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us stock market, stock split
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good moves Thursday: BOL; CTSH; RIMM; SNDA; SONC; STLD; TZOO
In each report we prepare full write-ups for those plays that look ready to move. Those that have made the move or are still setting up are discussed in the continuing play table. The purpose is to focus on those stocks that are set to make us money.
NEW PLAYS:
New Pre-Split Plays:
Play Date: 09/09/2004
VLO (Valero Energy--$69.76; +3.06; optionable): Oil and gas refining. Splits 2:1 on 10-8-04
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/v/vlo.html
After Hours: $69.74
STATUS: Cup. A pre-split showing a lot of momentum with two strong volume spikes in the past three sessions. VLO peaked in July and gave us a nice downside play. It found support at 65 where it consolidated and formed the bottom of the current 7 week pattern. It has started jumping to form the right side of the base, and we are looking to catch the momentum as it runs up the right side of the pattern.
Volume: 2.946M Avg Volume: 2.316M
BUY POINT: $70.21 Volume=3M Target=$76 Stop=$68.89
POSITION: VLO LO - Dec. $70c (58 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/vlo.html
Play Date: 09/09/2004
CELG (Celgene--$57.23; +0.75; optionable): Drugs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/celg.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. A nice 10 week base has formed over the 200 day SMA (49.56), setting up for a breakout move. Solid 5 to 3 accumulation shows net buyers during the base and sets the foundation for a breakout. Volume surged Thursday with the split announcement and pushed CELG up toward the breakout point. Looking for another strong volume move through the breakout point.
Volume: 2.897M Avg Volume: 1.16M
BUY POINT: $58.22 Volume=1.7M Target=$65 Stop=$57.44
POSITION: LQH AL - Jan. $60c (48 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/celg.html
New Leader Plays:
Play Date: 09/09/2004
CREE (Cree, Inc.--$25.78; +1.35; optionable): Specialized semiconductor equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cree.html
After Hours: $25.71
STATUS: Cup w/handle. We have been watching CREE form up a nice 7.5 month base despite the carnage in the overall chip sector. The past three weeks it has formed a nice flat handle to that base. Accumulation is a strong 7 to 3, showing buyers moving into the stock during the long consolidation. Solid money flow is leading higher. Volume jumped well above average Thursday as it jumped higher and moved toward the breakout. Looks solid.
Volume: 2.795M Avg Volume: 1.923M
BUY POINT: $26.11 Volume=2.9M Target=$30 Stop=$25.65
POSITION: CQR LE - Dec. $25c (61 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cree.html
Play Date: 09/09/2004
RAE (Rae Systems--$5.99; +0.31; optionable): Rapid deployment multi-sensor chemical detection monitors
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/rae.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Volume has started to race higher the past week as RAE forms a small handle to its 5 month base sporting strong 7 to 3 accumulation and surging money flow that is racing ahead of price. Very strong with relative strength showing a positive divergence, ready to breakout; a bullish indicator. Very good looking.
Volume: 616.5K Avg Volume: 323.905K
BUY POINT: $6.12 Volume=486K Target=$7.42 Stop=$5.78
POSITION: RAE LA - Dec. $5c (78 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/rae.html
Continuing Leader Plays:
Play Date: 09/07/2004
MRCY (Mercury Computer Systems--$27.09; +0.22; optionable): Telecom equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mrcy.html
After Hours: $26.97
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Still working on the three week handle to its nice 32 week base sporting strong 7 to 4 accumulation. Lots of buying ongoing during the base is setting the stage for the next breakout and run. Money flow is stellar, racing higher ahead of price even as it moves laterally to form this handle where the last sellers get frustrated and sell out. Looking for volume to shoot back above volume as it moves through the buy point.
Volume: 120.108K Avg Volume: 144.218K
BUY POINT: $28.06 Volume=216K Target=$32 Stop=$27.05
POSITION: QYR KE - Nov. $25c (76 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/mrcy.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
Current Pre-Announcement Plays: In each report we look at the candidates that are in the best patterns ahead of their potential announcements. This focus on leaders in good patterns allows us to make good money even if companies do not announce the split. The key with splits is the pattern. Still gat positive moves on the announcement, but stocks in this market need to have a good pattern of accumulation to really benefit from a split announcement.
AET: Moving laterally over the 10 day EMA testing the break higher. Volume is starting to rise; it is getting ready.
BMET: Forecast 9-18-04.
BOL: Forecast 10-20-04
CME: Forecast 10-20-04
CMI: Forecast 10-12-04
EBAY: Forecast 10-20-04.
FAST: Rough day.
FDX: Forecast 9-22-04
HDI: Forecast 10-13-04
KMRT: Another nice break higher. Researching next possible date, but enjoying the move.
