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us stock market, trade stock
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good moves Tuesday: CME; KMRT; MET; POOL; RIMM; SNDA; TZOO; MBT
In each report we prepare full write-ups for those plays that look ready to move. Those that have made the move or are still setting up are discussed in the continuing play table. The purpose is to focus on those stocks that are set to make us money.
NEW PLAYS:
New Leader Plays:
Play Date: 09/07/2004
STLD (Steel Dynamics--$34.20; +1.86; optionable): Steel & iron
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/stld.html
After Hours: $34.10
STATUS: Breakout. Volume surged as STLD broke out from an 8 week triangle that formed over the 50 day EMA (30.43), making higher and higher lows above that level. Accumulation in the base is positive at 2 to 1, indicating net buyers as it took a breather from another good breakout in June. Relative strength is making the breakout as well, a good corroboration of the price move. Looking to start positions on a further move higher on some good trade and then again on a successful test.
Volume: 1.722M Avg Volume: 748.318K
BUY POINT: $34.38 Volume=750K Target=$39 Stop=$33.55
POSITION: RQL BG - Feb. $35c (50 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/stld.html
Play Date: 09/07/2004
MRCY (Mercury Computer Systems--$27.10; -0.21; optionable): Telecom equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mrcy.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Forming a very nice, low volume handle the past three weeks, moving laterally as the 18 day EMA (26.71) rising to meet the stock. A nice 32 week base sporting strong 7 to 4 accumulation; shows net buying during the base and setting the stage for the next breakout and run. Money flow is stellar, racing higher ahead of price even as it moves laterally to form this handle where the last sellers get frustrated and sell out. Looking for volume to shoot back above volume as it moves through the buy point.
Volume: 97.839K Avg Volume: 144.136K
BUY POINT: $28.06 Volume=216K Target=$32 Stop=$27.05
POSITION: QYR KE - Nov. $25c (76 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/mrcy.html
New Downside Plays:
Play Date: 09/07/2004
ADTN (Adtran--$25.85; +0.32; optionable): Telecom equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/adtn.html
STATUS: Put. Under pressure after the June rally failed. ADTN rallied with the market off the August low, but it stalled at the 50 day SMA (26.60) last week as volume jumped back above average. It has sold back to the 18 day EMA (25.60) on low volume. Money flow is in the tank and still falling. Looking for ADTN to break the 18 day on rising volume to move in.
Volume: 297.338K Avg Volume: 1.073M
BUY POINT: $25.55 Volume=1M Target=$23.47 Stop=$26.02
POSITION: RQA VX - Oct. $25p (-40 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/adtn.html
Continuing Downside Plays:
Play Date: 09/04/2004
ADI (Analog Devices--$33.78; -0.39; optionable): Semiconductors
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/adi.html
STATUS: Put. Still struggling below the 18 day EMA (35.48), fading some Tuesday but on lower, below average volume. Still looks very weak and ready to follow the diving money flow lower. Relative strength is in the grave. Still looks ready to plunge.
Volume: 4.197M Avg Volume: 4.476M
BUY POINT: New: $33.68 (orig. $33.98) Volume=4.8M Target=$31.95 Stop=$34.22
POSITION: ADI VG - Oct. $35p (-60 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/adi.html
Play Date: 09/04/2004
PXLW (Pixelworks--$9.72; +0.07; optionable): Semiconductor integrated circuits
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pxlw.html
After Hours: $9.72
STATUS: Put. Dropped hard on the INTC news Friday, falling below the 18 day EMA (10.00). Tuesday it checked up the move but showed a doji below that important level. Looks ready to resume the move lower after coming up to the 50 day EMA for some aire after a trend lower down the 10 and 18 day EMA. After this low volume rise it looks ready to turn back over. Looking to enter on a resumption of the selling this week for a 65%ish gain.
