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stock recommendation, stock option
Begin part 3 of 3
We apologize for the late delivery of part 3. We experienced data errors that had to be corrected to give accurate analysis.
THE PLAYS
Good moves Wednesday: POWI; PTEK; SVU
Best Plays:
1) CNQR: Falling from the 50 day EMA on rising volume.
2) MERQ: Tanking on rising trade.
3) CSGP: Nice base set up.
4) NUS: Volume is moving higher. Right sector for this market.
5) YHOO: Quietly moving higher.
6) AMSG: Rolling over on rising volume.
NEW PLAYS:
Downside:
Play Date: 09/08/2004
CNQR (Concur Technologies--$9.80; -0.35; optionable): Technical and system software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cnqr.html
STATUS: Put. Rallied off the August lows and ran right smack into the 200 day SMA (10.62). That stalled the move. It faded back to the 50 day EMA (10.12) and then Wednesday tanked on rising volume below that support. Looking to ride it back down for a solid 60%ish gain.
Volume: 123.649K Avg Volume: 182.818K
BUY POINT: $9.74 Volume=200K Target=$8.24 Stop=$9.94
POSITION: JCQ VB - Oct. $10c (-53 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/cnqr.html
Play Date: 09/08/2004
MERQ (Mercury Interactive--$33.07; -1.55; optionable): Technical and system software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/merq.html
After Hours: $33.18
STATUS: Put. MERQ continues its struggles. A small bounce in August failed just over the 18 day EMA (34.94), and it slid back on lower trade. Wednesday volume jumped as it started what looks to be a new leg lower. Very weak money flow leading lower. Looking for continued solid volume on a further move lower to provide a 50%ish gain.
Volume: 4.923M Avg Volume: 2.798M
BUY POINT: $32.94 Volume=2.8M Target=$30.88 Stop=$33.42
POSITION: RQB VG - Oct. $35p (-74 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/merq.html
Upside:
Play Date: 09/08/2004
CSGP (Costar Group--$44.72; +0.65; optionable): Business software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/csgp.html
After Hours: $44.72
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Volume jumped Wednesday as CSGP jumped as well, getting ready for the breakout move from its 10 week base. Excellent 4 to 1 accumulation in the base that formed using the 200 day SMA (40.51) as support. Money flow is running higher ahead of price, and it looks as if CSGP is ready to follow it.
Volume: 204.359K Avg Volume: 102.136K
BUY POINT: $45.12 Volume=155K Target=$50.32 Stop=$43.25
POSITION: CQY AI - Jan. $45c (53 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/csgp.html
Play Date: 09/08/2004
DRS (DRS Technologies--$36.86; -0.43; optionable): Defense electronic products and systems
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/drs.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. We are calling this 9 week pattern a double bottom, but it is solid whatever you call it. Strong 3 to 0 accumulation in the pattern shows net buyers and money moving in even as it bases following that huge breakout in early July. Making a higher low over the 10 day EMA (36.74), and we are looking for that to provide the setup for the breakout.
Volume: 104.8K Avg Volume: 364K
BUY POINT: $37.88 Volume=546K Target=$43 Stop=$36.67
POSITION: DRS LG - Dec. $35c (69 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/drs.html
CONTINUING PLAYS:
Play Date: 08/28/2004
DRAX (Draxis Health--$4.76; -0.07; no options): Drug products
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/drax.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. At the top of the range of its 3 week handle. Started to show some better volume the past week as it moves toward the breakout from its 23 week base. Strong money flow still moving higher ahead of price, setting the stage for the breakout along with strong 4 to 2 accumulation.
Volume: 93.721K Avg Volume: 142.318K
BUY POINT: $4.78 Volume=226K Target=$5.75 Stop=$4.45
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/drax.html
Play Date: 08/11/2004
NUS (Nu Skin--$26.65; +0.26; optionable): Drugs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nus.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Volume jumped finally, and it looks as if NUS is ready to resume the breakout move. A 6 week lateral move on low volume and in a very narrow range. This move follows the breakout from a 15 week base in late July. Looks as if it is finally wringing out the last sellers.
