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us stock market, stock recommendation
Begin part 2 of 2
THE PLAYS
Good moves Thursday: CLF; STLD; VRNT; CAND
NEW PLAYS:
Downside:
Play Date: 09/09/2004
ACDO (Accredo Health--$24.6; +1.01; optionable): Specialized healthcare
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/acdo.html
After Hours: $24.56
STATUS: Put. ACDO has made a low volume rebound from a massive gap down to end August. The move this month has taken the stock back to the 18 day EMA (24.77); it broke through that level Thursday on strong volume, but then reversed to close below it. This has the look of a reversal session after the low volume rebound. It has also filled the gap from late August. This follows a long drop starting in early July. In short, ACDO is weak. Money flow remains in the tank and the stock has been under heavy distribution. Looking for a nice 60%ish gain at the target.
Volume: 2.077M Avg Volume: 986.828K
BUY POINT: $23.88 Volume=1.1M Target=$21.75 Stop=$24.22
POSITION: DZU VE - Oct. $25p (-53 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/acdo.html
Upside:
Play Date: 09/09/2004
MVSN (Macrovision--$24.05; +1.06; optionable): Business software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mvsn.html
After Hours: $24.06
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Taking another look at MVSN as it has made a test of the 200 day SMA (22.07), forming a handle to its 11 week base sporting excellent 4 to 1 accumulation. Super money flow is leading higher. Volume jumped to average Thursday as MVSN moved toward the breakout. It looks ready to make a solid move.
Volume: 492.241K Avg Volume: 455.527K
BUY POINT: $24.22 Volume=677K Target=$27.32 Stop=$23.84
POSITION: MVU AX - Jan. $22.50c (67 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/mvsn.html
Play Date: 09/09/2004
NCOG (NCO Group--$26.00; +0.40; optionable): Outsourced accounts receivable management
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/ncog.html
After Hours: $25.91
STATUS: Cup. NCOG has formed a 9 week cup following a 9 month double bottom with handle. That prior base sported outstanding 10 to 2 accumulation, showing solid buying during the entire consolidation. This last small cup works to shake out the last sellers. Volume was surging Thursday, and NCOG looks ready to give us the breakout.
Volume: 242.085K Avg Volume: 137.72K
BUY POINT: $26.32 Volume=235K Target=$30 Stop=$25.65
POSITION: GCQ LE - Dec. $25c (68 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ncog.html
CONTINUING PLAY TABLE:
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http://www.technicaltraders.com/ttr/table.php
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http://www.investmenthouse.com/rescue/rescue.php3
LEGEND
DATE: date play first appeared on report.
PLAY: Denotes the type of pattern or play.
Upside play types: Asc Tri=Ascending triangle/wedge; BO=Breakout; Cup=Cup base; Cup hdl=Cup w/handle; DB hdl=Double bottom w/handle; Dbl btm=Double bottom; Flat=Flat base; FlyPlat=Flying Plateau; Pennant=Pennant; Rv H&S=Reverse head & shoulders; Saucer=Saucer base; Test 18=Testing 18 day MVA; Test 50=Testing 50 day MVA; Test BO=Testing the breakout (could be 10 day MVA test, etc.)
Downside play types: CCall=Covered Call; Dsc Tri=Descending triangle/wedge; Dbl Top=Double top; H&S=Head & shoulders; Put (generic downside);
PIVOT=Buy point
Tgt=Target stock price for the play. Applies to stock and options.
Vol=Volume for the most recent session.
TgtV=Target volume to enter the play.
Stop=Stop advisory point. This is advisory and we may or may not exit a play if it hits this level depending upon market conditions.
Upside Plays
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
AEOS 07/27 Flat 35.89 -0.4 31.18 36.32 1.7M 2.3M 35.89
Trailing Stop.
AGYS 08/14 Test BO 16 +0.12 15.16 17.84 280K 276K 15.44
Current.
AVN 08/28 Test BO 2.86 +0.03 2.51 3.64 744K 1M 2.78
Current.
AVO 09/04 Cup 39.59 +1.04 38.49 44.12 310K 1M 38.28
Current.
CAND 09/09 Flat 3.2 +0.41 3.15 4 554K 277K 2.98
Entered today. Bonus alert. We had watched CAND form the 11 week flat base showing strong 4:1 accumulation. Saw the volume
break higher & issued an alert.
CHTT 08/27 Cup 31.87 -0.03 30.35 34.72 146K 258K 30.98
Current.
CLF 08/16 Cup hdl 74.11 +2.52 66.14 74 398K 454K 73.35
Target Hit.