Volume: 1.059M Avg Volume: 1.301M
BUY POINT: $9.53 Volume=1.4M Target=$8 Stop=$9.78
POSITION: PUO VB - Oct. $10p (-57 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/pxlw.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
Current Pre-Announcement Plays: In each report we look at the candidates that are in the best patterns ahead of their potential announcements. This focus on leaders in good patterns allows us to make good money even if companies do not announce the split. The key with splits is the pattern. Still gat positive moves on the announcement, but stocks in this market need to have a good pattern of accumulation to really benefit from a split announcement.
AET: Moving laterally over the 10 day EMA testing the break higher. Volume is starting to rise; it is getting ready.
BMET: Forecast 9-18-04.
BOL: Forecast 10-20-04
CME: Forecast 10-20-04
CMI: Forecast 10-12-04
EBAY: Forecast 10-20-04.
FAST: Rough day.
FDX: Forecast 9-22-04
HDI: Forecast 10-13-04
KMRT: Another nice break higher. Researching next possible date, but enjoying the move.
MBT: Announced earnings Wednesday but no split. Still moving higher.
MIK: Researching next possible date.
NCEN: Forecast to announce a split on 10-5-04
PENN: Researching to pinpoint a date.
RL: Forecast 9-13-04 at a board meeting.
SCSC: Forecast 10-12-04.
STN: Forecast 10-28-04
UTX: Forecast 10-20-04.
Full Write-ups: We do not cover all candidates in full in each report, but focus on those ready to make a move or are right at their forecast announcement date. This way we are focused on those stocks ready to make moves.
New Pre-Announcement Plays:
Play Date: 09/07/2004
TTC (Toro--$69.00; +1.64; optionable): Lawn care equipment. Forecast to announce a split 9-21-04 in conjunction with a board meeting.
BACKGROUND: Last announce a 2 for 1 split on 3-20-03 in conjunction with a board meeting at a stock price of $70.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/ttc.html
STATUS: Cup. TTC is moving toward a breakout from its 10 week cup base that formed roughly at the 50 day EMA (64.79). Accumulation is solid at 2 to 0, and money flow is rallying ahead of price. Volume has been moving higher the past week and was up again Tuesday as it cleared some resistance. Looking to start a position on a continued volume move then add to positions on a successful test.
Volume: 268.2K Avg Volume: 234.681K
BUY POINT: $69.35 Volume=300K Target=$79 Stop=$68.38
POSITION: TTC LN - Dec. $70c (48 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ttc.html
Continuing Pre-Announcement Plays
Play Date: 09/04/2004
STN (Station Casinos--$46.60; -0.07; optionable): Resorts and casinos. Forecast to announce a split on 10-28-04 before the market opens in conjunction with earnings.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3 for 2 split in June 2000 at approximately $27. The annual shareholder meeting was on 5-21-03 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/stn.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Still working on the handle to its 12 week base, moving laterally over the 10 day EMA (45.99). Volume has started to move higher the past week as it works laterally over that support. A good breakout in January from another 12 week cup with handle base sent the stock from 32.50 to 50. We have set an initial target at 54, but if it is showing the right action, we will let it run further; it can always deliver another good June-like move. Want to see that volume continue to expand.
Volume: 332.8K Avg Volume: 513.09K
BUY POINT: $46.89 Volume=781K Target=$54 Stop=$45.78
POSITION: STN AI - Jan. $45c (66 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/stn.html
Play Date: 08/28/2004
SCSC (Scansource--$60.95; -0.04; optionable): Wholesale computers. Tentatively forecast to announce a split 10-12-04 after the market closes in conjunction with earnings, but still researching.
After Hours: $60.98
BACKGROUND: Last split its stock 2:1 in January 2003 at a price of $60.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/scsc.html
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. Another doji over the 18 day EMA (60.04) as volume creeps higher in its 8 week base. Strong 4 to 0 accumulation as it forms the right shoulder to the base. Money flow remains strong as well. A nice base-on-base pattern as SCSC broke out from a 5.5 month cup base in late June. These combinations tend to really work out the sellers and leave nothing but buyers. Still looks solid and volume is creeping higher. Looks to be crouching for the breakout.
