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us stock market, stock recommendation
Begin part 2 of 2
Economic Calendar
These are consensus expectations. Our expectations will vary and are discussed in the 'Economy' section.
September 13
Treasury Budget, August (2:00): -$40.0B expected and -$76.6B prior
September 14
Current Account, Q2 (8:30): -$158.7B expected and -$144.9B prior
Retail Sales, August (8:30): -0.1% expected and 0.7% prior
Retail Sales ex-auto, August (8:30): 0.2% expected and 0.2% prior
September 15
Business Inventories, July (8:30): 0.7% expected and 0.9% prior
NY Empire State Index, September (8:30): 20.0 expected and 12.6 prior
Industrial Production, August (9:15): 0.5% expected and 0.4% prior
Capacity Utilization, August (9:15): 77.4% expected and 77.1% prior
September 16
CPI, August (8:30): 0.2% expected and -0.1% prior
Core CPI, August (8:30): 0.2% expected and 0.1% prior
Initial Claims, 09/11 (8:30): 346K expected and 319K prior
Philadelphia Fed, September (12:00): 25.0 expected and 28.5 prior
September 17
Michigan Sentiment-Preliminary., September (9:45): 97.0 expected and 95.9 prior
THE PLAYS
Good moves Friday: AVN; CREE; HANS; PMTI; RAE; SCSC; SYMC; WITS
Thursday night play results:
ACDO: Doji below the 18 day EMA on low volume. Has filled gap and run out of gas.
CREE: Explosive breakout move.
RAE: Solid volume break higher.
VLO: Testing the 50 day EMA on low volume. Looks ready to bounce into its split.
THE PLAYS
Downside:
Play Date: 09/11/2004
AAP (Advance Auto Parts--$36.22; -0.55; optionable): Auto parts stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/aap.html
STATUS: Put. AAP rallied up to the 50 day EMA (37.59) in the recent rally, but unlike the indexes and other key stocks, it was unable to break through. It rolled lower to end the week, tapping some support at 36 on the low. Weak money flow and under distribution. Looking for it to crack below the support for a nice 52%ish gain to the target.
Volume: 1.047M Avg Volume: 849.056K
BUY POINT: $35.97 Volume=852K Target=$34.45 Stop=$36.15
POSITION: AAP VG - Oct. $35p (-35 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/aap.html
Play Date: 09/11/2004
AGN (Allergan--$73.90; -1.25; optionable): Drugs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/agn.html
STATUS: Put. AGN rallied to the 50 day EMA (76.32) with the market, but it was one of the stocks that was unable to make the breakthrough. It stalled and faded, then Friday it broke below the 18 day EMA (74.29) on the strongest volume in three weeks. Weak money flow is leading lower. Looking for a slide lower to deliver a solid 40%ish gain.
Volume: 822.2K Avg Volume: 853.635K
BUY POINT: $73.73 Volume=950K Target=$71.48 Stop=$74.38
POSITION: AGN VO - Oct. $75p (-55 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/agn.html
Upside:
Play Date: 09/11/2004
BEN (Franklin Resources--$55.01; +1.47; optionable): Asset Management
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/ben.html
After Hours: $55.05
STATUS: Cup w/handle. The financials have held up very well, and BEN looks super. An 8 month base sporting excellent 10 to 4 accumulation (10 up price weeks on rising volume to 4 down price weeks on rising volume) shows net buyers and has set up a nice foundation for the breakout. Can give us a nice gain on a run back up to the high in the pattern. That is our initial target; if it is rallying hard we will take some gain and let some run.
Volume: 769.2K Avg Volume: 791.595K
BUY POINT: $55.24 Volume=1M Target=$60 Stop=$53.97
POSITION: BEN AK - Jan. $55c (55 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/ben.html
Play Date: 09/11/2004
VIP (Vimple Communication--$104.25; -0.01; optionable): Russian wireless communications
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/v/vip.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. VIP made is some excellent money on its recent run, and when we took the gain on the October options we said we would look for the next test as another change to enter. VIP has eased back toward the 10 day EMA (101.73), but holding easily over that level and showing a doji on the candlestick chart Friday. It may come on back to further test the 10 day, but given the doji and the stock's ability to hold its gain, we want to be ready to enter if it starts right back up from here. A very nice 5 month base is setting up for the next break higher.
Volume: 344.2K Avg Volume: 414.664K
BUY POINT: $105.25 Volume=600K Target=$115.55 Stop=$102.44
POSITION: VIP AA - Jan. $105c (53 delta) or VIP JA - Oct. $105c (49 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/vip.html
Play Date: 09/11/2004
WCN (Waste Connections--$30.35; +0.50; optionable): Waste management
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wcn.html
STATUS: Breakout. WCN showed us a breakout move of sorts to start the month though volume was anemic. It failed and fell back to the 18 day EMA (29.42) but this time found purchase. It shot higher Friday on strong volume, making the breakout from its 10 week cup with handle base. Strong 4 to 2 accumulation shows net buyers during the base. Money flow is screaming higher. Ready to make the next run higher.