CSAR 08/26 Test BO 17 +0.32 16.55 19.38 114K 175K 16.45
Current.
CSAR 08/16 Test BO 17 +0.32 15.21 17.72 114K 175K 16.45
Current.
CSGP 09/08 DB hdl 44.86 +0.14 45.12 50.32 58K 155K 43.25
Buy Not Issued.
DECK 08/18 Asc Tri 32.46 -0.01 31.54 36.55 599K 550K 29.95
Current.
DRAX 08/28 Cup hdl 4.88 +0.12 4.78 5.75 156K 226K 4.45
Buy Not Issued.
DRS 09/08 Flat 37.25 +0.39 37.88 43 112K 546K 36.67
Buy Not Hit.
EXBD 08/28 Test BO 59 -0.48 58.69 63.58 210K 250K 58.22
Current.
GIVN 09/01 Flat 38.04 -0.29 37.25 42.45 108K 431K 38.25
Current.
ISSC 08/23 Test BO 27.14 -0.7 27.04 31.48 560K 300K 26.82
Current.
ISSC 08/11 Asc Tri 27.14 -0.7 23.88 27.55 560K 300K 26.32
Current.
JAKK 09/01 Flat 20.49 -0.5 21.07 24.18 565K 474K 20.39
Current.
KMRT 08/18 Dbl btm 80.99 -0.59 80.22 92 1.7M 3.6M 82.65
Current.
LIFC 09/04 Dbl btm 9.79 +0.24 9.63 11.59 150K 450K 8.44
Current.
LSTR 08/30 DB hdl 55.16 +0.48 53.76 59.42 238K 334K 52.22
Buy Not Issued.
MDCC 08/31 Test 18 24.01 -0.17 23.93 26.95 173K 300K 23.22
Current.
NUS 08/11 Test BO 26.82 +0.17 26.39 30.42 288K 475K 25.88
Buy Not Issued.
OMN 08/30 Flat 6.3 +0.25 6.29 7.56 103K 137K 5.85
Buy Not Issued.
PHRM 08/25 Dbl btm 48.24 -0.51 49.85 57.75 847K 773K 48.98
Exited.
PMTI 08/23 Dbl btm 21.94 -0.25 18.44 21.95 316K 222K 21.55
Current.
PRXL 09/07 DB hdl 19.79 -0.2 20.54 24.48 110K 176K 19.62
Buy Not Hit.
QCOM 09/02 FlyPlat 39.65 +0.14 38.82 45 15M 11M 37.59
Current.
SOSA 07/15 Cup hdl 4.1 +0.01 3.48 4.38 1M 500K 4.24
Current.
STLD 09/07 BO 35.42 +0.91 34.62 39 2.7M 750K 33.97
Current.
TDS 08/02 FlyPlat 79.31 +0.01 77.46 82.38 162K 265K 78.55
Current.
UTHR 09/02 Test 18 30.55 -0.2 31.12 35.35 316K 650K 30.42
Buy Not Hit.
VRNT 09/04 Dbl btm 34 +1.85 33.58 38.36 252K 216K 33.98
Entered today.
WSO 09/07 DB hdl 30.06 +0.36 30.08 34.94 125K 150K 29.24
Current.
YHOO 09/02 Cup 30.49 +0.11 30.36 35 16M 25M 29.87
Buy Not Issued.
ZBRA 08/25 Dbl btm 59.39 +1.2 56.45 60 388K 425K 57.98
Current.
Downside Plays
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
ADEX 09/04 Put 18.39 +0.73 16.98 15.15 107K 175K 17.18
Buy Not Hit.
AMSG 08/28 Put 22.6 +0.16 22.35 20.55 445K 300K 22.54
Current.
ATRX 08/28 Put 29.17 +0.14 29.25 27.35 219K 700K 29.33
Current.
CNQR 09/08 Put 10.07 +0.27 9.74 8.24 51K 200K 9.94
Buy Not Hit.
MERQ 09/08 Put 32.68 -0.39 32.45 30.46 4.5M 2.8M 33.42
Entered today. Sold off hard early but then mananged a rebound to
recoup most of the losses. Still weak, rallying in
the short covering move in the rest of the market.
POWI 09/04 Put 19.01 +0.4 18.72 17.22 782K 500K 19.21
Current.
SVU 09/07 Put 26.61 -0.1 26.88 25.32 724K 850K 26.96
Current.
TEVA 08/21 Put 27.52 +0.01 27.34 25.35 2.6M 4.5M 26.88
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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