MBT: Announced earnings Wednesday but no split. Still moving higher.
MIK: Researching next possible date.
NCEN: Forecast to announce a split on 10-5-04
PENN: Researching to pinpoint a date.
RL: Forecast 9-13-04 at a board meeting.
SCSC: Forecast 10-12-04.
STN: Forecast 10-28-04
TTC: Forecast 9-21-04
UTX: Forecast 10-20-04.
Full Write-ups: We do not cover all candidates in full in each report, but focus on those ready to make a move or are right at their forecast announcement date. This way we are focused on those stocks ready to make moves.
New Pre-Announcement Plays:
Play Date: 09/09/2004
WWY (William Wrigley Jr.--$63.56; +0.59; optionable): Gum. Researching the date, but a great pattern and good volume.
BACKGROUND: Last split 2:1 in March 2001 at $85.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wwy.html
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. Volume has been jumping the past two weeks and Thursday it really spiked as WWY moved toward the breakout from its 13 week base. May not be sexy, but the pattern has formed well and a breakout pushes it to an all-time higher where there are no disgruntled shareholders. Money flow is really starting to run, and the volume spikes it has been showing are telling us to 'get ready' for a breakout.
Volume: 879.6K Avg Volume: 455.285K
BUY POINT: $64.11 Volume=683K Target=$68 Stop=$62.82
POSITION: WWY LM - Dec. $65c (50 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/wwy.html
Continuing Pre-Announcement Plays
Play Date: 09/04/2004
HDI (Harley-Davidson--$61.99; -0.46; optionable): Big bikes
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hdi.html
STATUS: Test breakout. HDI is coming back to the 10 day EMA (61.78) to test the low volume breakout from its 11 week cup with handle base. It never showed us much volume as it started the breakout move. After this test we will see if the volume comes back in on a resumption of the break higher. Money flow continues to lead higher.
Volume: 1.02M Avg Volume: 1.428M
BUY POINT: $62.74 Volume=2M Target=$69 Stop=$61.15
POSITION: HDI AL - Jan. $60c (71 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/hdi.html
PRE-SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 09/02/2004
ANSS (Ansys--$45.53; +0.57; optionable): Technical and system software. Splits 2:1 on 10-8-04
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/anss.html
After Hours: $45.52
STATUS: Volume jumped Thursday as ANSS tapped the 50 day EMA (44.72) on the low and rebounded for a decent gain. Still in the range between the 50 day and 46, but with money flow leading higher as the stock moves laterally and volume starting to really jump the past week, we anticipate a breakout coming soon.
Volume: 78.27K Avg Volume: 80.175K
BUY POINT: $46.35 Volume=120K Target=$52 Stop=$45.38
POSITION: QUS AI - Jan. $45c (61 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/anss.html
POST SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 08/31/2004
DHR (Danaher--$51; +0.06; optionable): Building materials
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dhr.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. DHR continues moving laterally over the 18 day EMA (50.52) as it continues working on the handle to its 9 week base. The base formed over the 50 day EMA (49.88), showing solid support for the stock. Excellent 5 to 0 accumulation in the pattern with money flow moving higher ahead of the price.
Volume: 1.077M Avg Volume: 1.29M
BUY POINT: $51.74 Volume=1.5M Target=$57 Stop=$50.22
POSITION: DHR LJ - Dec. $50c (71 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/dhr.html
Play Date: 08/28/2004
TRMB (Trimble Navigation--$27.45; +0.49; optionable): Scientific & technical instruments (guidance systems for commercial and government projects and many other 21st century applications)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/trmb.html
After Hours: $27.48
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Continues its lateral move over the 50 day EMA (26.49) as volume moves up to average. Requiring patience as it works on the handle to its 8.5 month base. Money flow continues to rally ahead of price, and strong 9 to 5 accumulation shows us that buyers have outnumbered sellers in the base. Solid but waiting is the hardest part.
Volume: 346.05K Avg Volume: 349.716K
BUY POINT: $28.21 Volume=528K Target=$34 Stop=$27.48
POSITION: TUH KE - Nov. $25c (75 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/trmb.html
Play Date: 09/02/2004
YHOO (Yahoo!--$30.49; +0.11; optionable): Internet portal
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/y/yhoo.html
After Hours: $30.52
STATUS: Cup. Continues to move up off the 50 day EMA (29.24). Volume looked pretty decent Wednesday, but Thursday it started to back off. Coming off of the bottom of its 9 week base, starting the right side of the pattern. Looking for more volume as it continues the move.
Volume: 16.368M Avg Volume: 20.305M
BUY POINT: New: $30.78 (orig. $30.36) Volume=25M Target=$35 Stop=$29.87
POSITION: YHQ AZ - Jan. $30c (53 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/yhoo.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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us stock market
stock split
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