Volume: 667.1K Avg Volume: 374.954K
BUY POINT: New: $26.88 (orig. $26.39) Volume=475K Target=$30.42 Stop=$25.88
POSITION: NUS LE - Dec. $25c (62 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/nus.html
Play Date: 09/07/2004
PRXL (Parexel Intl.--$19.99; -0.24; optionable): Biopharmaceutical services (marketing, clinical research, etc.)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/prxl.html
After Hours: $20
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Volume was up again Wednesday as PRXL continued moving laterally at the breakout point in its 12 week base. A breakout puts it to an all-time high. It started the break higher last week, but no volume went with it. Now it is getting some volume. Solid money flow and positive 3 to 2 accumulation shows net buying. Looking for that volume to continue higher as PRXL as it moves through the buy point.
Volume: 128.317K Avg Volume: 106.863K
BUY POINT: $20.54 Volume=176K Target=$24.48 Stop=$19.62
POSITION: VBQ LD - Dec. $20c (50 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/prxl.html
Play Date: 09/04/2004
VRNT (Verint Systems--$32.15; -0.3; optionable): Business software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/v/vrnt.html
STATUS: Cup. Easing back a bit further toward the 10 day EMA (31.80), the third day of a handle forming to the 10 week base. Strong 3 to 0 accumulation, solid money flow. Another stock that hits a new high on a breakout from this nice pattern. Volume has been improving the past week, and we are looking for that to propel VRNT to a breakout over the next few sessions.
Volume: 75.04K Avg Volume: 142.277K
BUY POINT: $33.28 Volume=216K Target=$38 Stop=$32.88
POSITION: JOQ KF - Nov. $30c (76 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/vrnt.html
Play Date: 09/02/2004
YHOO (Yahoo!--$30.38; +0.74; optionable): Internet portal
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/y/yhoo.html
After Hours: $30.41
STATUS: Cup. Volume was up Wednesday as YHOO looks ready to start its move up the right side of the 9 week cup base that is forming. Positive 4 to 3 accumulation already at this stage of the base, a good sign. Looking for it to continue the move on even better volume.
Volume: 18.84M Avg Volume: 20.329M
BUY POINT: New: $30.55 (orig. $30.36) Volume=25M Target=$35 Stop=$29.87
POSITION: YHQ AZ - Jan. $30c (53 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/yhoo.html
Downside:
Play Date: 09/04/2004
ADEX (Ade Corp.--$17.66; -0.15; optionable): Semiconductor equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/adex.html
After Hours: $17.67
STATUS: Put. Tapped the 50 day EMA (18.08) on the high and then faded to close just below the 18 day EMA (17.71). Volume was very low; no major reversal Wednesday. After stalling at the 200 day SMA (19.67) in August, it looks to be doing the same here at the 50 day EMA. Looking for it to roll over on some rising volume. Looking for a move down to the August low near 15 to give us a 55%ish gain.
Volume: 87.281K Avg Volume: 116.181K
BUY POINT: $16.98 Volume=175K Target=$15.15 Stop=$17.18
POSITION: QDE VW - Oct. $17.50p (-51 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/adex.html
Play Date: 08/28/2004
AMSG (Amsurg Corp.--$22.44; -0.56; optionable): Hospitals
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/amsg.html
After Hours: $22.87
STATUS: Put. Made another stab at the 50 day EMA (23.20) Wednesday and then rolled over on rising volume. Money flow is low and is rolling over again. Heavy distribution continues. It closed just below the 10 day EMA (22.50), and we anticipate it to continue lower.
Volume: 274.643K Avg Volume: 265.954K
BUY POINT: $22.35 Volume=300K Target=$20.55 Stop=$22.54
POSITION: KKO VX - Oct. $22.50p (-53 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/amsg.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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stock recommendation
stock option
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