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us stock market, stock split
Begin art 2 of 3
Support and Resistance
NASDAQ: Closed at 1844.48
Resistance:
The 50 day EMA at 1870
May 2004 lows (1876 closing, 1865 intraday) may prove to be some resistance.
The 50 day SMA 1878
The March 2004 lows (1897 - 1989)
The 2004 down trendline at 1922
The 200 day SMA at 1969
Support:
The October 2002/March 2003 up trendline at 1842
The 18 day EMA at 1842
July 2003 highs at 1755
Late July 2003 top at 1735.
June 2003 intraday highs at 1686 to closing range at 1644 to 1677 (mid-July low here as well).
S&P 500: Closed at 1113.63
Resistance:
The March/April down trendline at 1118
1125 was key price support.
1142-1146 are the June highs.
The April and January highs (1150 to 1155).
1159 (February highs) and 1160 to 1175 the highs in that double top that spanned late 2001, early 2002.
Support:
The 200 day SMA at 1112
The 50 day EMA at 1101.
1096 to 1100 represent price support.
The 18 day EMA at 1100
May low at 1084 (closing) to 1076 (intraday).
1080 (May and July lows).
1062 - 1058 from November 2003
Dow: Closed at 10260.20
Resistance:
Late April, June peaks at 10,478 to 10,512
10,570 is the early April high
Price consolidation at 10,600 level
10,747 is the February high
Support:
The 200 day SMA at 10,264
The 50 day EMA at 10,130
The 18 day EMA at 10,131
The February/April down trendline at 10,074
9783 to 9793, the August lows.
9625 - 9660 from September 2003.
9500 from various price points in late summer to fall 2003.
Economic Calendar
These are consensus expectations. Our expectations will vary and are discussed in the 'Economy' section.
September 8
Consumer Credit, July (3:00): $7.5B expected and $6.6B prior
September 9
Export Prices ex-ag., August (8:30): 0.6% prior
Import Prices ex-oil, August (8:30): 0.1% prior
Initial Jobless Claims, 09/04 (8:30): 362K prior
Wholesale Inventories, July (10:00): 0.6% expected and 1.1% prior
September 10
Trade Balance, July (8:30): -$51.6B expected and -$55.8B prior
PPI, August (8:30): 0.2% expected and 0.1% prior
Core PPI, August (8:30): 0.1% expected and 0.1% prior
THE PLAYS
Good moves Friday: MBT; NCEN; MIK; KMRT; RL; VIP
In each report we prepare full write-ups for those plays that look ready to move. Those that have made the move or are still setting up are discussed in the continuing play table. The purpose is to focus on those stocks that are set to make us money.
NEW PLAYS:
New Post-Split Plays:
Play Date: 09/04/2004
CTSH (Cognizant Technology--$27.49; -0.31; optionable): Business software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/ctsh.html
After Hours: $27.60
STATUS: Cup. Working on a 30 week cup base sporting strong 8 to 4 accumulation. That accumulation shows solid buying during the base, setting the foundation for a breakout. Volume has been very low this summer as it worked higher in the base. It needs to show very good volume on the breakout move, something it should do with the start of the 'new year' after Labor Day.
Volume: 673.362K Avg Volume: 1.16M
BUY POINT: $28.12 Volume=1.6M Target=$38.25 Stop=$27.55
POSITION: UPU AY - Jan. $27.50c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ctsh.html
New buy point, continuing play:
Play Date: 08/07/2004
TZOO (Travelzoo--$44.02; -0.54; no options): Travel specials on the internet
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tzoo.html
After Hours: $43.55
STATUS: Breakout test. After an excellent surge for us that is still putting money in the bank, TZOO is now working laterally in a 3 week consolidation as the 10 day EMA (42.11) rises to meet the stock. Volume is backing down as it makes the move, indicating no significant selling. It may take another week or so to fully consolidate the move as back in June, but this stock has a lot of pop. Friday it showed a doji over the 10 day, so we want to be ready on an upside move on volume.
Volume: 961.691K Avg Volume: 913.053K
BUY POINT: New: $46.28 (orig. positions: $28.27) Volume=1.7M Target=$60 Stop=$44.72
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/tzoo.html
New Downside Plays:
Play Date: 09/04/2004
ADI (Analog Devices--$34.17; -1.61; optionable): Semiconductors
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/adi.html
STATUS: Put. ADI continues a downtrend that began in June, bouncing down the 10 day EMA (25.15). It rebounded off the August low below 32 and rallied to the 18 day EMA (35.68). After a trend below the 10 day EMA, stocks will rebound for some air at the 18 day and then resume the downtrend. Friday ADI it was doing that on rising volume. Money flow is diving lower and the stock has been under serious distribution. Looks ready to continue the downtrend. Watching for a break below 34 on continued strong volume to enter and take it back to that August low and a 52%ish gain.
