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us stock market, stock recommendation
Begin part 2 of 2
Support and Resistance
NASDAQ: Closed at 1844.48
Resistance:
The 50 day EMA at 1870
May 2004 lows (1876 closing, 1865 intraday) may prove to be some resistance.
The 50 day SMA 1878
The March 2004 lows (1897 - 1989)
The 2004 down trendline at 1922
The 200 day SMA at 1969
Support:
The October 2002/March 2003 up trendline at 1842
The 18 day EMA at 1842
July 2003 highs at 1755
Late July 2003 top at 1735.
June 2003 intraday highs at 1686 to closing range at 1644 to 1677 (mid-July low here as well).
S&P 500: Closed at 1113.63
Resistance:
The March/April down trendline at 1118
1125 was key price support.
1142-1146 are the June highs.
The April and January highs (1150 to 1155).
1159 (February highs) and 1160 to 1175 the highs in that double top that spanned late 2001, early 2002.
Support:
The 200 day SMA at 1112
The 50 day EMA at 1101.
1096 to 1100 represent price support.
The 18 day EMA at 1100
May low at 1084 (closing) to 1076 (intraday).
1080 (May and July lows).
1062 - 1058 from November 2003
Dow: Closed at 10260.20
Resistance:
Late April, June peaks at 10,478 to 10,512
10,570 is the early April high
Price consolidation at 10,600 level
10,747 is the February high
Support:
The 200 day SMA at 10,264
The 50 day EMA at 10,130
The 18 day EMA at 10,131
The February/April down trendline at 10,074
9783 to 9793, the August lows.
9625 - 9660 from September 2003.
9500 from various price points in late summer to fall 2003.
Economic Calendar
These are consensus expectations. Our expectations will vary and are discussed in the 'Economy' section.
September 8
Consumer Credit, July (3:00): $7.5B expected and $6.6B prior
September 9
Export Prices ex-ag., August (8:30): 0.6% prior
Import Prices ex-oil, August (8:30): 0.1% prior
Initial Jobless Claims, 09/04 (8:30): 362K prior
Wholesale Inventories, July (10:00): 0.6% expected and 1.1% prior
September 10
Trade Balance, July (8:30): -$51.6B expected and -$55.8B prior
PPI, August (8:30): 0.2% expected and 0.1% prior
Core PPI, August (8:30): 0.1% expected and 0.1% prior
THE PLAYS
Good moves Friday: AVN; KMRT; MDCC; SOSA
Best Plays:
1) ADEX: Diving lower on rising volume.
2) POWI: Turning down at the 50 day EMA on rising trade.
3) LIFC: Lots of volume and momentum in a sector that performed well Friday.
4) AVO: A market leader that looks ready to start again.
5) DRAX: Volume starting to improve late in the week.
6) JAKK: Volume really starting to jump.
7) OMN: Ready for the breakout move.
8) AMSG: Doji below the 18 day EMA.
NEW PLAYS:
Downside:
Play Date: 09/04/2004
ADEX (Ade Corp.--$17.16; -1.44; optionable): Semiconductor equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/adex.html
STATUS: Put. In the market rally ADEX jumped up to the 200 day SMA (19.70), but it stalled there and faded. On the INTC news it gapped lower Friday, moving below the 50 day EMA (18.11) on rising, above average volume. Looking for a move down to the August low near 15 to give us a 55%ish gain.
Volume: 154.91K Avg Volume: 118.27K
BUY POINT: $16.98 Volume=175K Target=$15.15 Stop=$17.18
POSITION: QDE VW - Oct. $17.50p (-51 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/adex.html
Play Date: 09/04/2004
POWI (Power Integrations--$19.08; -1.46; optionable): Semiconductor integrated circuit
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/powi.html
After Hours: $19.07
STATUS: Put. In a steady downtrend since last October. POWI has worked down the 10 and 18 day EMA all during the downtrend. It has come up for air at the 50 day EMA (20.92) as the market rallied the past month. It has been unable to break through that key level during the rally, and Friday it broke lower back below the 10 and 18 day EMA (19.91, 19.84) on rising, above average volume. Money flow is diving before it and stochastics and MACD are crossing over and moving down. Ready to fall toward August low and give us a 50%ish gain.