Volume: 421.7K Avg Volume: 287.391K
BUY POINT: $30.48 Volume=350K Target=$34 Stop=$29.55
POSITION: WCN AF - Jan. $30c (61 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/wcn.html
CONTINUING PLAY LIST
* * SPREADSHEET DOWNLOAD * * *
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http://investmenthouse.com/ihalerts/table.php
You will need your password. If you need help click on this link and our automated system will email it to you immediately once you fill in your email address:
http://www.investmenthouse.com/rescue/rescue.php3
LEGEND FOR CONTINUING PLAY TABLE
DATE: date play first appeared on report.
PLAY: Denotes the type of pattern or play.
Upside play types: Asc Tri =Ascending triangle; BO=Breakout; Cup=Cup base; Cup hdl=Cup w/handle; DB hdl=Double bottom w/handle; Dbl btm=Double bottom; Flat=Flat base; FlyPlat=Flying Plateau; Pennant=Pennant; Rv H&S=Reverse head & shoulders; Saucer=Saucer base; Test 18=Testing 18 day MVA; Test 50=Testing 50 day MVA; Test BO=Testing the breakout (could be 10 day MVA test, etc.)
Downside play types: CCall=Covered Call; Dsc Tri=Descending triangle; Dbl Top=Double top; H&S=Head & shoulders; Put (generic downside);
PIVOT=Buy point
Tgt=Target stock price for the play. Applies to stock and options.
Vol=Volume for the most recent session.
TgtV=Target volume to enter the play.
Stop=Stop advisory point. This is advisory and we may or may not exit a play if it hits this level depending upon market conditions.
PLAY STATUS: Buy not hit (stock has not hit buy point); Buy not issued (stock has hit buy point but did not enter due to weak volume, poor intraday action, poor market action); Current (ongoing play already entered); Entered today (entered the play that session); Exited (closed the position); Target hit (play hit initial target; will note if took all or partial gain or let run further); Trailing stop (exited using a trailing stop loss).
Upside Plays
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
AGYS 08/14 Test BO 16.21 +0.21 15.16 17.84 211K 276K 15.67
Current. Tested the 10 day MVA intraday and rallied back showing a tight doji as stock continues to move up the 10 day MVA on lower, but average volume.
AH 09/08 DB hdl 36.82 +0.03 37.58 42.75 247K 1M 36.45
Buy Not Hit. Continue with lateral move on very low volume.
ANSS 09/02 PreSplt 46.4 +0.87 46.35 52 55K 120K 45.38
Buy Not Issued. Bounced off the 10 day MVA on lower, below average volume. Did not enter the play, because volume was not there. Still a buy if continues the move on Monday with strong volume.
AVL 09/07 Cup 21.4 -0.06 21.52 24.68 99K 175K 20.97
Buy Not Issued. Now it has made the test of the breakout & has filled the gap on low volume. Looks ready to resume the move.
AVN 08/28 Test BO 3.01 +0.15 2.51 3.64 2M 1M 2.78
Current. Gapped up at the open and continued to move up the 10 day MVA for a great move on excellent volume surge. Made a 52 week high.
BEAV 08/10 Test BO 11.52 +0.03 10.29 12.38 187K 600K 11.07
Current. Continue with uptrend on low volume.
BGC 08/07 Cup hdl 10.89 +0.02 10.29 12.38 138K 581K 10.68
Current. Tested the 10 day MVA intraday and rallied back showing a doji on low volume. Making a lateral move.
BOL 08/26 DB hdl 67.83 -0.57 67.85 73.48 467K 578K 66.82
Current. Pullback on lower, but still strong volume. May test back to the 10 day MVA (67)
CLF 08/16 Cup hdl 73.8 -0.31 66.14 74 275K 454K 73.35
Current. Pullback on lower, below average volume. Still in uptrend.
CME 08/24 DB hdl 144.15 -0.47 141.15 155 408K 928K 142.97
Current. Making a lateral move on lower, below average volume.
CREE 09/09 Cup hdl 27.9 +2.12 26.78 30.75 5.6M 2.9M 26.89
Entered today. Explosive move on very strong volume surge.
CSAR 08/26 Test BO 17 0 16.55 19.38 59K 175K 16.45
Current. Tapped 16.73 at the low and rallied back showing a tight doji on very low volume. Making a lateral move at some resistance.
CSAR 08/16 Test BO 17 0 15.21 17.72 59K 175K 16.45
Current.
