.45; optionable): Biotechnology
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/lifc.html
STATUS: Double bottom. Volume surged Friday as LIFC jumped over the 50 day EMA (8.96). This starts the breakout move from a 10 week double bottom pattern we call a 'flying W' where the right leg does not undercut the left. There is a reason it did not; the 200 day SMA (8.11) is working as support for the base. Accumulation is already positive as it comes off the bottom of the pattern, already in good shape as it runs higher toward the recent highs at 11.50. Money flow is surging ahead of price, and LIFC is ready to follow it.
Volume: 797.457K Avg Volume: 326.14K
BUY POINT: $9.47 Volume=450K Target=$11.49 Stop=$9.32
POSITION: QKL LU - Dec. $7.50c (88 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/lifc.html
Play Date: 09/04/2004
LLL (L-3 Communications--$63.63; -0.21; optionable): Military telecom
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/lll.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. LLL is starting to form a handle to its 9 week base. After a good run from late 2003 it needed a rest. It peaked in June and started to work in the current pattern, finding support above the 200 day SMA (57.30). It has just started to work on the handle, moving laterally the past two sessions on very low, below average volume. Accumulation in the base is a solid 3 to 1, showing buyers moving in quietly as it consolidates the prior gains. This handle may take a few more sessions to fully form, but it looks to be a solid pattern that is putting on the finishing touches.
Volume: 457.1K Avg Volume: 790.409K
BUY POINT: $64.41 Volume=1.2M Target=$72.45 Stop=$62.97
POSITION: LLL AM - Jan. $65c (44 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/lll.html
CONTINUING PLAY LIST
* * SPREADSHEET DOWNLOAD * * *
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http://investmenthouse.com/ihalerts/table.php
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http://www.investmenthouse.com/rescue/rescue.php3
LEGEND FOR CONTINUING PLAY TABLE
DATE: date play first appeared on report.
PLAY: Denotes the type of pattern or play.
Upside play types: Asc Tri =Ascending triangle; BO=Breakout; Cup=Cup base; Cup hdl=Cup w/handle; DB hdl=Double bottom w/handle; Dbl btm=Double bottom; Flat=Flat base; FlyPlat=Flying Plateau; Pennant=Pennant; Rv H&S=Reverse head & shoulders; Saucer=Saucer base; Test 18=Testing 18 day MVA; Test 50=Testing 50 day MVA; Test BO=Testing the breakout (could be 10 day MVA test, etc.)
Downside play types: CCall=Covered Call; Dsc Tri=Descending triangle; Dbl Top=Double top; H&S=Head & shoulders; Put (generic downside);
PIVOT=Buy point
Tgt=Target stock price for the play. Applies to stock and options.
Vol=Volume for the most recent session.
TgtV=Target volume to enter the play.
Stop=Stop advisory point. This is advisory and we may or may not exit a play if it hits this level depending upon market conditions.
PLAY STATUS: Buy not hit (stock has not hit buy point); Buy not issued (stock has hit buy point but did not enter due to weak volume, poor intraday action, poor market action); Current (ongoing play already entered); Entered today (entered the play that session); Exited (closed the position); Target hit (play hit initial target; will note if took all or partial gain or let run further); Trailing stop (exited using a trailing stop loss).
Upside Plays
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
AEOS 07/27 Flat 36.06 -0.4 31.18 36.32 1.8M 2.3M 35.89
Current. Pullback on much lower, below average volume. Still in uptrend.
AGYS 08/14 Test BO 15.58 -0.08 15.16 17.84 156K 276K 15.24
Current. Volatile session tapping 15.16 at the intraday low and rallied back showing a doji on much lower, below average volume. Making a lateral move.
ANSS 09/02 PreSplt 45.43 -0.64 46.35 52 36K 120K 45.38
Buy Not Issued. Ease back tapping 44.32 at the intraday low and rallied back holding just above the 10 day MVA on very low volume. Still in good shape.
APCS 08/19 Flat 7.98 -0.13 8.32 9.98 351K 2.2M 7.95
Buy Not Issued. Pullback on very low volume holding the 18 day MVA. Looking for a rebound from here.