Volume: 548.725K Avg Volume: 459.791K
BUY POINT: $18.97 Volume=500K Target=$17.45 Stop=$19.21
POSITION: QPW VD - Oct. $20p (-68 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/powi.html
Upside:
Play Date: 09/04/2004
AVO (Advanced Medical Optics--$37.80; -0.30; optionable): Medical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/avo.html
STATUS: Cup. AVO is a market leader, and it is currently working on the right side of its 9 week base. Even before it surges up the right side, accumulation is already at 3 to 1, showing buyers moving into the stock already. Money flow is also excellent, continuing to move higher ahead of the stock. Good volume Tuesday as it started higher, and we are looking for a return of that volume as it starts higher this week.
Volume: 208.2K Avg Volume: 695.339K
BUY POINT: $38.45 Volume=1M Target=$44 Stop=$37.87
POSITION: AVO AG - Jan. $35c (74 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/avo.html
Play Date: 09/04/2004
LIFC (Lifecell--$9.30; +0.45; optionable): Biotechnology
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/lifc.html
STATUS: Double bottom. Volume surged Friday as LIFC jumped over the 50 day EMA (8.96). This starts the breakout move from a 10 week double bottom pattern we call a 'flying W' where the right leg does not undercut the left. There is a reason it did not; the 200 day SMA (8.11) is working as support for the base. Accumulation is already positive as it comes off the bottom of the pattern, already in good shape as it runs higher toward the recent highs at 11.50. Money flow is surging ahead of price, and LIFC is ready to follow it.
Volume: 797.457K Avg Volume: 326.14K
BUY POINT: $9.47 Volume=450K Target=$11.49 Stop=$9.32
POSITION: QKL LU - Dec. $7.50c (88 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/lifc.html
Play Date: 09/04/2004
VRNT (Verint Systems--$32.43; -0.67; optionable): Business software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/v/vrnt.html
STATUS: Cup. Volume jumped Wednesday and Thursday as VRNT started to move up and form the right side of its 9 week base. Accumulation is a strong 3 to 0 even before it really starts its move higher; solid already. Eased back on very light volume Friday, and it may form a handle here for a few more sessions before it starts back up. Want to be ready for the high volume breakout.
Volume: 50.939K Avg Volume: 143.987K
BUY POINT: $33.28 Volume=216K Target=$38 Stop=$32.88
POSITION: JOQ KF - Nov. $30c (76 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/vrnt.html
CONTINUING PLAYS:
Play Date: 08/18/2004
DECK (Deckers Outdoor--$29.43; -0.07; no options): Footwear
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/deck.html
After Hours: $29.75
STATUS: Ascending triangle. Still working on the 20 week triangle, the intraday range tightening up on low, below average volume. The stock continues to move higher up the 50 day EMA (28.67), making higher lows below the more or less constant top at 31. Solid 5 to 3 accumulation in the pattern. A top stock, but we need to see a strong volume breakout to take positions as DECK moves to an all-time high.
Volume: 149.482K Avg Volume: 330.973K
BUY POINT: $31.54 Volume=550K Target=$36.55 Stop=$29.95
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/deck.html
Play Date: 08/28/2004
DRAX (Draxis Health--$4.65; -0.09; no options): Drug products
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/drax.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. And DRAX continues to work on the handle to its 23 week base. Volume jumped Thursday, and DRAX looked ready to make the breakout move. It backed off on the close and again Friday, moving on very low, below average volume. Strong money flow is leading higher ahead of price. Accumulation is solid at 4 to 2. Just waiting for price to surge as the stock makes the breakout move.
Volume: 73.876K Avg Volume: 148.138K
BUY POINT: $4.78 Volume=226K Target=$5.75 Stop=$4.45
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/drax.html
Play Date: 09/01/2004
JAKK (Jakks Pacific--$20; +0.24; optionable): Toys and games
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/jakk.html
STATUS: Flat. Volume surged to start last week and was up again Friday as JAKK started higher toward the breakout. Still a very nice 12 week base over the 50 day EMA (19.34), and showing signs it is ready to make the breakout move. Strong 3 to 0 accumulation in the base shows all buyers. Money flow continues to rally ahead of price. Like the higher volume Friday. Just watching for the breakout this week.
Volume: 359.314K Avg Volume: 318.135K
BUY POINT: $20.89 Volume=474K Target=$24 Stop=$19.63
POSITION: UFF LD - Dec. $20c (48 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/jakk.html
Play Date: 08/30/2004
LSTR (Landstar System--$53.35; 0.00; optionable): Trucking
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/lstr.html
After Hours: $52.97
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Solid shot of volume Wednesday, but LSTR could not hold the breakout move. Thursday and Friday volume backed off as LSTR moved laterally, holding onto its jump off the 50 day EMA (50.72). Money flow continues to run higher ahead of price and relative strength is ready to breakout, a very good sign the stock is a strong market leader. Excellent 4 to 1 accumulation in its 9 week base. Watching for the stock to clear the recent highs on more strong volume.