Volume: 4.573M Avg Volume: 4.506M
BUY POINT: $33.98 Volume=4.8M Target=$31.95 Stop=$34.22
POSITION: ADI VG - Oct. $35p (-60 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/adi.html
Play Date: 09/04/2004
PXLW (Pixelworks--$9.65; -1.10; optionable): Semiconductor integrated circuits
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pxlw.html
After Hours: $9.62
STATUS: Put. PXLW peaked in April and slipped into the current downtrend, sinking below the 10 and 18 day EMA (10.19, 10.04). It rallied with the market in August, rising back to the 50 day EMA (11.04). It has spent the past three weeks bumping heads at that level, but unable to break through. Friday volume surged as PXLW broke lower through the 10 and 18 day MA as the INTC news started the chip selling once again. Looking to enter on a resumption of the selling this week for a 65%ish gain.
Volume: 2.194M Avg Volume: 1.279M
BUY POINT: $9.53 Volume=1.4M Target=$8 Stop=$9.78
POSITION: PUO VB - Oct. $10p (-57 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/pxlw.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
Current Pre-Announcement Plays: In each report we look at the candidates that are in the best patterns ahead of their potential announcements. This focus on leaders in good patterns allows us to make good money even if companies do not announce the split. The key with splits is the pattern. Still gat positive moves on the announcement, but stocks in this market need to have a good pattern of accumulation to really benefit from a split announcement.
AET: Moving laterally over the 10 day EMA testing the break higher. Moving higher but needs to show more volume for a new position.
BMET: Forecast 9-18-04.
BOL: Forecast 10-20-04
CME: Forecast 10-20-04
EBAY: Forecast 10-20-04.
FAST: No split announced 8-24-04. Researching the next date. Trying to make next break higher.
FDX: Forecast 9-22-04
KMRT: Nice break higher. Researching next possible date, but enjoying the move.
MBT: Announced earnings Wednesday but no split. Surged higher and continued Friday.
MIK: Researching next possible date. Moving right on up.
NCEN: Forecast to announce a split on 10-5-04
PENN: Researching to pinpoint a date.
RL: Forecast 9-13-04 at a board meeting. Continued the breakout move.
SCSC: Forecast 10-12-04.
UTX: Forecast 10-20-04.
VIP: Nice move Friday. Now we look for a test to take more positions for the next run.
Full Write-ups: We do not cover all candidates in full in each report, but focus on those ready to make a move or are right at their forecast announcement date. This way we are focused on those stocks ready to make moves.
New Pre-Announcement Plays:
Play Date: 09/04/2004
CMI (Cummins--$71.00; +0.14; optionable): Manufacturing (truck engines, etc.). Forecast to announce a split on 10-12-04 in conjunction with a board meeting or on 10-26-04 in conjunction with earnings. The company has not confirmed these dates.
BACKGROUND: It does not appear that CMI has never split its stock. The annual shareholder meeting was on 4-6-04 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cmi.html
STATUS: Flying plateau. CMI may have never announced a split, but it is performing very well. It just broke higher Thursday from a 5 week flying plateau that followed the breakout from 14 week cup w/handle base. A flying plateau is a very strong pattern as a stock refuses to give back its gains on a breakout move, instead consolidating in a lateral move. Thursday volume jumped as CMI started the breakout move. Friday it took a breather, but it still looks solid. Solid 2 to 0 accumulation the plateau shows buyers moving in during the lateral move. $80 is our initial target, but we will be glad to let it run further.
Volume: 713.8K Avg Volume: 716.901K
BUY POINT: $71.44 Volume=1.1M Target=$80 Stop=$69.89
POSITION: CMI LN - Dec. $70c (59 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cmi.html
Play Date: 09/04/2004
HDI (Harley-Davidson--$62.32; +0.15; optionable): Costly motorcycles. Forecast to announce a split on 10-13-04 in conjunction with earnings.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for 1 split on 2-17-00 at a stock price of $66. Prior to that announced a 2 for 1 split in the following months: August 1997 ($53); July 1994 ($49); May 1992 ($59). The annual shareholder meeting was on 4-24-04 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hdi.html
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. Working through an 11 week pattern that has formed roughly at the 50 day EMA (60.03). Accumulation in the pattern is positive at 3 to 2, showing buyers moving into the stock. HDI broke out from a 16 month base in February, and has stepped up the 50 day EMA since. It is setting up to do the same here after this nice base.
Volume: 967.4K Avg Volume: 1.433M
BUY POINT: $62.74 Volume=2M Target=$69 Stop=$61.15
POSITION: HDI AL - Jan. $60c (71 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/hdi.html
Play Date: 09/04/2004
STN (Station Casinos--$46.67; +0.53; optionable): Resorts and casinos. Forecast to announce a split on 10-28-04 before the market opens in conjunction with earnings.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3 for 2 split in June 2000 at approximately $27. The annual shareholder meeting was on 5-21-03 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/stn.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. STN has formed a very nice weeklong handle to its 12 week base. A good breakout in January from another 12 week cup with handle base sent the stock from 32.50 to 50. Nice move and it could give us something similar here. We have set an initical target at 54, but if it is showing the right action, we will let it run further though we will look at taking some interim gain, particularly on our option positions. Friday the stock was up and moving well, but volume was not there. Looking for that volume to come in and really send it to the breakout.