AVN 08/28 Test BO 2.94 +0.1 2.51 3.64 1M 1M 2.78
Current. Another great move up the 10 day MVA on lower, but still strong volume making a 52 week high.
BCR 08/31 Cup 56.81 +0.22 56.55 62 276K 800K 55.89
Buy Not Issued. Did not give any more volume as it moved higher. Really needs to test back to 56ish or 55.50 to set up a better move.
BEAV 08/10 Test BO 11 -0.14 10.29 12.38 127K 600K 10.78
Current. Pullback tapping 10.78 at the intraday low and rallied back holding at some support on very low volume. Still in good shape.
BGC 08/07 Cup hdl 10.83 +0.08 10.29 12.38 236K 581K 10.68
Current. Volatile session tapping 10.46 at the intraday low and rallied back showing a doji on lower, below average volume. Continue with uptrend.
BOL 08/26 DB hdl 66.38 -1.49 67.85 73.48 384K 578K 65.78
Current. Ease back on lower, but average volume. Testing the breakout. May test back to 66 (10 day MVA)
BYD 08/31 Dbl btm 27.05 -0.25 27.42 31.55 203K 500K 26.38
Buy Not Issued. Has faltered after solid volume Tuesday. Needs to
test 26.75 to 26.50 over next several sessions to form
a handle, then breakout. Will watch it & put a new
buy point when it shows this action.
CLE 09/01 Test BO 25.39 -0.27 25.22 28.48 326K 725K 24.72
Current. Pullback on very low, below average volume. Still in uptrend.
CLF 08/16 Cup hdl 68.29 +0.17 66.14 74 129K 454K 66.32
Current. Moving up the 10 day MVA on lower, below average volume. Broke through some resistance at 68.
CME 08/24 DB hdl 137 -0.7 138.88 154 258K 928K 136.38
Buy Not Hit. Pullback on lower, below average volume. Still in the pattern.
COO 08/23 Test 50 65.85 +1.79 60.88 66.56 763K 650K 64.97
Current. Explosive move on strong volume.
CSAR 08/26 Test BO 16.35 -0.35 16.55 19.38 135K 175K 16.45
Current. Gapped down tapping 16.18 intraday on lower, but average volume. Testing the breakout. May test back to 16 (10 day MVA)
CSAR 08/16 Test BO 16.35 -0.35 15.21 17.72 135K 175K 16.45
Current.
CWTR 08/30 Test BO 20.18 -0.26 20.39 24.22 81K 400K 19.72
Current. Pullback on very low volume testing support at 20 intraday. Still in good shape.
DKS 09/01 Rv H&S 33.21 -0.02 33.44 38.24 469K 1.1M 32.31
Current. Making a lateral move on lower, below average volume.
DO 08/31 Cup hdl 27.2 +0.77 25.48 29 1.1M 1.3M 26.72
Current. Explosive move up the 10 ay MVA on strong volume.
DUSA 08/25 DB hdl 11.96 -0.04 11.15 13.25 127K 310K 11.62
Current. Volatile session tapping 11.48 intraday and rallied back showing a doji on very low, below average volume. Making lateral move.
EBAY 08/31 DB hdl 89.38 -0.17 88.05 99.94 7.8M 14M 87.44
Current. Pullback showing a odji on lower, below average volume. Still in uptrend.
ECIL 08/28 Cup hdl 7 -0.22 7.12 8.55 301K 450K 7.89
Buy Not Issued. Tapped 7.20 at the high, but gave it back showing a tight doji on stronger, but average volume. Holding at support. Doji may indicate a change in pattern.
ESL 07/24 Cup hdl 28.53 -4.15 30.88 35.22 813K 150K 31.48
Exited. Gapped down below the 50 day MVA and continued to tank on very strong volume surge.
FAST 08/21 Flat 63.1 -0.75 63.12 71 495K 937K 62.24
Current. Pullback on lower, below average volume. Still in uptrend.
GENZ 08/24 Cup hdl 54.01 -1.05 53.43 60 1.1M 3.2M 53.55
Current. Ease back on lower, below average volume. Still in good shape.
GIVN 09/01 Flat 38.72 -0.62 37.25 42.45 158K 431K 38.25
Current. Gapped up at the open, but gave it back on lower, below average volume. still in uptrend.