Volume: 159.933K Avg Volume: 229.078K
BUY POINT: New: $53.72 (orig. $52.45) Volume=334K Target=$59 Stop=$50.98
POSITION: QRY AJ - Jan. $50c (65 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/lstr.html
Play Date: 08/30/2004
OMN (Omnova Solutions--$6.18; -0.02; no options): Specialty chemicals
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/o/omn.html
STATUS: Flat. OMN surged to 6.53 Friday, but then gave the entire move back to close basically flat. Volume was up but still below average, not enough to hold the move. Still a very nice 11 week base sporting excellent 5 to 1 accumulation. The current base follows a series of flat bases since mid-2003. It looks ripe to make breakout move. Want to see that volume surge as it makes the move through the buy point.
Volume: 77.9K Avg Volume: 94.588K
BUY POINT: $6.29 Volume=137K Target=$7.56 Stop=$5.85
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/omn.html
Play Date: 08/21/2004
PLMD (Polymedica--$30.52; -0.35; optionable): Drugs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/plmd.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. PLMD was moving up for the breakout last week, but volume faded as the week wound down, and Friday it fell back to the 10 day EMA (30.40) on very low trade. Still a very nice 9.5 month base sporting outstanding 11-2 accumulation. Money flow continues to rise ahead of price. A good rest to end the week, and now it is ready to make the move. May take a couple more sessions to set up, but as the market turns defensive on a test, it is in a good sector.
Volume: 94.224K Avg Volume: 234.399K
BUY POINT: Breakout: $31.12 Volume=357K Target=$35.55 Stop=$29.75
POSITION: PM LF - Dec. $30c (50 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/plmd.html
Downside:
Play Date: 08/28/2004
AMSG (Amsurg Corp.--$22.87; +0.03; optionable): Hospitals
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/amsg.html
After Hours: $22.87
STATUS: Put. AMSG continued to rally on up through the 18 day EMA (22.41), showing some decent volume Wednesday. That volume faded Thursday and Friday, and AMGS showed a doji below the 50 day EMA (23.24). That often signals the momentum has changed in a move. AMSG is still in a downtrend with weak money flow and heavy distribution. Still looking for it to roll over from here on stronger volume to move into positions. All this move higher has done is set up a better downside entry point.
Volume: 85.633K Avg Volume: 274.664K
BUY POINT: $22.35 Volume=300K Target=$20.55 Stop=$22.54
POSITION: KKO VX - Oct. $22.50p (-53 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/amsg.html
CONTINUING PLAY TABLE:
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http://www.technicaltraders.com/ttr/table.php
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http://www.investmenthouse.com/rescue/rescue.php3
LEGEND
DATE: date play first appeared on report.
PLAY: Denotes the type of pattern or play.
Upside play types: Asc Tri=Ascending triangle/wedge; BO=Breakout; Cup=Cup base; Cup hdl=Cup w/handle; DB hdl=Double bottom w/handle; Dbl btm=Double bottom; Flat=Flat base; FlyPlat=Flying Plateau; Pennant=Pennant; Rv H&S=Reverse head & shoulders; Saucer=Saucer base; Test 18=Testing 18 day MVA; Test 50=Testing 50 day MVA; Test BO=Testing the breakout (could be 10 day MVA test, etc.)
Downside play types: CCall=Covered Call; Dsc Tri=Descending triangle/wedge; Dbl Top=Double top; H&S=Head & shoulders; Put (generic downside);
PIVOT=Buy point
Tgt=Target stock price for the play. Applies to stock and options.
Vol=Volume for the most recent session.
TgtV=Target volume to enter the play.
Stop=Stop advisory point. This is advisory and we may or may not exit a play if it hits this level depending upon market conditions.
Upside Plays
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
AEOS 07/27 Flat 36.06 -0.4 31.18 36.32 1.8M 2.3M 35.89
Current. Pullback on much lower, below average volume. Still in uptrend.
AGYS 08/14 Test BO 15.58 -0.08 15.16 17.84 156K 276K 15.24
Current. Volatile session tapping 15.16 at the intraday low and rallied back showing a doji on much lower, below average volume. Making a lateral move.
AVN 08/28 Test BO 2.94 +0.1 2.51 3.64 1M 1M 2.78
Current. Another great move up the 10 day MVA on lower, but still strong volume making a 52 week high.