Volume: 113.348K Avg Volume: 150.909K
BUY POINT: $61.88 Volume=236K Target=$69 Stop=$59.22
POSITION: UHI LL - Dec. $60c (61 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/scsc.html
PRE-SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 09/02/2004
ANSS (Ansys--$45.64; +0.21; optionable): Technical and system software. Splits 2:1 on 10-8-04
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/anss.html
STATUS: Still working laterally along the 50 day EMA (44.67) the past three weeks in a nice, tight range. Volume jumped to end last week as ANSS tested some resistance at 46. it has backed off but showed a doji Tuesday, holding over the 50 day on the lows. Excellent money flow is leading higher ahead of price, and we are looking for ANSS to break through the buy point on another strong surge fo volume as seen last week.
Volume: 42.37K Avg Volume: 79.909K
BUY POINT: $46.35 Volume=120K Target=$52 Stop=$45.38
POSITION: QUS AI - Jan. $45c (61 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/anss.html
POST SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 09/04/2004
CTSH (Cognizant Technology--$27.4; -0.09; optionable): Business software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/ctsh.html
After Hours: $27.31
STATUS: Cup. Volume was up to average as CTSH showed another doji over the 10 day EMA (27.19). It continues to work toward the breakout from its 30 week cup base sporting strong 8 to 4 accumulation. Solid buying during the base and setting the foundation for a breakout. Volume has been very low this summer as it worked higher. Needs very good volume on the breakout move.
Volume: 1.232M Avg Volume: 1.276M
BUY POINT: $28.12 Volume=1.6M Target=$38.25 Stop=$27.55
POSITION: UPU AY - Jan. $27.50c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ctsh.html
Play Date: 08/31/2004
DHR (Danaher--$51.34; +0.41; optionable): Building materials
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dhr.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Volume was up above average Tuesday as DHR moved toward the breakout but then backed off on the close. Still a really sweet little 9 week base forming over the 50 day EMA (49.79). Excellent 5 to 0 accumulation in the pattern with money flow surging higher ahead of the price. Volume has been jumping the past week; looks ready to move to the breakout.
Volume: 1.523M Avg Volume: 1.266M
BUY POINT: $51.74 Volume=1.5M Target=$57 Stop=$50.22
POSITION: DHR LJ - Dec. $50c (71 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/dhr.html
Play Date: 08/28/2004
KRON (Kronos--$42.94; +0.92; optionable): Human resources, payroll, scheduling and time and labor solution software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/k/kron.html
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. Still working the 18 day EMA (41.85) on the low, but rebounding off that level Tuesday on stronger though still below average volume. Edging up the breakout from its 13 week base with strong money flow leading the way. Now it just needs to show some volume to take it to a strong all-time high breakout.
Volume: 143.997K Avg Volume: 224.909K
BUY POINT: $43.32 Volume=362K Target=$49 Stop=$41.88
POSITION: KUE AI - Jan. $45c (45 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/kron.html
Play Date: 08/28/2004
TRMB (Trimble Navigation--$27.42; +0.18; optionable): Scientific & technical instruments (guidance systems for commercial and government projects and many other 21st century applications)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/trmb.html
After Hours: $27.40
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Another nice doji over the 18 day EMA (27.09) as TRMB continues forming the low volume handle to its 8.5 month base. It continues to go about its own business, still working on the handle even as the rest of the market bounced. It id going to do things at its own pace. Money flow continues to rally ahead of price, and strong 9 to 5 accumulation shows us that buyers have outnumbered sellers in the base. Just a matter of time before it completes the handle and gives us the high volume breakout move.
Volume: 210.443K Avg Volume: 348.59K
BUY POINT: $28.21 Volume=528K Target=$34 Stop=$27.48
POSITION: TUH KE - Nov. $25c (75 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/trmb.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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