HANS 09/01 Cup hdl 27.1 -0.27 26.12 30 221K 550K 26.45
Current. Pullback tapping 26.20 at the low and rallied back on much lower, below average volume. Making a lateral move.
INSP 08/18 Cup 39.26 -0.51 38.38 43.55 1.1M 1.5M 38.55
Current. Tapped 40.88 at the high, but gave it back showing a doji on rising, but average volume. Still in good shape.
ISRG 08/09 Test BO 26.95 +0.61 22.71 26.05 537K 400K 26.59
Current. Tapped 25.86 at the low and rallied back for a great move up the 10 day MVA on lower, but slightly above average volume.
JUPM 08/14 Asc Tri 14.39 0 14.15 17.22 170K 513K 15.47
Trailing Stop. Making a lateral move just above the 18 day MVA on low volume.
KMRT 08/18 Dbl btm 82.08 +2.69 80.22 92 3.9M 3.6M 80.89
Current. Nice move up the 10 day MVA on stronger above average volume making a new high.
LSTR 08/30 DB hdl 53.35 0 53.76 59.42 160K 334K 52.22
Buy Not Issued. New buy point. It looks ready but needs a good volume push.
MBT 08/07 Cup 140.75 +2.9 122.65 135 808K 500K 138
Current. Nice move up the 10 day MVA on strong volume. Came off the day's high of 145. Making a 52 week high.
MCIP 08/12 Test 50 17.25 +0.07 17.11 20 698K 5.1M 17.08
Current. Making a lateral move on very low volume.
MDCC 08/31 Test 18 23.98 +0.56 23.93 26.95 193K 300K 23.22
Entered today. Nice move up the 10 day MVA on rising, but slightly below average volume.
MVSN 09/01 DB hdl 22.35 -0.57 24.07 27.22 409K 677K 23.45
Buy Not Hit. Continue to move down below the 50 day MVA on average volume. The stock has not made the move we were looking for so will drop.
NUS 08/11 Test BO 26.13 -0.17 26.39 30.42 178K 475K 25.88
Buy Not Issued. New buy point. Holding up well and setting up for
the next break higher.
OCAS 08/31 Asc Tri 20.5 +0.02 20.12 23.12 170K 358K 20.14
Current. Gapped up at the open, but gave most of it back on very low volume. Making a lateral move.
PHRM 08/25 Dbl btm 49.43 -0.21 49.85 57.75 157K 773K 48.98
Current. Pullback on very low volume. Still in uptrend.
PMTI 08/23 Dbl btm 18.82 -0.15 18.44 21.95 118K 222K 18.24
Current. Volatile session tapping 18.10 at the low and rallied back on lower, below average volume. Still in good shape.
PPDI 07/24 Test BO 34.57 -0.01 34.75 40.75 209K 650K 34.05
Buy Not Issued. New buy point. It needs some more volume as it moved up off the 18 day MA.
QCOM 08/31 FlyPlat 38.49 -0.33 38.82 45 9.1M 11M 37.59
Current.
QCOM 08/14 Flat 38.49 -0.33 35.42 40.48 9.1M 11M 37.15
Current. Pullback tapping 38.04 at the low and rallied back showing a doji on low volume. Holding at some support. Still moving up the 10 day MVA.
RIMM 08/21 Dbl btm 62.36 -0.85 63.52 72 4.9M 10M 61.04
Current. Pullback testing the 10 day MVA intraday and rallied back holding at the support. Still in the pattern.
RL 09/02 DB hdl 38.45 +0.45 38.47 42.78 609K 727K 37.68
Entered today. Another great move up the 10 day MVA on lower, but still strong volume.
ROK 08/03 Asc Tri 39.1 -0.59 38.08 43.95 593K 1.3M 38.75
Current. Ease back tapping 38.90 at the low and rallied back on rising, but below average volume. Holding at support. May test back to the 10 day MVA.
SAPE 08/09 Test BO 7.7 -0.14 7.04 8.54 949K 1.5M 7.48
Current. Pullback on lower, below average volume. Managing to hold the gain.
SCSC 08/28 Test BO 60.99 -0.57 61.88 69 69K 236K 59.22
Buy Not Hit. Tapped 59.66 at the intraday low and rallied back showing a tight doji on low volume. Still in the pattern.