BG 08/27 Cup hdl 39.74 -0.26 40.77 46 734K 900K 39.67
Current. Pullback testing the simple 50 day MVA intraday and rallied back holding the 18 day MVA on stronger above average volume. Showed strength in coming off the day's low, but will need to hold here or will exit.
CEDC 08/23 DB hdl 24.51 -0.25 25.35 29.55 42K 245K 23.88
Buy Not Issued. Pullback holding the 10 day MVA on very low volume. Still in good shape.
CHTT 08/27 Cup 31.24 +0.47 30.35 34.72 103K 258K 30.55
Current. Continue to move up the 10 day MVA making a 52 week high on rising, but below average volume.
CLF 08/16 Cup hdl 68.29 +0.17 66.14 74 129K 454K 66.32
Current. Moving up the 10 day MVA on lower, below average volume. Broke through some resistance at 68.
CSAR 08/26 Test BO 16.35 -0.35 16.55 19.38 135K 175K 16.45
Current. Gapped down tapping 16.18 intraday on lower, but average volume. Testing the breakout. May test back to 16 (10 day MVA)
CSAR 08/16 Test BO 16.35 -0.35 15.21 17.72 135K 175K 16.45
Current.
DECK 08/18 Asc Tri 29.43 -0.07 31.54 36.55 149K 550K 29.95
Buy Not Hit. Making a lateral move on the 18 day MVA on low volume.
DGX 09/01 DB hdl 86.31 -0.51 86.38 97 233K 852K 84.98
Current. Ease back on lower, below average volume. Testing the breakout. May test back to support at 86.
DRAX 08/28 Cup hdl 4.65 -0.09 4.78 5.75 74K 226K 4.45
Buy Not Issued. Gapped down to open on the 10 day MVA intraday and managed to recover some of the loss on very low volume. Came off the day's high of 4.75. Still in good shape. Waiting for a follow through on Thursday's breakout move.
DUSA 08/25 DB hdl 11.96 -0.04 11.15 13.25 127K 310K 11.62
Current. Volatile session tapping 11.48 intraday and rallied back showing a doji on very low, below average volume. Making lateral move.
ESL 07/24 Cup hdl 28.53 -4.15 30.88 35.22 813K 150K 31.48
Exited. Gapped down below the 50 day MVA and continued to tank on very strong volume surge.
EXBD 08/28 Test BO 59.14 -0.02 58.69 63.58 89K 250K 58.22
Current. Ease back tapping 48.87 at the low and rallied back holding above the 10 day MVA on lower, below average volume. Still in good shape.
GENZ 08/24 Cup hdl 54.01 -1.05 53.43 60 1.1M 3.2M 53.55
Current. Ease back on lower, below average volume. Still in good shape.
GIVN 09/01 Flat 38.72 -0.62 37.25 42.45 158K 431K 38.25
Current. Gapped up at the open, but gave it back on lower, below average volume. still in uptrend.
ISRG 08/09 Test BO 26.95 +0.61 22.71 26.05 537K 400K 26.59
Current. Tapped 25.86 at the low and rallied back for a great move up the 10 day MVA on lower, but slightly above average volume.
ISSC 08/23 Test BO 27.48 +0.17 27.04 31.48 78K 300K 26.82
Current. Tapped 26.65 at the low and rallied back on very low volume as stock begins to make a lateral move.
ISSC 08/11 Asc Tri 27.48 +0.17 23.88 27.55 78K 300K 26.32
Current.
JAKK 09/01 Flat 20 +0.24 20.89 24 359K 474K 19.63
Buy Not Hit. Tested the simple 50 day MVA intraday and rallied back showing a doji on stronger above average volume. Holding a some resistance.
JUPM 08/14 Asc Tri 14.39 0 14.15 17.22 170K 513K 15.47
Trailing Stop. Making a lateral move just above the 18 day MVA on low volume.
KMRT 08/18 Dbl btm 82.08 +2.69 80.22 92 3.9M 3.6M 80.89
Current. Nice move up the 10 day MVA on stronger above average volume making a new high.
LSTR 08/30 DB hdl 53.35 0 53.76 59.42 160K 334K 52.22
Buy Not Issued. New buy point. It looks ready but needs a good volume push.
MDCC 08/31 Test 18 23.98 +0.56 23.93 26.95 193K 300K 23.22
Entered today. Nice move up the 10 day MVA on rising, but slightly below average volume.