CSGP 09/08 DB hdl 45.84 +0.98 45.12 50.32 36K 155K 43.25
Buy Not Issued. Gapped down to open on the 10 day MVA and made a fierce rally on lower, below average volume. Did not enter because volume was not there. Will drop the stock for now and let test back.
CTSH 09/04 Cup 29.2 +0.3 28.98 39.25 1.2M 1.6M 28.54
Current. Tapped 28.70 at the low and rallied back on lower, but average volume. Continue with uptrend.
CWTR 08/30 Test BO 20.81 -0.04 20.39 24.22 115K 400K 20.18
Current. Tapped 20.29 at the low and rallied back on very low volume as stock makes a lateral move above the 10 day MVA.
DKS 09/01 Rv H&S 33.5 +0.48 33.44 38.24 421K 1.1M 32.31
Current. Tapped 32.59 at the intraday low and rallied back on rising, but below average volume. Still in the pattern.
DO 08/31 Cup hdl 27.93 -0.25 25.48 29 2.2M 1.3M 27.15
Current. Tapped 28.48 at the high, but gave some of it back showing a doji on lower, but still strong volume. Still in uptrend.
DRS 09/08 Flat 37.18 -0.07 37.88 43 169K 546K 36.67
Buy Not Hit. Tested the 10 day MVA showing a doji on low volume. Making a lateral move.
EBAY 08/31 DB hdl 90.07 +2.16 88.05 99.94 9M 14M 87.44
Current. Bounced off the 10 day MVA and rallied back for a nice gain on lower, but below average volume. Moving up after testing the breakout.
ECIL 08/28 Cup hdl 7.24 +0.19 7.38 8.88 244K 450K 6.86
Buy Not Issued. Tapped 6.90 at the low and rallied back for a nice gain on rising, but average volume. Holding at some resistance here. Looking good.
GIVN 09/01 Flat 36.8 -1.24 37.25 42.45 754K 431K 38.25
Trailing Stop. Tapped 40.55 at the high, but reversed hard closing below the 10 day MVA on very strong volume.
HANS 09/01 Cup hdl 28.48 +2.09 26.12 30 497K 550K 26.95
Current. Tested the 10 day MVA and rallied for a great move on stronger above average volume.
INSP 08/18 Cup 42.25 +0.62 38.38 43.55 710K 1.5M 40.12
Current. Continue with uptrend on low volume.
KMRT 08/18 Dbl btm 82.77 +1.78 80.22 92 1.9M 3.6M 82.65
Current. Moving up on rising, but below average volume after testing the 10 day MVA. Still in the pattern.
LIFC 09/04 Dbl btm 9.75 -0.04 9.63 11.59 129K 450K 9.57
Current. Making a lateral move on low volume.
LLL 09/04 Cup hdl 64.3 +0.56 64.41 72.45 478K 1.2M 62.97
Buy Not Issued. Tested the 10 day MVA intraday and rallied back on low volume. Looking good.
MBT 08/07 Cup 143.35 +1.55 122.65 135 286K 500K 142.32
Current. Continue with uptrend on lower, below average volume.
MDCC 08/31 Test 18 23.85 -0.16 23.93 26.95 81K 300K 23.38
Current. Pullback holding the 10 day MVA on very low volume. Still in good shape.
NUS 08/11 Test BO 26.8 -0.02 27.05 31 238K 475K 26.38
Buy Not Issued. Tested the 10 day MVA and rallied back showing a tight doji on low volume. Making a lateral move.
OCAS 08/31 Asc Tri 20.55 -0.18 20.12 23.12 141K 358K 20.32
Current. Pullback on lower, below average volume. Still in the pattern.
PMTI 08/23 Dbl btm 23.19 +1.25 18.44 21.95 507K 222K 22.32
Current. Tapped 21.70 at the low and rallied back for a nice gain on stronger above average volume.
PPDI 07/24 Test BO 35.35 +0.16 35.72 41.74 399K 650K 34.65
Buy Not Issued. Still solid. Forming a nice handle here, & we moved
up the buy point to allow for that handle and a new
breakout point.
QCOM 08/31 FlyPlat 39.49 -0.16 38.82 45 13M 11M 37.98
Current. Making a lateral move on lower, below average volume.
QCOM 08/14 Flat 39.49 -0.16 35.42 40.48 13M 11M 37.98
Current.
RAE 09/09 DB hdl 6.14 +0.15 6.12 7.42 1M 486K 5.92
Entered today. Tapped 5.85 at the low and rallied back for a great move on excellent volume surge. Did come off the high of 6.30.
RIMM 08/21 Dbl btm 68.09 +1.41 63.52 72 6.3M 10M 66.78
Current. Continue to move up the 10 day MVA for a nice gain on below average volume.