SHFL 09/01 Cup 32.22 -1.43 34.57 39.55 1.9M 934K 33.95
Buy Not Hit. Tanked holding the 50 day MVA on very strong volume surge. The stock has not performed so will drop.
SKX 09/02 Asc Tri 13.97 +0.01 14.28 17 110K 270K 13.89
Buy Not Hit. Showing a doji at some resistance on lower, below average volume
SNDA 07/31 Cup hdl 21.7 +0.2 19.51 23.32 330K 500K 21.87
Current. Bounced off the 18 day MVA and rallied holding the 10 day MVA on low volume. Making a lateral move.
STSI 08/04 Cup hdl 4.99 -0.19 4.98 6 254K 400K 4.99
Current. Ease back testing the 18 day MVA intraday and rallied back holding at support. Needs to hold here.
SYMC 08/10 DB hdl 48.7 -0.33 47.83 53.88 3.6M 7.6M 47.97
Current. Tapping 49.89 at the intraday high, but gave it back showing a doji on lower, below average volume. Beginning to make a lateral move.
TDS 08/02 FlyPlat 79.29 -0.41 77.46 82.38 126K 265K 78.55
Current. Pullback on rising, but below average volume. Testing the breakout. May test back to the 10 day MVA.
TRA 08/09 Cup hdl 8.39 +0.39 7.04 8.45 890K 450K 8.24
Current. Explosive move on lower, but very strong volume.
TUNE 08/17 Asc Tri 4.98 -0.13 4.58 5.48 131K 758K 4.78
Current. Ease back tapping 4.88 at the low and rallied back holding the 10 day MVA on very low volume. Testing the breakout.
URBN 08/24 DB hdl 31.6 +0.11 31.36 36 879K 2.2M 30.94
Current. Gapped up at the open showing a tight doji on very low volume. Continue to move up the 10 day MVA.
UTHR 09/02 Test 18 30.77 -0.02 31.12 35.35 154K 650K 30.42
Buy Not Hit. Making a lateral move on very low volume.
WBSN 08/14 Cup hdl 38.03 -1.08 39.58 43.45 599K 735K 38.46
Current. Decided to let it run another session as it held support
at 38. Volume moved up to average, so it needs to hold
here.
WITS 08/21 Flat 13.31 -0.19 14.12 16.95 104K 459K 13.88
Buy Not Issued. Pullback showing a tight doji on the 10 day MVA on lower, below average volume. Stock has not performed so will drop.
ZBRA 08/19 Dbl btm 58.1 -0.81 56.43 60 203K 425K 57.05
Current. Pullback on low volume. Testing the breakout. May test back to 57.15.
Downside Plays
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
ANN 08/30 Put 24.68 +0.22 24.15 22.57 848K 1.2M 24.22
Current. Stalled at the 18 day MA on low volume after trading
above that level intraday. Still quite weak, but needs to fade here.
ATRX 08/28 Put 29.26 -0.13 29.25 27.35 158K 700K 29.33
Current. Beginning to make a lateral move under the 10 day MVA on rising, but below average volume.
DV 08/30 Put 20.67 +0.4 19.45 18 430K 400K 19.85
Exited. Rallied above the 18 day MVA on rising, but below average volume.
ERES 08/21 Put 19.54 -0.32 19.38 17.15 826K 1.5M 19.67
Buy Not Issued. Continue to move down the 10 ay MVA on lower, below average volume.
JBLU 08/28 Put 23.32 -0.36 23.94 21.75 947K 2M 23.68
Current. Moving down the 10 day MVA on lower, below average volume.
PTEK 08/26 Put 8.9 +0.09 8.58 7.28 299K 725K 8.98
Current. Making a lateral move on the 10 day MVA on low volume.
RSAS 08/24 Put 15.94 +0.46 15.88 13.71 1.7M 935K 15.05
Exited. Volatile session. Gapped up at the open showing a doji on stronger above average volume.
TEVA 08/21 Put 26.32 +0.3 27.34 25.35 4.8M 4.5M 26.88
Gapped up at the open, but then gave some of it back on lower, below average volume.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your IH Alerts Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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