METH 08/21 Cup 12.68 -0.31 13.75 16.48 94K 196K 13.45
Buy Not Issued. Gapped up at the open, then reversed holding just above the 50 day MVA on lower volume. Stock has not made the move we were looking for so will drop.
MRVL 09/01 DB hdl 22.87 -1.12 24.05 28 5.5M 8.2M 23.65
Buy Not Issued. Tapped 23.70 at the high, but reversed holding the 50 day MVA on stronger above average volume. The stock has not performed so will drop.
MVSN 09/01 DB hdl 22.35 -0.57 24.07 27.22 409K 677K 23.45
Buy Not Hit. Continue to move down below the 50 day MVA on average volume. The stock has not made the move we were looking for so will drop.
NUS 08/11 Test BO 26.13 -0.17 26.39 30.42 178K 475K 25.88
Buy Not Issued. New buy point. Holding up well and setting up for
the next break higher.
OMN 08/30 Flat 6.18 -0.02 6.29 7.56 78K 137K 5.85
Buy Not Issued. Tapped 6.53 at the high, but gave it all back on rising, but below average volume. did not enter the play, because of stock pullback off the high and volume was not there. Need a clear decisive move before we will enter.
PD 08/25 Cup hdl 82.05 -0.15 81.88 87.48 983K 2.8M 81.97
Exited. Sold off early and we closed it out. Will be ready,
however, if it starts back up. It can rally fast.
PHRM 08/25 Dbl btm 49.43 -0.21 49.85 57.75 157K 773K 48.98
Current. Pullback on very low volume. Still in uptrend.
PLMD 08/21 Cup hdl 30.52 -0.35 31.21 35.44 94K 357K 30.29
Buy Not Issued. New buy point as it sets up nicely for a breakout.
PMTI 08/23 Dbl btm 18.82 -0.15 18.44 21.95 118K 222K 18.24
Current. Volatile session tapping 18.10 at the low and rallied back on lower, below average volume. Still in good shape.
QCOM 09/02 FlyPlat 38.49 -0.33 38.82 45 9.1M 11M 37.59
Current. Pullback tapping 38.04 at the low and rallied back showing a doji on low volume. Holding at some support. Still moving up the 10 day MVA.
SHFL 09/01 Cup 32.22 -1.43 34.57 39.55 1.9M 934K 33.95
Buy Not Hit. Tanked holding the 50 day MVA on very strong volume surge. The stock has not performed so will drop.
SOSA 07/15 Cup hdl 4.42 +0.14 3.48 4.38 847K 500K 4.24
Current. Another great move up the 10 day MVA on strong volume.
TDS 08/02 FlyPlat 79.29 -0.41 77.46 82.38 126K 265K 78.55
Current. Pullback on rising, but below average volume. Testing the breakout. May test back to the 10 day MVA.
UTHR 09/02 Test 18 30.77 -0.02 31.12 35.35 154K 650K 30.42
Buy Not Hit. Making a lateral move on very low volume.
YHOO 09/02 Cup 29.46 -0.37 30.36 35 13M 2.5M 29.87
Buy Not Hit. Tapped 30.31 at the high, but gave it back on lower, below average volume. Still in good shape.
ZBRA 08/25 Dbl btm 58.1 -0.81 56.45 60 203K 425K 57.05
Current. Pullback on low volume. Testing the breakout. May test back to 57.15.
Downside Plays
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
AMSG 08/28 Put 22.87 +0.03 22.35 20.55 86K 300K 22.54
Buy Not Issued. New buy point as it shows a low volume doji below the 50 day MA.
ATRX 08/28 Put 29.26 -0.13 29.25 27.35 158K 700K 29.33
Current. Beginning to make a lateral move under the 10 day MVA on rising, but below average volume.
DV 08/30 Put 20.67 +0.4 19.45 18 430K 400K 19.85
Exited. Rallied above the 18 day MVA on rising, but below average volume.
PTEK 08/26 Put 8.9 +0.09 8.58 7.28 299K 725K 8.98
Current. Making a lateral move on the 10 day MVA on low volume.
RSAS 08/24 Put 15.94 +0.46 15.88 13.71 1.7M 935K 15.05
Exited. Volatile session. Gapped up at the open showing a doji on stronger above average volume.
TEVA 08/21 Put 26.32 +0.3 27.34 25.35 4.8M 4.5M 26.88
Gapped up at the open, but could not hold the gain on lower, below average volume. Came off the day's low of 25.80. Still in downtrend.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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