ROK 08/03 Asc Tri 39 -0.62 38.08 43.95 900K 1.3M 38.75
Current. Thudded down tapping 38.36 at the low and made a fierce rally back holding the 10 day MVA on stronger above average volume. May test back to the 18 day MVA.
SAPE 08/09 Test BO 8.1 +0.21 7.04 8.54 1.9M 1.5M 7.68
Current. Tested the 10 day MVA intraday and rallied back for a nice move making a 52 week high on stronger above average volume.
SCSC 08/28 Test BO 66.22 +2.35 63.88 70 233K 236K 64.98
Current. Explosive move up the 10 day MVA on stronger above average volume.
SKX 09/02 Asc Tri 14.55 +0.15 14.28 17 367K 270K 13.88
Current. Continue with uptrend for a nice gain on lower, but still strong volume.
SNDA 07/31 Cup hdl 24.19 -0.65 19.51 23.32 482K 500K 23.68
Current. Pullback on lower, below average volume. Still in uptrend.
STLD 09/07 BO 35.77 +0.35 34.62 39 1.6M 750K 34.88
Current. Continue to move up the 10 day MVA showing a doji on much lower, but strong volume.
SYMC 08/10 DB hdl 50.84 +1.53 47.83 53.88 4.8M 7.6M 49.72
Current. Tested the 10 day MVA intraday and rallied back for an explosive move on stronger above average volume.
TDS 08/02 FlyPlat 80.25 +0.94 77.46 82.38 46K 265K 79.24
Current. Moving up on very low volume holding at some resistance. Moving up on lower volume after testing the 10 day MVA.
UTHR 09/02 Test 18 31.54 +0.99 31.12 35.35 370K 650K 30.42
Buy Not Issued. Bounced off the 18 day MVA on low volume. Did not enter the play, because volume was not there. Will let the stock test back.
VLO 09/09 Cup 68.69 -1.07 70.21 76 2.3M 3M 68.89
Buy Not Hit. Pullback testing the 50 day MVA intraday and rallied back on lower, but average volume. Still in the pattern.
WBSN 08/14 Cup hdl 39.95 +0.48 39.58 43.45 448K 735K 38.46
Current. Tested the 10 day MVA intraday and rallied back on lower, below average volume. Holding at some resistance.
WITS 08/21 Flat 15.39 +0.49 14.76 17.48 1.4M 459K 14.85
Current. Another great move up the 10 day MVA on very strong volume.
ZBRA 08/19 Dbl btm 59.43 +0.04 56.43 60 379K 425K 58.45
Current. Volatile session. Making a lateral move on low volume.
Downside Plays
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
AAI 09/08 Put 11.61 +0.56 11.15 9.88 2.2M 1.4M 11.42
Current. Moving up holding the 18 day MVA on lower, but still strong volume. Needs to hold here.
ACDO 09/09 Put 24.49 -0.11 23.88 21.75 1.2M 1.1M 24.22
Buy Not Hit. Making a lateral move just under the 18 day MVA on lower, but average volume.
ANN 08/30 Put 25.18 +1.09 24.15 22.57 2.3M 1.2M 23.88
Current. Gapped up at the open and rallied testing the 50 day MVA intraday, but could not hold the gain on strong volume. May test resistance at 25.30
ATRX 08/28 Put 29.73 +0.56 29.25 27.35 92K 700K 29.33
Current. Extremely low volume test of 18 day MA. Obviously rallying
w/market in general melt higher late Friday. With no
volume we expect it to fail at this level.
CNQR 09/08 Put 10.23 +0.16 9.74 8.24 136K 200K 9.94
Buy Not Hit. Moving up on rising, but below average volume holding above the 10 day MVA. The stock has not made the move we were looking for so will drop.
POWI 09/04 Put 20.48 +1.47 18.72 17.22 1M 500K 19.21
Exited. Rallied on very strong volume surge.
PXLW 09/04 Put 9.78 +0.03 9.45 8 873K 1.4M 9.78
Current. Making lateral move on the 10 day MVA on low volume.
SVU 09/07 Put 27.05 +0.44 26.88 25.32 629K 850K 26.96
Current. Low volume rally holding under the 18 day MVA. May test the 18 day MVA and fail.
SYY 09/08 Put 32.7 -0.01 32.55 31 1.7M 2.2M 32.78
Buy Not Issued. Showing a tight doji on the 18 day MVA as stock makes a lateral move on lower, below average volume.
TEVA 08/21 Put 27.37 -0.15 27.34 25.35 2.4M 4.5M 26.88
Making a lateral move on the 10 day MVA on low volume. Struggling to get through this key resistance.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your IH Alerts Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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