Volume: 226.5K Avg Volume: 520.676K
BUY POINT: $46.89 Volume=781K Target=$54 Stop=$45.78
POSITION: STN AI - Jan. $45c (66 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/stn.html
Continuing Pre-Announcement Plays: Same plays look good still.
Play Date: 08/24/2004
CME (Chicago Merchantile Exchange--$137; -0.7; optionable): Commodities, securities, currency, etc. trading. Forecast to announce a split on 10-20-04 in conjunction with earnings. The company has not confirmed this date.
BACKGROUND: It does not appear that CME has ever split its stock. The annual shareholder meeting was on 4-21-04 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cme.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Nice move on better volume Thursday, and then took another breather Friday. CME still looks good in the handle of its 9 week base sporting strong 4 to 1 accumulation and money flow that continues to rise ahead of price. With basic materials, metals, gold, and oil rising, it is just itching to make the breakout. Just need to see the move.
Volume: 257.5K Avg Volume: 636.658K
BUY POINT: $138.88 Volume=928K Target=$154 Stop=$136.38
POSITION: CME LH - Dec. $140c (46 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cme.html
Play Date: 08/28/2004
SCSC (Scansource--$60.99; -0.57; optionable): Wholesale computers. Tentatively forecast to announce a split 10-12-04 after the market closes in conjunction with earnings, but still researching.
BACKGROUND: Last split its stock 2:1 in January 2003 at a price of $60.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/scsc.html
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. Continues to move laterally over the 18 day EMA (59.93) as SCSC forms the right shoulder to the 8 week base. Simply outstanding 4 to 0 accumulation in the pattern shows buyers moving into the stock during the base. Money flow remains strong as well. A nice base-on-base pattern as SCSC broke out from a 5.5 month cup base in late June. These combinations tend to really work out the sellers and leave nothing but buyers. Looks ready, but we need to see the move.
Volume: 68.555K Avg Volume: 154.634K
BUY POINT: $61.88 Volume=236K Target=$69 Stop=$59.22
POSITION: UHI LL - Dec. $60c (61 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/scsc.html
POST SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 09/02/2004
BLUD (Immucor--$21.85; +0.42; optionable): Diagnostic substances
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/blud.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Started to surge again Friday, but the volume was still not quite what we wanted, and after hitting 22.65 on the high, it faded back to close. Right at the breakout point and this action is very encouraging. Still in that sweet little 9 week base that formed around the 50 day EMA (20.05) and showing 4 to 2 accumulation. Looks ready to make the move to a new all-time high.
Volume: 308.231K Avg Volume: 289.569K
BUY POINT: $21.75 Volume=500K Target=$25.25 Stop=$20.98
POSITION: QVM LD - Dec. $20c (66 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/blud.html
Play Date: 08/28/2004
KRON (Kronos--$42.02; -0.95; optionable): Human resources, payroll, scheduling and time and labor solution software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/k/kron.html
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. KRON continues to hold over the 18 day EMA (41.72) as it works on the right shoulder to its 13 week base. A solid pattern for a leadership stock, and a breakout sends it to an all-time high. We don't shy away from that; there are not pissed off shareholders ready to sell the stock just to 'get out even.' Volume was solid on Wednesday, and we are looking for a return to heavy buying this week to break it out of this base. This is the kind of software businesses want: they want to hire fewer people and thus need to organize the workforce better. A natural fit for this economic climate.
Volume: 82.836K Avg Volume: 226.851K
BUY POINT: $43.32 Volume=362K Target=$49 Stop=$41.88
POSITION: KUE AI - Jan. $45c (45 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/kron.html
Play Date: 08/28/2004
TRMB (Trimble Navigation--$27.24; -0.14; optionable): Scientific & technical instruments (guidance systems for commercial and government projects and many other 21st century applications)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/trmb.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. TRMB is forming a nice low volume handle to its 8.5 month base. It has pretty much gone about its own business as the rest of the market sold off and rallied, forming the pattern above the 200 day SMA (24.50), the last portion holding over the 50 day EMA (26.39) as it forms the handle. Money flow continues to rally ahead of price, and strong 9 to 5 accumulation shows us that buyers have outnumbered sellers in the base. Looking of the stock to complete this handle this week and follow the money higher.
Volume: 143.457K Avg Volume: 353.756K
BUY POINT: $28.21 Volume=528K Target=$34 Stop=$27.48
POSITION: TUH KE - Nov. $25c (75 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/trmb.html
End part 2 of 3
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us stock market
stock split
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